Banjo
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
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2013 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN
Here are the scenarios.
If all four teams lose in Week 17:
Baltimore wins tie break over NY Jets and San Diego based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Miami (NY Jets wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in division games).
If all four teams win in Week 17:
Miami wins tie break over San Diego and Baltimore based on best win percentage in conference games.
Head-to-head tiebreakers:
Baltimore beat Miami in Week 5. Miami beat San Diego in Week 11.
If Baltimore and San Diego tie, Ravens would have a better conference record so they get in.
If two teams ties, those tiebreakers will decide it. Yet, Miami can win a multi-team tiebreaker because H2Hs are thrown out the window and it's all about a better conference record. This is why they need the Chargers to win and tie their record as well.
As for the scenario where the Steelers are the only one of the four to win, this is their tiebreaker:
Pittsburgh wins tie break over NY Jets and San Diego based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Miami (NY Jets wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in division games). Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Baltimore (Pittsburgh wins tie break over Baltimore based on best win percentage in division games).
Here are the scenarios.
If all four teams lose in Week 17:
Baltimore wins tie break over NY Jets and San Diego based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Miami (NY Jets wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in division games).
If all four teams win in Week 17:
Miami wins tie break over San Diego and Baltimore based on best win percentage in conference games.
Head-to-head tiebreakers:
Baltimore beat Miami in Week 5. Miami beat San Diego in Week 11.
If Baltimore and San Diego tie, Ravens would have a better conference record so they get in.
If two teams ties, those tiebreakers will decide it. Yet, Miami can win a multi-team tiebreaker because H2Hs are thrown out the window and it's all about a better conference record. This is why they need the Chargers to win and tie their record as well.
As for the scenario where the Steelers are the only one of the four to win, this is their tiebreaker:
Pittsburgh wins tie break over NY Jets and San Diego based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Miami (NY Jets wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in division games). Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Baltimore (Pittsburgh wins tie break over Baltimore based on best win percentage in division games).