BB's Day One Draft Strategy

[Water Boy]

I'm psyched to have Welker in the fold, but I'm a little bummed that we don't have a 2nd round pick going into the draft. (I'm not saying that I'd rather have the pick than Welker). On draft day it will be hard to watch all of the quality players coming off the board between pick 28 and 92. The way our draft picks are structured, if the blue chip first round prospects at our positions of need (Willis, Landry, Hall, Revis, Houston, others) come off the board before we pick (likely), BB may be forced to "reach" and take 2nd round talent in round 1. The upside of course is an extra year on a rookie contract, the downside is you may not be maximizing trade pick value. In other words, if the next player on our board grades as a mid-second rounder, shouldn't we trade the first rounder and pick up a mid second rounder and an additional pick? I'm curious to see how BB/Pioli manage this draft and how far they may reach (if at all) in round 1.

 

[dryheat44]

In other words, if the next player on our board grades as a mid-second rounder, shouldn't we trade the first rounder and pick up a mid second rounder and an additional pick? I'm curious to see how BB/Pioli manage this draft and how far they may reach (if at all) in round 1.

That's the million dollar question.

Given a lack of picks between #28 and #93, if BB can't/won't swing a trade, and nobody unexpected slips to us, we're going to see a guy like David Harris or Josh Wilson go about half a round early. As you say, that's not necessarily bad. Especially in the case of Harris, it gives us an extra season under contract for a position that is not easy to pick up.

 

[PATSNUTme]

I won't do my Willis broken record here.

My take on "reaches" is this. If the pick is a football player and fills the needs of the team and is successful, no pick is ever "reach". If the pick turns out to be a bust, even if the player is taken at the "right spot" then it was a bad pick.

"Reaches" only apply until the games start to be played. After that, it's either a good or bad pick.

 

[mgteich]

Having an extra year adds to the value of picking a player in the last half of round one.

I'm psyched to have Welker in the fold, but I'm a little bummed that we don't have a 2nd round pick going into the draft. (I'm not saying that I'd rather have the pick than Welker). On draft day it will be hard to watch all of the quality players coming off the board between pick 28 and 92. The way our draft picks are structured, if the blue chip first round prospects at our positions of need (Willis, Landry, Hall, Revis, Houston, others) come off the board before we pick (likely), BB may be forced to "reach" and take 2nd round talent in round 1. The upside of course is an extra year on a rookie contract, the downside is you may not be maximizing trade pick value. In other words, if the next player on our board grades as a mid-second rounder, shouldn't we trade the first rounder and pick up a mid second rounder and an additional pick? I'm curious to see how BB/Pioli manage this draft and how far they may reach (if at all) in round 1.

 

[Water Boy]

Having an extra year adds to the value of picking a player in the last half of round one.

Agreed, but I wonder how BB/Pioli quantify the value of 1 player signed to a 5 year deal vs the value of having 2 players (by virtue of trading the first round pick) signed to 4 year deals?

For example, (I haven't done the trade value math), but there could be a scenario where the Pats could trade either No. 24 or 28 for Tampa's 35 and 64 (there would propably be some swaping of lower round picks to make the deal work). Personnally, I would rather see the Pats take the approach of trading back the pick. Under this approach, instead of reaching for Griffin at 28 (and getting him for five years) I'd prefer trading back and getting potentially two of the following: Griffin, David Harris, Josh Wilson, Anthony Gonzalez, Jason Hill, John Wendling, Spencer, Ray McDonald, Siler, etc. who will most certainly be off the board before we pick again at No. 92.

 

[Seneschal2]

The way our draft picks are structured, if the blue chip first round prospects at our positions of need (Willis, Landry, Hall, Revis, Houston, others) come off the board before we pick (likely), BB may be forced to "reach" and take 2nd round talent in round 1.

A "reach" according to whom? Let's face it, by now most are aware that BB will draft players who fit the system ONLY, and doesn't really care about the draft rankings. Hypothetically, he may draft someone at #24 who's considered a late first; he may also select someone at #28 who most rank in the top 3rd of R2.

Also, the Pats may only have 10-15 first round ranked prospects -- and may end up with two of them at both of their picks.

In other words, if the next player on our board grades as a mid-second rounder, shouldn't we trade the first rounder and pick up a mid second rounder and an additional pick?

I agree, I'd like to see a trade back to acquire that second-rounder. We may try, but it takes two to tango. There's definate talent in that round.

I'm curious to see how BB/Pioli manage this draft and how far they may reach (if at all) in round 1.

This draft, I doubt any of us will be shocked with our day one picks. I try not to feed into the "reach" concerns that some here may have, probably because I bought stock in the 'players who fit' philosophy after our first SB.

 

[Pat_the_Patriot]

Agreed, but I wonder how BB/Pioli quantify the value of 1 player signed to a 5 year deal vs the value of having 2 players (by virtue of trading the first round pick) signed to 4 year deals?

For example, (I haven't done the trade value math), but there could be a scenario where the Pats could trade either No. 24 or 28 for Tampa's 35 and 64 (there would propably be some swaping of lower round picks to make the deal work). Personnally, I would rather see the Pats take the approach of trading back the pick. Under this approach, instead of reaching for Griffin at 28 (and getting him for five years) I'd prefer trading back and getting potentially two of the following: Griffin, David Harris, Josh Wilson, Anthony Gonzalez, Jason Hill, John Wendling, Spencer, Ray McDonald, Siler, etc. who will most certainly be off the board before we pick again at No. 92.

I'm 100% with you and think that a second+ for first trade might happen... but the other option (given that something crazy doesn't happen i.e. Willis magically falling to #24 AND that BB and SP don't trade UP to get someone, i.e. Willis again or Landry), I see is that the Pats might trade a #1 pick for a #1 pick in next year's draft... heck, if the "value" for another organization is there, they might trade both.... with the signings from FA and the amount of coaches "drafting for their jobs", I think that the Pats might be able to trade one of their two picks down (I don't know the math, but say a mid/high second round pick with a low third/high fourth) and the other to next year's draft... in BB and SP I trust, so whatever happens, I'm good... but I don't think that would nec. be a bad thing, either!

 

[Water Boy]

A "reach" according to whom?

According to BB's draft board. I think it's likely that BB/Pioli only have 10-15 players that grade out as first rounders.

 

[Water Boy]

in BB and SP I trust, so whatever happens, I'm good...

Amen Brother.

However, IMO BB/Pioli's track record in the second round has been shakey at best (see Meion Branch, Marquise Hill, Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson). Maybe its best that they don't have a 2nd rounder.

 

[SamBamsFan]

According to BB's draft board. I think it's likely that BB/Pioli only have 10-15 players that grade out as first rounders.

I doubt that they have more than 5-6 rated with 1st round grades. Read Patriot Reign and the chapters involving the draft.

 

[rookBoston]

On the value chart, trading back from #28 for a 2nd and 3rd would put the Pats in the mid-40s and late-70s. That would mean trading partners with the Steelers, Panthers or Packers... something like that.

I actually like the idea. Trading down with the Pack... maybe get S Eric Weddle at #47, and CB David Irons or LB Earl Everett at #78. Really, there aren't a lot of players in the late first that I particularly like. I'd rather trade back for a player like Bazuin or Woodley than take BPA at #28.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Nah, I'll keep promoting this theory until BB outsmarts everyone and takes a Punter: they are going to bundle both first round picks and move up for Adam Carriker (assuming that Phil Savage overrules Romeo and takes CJ).

 

[ayjackson]

Nah, I'll keep promoting this theory until BB outsmarts everyone and takes a Punter: they are going to bundle both first round picks and move up for Adam Carriker (assuming that Phil Savage overrules Romeo and takes CJ).

24 and 28 to SF for 11 and 76? should be about equal and the niners have three fourth rounders to soften the blow of no third.

If we were to come away with Carriker, would Green make it through draft day a Patriot? Would he make it through training camp? Carriker and Green are both to good to sit fourth in line for a starting DE position.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

24 and 28 to SF for 11 and 76? should be about equal and the niners have three fourth rounders to soften the blow of no third.

If we were to come away with Carriker, would Green make it through draft day a Patriot? Would he make it through training camp? Carriker and Green are both to good to sit fourth in line for a starting DE position.

I'm foolishly dreaming about Carriker, signed to a six year contract, with his short shuttle and 3-cone times as good or better than LBs weighing 50-70 lbs lighter. I can see rotating him in at ROLB alongside Ty on running plays. I don't see drafting him as a threat to Jarvis Green, Mike Wright perhaps, Marquis Hill definitely - on the possible future side of things, his signing is insurance with Warren UFA in Carriker's third season, and if Ty re-signs you've got three (or four with Jarvis) starting quality DEs rotating in and out with fresh legs [be very, very afraid]. I don't think it's a realistic scenerio to bundle two firsts to move that high, but a six year contract for a DL like Carriker who at worst is a solid 3-4 DE candidate is going to be really, really cheap compared to prices under the new CBA. I'm just hung up on a 6'6" 296 lb guy who runs a 1.60/10 yd split, 4.18 short shuttle, and a 7.06 3-cone. Especially since he dropped 5 lbs and ran a 4.75/40 with a 1.58/10yd at his pro-day...I can't help but think OLB with those numbers from a guy bigger than Willie Mac. Quarterback Hurry anyone?

 

[shirtsleeve]

Sooo....tell me about packaging #24 and #28 for a punter. Brillient!! Brillient.:eat3: (those are Guinness of course).

I heard somewhere (EEI, Micheal Holley, I think) that the Pats dont have more than 10 graded out in the first round. Probably less. We may either package the two for a move up (unlikely, due to the probable unavailability of a viable trading partner) or move down with at least one of the picks, but considering the situation at the top of the draft being so thin, we may have trouble peddling #28.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Sooo....tell me about packaging #24 and #28 for a punter. Brillient!! Brillient.:eat3: (those are Guinness of course).

I heard somewhere (EEI, Micheal Holley, I think) that the Pats dont have more than 10 graded out in the first round. Probably less. We may either package the two for a move up (unlikely, due to the probable unavailability of a viable trading partner) or move down with at least one of the picks, but considering the situation at the top of the draft being so thin, we may have trouble peddling #28.

You're just pulling my leg now, any five year old knows the Pats can sit tight at #24 and have the top Punter drop to them.

 

[chunkypony]

I'd like to see a trade back from 28, grabbing either Nelson or Posluszny with the 24, and pick up David Harris, John Wendling, Jason Hill, or Michael Griffin. That would make me a happy guy.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Regardless of what Holley wrote in Patriot Reign, this year's draft board has 2 maybe 3 blue chip prospects. (C Johnson and Thomas definitely; Peterson maybe.)
Then there is a solid core of 10-12 red chip prospects. Guys like Quinn, Landry, Adams, etc.)
Then a solid group of 40-50 players that have very little differecne between them. They could go in the middle of the first or drop to the middle of the second.
With two picks in the upper third of the next group of 40-50 athletes, BB should have a difficult time finding a trading partner (because so little differentiates the athletes at this point) unless some other team is extremely high on a guy that everyone else is luke warm about, (ie: Boller a few years ago.) or one of the red chip prospects falls far enough down that BB feels compelled to trade up for.
A more likely trading scenario is probably available if BB deceides to trade out of the 2007 draft and into the 2008 draft.

 

[Water Boy]

A more likely trading scenario is probably available if BB deceides to trade out of the 2007 draft and into the 2008 draft.

The more I look at this draft, the more I'm in favor of that approach.