The Defense Before the Draft

[mgteich]

Obviously, the best thing the FO could do is sign Samuel to a long-term deal.

We all expect a couple of ILB signings, and perhaps a jag CB (like Mickens). The defense would then be ready to go. And there would still be potential improvements at every position, an ideal way to enter the draft.

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Seymour, Warren, Hill/Thomas, Green
DT - 3 Wilfork, Wright, Smith
LB - 8 Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, Bruschi, Woods, Alexander/fa, Mays/fa, Izzo
CB - 5 Samuel, Hobbs, Scott, Gay/fa, Spann/Andrews
S - 5 Sanders, Wilson, Harrison, Hawkins, Mitchell/Baker

 

[shirtsleeve]

Obviously, the best thing the FO could do is sign Samuel to a long-term deal.

We all expect a couple of ILB signings, and perhaps a jag CB (like Mickens). The defense would then be ready to go. And there would still be potential improvements at every position, an ideal way to enter the draft.

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Seymour, Warren, Hill/Thomas, Green
DT - 3 Wilfork, Wright, Smith
LB - 8 Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, Bruschi, Woods, Alexander/fa, Mays/fa, Izzo
CB - 5 Samuel, Hobbs, Scott, Gay/fa, Spann/Andrews
S - 5 Sanders, Wilson, Harrison, Hawkins, Mitchell/Baker

It is my opinon that the team will try to sign him this week, before the off-season program begins. I'm thinking that we will hear something around saturday.

 

[ClevTrev]

Obviously, the best thing the FO could do is sign Samuel to a long-term deal.

Unless Asante is willing to take a home-town discount, I don't think this will get done. Coming off a career year, his price has just jumped to keep pace with Clements, which is way out of line.

Can we be sure that last season was a continuing upward trend for Asante, or was it the vision of a big contract in his head? I liked the guy a lot last season, but it wasn't long ago that he was being identified as the nickel back on the team and not one of the starting CBs. These are the things the Pats need to consider going forward.

However, if they come up with an impact CB in the draft, it makes everything that much more interesting . . . Why would they give Asante Fort Knox when they could let Asante go after 2007 and bide their time until the next FA (Hobbs?) comes of age. It's all about protecting the cap.

 

[mgteich]

I think that Samuel will consider a Stallworth type deal, to avoid being a franchise player again next year.

 

[ClevTrev]

I think that Samuel will consider a Stallworth type deal, to avoid being a franchise player again next year.

That would be nice, but if I'm BB/SP, I don't have any urgency to get this done until after the draft, rookie, and mini camps.

Now, if they can do something creative that rewards Asante fair value for incentives, that would be good, but both sides will have to move toward each other to keep the contract reasonable.

 

[holyredeemer]

I say wait on resigning asante. Put a deal in place and let his people know that after the draft, well gladly give it to him. We could use that to our advantage. A smoke screen tactic so to speak. I might be kinda overdoing it here, but to other teams, they'll have no idea what the pats are even slightly goin for. Any edge we can get, im for it.

 

[hwc]

I think that Samuel will consider a Stallworth type deal, to avoid being a franchise player again next year.

Why should he consider a Stallworth type deal? He's put in his years and earned his payday.

I honestly don't think the contract is going to be that difficult to get done. The Pats are going to pay him his money.

One of the ramifications of the new CBA negotiated by the NFL Agents Association will be a widening gap between the vet minimum JAGs/rookie contract guys and the big money players. The average salary cap hit now has to be $2 million and that average is going to be driven by huge contracts for a few veteran players.

 

[hwc]

I liked the guy a lot last season, but it wasn't long ago that he was being identified as the nickel back on the team and not one of the starting CBs.

Identified by whom? I think Asante has played damn well ever since he became a New England Patriot. He was thrown in to the fire as a rookie and has delivered the goods. Has he been perfect? No. Show me a cornerback who doesn't get torched, especially now that the League has outlawed pass defense.

 

[pats63]

This is going to be a defensive draft coming up,dude...I love to sign Asante sign....Then we would be drafting SS or FS that can also CB...We need to draft LBers...Why would BB&SP doing in Florida....I smell Gator bait...Siler might be the one for the ILB....I think Willis is going to be gone and we need a plan B....

 

[jczxohn1]

If available, Carricker would make a good replacement for Hill/Thomas in the 1st rd.

 

[rookBoston]

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Seymour, Warren, Hill/Thomas, Green
DT - 3 Wilfork, Wright, Smith
LB - 8 Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, Bruschi, Woods, Alexander/fa, Mays/fa, Izzo
CB - 5 Samuel, Hobbs, Scott, Gay/fa, Spann/Andrews
S - 5 Sanders, Wilson, Harrison, Hawkins, Mitchell/Baker

Just to make some adjustments to your roster... may seem minor, but it highlights the issues:

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Seymour, Warren, Green, Hill/rookie
the class of our D... a cause for tremendous pride

DT - 1 Wright
Wright only really works in the scheme when we shift to a 4-3 with Seymour inside.

NT - 2 Wilfork, Smith/rookie
underlining our need for real depth at NT, in the form of an agile 320# tackler-- of which there are none in this draft class after Branch

OLB - 4 Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, Woods
all set on the outside... we're back to our 2003 form

ILB - 4 Bruschi, Izzo, Alexander/UFA, Mays/rookie
Seau would make this unit much better, but a Day One pick would still make sense. I still like Posluszny on this team, to ultimately take the reigns from Bruschi. Bru, Seau, Pos and Izzo sounds SB calibre to me, and the one thing that would put this D over the top.

CB - 5 Samuel, Hobbs, Scott, Gay, Spann/Andrews/rookie
I actually think our CB situation is fine for 2007. Maybe a rookie to groom for 2008, and a guy for the PS... but the urgency is not there for me.

S - 5 Sanders, Wilson, Harrison, Hawkins, Mitchell/Baker/rookie
Harrison has got to be considering retirement. With Wilson and Hawkins, our need is more for SS than FS, which is why the excitement about Merriweather, Nelson and Griffin has be scratching my head a bit. Aaron Rouse is more the size: 6-4 223#, but lacks the intangibles. I'm not sure I see a SS that I like in this draft, after Landry; John Wendling, maybe.

 

[captain stone]

Obviously, the best thing the FO could do is sign Samuel to a long-term deal.

We all expect a couple of ILB signings, and perhaps a jag CB (like Mickens). The defense would then be ready to go. And there would still be potential improvements at every position, an ideal way to enter the draft.

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Seymour, Warren, Hill/Thomas, Green
DT - 3 Wilfork, Wright, Smith
LB - 8 Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, Bruschi, Woods, Alexander/fa, Mays/fa, Izzo
CB - 5 Samuel, Hobbs, Scott, Gay/fa, Spann/Andrews
S - 5 Sanders, Wilson, Harrison, Hawkins, Mitchell/Baker

DE - $eemore, Warren, Green, Wright (is not a NT), Hill, Santonio Thomas.

NT - Wilfork, LKSmith,...a vet FA would be nice in case Smith hasn't progressed.

OLB - AThomas, Colvin, Woods,...plus a vet FA (or 2), and/or a draft pick (or 2), in case Woods hasn't progressed.

ILB - Vrabel (stays inside unless multiple FAs/draft picks arrive), Bruschi (should be a backup at this stage), then...nobody. This is by far the least deep portion of the roster. That this glaring need has, so far, gone unfilled frightens me. Alexander and Mays just don't cut the mustard. Multiple FAs and a first-day draft pick (ILB of the future), plus a 2nd-day pick and UDFAs are desperately needed.

ST - Izzo, because he's a nice guy, I guess.

CB - Samuel, Hobbs, ChScott, Gay, Andrews...and Bam Childress? He doesn't seem to have a future here as a WR, does he? At least 1, preferably 2, CB is needed, esp. considering the injury histories of Scott and Gay. Antwain Spann does not count. I would be shocked if a CB is not drafted on the first day...and the 2nd day.

FS - Wilson, Hawkins,...is not enough. This is the 2nd-least deep portion of the roster. Rashad Baker does not count. Scott and Andrews could move to FS, I suppose; that would provide no depth to the CBs, however. Both a vet FA (or 2) and a first-day draft pick (FS of the future), and possibly a 2nd-day pick/UDFA, are needed.

SS - Harrison, Sanders, Mitchell...might be enough, depending on Harrison's and Mitchell's injury progress. The question also remains: is Sanders our SS of the future? If the answer is: maybe not, then perhaps a draft pick needs to be expended here, as well as at ILB, FS, CB, OLB.

 

[BelichickFan]

With Wilson and Hawkins, our need is more for SS than FS, which is why the excitement about Merriweather, Nelson and Griffin has be scratching my head a bit.

Wilson is a UFA in 11 months and hasn't played well for a few years. Hawkins is a JAG. We need both, IMO, unless Sanders ends up being a decent SS replacement for Rodney. But the FS spot is hardly filled long term by Wilson and Hawkins.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Whatever happened to Wilson? Everyone talks about him like he's stick a fork in it done. He used to be one of the most promising young players in the secondary.

 

[mgcolby]

Identified by whom? I think Asante has played damn well ever since he became a New England Patriot. He was thrown in to the fire as a rookie and has delivered the goods. Has he been perfect? No. Show me a cornerback who doesn't get torched, especially now that the League has outlawed pass defense.

Being torched is not his problem - its jumping routes trying to get the pick and missing - allowing a 3 yard reception to turn into a 20 yard gain, its peaking into the backfield and allowing a receiver to run right across his face (in the end zone) only noticing when its to late, its going for a pick on a deep route and having the ball go through your arms and having the receiver catch the ball for a 40+ yard gain - rather than just knocking the ball away. That was just last season's mistakes that I can quickly think of. The year before he couldn't catch a cold if it smacked him upside the head. I give him credit for improving his hands over last offseason and I give him credit for stepping up during the post-season.

In other words its going for the glory that is his problem. I do not have any problem with him gambling or jumping a route when he knows he has help over the top, but many times last season he gambled when he didn't have help and it cost us first downs or worse.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Just to make some adjustments to your roster... may seem minor, but it highlights the issues:

DEFENSE (25)
DE - 4 Seymour, Warren, Green, Hill/rookie
the class of our D... a cause for tremendous pride

DT - 1 Wright
Wright only really works in the scheme when we shift to a 4-3 with Seymour inside.

NT - 2 Wilfork, Smith/rookie
underlining our need for real depth at NT, in the form of an agile 320# tackler-- of which there are none in this draft class after Branch

OLB - 4 Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, Woods
all set on the outside... we're back to our 2003 form

ILB - 4 Bruschi, Izzo, Alexander/UFA, Mays/rookie
Seau would make this unit much better, but a Day One pick would still make sense. I still like Posluszny on this team, to ultimately take the reigns from Bruschi. Bru, Seau, Pos and Izzo sounds SB calibre to me, and the one thing that would put this D over the top.

CB - 5 Samuel, Hobbs, Scott, Gay, Spann/Andrews/rookie
I actually think our CB situation is fine for 2007. Maybe a rookie to groom for 2008, and a guy for the PS... but the urgency is not there for me.

S - 5 Sanders, Wilson, Harrison, Hawkins, Mitchell/Baker/rookie
Harrison has got to be considering retirement. With Wilson and Hawkins, our need is more for SS than FS, which is why the excitement about Merriweather, Nelson and Griffin has be scratching my head a bit. Aaron Rouse is more the size: 6-4 223#, but lacks the intangibles. I'm not sure I see a SS that I like in this draft, after Landry; John Wendling, maybe.

Rook,

I agree with all your observations, especially the listing andf questioning of the urge for secondary people. It escapes me why to invest first rounders to upgrade the 5th CB or the 7th Safety?

What is the requirement, when we don't have a single suitable LB backup?

At NT there is only one candidate in the draft, as far as I am concerned. That is Paul Soliai, Utah 6'4" 345# and a 5.11 He is a recognized two gapper with great strength, and the criticism is not that he can't stop the run as he is excellent at that, but that he isn't much of a pass rush penetrator. That is an attribute that we don't particularly need of our NTs, especially a backup NT and when we have Wright and Seymour as interior rushers in our 4-3 formations. He rates to be a 3rd or 4th or maybe alter pick, that upgrades our D.

I could fully understand using all the high picks on D, especially on ILBs.

People say that its hard to convert DE to OLBs and that is true. But that situation does NOT apply to ILBs. The reason is that he had other more major requirements to address. another reason BB hasn't drafted any, is there haven't been any available in the draft where he has been picking.

His wants are different than most. His ILBs need to be big, instinctual, and have some quickness and some but not great speed.

Most times the sizable ILBs have gone 235 and 4.8 This year there are Willis, Harris, Posluzny, and DeOssie as inside candidates. All these candidates are 240# and all ran from 4.50 to 4.65. At OLB conversion there really isn't very much. Anthony Spencer, Jarvis Moss, Stewart Bradley are the only guys attractive, but they simply don't compare to Ware, Merriman or Wimberly of past years.

Zak DeOssie looks to be able to be big enough to play both ILB and also OLB; so in addition to his familairity to the Pats he might well be a surprise "reach" pick that isn't really a "reach" for the Patriots situation.

 

[BelichickFan]

I agree with all your observations, especially the listing andf questioning of the urge for secondary people. It escapes me why to invest first rounders to upgrade the 5th CB or the 7th Safety?

It's because we have only one Safety on the roster who is NFL average or better and he's old. Sorry, Rodney, you're old. The rest vary from sucking to below average.

 

[AzPatsFan]

It's because we have only one Safety on the roster who is NFL average or better and he's old. Sorry, Rodney, you're old. The rest vary from sucking to below average.

Although Geno has been injured the past two years, he has been judged good enough to have garnered pro bowl votes in his healthy years. Samuels, is also a near probowl CB. Hobbs looks to be a rising player, as well. Gay proved himself as a starter on a Super bowl winning club, and Sanders has improved as a SS in only two years. Scott started for the winning record Steelers foro several years,as well. All four starters and even a reserve or two could be voted to the probowl in their careers. Guys like Rodney and Gay.

I disagree with your opinion that they either "sucking", except Rodney and/or they are "below average". When Geno is a free agent after the next season, he'll draw interest and as much money as Mr. Lewis got after being benched by the Eagles, too. Neither Bill and Scott, who franchised Asante nor the several clubs who were looking to sign him for big bucks, thought he was "sucking or below average".

I think I respect their opinions more than yours.

 

[Fencer]

That would be nice, but if I'm BB/SP, I don't have any urgency to get this done until after the draft, rookie, and mini camps.

Getting him to come into minicamp and so on is an incentive to getting it done sooner rather than later.

Once the cap hit from the rest of FA has become predictable (I say "predictable" instead of "known" because there will always be more cheap guys brought in late), there's no reason not to just get the deal signed and over with. Playing chicken is stupid. And you don't want Samuel to feel he should go visit other teams to get offers and force the Patriots' hand.

 

[Fencer]

Whatever happened to Wilson? Everyone talks about him like he's stick a fork in it done. He used to be one of the most promising young players in the secondary.

1. He has kept regressing.
2. Even if he turns that around, there's no assurance that the Pats can re-sign him to an attractive contract after 2007.