Shockingly Obvious: McDaniels, Don't Be Afraid of the Run!!!

[shmessy]

Loss #1 To Cinci: Brady 18-38 197 yds TD 0 INT 1. Patriots Rushes 18-82 Avg 4.6 http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331006004

Loss#2 to NYJ: Brady 22-46 228 yds TD 0 INT 1. Patriots Rushes 20-90 Avg. 4.5
Watch New England Patriots vs. New York Jets [10/20/2013] - NFL.com

Loss #3 to Car: Brady 29-40 296 yds TD 1 INT 1. Patriots Rushes 25-107 Avg. 4.3
http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331118029

Loss #4 to Mia: Brady 35-54 364 yds TD 2 INT 1. Patriots rushes 22-96 Avg. 4.4
http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331215015


So, in 3 of those 4 losses, McDaniels had the Pass to Run ratio at greater than 2-1 (and the other was 8-5) even though the run was averaging in the mid 4's in each game.


Pass to Run Ratios
__________________
Loss #1 38-18
Loss #2 46-20
Loss #3 40-25
Loss #4 54-22

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Nice research. Let's see if the Pats will finally learn their lesson and stop their typical playoff panic, which involves having Brady throw 60 passes that all travel less than five yards in the air.

 

[shmessy]

Now, let's take a look at 4 of the best wins of the season:

#1 Pats-ATL: Brady 20-31 316 yds TD 2 INT 0. Patriots Rushes 31-132 Avg 4.3
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons - Box Score - September 29, 2013 - ESPN

#2 Pats-DEN: Brady 34-50 344 yds TD 3 INT 0. Patriots Rushes 31-116 Avg 3.7
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots - Box Score - November 24, 2013 - ESPN

#3 Pats-BALT: Brady 14-26 172 yds TD 1 INT 0. Patriots Rushes 34-142 Avg 4.2
New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens - Box Score - December 22, 2013 - ESPN

#4 Pats-BUFF: Brady 14-24 122 yds TD 1 INT 1. Patriots Rushes 43-267 Avg 6.2
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots - Box Score - December 29, 2013 - ESPN

Pass to Run Ratios
__________________
#1 31-31
#2 50-31
#3 26-34
#4 24-43

Only one of them had a greater than 1-1 Pass to Run ratio - and even that one was merely 8-5 (****the Denver game where they were down bigtime early).

 

[shmessy]

What's incredible is that in 7 of those 8 examples, the Patriots had better rushing averages in the LOSSES than in the WINS! The one outlier for that was yesterday's crazy run explosion.

What that tells me is that, in the 4 losses, McDaniels/Brady were stubbornly forcing the pass instead of going with what was clearly working.

The breaking point was the idiotic game calling in the second Miami game (No Gronk/Dobson/Thompkins, and which basically cost them the #1 playoff seed). My guess is that someone slapped McDaniels upside the head after that game. Perhaps, it was McDaniels himself.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Wish I could like this thread multiple times. Even yesterday, the Pats left the door far more open than they needed to by moving away from the run when it was working. If the Pats make a deep playoff run, it will be in large part because the running game kept the offense on the field and kept the third downs manageable.

This OL is better at run blocking than pass blocking, and the passing game works best out of the play action.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Lets not let Mr. Brady off the hook. He's changing up some plays and going with passes when a run was originally called.

 

[reflexblue]

This lack of running the ball has gone on through the last Three OC's, Mcdaniles, Obrien, and Mcdaniles again, or since Dillon left. IMO they've relied on TFB's arm to a fault for the last Nine or Ten years.

 

[shmessy]

This lack of running the ball has gone on through the last Three OC's, Mcdaniles, Obrien, and Mcdaniles again, or since Dillon left. IMO they've relied on TFB's arm to a fault for the last Nine or Ten years.

In their defense, I think those OC's in the past never had the deep and talented RB squad that McDaniels has in 2013. Even Bolden has potential to hurt a defense.

Don't forget that the Pats now have their first real FB since Heath Evans.

 

[BradyFTW!]

In their defense, I think those OC's in the past never had the deep and talented RB squad that McDaniels has in 2013. Even Bolden has potential to hurt a defense.

Don't forget that the Pats now have their first real FB since Heath Evans.

The other side of that coin is that this is easily the worst passing offense that the Pats have had since 2006.

 

[supafly]

These numbers obviously go hand in hand with earlier numbers that I posted where the "magic number" for Brady pass attempts is 40.

In games where TFB throws 39 or less times, he has MUCH better numbers, and a much better record, then when he goes over that "40" mark.

I'll see if I can't dig the numbers up and post them when I get home.

 

[Deus Irae]

Correlation is not causation




This shouldn't have to be pointed out every damned year.

 

[BradyFTW!]

These numbers obviously go hand in hand with earlier numbers that I posted where the "magic number" for Brady pass attempts is 40.

In games where TFB throws 39 or less times, he has MUCH better numbers, and a much better record, then when he goes over that "40" mark.

I'll see if I can't dig the numbers up and post them when I get home.

This is generally because QBs throw more when they're behind by a significant margin.

This general rule doesn't apply to the 2013 Pats, though, since they never lost by more than a touchdown, and almost never trailed by more than that.

 

[shmessy]

The other side of that coin is that this is easily the worst passing offense that the Pats have had since 2006.

Yup, even more curious why McDaniels tried to force the square peg in those four losses.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

You're confusing the cause and effect. The Patriots (and every other team in the NFL) will have to pass the ball when behind late to have enough time to win. Conversely when up at the end of the game teams will run more to use up the clock.

Take the first game you have. CIN NE
38 passes
18 rushes

But, after the 3rd quarter they were down 2 scores (3-13) with 9 minutes left.
That's a ratio of 22-16. If your advice worked they shouldn't even be down at this point. Not exactly time to break out the clock killing offense. So they rushed 2 times and passed 18.

Lets take another game with the same situation. CLE NE
52 passes
21 rushes

This time down 3 scores late in the third they had to go to a pass offense ending the game with 23 passes and 3 rushes. Down 26-14 with 2:39 seconds should they rush the ball? That would have been a guaranteed loss just as the same strategy in CIN would have. The difference was it worked. In fact in this game the Patriots didn't score a single point until they abandoned the run.

Take the BAL game.
26 passes
34 rushes.

Sounds good, except they finished that game with 9 straight rushes so it would have been 26-25 if not for being ahead. And if they were behind and threw the ball 9 straight times it would affirm the narrative you have by being opposite at 35-25. But we can all see the final totals were a result of the score, and the score was not a result of the totals.

 

[Observer]

Even if the claim that the losses have been a result of not running enough is true, Brady himself could be responsible for reverting to the pass when things aren't going well. So let's not jump to put all the blame on McDaniels. After all, isn't it Brady's responsibility to look at the defensive alignment and choose the best play? Also, Bill himself is right there on the sideline watching and making all of this happen so it's not like he is oblivious to what the offense is doing.

 

[shmessy]

You're confusing the cause and effect. The Patriots (and every other team in the NFL) will have to pass the ball when behind late to have enough time to win. Conversely when up at the end of the game teams will run more to use up the clock.

Take the first game you have. CIN NE
38 passes
18 rushes

But, after the 3rd quarter they were down 2 scores (3-13) with 9 minutes left.
That's a ratio of 22-16. If your advice worked they shouldn't even be down at this point. Not exactly time to break out the clock killing offense. So they rushed 2 times and passed 18.

Lets take another game with the same situation. CLE NE
52 passes
21 rushes

This time down 3 scores late in the third they had to go to a pass offense ending the game with 23 passes and 3 rushes. Down 26-14 with 2:39 seconds should they rush the ball? That would have been a guaranteed lost just as the same strategy in CIN would have. The difference was it worked. In fact in this game the Patriots didn't score a single point until they abandoned the run.

Take the BAL game.
26 passes
34 rushes.

Sounds good, except they finished that game with 9 straight rushes so it would have been 26-25 if not for being ahead. And if they were behind and threw the ball 9 straight times it would affirm the narrative you have by being opposite at 35-25. But we can all see the final totals were a result of the score, and the score was not a result of the totals.

Your point I can respect more than Deus' because you actually use some facts.

They were never behind by more than 10 points in the Jets loss, the Bengals loss, the Panthers loss nor the Dolphins loss.

The passing game for the 2013 Patriots is not more than 2 times better than the running game.

In each of those 4 losses, they forced the square peg.

 

[BradyFTW!]

You're confusing the cause and effect. The Patriots (and every other team in the NFL) will have to pass the ball when behind late to have enough time to win. Conversely when up at the end of the game teams will run more to use up the clock.

Teams are only forced to pass when they're down by multiple scores late in the game. How many times did the Pats find themselves in that situation this year? There were handful of times when they were attempting to come from behind on the last drive where they were pretty much forced to abandon the run, but when it happened it was rarely for more than a single drive, and in most games it never happened at all. Every loss was by a touchdown or less, and the only time that it took a huge comeback over >1 drive to get to within one score was the Denver game.

 

[supafly]

This is generally because QBs throw more when they're behind by a significant margin.

This general rule doesn't apply to the 2013 Pats, though, since they never lost by more than a touchdown, and almost never trailed by more than that.

It really shouldn't apply to us nearly as much as other teams, due to the fact that we've either won the game or lost by one score or less in almost every single game in the past 3-4 years (aside from the AFCCG loss last year). I don't know the exact numbers, but I'm pretty sure there was one hell of a streak going last year prior to the AFCCG loss, and this year has seen much of the same.

Of course this isn't going to hold true in every case, due to the fact that certain gameplans are specifically designed to take advantage of secondary weaknesses or to avoid run defense strengths, but it'd be nice to see more balance in the run game overall. For the record, I am hardly blaming McDaniels himself--as there are many situations where Brady checks out of the play himself.

 

[supafly]

Teams are only forced to pass when they're down by multiple scores late in the game. How many times did the Pats find themselves in that situation this year? There were handful of times when they were attempting to come from behind on the last drive where they were pretty much forced to abandon the run, but when it happened it was rarely for more than a single drive, and in most games it never happened at all. Every loss was by a touchdown or less, and the only time that it took a huge comeback to get there was the Denver game.

This basically holds true in about 95% of all of our games going back to the past 3-4-5 years, possibly even longer.

Aside from the AFCCG loss to BAL which was 28-13 (but 14-13 in the 4th quarter), the only other games that I can think of that we've lost significantly were the loss to N.Orleans in 2009, and maybe the loss to MIA back in 2006 which was 21-0.

There haven't been many, that's for sure.

 

[BradyFTW!]

This basically holds true in about 95% of all of our games going back to the past 3-4-5 years, possibly even longer.

Aside from the AFCCG loss to BAL which was 28-13 (but 14-13 in the 4th quarter), the only other games that I can think of that we've lost significantly were the loss to N.Orleans in 2009, and maybe the loss to MIA back in 2006 which was 21-0.

There haven't been many, that's for sure.

Browns in 2010 has to be up there too, and I'd include the 2009 playoff loss to the Ravens, but they've definitely been few and far between.