Roster slots on the 53, as of 3/17

[Fencer]

Here's how it currently looks, IMO:

K/P/LS -- always 3
QB -- 2
RB/FB -- 4, not counting Mills, unless there's a draft choice
TE -- 4, counting Mills
OL -- 9 (sorry, Mruck), unless there's a draft choice
WR -- 6 (welcome home, Troy)

That leaves room for only 25 on defense.

DE -- 4, counting Mike Wright, unless there's a draft choice (sorry, Mr. Hill)
NT -- 2 or more
OLB -- 4 or more,counting Vrabel and Thomas
ILB -- 4 or more, counting Izzo
S -- 5 or more -- currently Harrison, Wilson, Hawkins, Sanders, Mitchell/Baker/Andrews
CB -- 4 or more -- currently Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Scott, (Spann)

Absent reductions at other slots, whether for injury or other reasons, there are only 2 slots for all my "and mores", or even fewer if a draft choice nabs a spot elsewhere. I think one pretty much has to be a DB, and I also don't think 6 DL is a comfortable number.

So if anybody is added through the draft on offense, I think there has to be an offensive cut to balance him (or an IR situation). And except for Britt and Brown, I don't think there's anybody in much obvious danger of being cut.

Well, Mills or one of the WRs could screw up ...

 

[unoriginal]

I like your thinking on the two QB thing. They'll stash someone on the PS early, and sign a veteran late after the obligatory IR listings. The 10th DB is more important than the 3rd QB in September.

 

[kas]

Nice look. A few thoughts...

WR: I don't think Troy is back. If he is, IMO it will be midway through the season if injuries hit at the position. I don't think we keep 6 and Chad Jackson to start the year. Save the extra roster spot for defense. As for any new WR additions, I expect a late day 2 pick but that's it. BB seems to like keeping speed/burner guys on the ps. They probably help with scout team work, and maybe they'll develop.

DL: IMO there's no way we don't keep 7. We rotate constantly to keep everyone fresh. We have 5 quality guys. Although I doubt we go DL early (maybe Carriker if he slips but that's about it), I could definitely see a DL or two added on late day 1 or day 2 to compete with Hill/Smith/Thomas for the last 2 roster spots or a possible practice squad stay.

I think you have to look at DB and LB together, as the backups will be the heart of our ST unit. With 24 on O, 3 ST, and 7 DL that leaves 19 guys. Here are the locks (9):
LB: Colvin, Vrabel, Bruschi, Thomas
DB: Harrison, Hobbs, Samuels, Sanders, Wilson

Now I think it's safe to say that Gay, Scott, Hawkins and Alexander are pretty safe in terms of what they provide on ST and to the D. That's 13 in total.

So now that leaves 6 roster spots:
Izzo, Mays, Gardner, Hawkins, Mitchell, Baker, Spann and any FA's or draft picks. These spots will be won in TC. Ideally, I'd like to see a vet FA LB, and then at least 2 or 3 draft picks as these are positions where we need youth.

 

[mgteich]

We really need to carry a 7th DL in case of injury. I agree that we need a 10th DB. I don't think that we will carry a 6th WR, nor do I think Mills is in any way safe. So, I also have two roster spots at the bottom.

OFFENSE (23)
QB 2
RB/FB 4
TE 3
OL 9
WR 5 (Jackson on PUP makes 6 and 2 on the PS makes 8)

DEFENSE (25)
DL 7 (the backups need to be flexible; Wright played some NT in 2006)
LB/ST 8 (we don't need to know now who will play where)
DB/ST 10 (I'd include Andrews as one of 10 as of now)

SPECIALISTS (3)
KR/PR/DS 3

BOTTOM OF THE ROSTER (2)

These positions could come from anywhere. They could be utility players. They could be developmental players. The default is two additional special teamers. The contenders at the moment are Mills, Spann, Troy Brown and Baker. However any of the three UDFA linebackers could be competing here, if and when they get beaten out for one of the 8 linebacker positions.

My current guess is that one these spots will be filled by a RB/HB and one by a LB, although I would prefer a RB/HB and a veteran QB.

Here's how it currently looks, IMO:

K/P/LS -- always 3
QB -- 2
RB/FB -- 4, not counting Mills, unless there's a draft choice
TE -- 4, counting Mills
OL -- 9 (sorry, Mruck), unless there's a draft choice
WR -- 6 (welcome home, Troy)

That leaves room for only 25 on defense.

DE -- 4, counting Mike Wright, unless there's a draft choice (sorry, Mr. Hill)
NT -- 2 or more
OLB -- 4 or more,counting Vrabel and Thomas
ILB -- 4 or more, counting Izzo
S -- 5 or more -- currently Harrison, Wilson, Hawkins, Sanders, Mitchell/Baker/Andrews
CB -- 4 or more -- currently Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Scott, (Spann)

Absent reductions at other slots, whether for injury or other reasons, there are only 2 slots for all my "and mores", or even fewer if a draft choice nabs a spot elsewhere. I think one pretty much has to be a DB, and I also don't think 6 DL is a comfortable number.

So if anybody is added through the draft on offense, I think there has to be an offensive cut to balance him (or an IR situation). And except for Britt and Brown, I don't think there's anybody in much obvious danger of being cut.

Well, Mills or one of the WRs could screw up ...

 

[DaBruinz]

Way too early to begin predicting the 53 roster slots. Especially when the draft hasn't happened yet.

The Pats have 66 players signed or tendered. 3 of them are NFLE Exemptions in Baugher, Malone and Barthelemes. That means between the draft, free agency, and udfa, the Pats will be adding 17 players.

Of those 17, 8-10 figure to be draft picks. The other 7-9 players will be UDFA or free agents. And all will be a factor in deciding the final 53 and the 8 practice squad spots.

 

[biffman]

I see only room for 4-5 rookies, and all would be on defense. Of course, there may be a WR that falls to us that we feel is great value or an OL. However, I would be surprised if more than one rookie makes the team on offense.

Defense is a little more iffy. I see 4-5 potential spots for rookies and possibly one or two more, depending on what the coaching staff thinks of Mays, Woods, Hawkins and Andrews.

Offense (24) - This includes Brown, who also will play STs and fill in as the an emergency DB. Brown could be on the outside looking in if a stud WR falls to us.

QB - 2 (Brady and Cassell)
RB/FB - 5 (Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Evans, Mills (as the H-Back))
OL - 8 (Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Hochstein, Yates, O'Callahan)
WR - 6 (Stallworth, Caldwell, Welker, Gaffeny, Washington, Brown (Jackson PUP))
TE - 3 (Watson, Thomas, Brady)

STs (3)

K - 1 (Gostkowski)
P - 1 (Miller)
LS - 1 (Paxton)

Defense (26)

DL - 7 (Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Green, Wright, Smith, Hill *or* replacement for Hill)
LB - 9 (Colvin, Bruschi, Vrabel, Thomas, Izzo, Mays, Woods, Vet FA, Rookie)
DB - 10 (Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Scott, Harrison, Sanders, Wilson, Rookie, Rookie, Andrews *or* Hawkins)

To do list for FA:

FA one more vet ILB.

To do list for Draft:

At least two dbs and one lb. One QB for the future ala Cassell. Everything else is wide open.

 

[AzPatsFan]

This review only serves to reveal how few openings there are on this roster. But it doesn't include any guys likely to go to the PS; or the inevitable guys to PUP or IR.

For example, I could see a couple of 6th or 7th rounders to go to developmental OT such as some TE conversion(s), that need a couple years in Dante's school.

A PS QB might be a pick as well like Rowe from Nevada, or Edwards from Stanford.

 

[DaBruinz]

That's just it. I think that there are a LOT more openings than people are giving credit for.

I don't believe that LeKevan Smith or Santonio Thomas have solidified anything with the back-up NT.

We all can agree now that Hill is a bust.

Mays, Alexander, Izzo and Woods are not guaranteed spots by any stretch of the imagination.

Hawkins, Scott, Gay, Spann, Andrews aren't guaranteed positions.

On the offense, Evans isn't guaranteed a spot. Neither is Mills. Neither is Kelley Washington or Gaffney. Yates, and Mruczkowski aren't guaranteed spots.

There are a lot of positions on this team and very few are guaranteed. It all depends on whether BB, Pioli and crew saw what the things they expect out of a player during last season.

 

[Fumblerooski]

Nice look. A few thoughts...

WR: I don't think Troy is back. If he is, IMO it will be midway through the season if injuries hit at the position. I don't think we keep 6 and Chad Jackson to start the year. Save the extra roster spot for defense. As for any new WR additions, I expect a late day 2 pick but that's it. BB seems to like keeping speed/burner guys on the ps. They probably help with scout team work, and maybe they'll develop.

DL: IMO there's no way we don't keep 7. We rotate constantly to keep everyone fresh. We have 5 quality guys. Although I doubt we go DL early (maybe Carriker if he slips but that's about it), I could definitely see a DL or two added on late day 1 or day 2 to compete with Hill/Smith/Thomas for the last 2 roster spots or a possible practice squad stay.

I think you have to look at DB and LB together, as the backups will be the heart of our ST unit. With 24 on O, 3 ST, and 7 DL that leaves 19 guys. Here are the locks (9):
LB: Colvin, Vrabel, Bruschi, Thomas
DB: Harrison, Hobbs, Samuels, Sanders, Wilson

Now I think it's safe to say that Gay, Scott, Hawkins and Alexander are pretty safe in terms of what they provide on ST and to the D. That's 13 in total.

So now that leaves 6 roster spots:
Izzo, Mays, Gardner, Hawkins, Mitchell, Baker, Spann and any FA's or draft picks. These spots will be won in TC. Ideally, I'd like to see a vet FA LB, and then at least 2 or 3 draft picks as these are positions where we need youth.

I think Gardner was released.

Britt, Mills, Yates, Mruckowski and Washington are not locks on O.

Smith, Hill, Mays, Woods, Mitchell, Baker and Spahn are not locks on D.

Bottom line - only room for @ 4-5 rookies and 2-3 FAs to make the 2007 53.

With the FA gains/losses, this team will once again be a Lombardi contenda.

 

[DaBruinz]

I think Gardner was released.

Gardner was here on a 1 year deal. He's a UFA again.

Britt, Mills, Yates, Mruckowski and Washington are not locks on O.

While Yates isn't a lock, he's close because of the deal the Pats signed ( I know I mentioned him as well). Its unlikedly that the Pats would sign him to a 3 year deal only to let him go 3 months later. Yates is a C/G and behind Hochstein, but still a quality player.

Smith, Hill, Mays, Woods, Mitchell, Baker and Spahn are not locks on D.

What Smith on defeense? Woods is probably close to being a lock. As is Mitchell because of his special teams play and because of his ability to play at safety.

Bottom line - only room for @ 4-5 rookies and 2-3 FAs to make the 2007 53.

With the FA gains/losses, this team will once again be a Lombardi contenda.

It will be interesting to see what the Pats do in the draft. I think that there are spots open and that there are few who are safe and that the Pats will draft players who they can put onto the practice squad if they get a chance.

 

[Fencer]

Barrring injury, Mitchell, Baker, Andrews, Spann, and any draftees are going to have trouble scraping out more than two roster spots among them, given that the Pats also have

Samuel
Hobbs
Gay
Scott

Harrison
Wilson
Hawkins
Sanders

So I wouldn't call Mitchell or anybody else in that first group a "near-lock", unless he's an early-round new draft choice we learn about in late April.

 

[biffman]

Mays, Alexander, Izzo and Woods are not guaranteed spots by any stretch of the imagination.

Izzo should make the team simply for STs reasons. You know how important STs are to BB. Don't forget, Izzo is the first FA BB signed when he came here. Also, at least one of Mays and/or Woods will be here, if not both. Two young lbs who have gotten some training and will now be given a season to show what they can do. LBs take a while to develop and there's no reason to get rid of young guys with promise when the rest of the corps is aging.

Hawkins, Scott, Gay, Spann, Andrews aren't guaranteed positions.

Hawkins, Scott, Andrews and Gay should be in. Hawkins had a few bad games last year, but has been solid for the most part. He is what he is - a competent back up who shouldn't be starting. Ditto for Scott, who provides position flexibility. Andrews showed real potential and is a good STs guy. We all know what Gay can do when he's healthy. Spann should be gone.

On the offense, Evans isn't guaranteed a spot. Neither is Mills. Neither is Kelley Washington or Gaffney. Yates, and Mruczkowski aren't guaranteed spots.

I disagree with almost everything you say here. They just signed Evans to an extension. He's their only real fullback. Gaffney's taken advantage of his opportunities. I don't see why he wouldn't make the team. Yates is definitely going to make the team. They paid him a regular salary to keep him on the PS last year and they just gave him a new contract.

Washington's not guaranteed a spot, but he should make it if he's healthy.

I agree that Mruc is no lock.

There are a lot of positions on this team and very few are guaranteed. It all depends on whether BB, Pioli and crew saw what the things they expect out of a player during last season.

Sure, nothing is guaranteed. But I would say there are only going to be 4-5 spots for rookies on the team. Now, obviously injuries are going to be a factor and you never know if some rookie comes along and just blows them away. Right now though, it looks like it's going to be very tough to crack this roster.