Patriots have a top 10 NFL defense

[BlueThunder]

The D still has too many moving parts due to injuries. I think giving the D a few games with the same cast of characters in the starting lineup might improve things just a tad.

 

[makoute]

I'm going to hold off on the accolades until they play a lot better than they did on Sunday.

Or the past few games overall.

 

[KamikazeKnight]

This is also skewed from early in the season when the defense was actually good.

That's a pretty stupid thing to say. You don't take bits and pieces and claim that one piece is more relevant than the others. You should be taking the entire body of work into consideration, and right now their body of work places them at #10 by points allowed.

Simple concept, really.:rocker:

 

[aztecafut]

That's a pretty stupid thing to say. You don't take bits and pieces and claim that one piece is more relevant than the others. You should be taking the entire body of work into consideration, and right now their body of work places them at #10 by points allowed.

Simple concept, really.:rocker:

Maybe 'skewed' isn't the correct word but he still makes a valid point.. If we were top 5 defense after five weeks when we had everybody healthy and we've dropped down to top 10 after all the injuries, the way the defense is playing now they'll probably drop out of the top 15 by the end of the season.

Especially once the playoffs start, the only thing that matters is how you're playing at the moment not how good you were at the beginning of the season. Even though some people might hate to admit it, we're not playing like a top 10 defense right now. Maybe not even top 20.

 

[ivanvamp]

2013 NFL Team Total Stats - National Football League - ESPN



That's pretty interesting...

Points Allowed
- First 5 games: 21, 10, 3, 23, 13 = 14.0 per game
- Last 8 games: 27, 30, 17, 31, 24, 31, 31, 26 = 27.1 per game

So, uh, yeah. That 27.1 per game would put them 27th in the NFL. In other words, the defense was outstanding at the beginning of the season, but injuries have really caught up to them (Kelly, Wilfork, Mayo, Gregory, Talib, Dennard, etc.) and right now they're one of the worst defenses in the league by almost any reasonable measure.

Doesn't mean they can't make a run at the Lombardi….Heck, the awful 2006 Colts' defense played well in the playoffs.

 

[aztecafut]

Another thing to add... Patriots defenses in past years seem to improve as the season goes on. Unfortunately this year due to the amount of injuries they've had they seem to be regressing. As the playoffs get closer and closer, that is not a good thing.

 

[PP2]

This argument has failed time and time again. Just like every other stat that goes into ranking a defense, yards allowed is significant.

How so?

Yards aren't significant if you continually pile it up yet end the majority of your drives with FG's or turnovers.

And as far as BB's defensive philosophy goes, we give up plenty of yards.

 

[captain stone]

Last time I checked, yards allowed means nothing. It's about points allowed and takeaways. The rest is noise.

No, the rest is not noise. Take a look at Tedy Bruschi's Defensive index:

Tedy Bruschi's defensive index - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Red Zone % is below average, and 3rd-Down % is absolutely putrid. They're no longer
creating turnovers, and their Points Allowed average is increasing.

As others have mentioned, this defense is getting worse, not better (which used to be
the case in years past).

 

[RobertWeathers]

Points Allowed
- First 5 games: 21, 10, 3, 23, 13 = 14.0 per game
- Last 8 games: 27, 30, 17, 31, 24, 31, 31, 26 = 27.1 per game

So, uh, yeah. That 27.1 per game would put them 27th in the NFL. In other words, the defense was outstanding at the beginning of the season, but injuries have really caught up to them (Kelly, Wilfork, Mayo, Gregory, Talib, Dennard, etc.) and right now they're one of the worst defenses in the league by almost any reasonable measure.

Doesn't mean they can't make a run at the Lombardi….Heck, the awful 2006 Colts' defense played well in the playoffs.

The 2006 Colts D sucked in the regular season and got lucky with great matchups in the playoffs. The KC offense was terrible. So was BAL. They let up 27 offensive points to the WORST BB/TB Pats offense in the BB era and the Rex Grossman-led Bears were a joke.

 

[Kontradiction]

How so?

Yards aren't significant if you continually pile it up yet end the majority of your drives with FG's or turnovers.

Pretty simple, actually. If your defense is giving up more yards to the opposition, it's giving up more first downs, which gives up more T.O.P. which, in turn, keeps your offense off the field where they cannot churn up yards, T.O.P. and score. Look at the game last night for a good example. San Diego didn't put up a 40burger, but they were moving the ball slowly and eating up yards throughout drives which, in turn, kept the league's top offense off the field. Those yards played their part in San Diego winning the game. Look at our defense for another example. At the beginning of the year, we were allowing less total yards per game than we are now. As the yards per game went up, so did the points per game.

And as far as BB's defensive philosophy goes, we give up plenty of yards.

That was in the rebuilding period. In the dynasty years, even after the rules changes too effect, the defense didn't allow a whole lot of YPG. From 2010-2012 the team was allowing a lot of YPG but the red zone defense was going enough to keep the PPG down. Coach apparently wasn't happy with that because he made a lot of moves (such as bringing in Talib and moving McCourty to safety) to limit the yards, and it was effective until injuries took effect.

Look, I'm not saying that yards is the most significant stat. As a matter of fact, I would put it like this in terms of importance...

1. Points
2. Turnovers
3. Opposing QB rating
4. Yards

Bottom line is that ever stat that goes into rating a defense is significant. Yards are no different.

 

[supafly]

That's a pretty stupid thing to say. You don't take bits and pieces and claim that one piece is more relevant than the others. You should be taking the entire body of work into consideration, and right now their body of work places them at #10 by points allowed.

Simple concept, really.:rocker:

If you want to compare the first 5 games of the season's defense, which gave up about 13 pts, to the past 8 games defense, which is giving up over 27 pts per game--go right ahead.

The truth is that they couldn't be any more night and day. The defense that our team has the capacity to field right now is giving up 27+ pts per game. That is awful.

The one and only reason they are in the top 10 is because we had a good defense in the first month or so of the season. September is a long way away at this point of the year, and none of Wilfork, Mayo, Kelly etc are coming back anytime soon.

 

[PP2]

Pretty simple, actually. If your defense is giving up more yards to the opposition, it's giving up more first downs, which gives up more T.O.P. which, in turn, keeps your offense off the field where they cannot churn up yards, T.O.P. and score. Look at the game last night for a good example. San Diego didn't put up a 40burger, but they were moving the ball slowly and eating up yards throughout drives which, in turn, kept the league's top offense off the field. Those yards played their part in San Diego winning the game. Look at our defense for another example. At the beginning of the year, we were allowing less total yards per game than we are now. As the yards per game went up, so did the points per game.

No, it's not "pretty simple."

In the last 3 games we've won, we lost TOP in two of them.

In the Panthers game, we won the TOP.

Yards or TOP don't really matter if you're not executing (e.g., red zone efficiency). In the end pretty much all that matters is the number of points you give up as a defense.

 

[Deus Irae]

No, it's not "pretty simple."

In the last 3 games we've won, we lost TOP in two of them.

In the Panthers game, we won the TOP.

Yards or TOP don't really matter if you're not executing (e.g., red zone efficiency). In the end pretty much all that matters is the number of points you give up as a defense.

Come on, now. I'm not sure that you could have chosen a worse 3 game, well 4 game, example if you'd tried.

 

[Kontradiction]

No, it's not "pretty simple."

It is. You just don't want to admit as much because your point just got absolutely decimated in my last post.

In the last 3 games we've won, we lost TOP in two of them

In the Broncos game, controlling TOP by gaining yardage was a huge catalyst in coming back. In the Browns and Texans games, if not for some Brady brilliance in the second half and fourth quarter (along with an onside recovery), those are lost games.

In the Panthers game, we won the TOP.

And should have won the game if not for a picked up flag.

Yards or TOP don't really matter if you're not executing (e.g., red zone efficiency). In the end pretty much all that matters is the number of points you give up as a defense.

As I showed in my last post when pointing out our defense's YPG and PPG given up in the beginning of the season vs. now, yards and TOP effect the amount of points you allow the opponent. But I do agree that nothing else matters if you're not executing.

 

[PP2]

It is. You just don't want to admit as much because your point just got absolutely decimated in my last post.

In the Broncos game, controlling TOP by gaining yardage was a huge catalyst in coming back. In the Browns and Texans games, if not for some Brady brilliance in the second half and fourth quarter (along with an onside recovery), those are lost games.

And should have won the game if not for a picked up flag.

As I showed in my last post when pointing out our defense's YPG and PPG given up in the beginning of the season vs. now, yards and TOP effect the amount of points you allow the opponent. But I do agree that nothing else matters if you're not executing.

Absolutely decimated..?

The best metric for assessing if you have a good defense is the amount of points a defense gives up on average. That more than anything is the best indication of whether you're going to win a game or not. PPG includes red or end zone efficiency, TOP and yards don't.

It doesn't matter if you're marching down the field all day long if you don't get into the end zone. That's why yards aren't that significant when assessing a D if what you're doing is only giving up a FG and not a TD or if you've gotten a 3 and out on your end of the field rather than their 10 or 20. The bottom line, as BB likes to say, is what ends up on the scoreboard. Everything else is bull****.

 

[Deus Irae]

Absolutely decimated..?

The best metric for assessing if you have a good defense is the amount of points a defense gives up on average. That more than anything is the best indication of whether you're going to win a game or not. PPG includes red or end zone efficiency, TOP and yards don't.

It doesn't matter if you're marching down the field all day long if you don't get into the end zone. That's why yards aren't that significant when assessing a D if what you're doing is only giving up a FG and not a TD or if you've gotten a 3 and out on your end of the field rather than their 10 or 20. The bottom line, as BB likes to say, is what ends up on the scoreboard. Everything else is bull****.

Following up on the 4 game example:

Carolina game. Patriots are in excellent position to win if the officials make the right call at the end.

Denver game. Game-specific plan to allow for the Broncos to run and make yards over the middle with the tight ends, due to wind and Manning's poor arm strength/duck tosses, also significantly impacted by 7 turnovers. Still took overtime, and the wind again

Texans game. Patriots win TOP battle

Browns game. Patriots win on strength of a recovered onside kick, not usual football. Browns win game if not for that historic onsides recovery.

 

[Brady6]

2013 NFL Team Total Stats - National Football League - ESPN
That's pretty interesting...

I am curious what is interesting about this to you? Is it that the common belief is the team is improved defensively over last season and the numbers don’t indicate that or is it that the defense is top ten despite all the injuries?

2012: Allowed 331 points (20.7/g) which ranked 9th in the NFL and they allowed 5972 yards (373.25/g).
2013: Allowed 287 points (22.1/g) which ranks 10th in the NFL and allowed 4840 yards (372.30/g).