Why We Won't Win It All

[letekro]

Red Zone efficiency is the difference b/w winning and losing in the NFL (and yesterday was a good example of that). Guys aren't open in the red zone like they are in the other parts of the field so you need to have guys that can catch the ball when covered. Unless the miraculous happens and Dobson returns healthy and fully integrated into the offense, the Pats do not have that Post-Gronk, and therefore I think they are facing overwhelming odds to win games against quality opponents in the playoffs. The below is just an amazing stat illustrating that the Patriots are an elite red zone offense with Gronk and a terrible one without him.

Since 2011, quarterback Tom Brady is 21-of-34 when throwing to Gronkowski in the end zone. On passes in the end zone to other targets over that span, Brady is 26-of-97 with four interceptions.

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

pats are 10 of 26 in the redzone without gronk this year IIRC

That's a huge difference

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

pats are 10 of 26 in the redzone without gronk this year IIRC

That's a huge difference

Kenbrell and Aaron Dobson should help that..

 

[Tunescribe]

Oh joy, another wonderful crystal ball thread. :bricks: I don't care how "realistic" the perspective is, spelling out doom before it happens serves nothing and nobody.

 

[dales804]

Oh joy, another wonderful crystal ball thread. :bricks: I don't care how "realistic" the perspective is, spelling out doom before it happens serves nothing and nobody.

Not true. It allows some kind of fans and commentators to say "I told you so" when the Patriots don't win the SB.

 

[Tunescribe]

Not true. It allows some kind of fans and commentators to say "I told you so" when the Patriots don't win the SB.

Sort of an odd way to be a "fan," wouldn't you say? I don't get it. I always thought being a fan of a team was supposed to be a positive thing, not an exercise in being proven right at negativity.

 

[Joker]

never fails....half this fanbase WANTS failure all the time...it must be to prop up their puny egos or some Freudian shyt

 

[dales804]

Sort of an odd way to be a "fan," wouldn't you say? I don't get it. I always thought being a fan of a team was supposed to be a positive thing, not an exercise in being proven right at negativity.

I agree completely. I don't understand that mentality. Doesn't that make it almost a bad thing, then, when the Patriots do win? The reality is 31 teams aren't going to win the SB. It's very tough to do. I don't care how the Patriots look in any game so long as they win. And when they lose it sucks, sure, but stopping belief that the team you're a "fan" of can win must suck.

 

[Kontradiction]

When did letekro indicate that he wanted the team to fail? Or are you guys actually arguing that this team has been good in the red zone this season without Gronk? Either way, Dobson is going to have to be a reliable target when they get down there.

 

[jmt57]

Red zone efficiency is certainly one stat worth looking at, but I would not go so far as to proclaim that is so important that it is the difference between winning and losing in the NFL.


First, a look at some of the top ten Red-Zone offenses in the NFL in 2013.

3. Dallas (70.5%); currently 7-7, 10th in the NFC playoff picture
4. Detroit (61.2%); currently 7-6, 8th in the NFC
5. Oakland (59.5%); 4-10, 13th in the AFC, eliminated
8. Cleveland (58.1%); 4-10, 15th, eliminated
9. Tennessee (57.8%); 5-9, 11th, eliminated


Next, among the bottom five there are a pair of potential playoff teams:

31. Philadelphia (45.8%); 8-6, currently #3 seed in the NFC
28. Green Bay (49.1%); 7-6-1, a half-game off the NFC North lead


Now a look at some of the top Red Zone defenses:

2. Baltimore (39.4%); 7-6, currently in 7th in the AFC
3. Detroit (40.0%); a top-5 RZ team in both categories is 7-6
5. NY Jets (45.5%); 6-8, 10th, eliminated
6. Tampa Bay (45.5%); 4-10, 14th, eliminated
7. Buffalo (48.9%); 5-9, 12th, eliminated
9. St. Louis (52.7%); 6-8, 11th, eliminated

And among the worst red zone defenses are the #25 Colts (clinched a playoff spot), #26 Denver (#1 seed) and #27 San Diego (7-7, on the bubble one game behind Miami).



While I do agree that red zone play is important (and that it needs to improve for the Patriots), I would also suggest that it is not an absolute difference between winning and losing in the NFL.

 

[Tunescribe]

never fails....half this fanbase WANTS failure all the time...it must be to prop up their puny egos or some Freudian shyt

I think there are a lot of despairing basement dwellers out there trying to bend reality to fit their dark world view.

 

[letekro]

pats are 10 of 26 in the redzone without gronk this year IIRC

That's a huge difference

That would put them dead last in the league. Too much to overcome against good teams, IMO.

Oh, and for most of the clueless posters ITT, the ability to think rationally does not make one less of a fan. Hope springs eternal, but the rational mind has to conclude that their chances of winning it all are remote without Gronkowski.

 

[Gronkandez]

Agree with OP. Can't be throwing end zone fades to Edelman and Amendola and expect them to climb the ladder and make those plays. Dobson, on paper, is would be a much better target although with him they generally do the off shoulder throw.

This is the only reason they won't win it all though. With Hightower having to play in coverage and with Solder out it's a bloodbath out there.

 

[SalemPats]

I'm an honest fan, I know to win the SB this year will be extremely difficult with the injuries and changes we have had. Our defense went from top 10 to the bottom 10 and the Gronk injury and Aaron murder case really altered our red zone play.

Saying all that, we have the best QB in the game, great speed and BB can pull some magic. If we get a 1st round bye, we will play the Bengals/Colts/Chiefs in the divisional round. They all have holes and their defense is not what they used to be. I think we can win that one. Then we'll have to go into Denver and if it's cold and snowy we can pull out a win. It will be hard, but not impossible

 

[goheels22002]

Red Zone efficiency is the difference b/w winning and losing in the NFL (and yesterday was a good example of that). Guys aren't open in the red zone like they are in the other parts of the field so you need to have guys that can catch the ball when covered. Unless the miraculous happens and Dobson returns healthy and fully integrated into the offense, the Pats do not have that Post-Gronk, and therefore I think they are facing overwhelming odds to win games against quality opponents in the playoffs. The below is just an amazing stat illustrating that the Patriots are an elite red zone offense with Gronk and a terrible one without him.

Since 2011, quarterback Tom Brady is 21-of-34 when throwing to Gronkowski in the end zone. On passes in the end zone to other targets over that span, Brady is 26-of-97 with four interceptions.

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

You make a good point about the Red Zone, but your thread title is unrelated to their playoff chances.

Right now the Pats could be any of the top four seeds. I can see matchups I like and matchups I think bounce the Pats out of the playoffs. The Red Zone is but one of a zillion factors that determine the playoff run.

If the Patriots have to play the Dolphins and Colts at home to advance in the playoffs I like their chances to make the Super Bowl. If they get Tony Romo and Jerry Jones in a blizzard in NY in the Super Bowl, I like the Patriots. Romo will see to it that Patriots win.

I suggest you go into advanced options and change your thread title to something that includes the words Red Zone.

 

[50-yard-line]

That would put them dead last in the league. Too much to overcome against good teams, IMO.

Oh, and for most of the clueless posters ITT, the ability to think rationally does not make one less of a fan. Hope springs eternal, but the rational mind has to conclude that their chances of winning it all are remote without Gronkowski.

It's all in the way it's worded.

"Why we won't win it all" is definitive.

"What we must overcome to win it all" is hopeful and positive.

Also, they've got some red zone challenges, to be sure - yesterday was a clear indication of that, but statistically speaking, the playoffs are what's known as a SSS (small sample size). 3 games, several trips to the red zone...success percentage can widely vary based on one or two possessions.

 

[PatsDeb]

Just the headline I want to see on a Monday morning after a disappointing loss...

 

[condon84]

We can still win. McD needs to be more creative in the red zone. With our running game, there is no reason why we can't keep defenses off-balance down there.

The two things we are horrible at, Red Zone efficiency and third down defense, can be fixed with some proper coaching, creativity, and some balls and willingness to do something different.

 

[SVN]

They need to get back to ridley and run in the red zone. He as a sub back here and there is wasting his ability. Fumbles be damned. Take a chance and go with it.

 

[JackBauer]

I tend to agree with the OP. The injuries to an already shaky offensive line combined with the complete lack of consistent production at tight end is going to make any sustained playoff success a tall order.

Assuming we even made it to the Super Bowl, thinking about what Seattle would do to our offensive line is the stuff nightmares are made of.