Ranking the round one CBs...

[Seneschal2]

The overall purpose here is to weed out positions and prospects from round one consideration. In this topic we'll focus on CBs.

• Rank the round CBs who represent the best fit for the Pats
• Which CBs may be available at either 24 or 28?
• Should we pass on all of them in the first and draft one later?

As reference, please read John Murphy's Top 5 CBs. Here they are in order:

1. Chris Houston
2. Leon Hall
3. Aaron Ross
4. Darrelle Revis
5. Marcus McCauley

Add your own round one CB if you like...

 

[dryheat44]

Well, my rankings exist elsewhere, but for the purpose of generating discussion, my list looks like this:

1 Darrelle Revis
2 Josh Wilson
3 Marcus McCauley
4 David Irons
5 Michael Coe
6 DeAndre Jackson
7 Bo Smith
8 Corey Graham
9 Marquice Cole
10 Marcus Hamilton
11 Tony Franklin

For the guys expected to go on the first day, my four main criteria are:

1. Ability to play Man coverage - There seems to be a lot of cover-2 type corners in the draft. I'm not interested in spending a premium pick on one.

2. Willingness/Effectiveness in tackling/playing the run - I liked Houston a lot, but every report I've seen is that he's tentative when shedding a WR and tackling a RB. I watched a few Arkansas games this season, and that didn't jump out at me, but assuming film study bears this out, then we can't use him.

3. Short area quickness

4. Ball skills.

If Carriker isn't there at #24, Revis is my top target. However, if they're both gone, I'd be almost as happy with Josh Wilson (though probably not that high). I like McCauley more than most, and would draft him in the third if we miss out on the other two.

Once you get past that, the drafting one of the others would depend on whether they're the best value on the board at the time.

 

[Seneschal2]

...but for the purpose of generating discussion, my list looks like this:

1 Darrelle Revis
2 Josh Wilson
3 Marcus McCauley
4 David Irons
5 Michael Coe
6 DeAndre Jackson
7 Bo Smith
8 Corey Graham
9 Marquice Cole
10 Marcus Hamilton
11 Tony Franklin

Thanks, this kind of post was what I was hoping for. The fact that you have Wilson ranked high is very significant. Maybe BB feels the same way. And with McCauley, this is where BB's coaching connection may play a role. He's certainly athletic enough -- but what exactly did happen his senior year? Maybe his coach knows...maybe not.

Some from your list have character concerns that can be overlooked -- or not. BB will know for sure...

Some others are sleeper candidates, which give us options later on.

Personally, I'm hoping for Revis at #24, thinking that both Hall and Houston will be off the board first. Wilson is a favorite later (but where?) If not those two, than I'll defer to the sleepers.

 

[SamBamsFan]

The overall purpose here is to weed out positions and prospects from round one consideration. In this topic we'll focus on CBs.

• Rank the round CBs who represent the best fit for the Pats
• Which CBs may be available at either 24 or 28?
• Should we pass on all of them in the first and draft one later?

As reference, please read John Murphy's Top 5 CBs. Here they are in order:

1. 
   [*]Chris Houston
   [*]Leon Hall
   [*]Aaron Ross
   [*]Darrelle Revis
   [*]Marcus McCauley

Add your own round one CB if you like...

Seneschal-
My top 10 (and I know that isn't what you are asking for...)
Day1-
Leon Hall- He is probably unavailable @ our pick, and I wouldn't move for him
Darrelle Revis
Chris Houston
Josh Wilson
Daymeion Hughes- I have a feeling there was a lingering injury so I want to see his Pro Day time.
Day2-
Fred Bennett
DeAndre Jackson
David Irons
AJ Davis
Michael Coe

 

[dryheat44]

Seneschal-

Daymeion Hughes- I have a feeling there was a lingering injury so I want to see his Pro Day time.

He ran a 4.56. An improvement, but nothing earth-shaking. He did say he ran with a sore lower back at the Combine.

From GBN:

No player may have been under more pressure on this year’s on-campus workout schedule that California CB Daymeion Hughes. Hughes had a very disappointing combine when he ran a very slow 4.65 40. Hughes, though, claimed he was slowed by a back injury suffered during this year’s Senior Bowl in January. And Hughes did pick it up at the Bears’ pro day yesterday as he clocked a 4.56 time in the 40, although that is still not a very quick time.

 

[cstjohn17]

I see real potential a CB is drafted in round 1, depending on how the draft breaks down it will come down to the age old question.

Do you want to take the 3rd or 4th CB selected or the number 1 guard?

System evaluation will be critical for CB, the best fit for the Patriots may be available at 24 or 28.

The players that I have slotted for round 1 are Houston, Hall, Ross, Revis. Depending on what the Patriots want any of these players would be a very good 3rd CB with potential to start if Samuel leaves in 2008.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

In the Pats system I believe BB looks for the following in a CB.

A.) Quickness/Speed. The CB must have decent speed, not track fast but still decent, and most importantly super quickness and change of direction. Quick Twitch muscle fibers.
B.) Ball Skills. Ability to know find the ball and make a paly on the ball.
C.) Taclking/Jamming. If you can't tackle then BB won't need you for long. The ability to Jam, especially bigger receivers at the line is important also.
D.) Intanglibles (Character, intelligence, discipline and a total committment to football.)
E.) Fundamentals. CBs must possess decent technical ability and most importantly the ability to take to coaching as BB refines and improves an athletes techinque. (ie: Smooth back pedal, decent turn and run ability. form tackling, etc.)
F.) Experience. Preferably in the best college conferences and preferably a multi year starter. Also includes ability to stay on the field as opposed to the training room.

Things that are not as important to BB as some would think.

- Decent Size. BB does not care if a CB is not six foot. However he seems to like them meatier, around 185 plus pounds. Probably because they hold up better physically as tacklers.
- Loose Hips. While a decent indicator of change of direction ability, loose hips are not a prerequisite for quick twitch athletes.

Based on the above, I would picture BB draft board on CB's as follows: (Note on scoring. each of the 6 criteria above are judged on a 1 to 5 scale with 5 being the best.)

Hall (A=4, B=3,C=5,D=4,E=4,F=5) Total Score = 25.
Revis (A=3,B=5,C=4,D=4,E=4,F=4) Total Score = 24.
Ross (A=3,B=3,C=4,D=4,E=4,F=3) Total Score = 21.
Wilson (A=5,B=3,C=4,D=3,E=3,F=3) Total Score 21.
Wade (A=4,B=3,C=3,D=4,E=4,F=3) Total Score 21.
Irons (A=3,B=3,C=3,D=4,E=4,F=3) Total Score 20.
McCauley (A=5,B=3,C=3,D=1,E=4,F=4) Total Score = 20.
Houston (A=4,B=3,C=2,D=3,E=4,F=4) Total Score = 20.
Bennett (A-3,B=3,C=2,D=4,E=4,F=4) Total Score = 20.

Based on these results, this draft has two guys that would fit very well in the pats system and then 7 guys that are all bunched together each with a wart or two in their game.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The overall purpose here is to weed out positions and prospects from round one consideration. In this topic we'll focus on CBs.

• Rank the round CBs who represent the best fit for the Pats
• Which CBs may be available at either 24 or 28?
• Should we pass on all of them in the first and draft one later?

As reference, please read John Murphy's Top 5 CBs. Here they are in order:

1. Chris Houston
2. Leon Hall
3. Aaron Ross
4. Darrelle Revis
5. Marcus McCauley

Add your own round one CB if you like...

McCauley is off my board. I don't want him even as a 7th rounder...

 

[kas]

McCauley is off my board. I don't want him even as a 7th rounder...

What do you guys feel about UNLV's Eric Wright. I know he ran into some trouble at USC, but nothing seems to have come of that and he seems to have gotten his act together. IMO he's by far the best pure fit in our system. He has decent size, great ball skills, plays physical, and is effective in both man and zone. I think he could be a real target, maybe even at the end of the first.

 

[dryheat44]

What do you guys feel about UNLV's Eric Wright. I know he ran into some trouble at USC, but nothing seems to have come of that and he seems to have gotten his act together. IMO he's by far the best pure fit in our system. He has decent size, great ball skills, plays physical, and is effective in both man and zone. I think he could be a real target, maybe even at the end of the first.

I think he's a powder keg.

 

[SamBamsFan]

What do you guys feel about UNLV's Eric Wright. I know he ran into some trouble at USC, but nothing seems to have come of that and he seems to have gotten his act together. IMO he's by far the best pure fit in our system. He has decent size, great ball skills, plays physical, and is effective in both man and zone. I think he could be a real target, maybe even at the end of the first.

He is off my draft board. Please research a little that "some trouble". Mrs. Kraft would just about pitch a fit.

 

[mgteich]

This is probably one of the most relevant discussions we'll have with regard to the draft. The value and the need will be there. In the end the question is likely to be how high to trade up for Revis or Hall if Carriker is gone.

 

[cstjohn17]

This is probably one of the most relevant discussions we'll have with regard to the draft. The value and the need will be there. In the end the question is likely to be how high to trade up for Revis or Hall if Carriker is gone.

As much as I want to see it happen, I consider it a virtual lock that Carriker will be gone so lets get back to the CB talk. I don't think a trade is necessary.

The board is setup nicely for the Pats to look at CB, WR or S in rounds 1 and 3. There could be an oddball play for a tackle/guard (and of course TE) or they could be high on a LB but CB, WR & S appear to be the most viable options. These are also positions that could use more depth/playmakers.

This year there is no clear cut top 5 or even top 15 CB, opinion varies greatly on who is the best of the top corners. The CB run should start around pick 15 with the top 4 guys gone by the end of round 1.
1) Chris Houston
2) Leon Hall
3) Aaron Ross
4) Darrelle Revis
gap
gap -to use a popular methaphor
gap
7) Marcus McCauley - Not at the same level as the others IMO

This is a good thing for the Pats as Houston, Hall, Ross and Revis have the potential to be above average starters in the NFL within 1-2 years (see Ellis Hobbs). They all would also be very good 3rd or 4th CBs in year 1. Another reason I like CB in round 1 is that you have a talent at an expensive position tied up for 5 years.

Of the list I like Houston and Ross (adds value as a punt returner and ST contributor). All of them appear to have about equal upside (good to very good but not great <-- see Assante Samuel).

 

[mgteich]

It seems that almost all think we should stop dreaming of Carriker or Landry.

It seems most of us have a value of all four corners from 13-24
Hall, Revis, Houston, and Ross

If bb agrees, he will just wait and only trade up if he must. I guess some would be OK with Wilson also.
=================================

Would anyone be disappointed if any of the above were picked at 24, losing a Day Two pick if necessary?

 

[cstjohn17]

It seems that almost all think we should stop dreaming of Carriker or Landry.

It seems most of us have a value of all four corners from 13-24
Hall, Revis, Houston, and Ross

If bb agrees, he will just wait and only trade up if he must. I guess some would be OK with Wilson also.
=================================

Would anyone be disappointed if any of the above were picked at 24, losing a Day Two pick if necessary?

Dream away, Wilfork dropped and we benefitted, stranger things have happened...

 

[bosfan]

Fwiw......

Thought this an interesting stat from ESPN magazine draft guide - on which round that the 64 starting cb's last year were drafted.
1st - 36%
2nd - 27%
3rd - 13%
4th - 14%
5th - 0%
6th - 3%
7th - 2%
After 7th - 6%
They nail the corners pretty consistently, think Asante was a 4th.
----------
Safeties
1st -8%
2nd - 36%
3rd - 14%
4th - 9%
5th - 13%
6th - 5%
7th - 3%
after the 7th - 9%
Safety profile is really spastic.

 

[Seneschal2]

What do you guys feel about UNLV's Eric Wright. I know he ran into some trouble at USC, but nothing seems to have come of that and he seems to have gotten his act together. IMO he's by far the best pure fit in our system. He has decent size, great ball skills, plays physical, and is effective in both man and zone. I think he could be a real target, maybe even at the end of the first.

kas, I really do like his skills and think he'll be a fine prospect for another team. For the Pats however, I get an uneasy feeling from reading how he was arrested in LA in 2005 on suspicion of rape. And that police also found 136 Ecstasy pills in his apartment. Charges were never filed -- but do we really want to take a chance?

I've been wrong before, but Wright is off my board as a character risk -- not as a talent.

 

[Water Boy]

This is probably one of the most relevant discussions we'll have with regard to the draft.

I like Revis or Hall in the first round. I'm not sure I'd take Ross, Wright, Houston or McCauley early. Josh Wilson is intriguing.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

In the Pats system I believe BB looks for the following in a CB.

A.) Quickness/Speed. The CB must have decent speed, not track fast but still decent, and most importantly super quickness and change of direction. Quick Twitch muscle fibers.
B.) Ball Skills. Ability to know find the ball and make a paly on the ball.
C.) Taclking/Jamming. If you can't tackle then BB won't need you for long. The ability to Jam, especially bigger receivers at the line is important also.
D.) Intanglibles (Character, intelligence, discipline and a total committment to football.)
E.) Fundamentals. CBs must possess decent technical ability and most importantly the ability to take to coaching as BB refines and improves an athletes techinque. (ie: Smooth back pedal, decent turn and run ability. form tackling, etc.)
F.) Experience. Preferably in the best college conferences and preferably a multi year starter. Also includes ability to stay on the field as opposed to the training room.

Things that are not as important to BB as some would think.

- Decent Size. BB does not care if a CB is not six foot. However he seems to like them meatier, around 185 plus pounds. Probably because they hold up better physically as tacklers.
- Loose Hips. While a decent indicator of change of direction ability, loose hips are not a prerequisite for quick twitch athletes.

Based on the above, I would picture BB draft board on CB's as follows: (Note on scoring. each of the 6 criteria above are judged on a 1 to 5 scale with 5 being the best.)

Hall (A=4, B=3,C=5,D=4,E=4,F=5) Total Score = 25.
Revis (A=3,B=5,C=4,D=4,E=4,F=4) Total Score = 24.
Ross (A=3,B=3,C=4,D=4,E=4,F=3) Total Score = 21.
Wilson (A=5,B=3,C=4,D=3,E=3,F=3) Total Score 21.
Wade (A=4,B=3,C=3,D=4,E=4,F=3) Total Score 21.
Irons (A=3,B=3,C=3,D=4,E=4,F=3) Total Score 20.
McCauley (A=5,B=3,C=3,D=1,E=4,F=4) Total Score = 20.
Houston (A=4,B=3,C=2,D=3,E=4,F=4) Total Score = 20.
Bennett (A-3,B=3,C=2,D=4,E=4,F=4) Total Score = 20.

Based on these results, this draft has two guys that would fit very well in the pats system and then 7 guys that are all bunched together each with a wart or two in their game.

Ochmed,

Do you have time to extend this to middle/late round candidates? A.J. Davis, Talley, the Baylor CBs, and Eric Weddel as a CB projection are of interest. Has Hughes dropped out of the second round for you?

 

[mgteich]

Re: Fwiw......

Statistics are always interesting. How about another conclusion:

Almost 2/3 of starting corners are 1st or 2nd round choices. 3/4 are Day One choices. The place to get a corner is a top 3 draft pick. Samuel is the exception, not the rule. Even for safeties, 58% are Day One choices.

Let's ask questions the other way round.

What percentage of top 16 pick corners or safeties are starting in their third year (excluding players that are out injured). I believe the percentage is very high for corner AND for safety.

What percentage of 17-32 pick and of Round 2 and Round 3 corners are starting in their 3rd year. The percentage will decrease rapidly as you enter the third round. Ask the pats management!

My conclusion is that defensive backfield picks are great values on Day One. Given the qulaity available, I expect two such picks for the patriots this year, as well as a Day 2 pick or two.

Thought this an interesting stat from ESPN magazine draft guide - on which round that the 64 starting cb's last year were drafted.
1st - 36%
2nd - 27%
3rd - 13%
4th - 14%
5th - 0%
6th - 3%
7th - 2%
After 7th - 6%
They nail the corners pretty consistently, think Asante was a 4th.
----------
Safeties
1st -8%
2nd - 36%
3rd - 14%
4th - 9%
5th - 13%
6th - 5%
7th - 3%
after the 7th - 9%
Safety profile is really spastic.