God's Message And Some Draft History

[Gon_Trevil]

People of the earth: a top 5 draft pick does not bring the Messiah. Quite the contrary...

You need to stop thinking of high draft picks as some kind of Holy Grail and look at it in terms of players. A Top 5 overall pick is just that, one player. A very expensive one, at that. Which is why I'm always somewhat irritated at hearing people say it'd be the dumbest thing in the world for a team to trade a Top 5 pick for a mere 2 first rounders. I mean, how many Top 5 picks this millennium have turned out to be worth 2 first rounders? Very few.

Here's a little draft history:

2000 Draft
1. Courtney Brown
2. Lavar Arrington
3. Chris Samuels
4. Peter Warrick
5. Jamal Lewis

2001 Draft
1. Michael Vick
2. Leonard Davis
3. Gerard Warren
4. Justin Smith
5. LaDainian Tomlinson

2002 Draft
1. David Carr
2. Julius Peppers
3. Joey Harrington
4. Mike Williams
5. Quentin Jammer

2003 Draft
1. Carson Palmer
2. Charles Rogers
3. Andre Johnson
4. Dewayne Robertson
5. Terrence Newman

2004 Draft
1. Eli Manning
2. Robert Gallery
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Phillip Rivers
5. Sean Taylor

2005 Draft
1. Alex Smith
2. Ronnie Brown
3. Braylon Edwards
4. Cedric Benson
5. Cadillac Williams

I'll leave the 2006 draft out of this because they've only had one year.

Now, for how many of those guys would you be willing to give up two first rounders? LaDainian and Palmer, and perhaps Fitzgerald. Three guys. OUT OF THIRTY TOP 5 PICKS THIS MILLENNIUM!

At least by keeping both our #24 and #28 picks, we have two chances at landing an impact player.

I'll make one last example: In 2004, the Patriots had the #21 and #32 picks in the draft. They selected Vince Wilfork and Ben Watson, respectively.

Would you trade BOTH of them for any of the players in the Top 5 in that draft? There are 2 QBs: One is Bledsoe incarnate; the other proved he can play well with the best OL, RB, and TE in the league. For obvious reasons, we wouldn't have picked either of those guys. That leaves Gallery, Fitzgerald, and Taylor. I'll even give you the rest of the 1st round picks in that draft, just in case you think the Pats would have taken someone else.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/general/draft/2004.jsp

Would you trade both Wilfork and Watson for any of those guys? And this is before even taking into account the guaranteed money you have to fork over to a possible Top 5 bust.

I'll pass, and keep my team well stocked with the Wilforks and Watsons of the world while you keep swinging and missing praying for your Messiah in the top 5.

 

[Tucker]

good post. I'll have to agree. I'd take 2 1st round picks over 1 top 5

 

[primetime]

I'd give up my first twos for Andre Johnson without thinking about it. He'd be the best WR in football if he played on a legitimate team, I have no doubts.

The question is, are any of these guys worth the two players picked at #24 and #28, historically? Let's find out:

2000:
#24: Ahmed Plummer (CB, SF)
#28: Rob Morris (LB, Ind)

I'd trade those two for just about any of those top 5. Only Keith Bulluck, at #30, was a worthy pick after #24, too (which includes world-famous bust R. Jay Soward). Very weak 2nd round, as well, though Drew Brees was the first selection in it.

2001:
#24: Willie Middlebrooks (DB, Den)
#28: Derrick Gibson (DB, Oak)

Two complete stiffs. Reggie Wayne went at #30, Todd Heap at #31, Alge Crumpler at #35, and Chad Johnson the following pick. There were some other good picks in the 2nd round as well.

2002:
#24: Ed Reed (S, Bal)
#28: Jerramy Stevens (TE, Sea)

Well, I'd trade just about anyone not named Tom Brady, Ladainian Tomlinson, or Peyton Manning in the league for Ed Reed, so that's one #24 pick I'd like to keep (and Stevens isn't awful, either). The end of the 1st round saw Charles Grant and Lito Sheppard at #25 and #26, but the 2nd round was pretty weak, with famous Patriot names Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, Deion Branch, and Andre Davis all getting selected.

2003:
#24: Dallas Clark (TE, Ind)
#28: Andre Woolfolk (CB, Ten)

Clark is a stud, but Woolfolk... well, I remember he was a Senior Bowl riser who was considered very raw, but he's apparently become a decent cornerback despite injuries. Notable picks include Larry Johnson (#27), Nick Barnett (#29), Nnamdi Asomugha (#31), Charles Tillman (#35), Eugene Wilson (#36), and Rashean Mathis (#39).

2004:
#24: Steven Jackson (RB, StL)
#28: Chris Gamble (CB, Car)

Here we get a guy who's becoming a very good running back and a good cornerback in Gamble. Notable selections after this include Mike Jenkins (#29), Kevin Jones (#30), Ben Watson (#32), Karlos Dansby (#33), Chris Snee (#34), Julius Jones (#43), and Bob Sanders (#44). This is probably the best year of all for the end of the first/early second, as even guys who I didn't include on this list have become contributors, if not household names.

2005:
#24: Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
#28: Luis Castillo (DT, SD)

Well, one hit and one question mark. Castillo's turned into a very solid member of San Diego's defensive line, but the jury's still out on Rodgers because of Favre. Notable picks after this include Jason Campbell (#25), Heath Miller (#30), Logan Mankins (#32), Reggie Brown (#33), and Lofa Tatupu (#45).

Just for sake of comparison, here's 2006 (including 1-5):
#1: Mario Williams (DE, Hou)
#2: Reggie Bush (RB, NO)
#3: Vince Young (QB, Ten)
#4: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (OT, NYJ)
#5: AJ Hawk (LB, GB)

#24: Jonathan Joseph (CB, Cin)
#28: Mercedes Lewis (TE, Jax)

Early looks show alot of potential from the top 5 and nothing much from the 24 and 28 spot, but it's still way too early to call.

Here's some other notables (bad or good) from the past 15 years or so at 24-32 or so, for comparison:
Andy Katzenmoyer (#28, 1999)
Patrick Kerney (#30, 1999)
Al Wilson (#31, 1999)... could've had him instead of Big Kat... d'oh
Donovin Darius (#25, 1998)
Alan Faneca (#26, 1998)
John Avery (#29, 1998)... CFL superstar
Chad Scott (#24, 1997)
Jim Druckenmiller (#26, 1997)
Rae Carruth (#27, 1997)... Death Row superstar
Trevor Pryce (#28, 1997)
Chris Canty (#29, 1997)... Canty was so bad that he actually got cut from an AFL2 team a couple years ago (not even the top Arena League, their minor league)
Eric Moulds (#24, 1996)
Ray Lewis (#26, 1996)
Derrick Brooks (#28, 1995)

That's about it. There have been many more stiffs at the ends of rounds as there have been at the beginning. It's just the guys who go in the top 5 who bust are usually legendary, guys towards the end just fade out and go their ways as average backups or eventually just disappear from football. The only problem here comes from money. It's far more likely that you'll get a superstar in the first 5 picks, but a bust up there on the level of a Ryan Leaf or Tim Couch means you're paying ridiculous money and potentially crippling your franchise for years to come.

 

[Gon_Trevil]

I'd give up my first twos for Andre Johnson without thinking about it. He'd be the best WR in football if he played on a legitimate team, I have no doubts.

The question is, are any of these guys worth the two players picked at #24 and #28, historically? Let's find out:

2000:
#24: Ahmed Plummer (CB, SF)
#28: Rob Morris (LB, Ind)

I'd trade those two for just about any of those top 5. Only Keith Bulluck, at #30, was a worthy pick after #24, too (which includes world-famous bust R. Jay Soward). Very weak 2nd round, as well, though Drew Brees was the first selection in it.

2001:
#24: Willie Middlebrooks (DB, Den)
#28: Derrick Gibson (DB, Oak)

Two complete stiffs. Reggie Wayne went at #30, Todd Heap at #31, Alge Crumpler at #35, and Chad Johnson the following pick. There were some other good picks in the 2nd round as well.

2002:
#24: Ed Reed (S, Bal)
#28: Jerramy Stevens (TE, Sea)

Well, I'd trade just about anyone not named Tom Brady, Ladainian Tomlinson, or Peyton Manning in the league for Ed Reed, so that's one #24 pick I'd like to keep (and Stevens isn't awful, either). The end of the 1st round saw Charles Grant and Lito Sheppard at #25 and #26, but the 2nd round was pretty weak, with famous Patriot names Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, Deion Branch, and Andre Davis all getting selected.

2003:
#24: Dallas Clark (TE, Ind)
#28: Andre Woolfolk (CB, Ten)

Clark is a stud, but Woolfolk... well, I remember he was a Senior Bowl riser who was considered very raw, but he's apparently become a decent cornerback despite injuries. Notable picks include Larry Johnson (#27), Nick Barnett (#29), Nnamdi Asomugha (#31), Charles Tillman (#35), Eugene Wilson (#36), and Rashean Mathis (#39).

2004:
#24: Steven Jackson (RB, StL)
#28: Chris Gamble (CB, Car)

Here we get a guy who's becoming a very good running back and a good cornerback in Gamble. Notable selections after this include Mike Jenkins (#29), Kevin Jones (#30), Ben Watson (#32), Karlos Dansby (#33), Chris Snee (#34), Julius Jones (#43), and Bob Sanders (#44). This is probably the best year of all for the end of the first/early second, as even guys who I didn't include on this list have become contributors, if not household names.

2005:
#24: Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
#28: Luis Castillo (DT, SD)

Well, one hit and one question mark. Castillo's turned into a very solid member of San Diego's defensive line, but the jury's still out on Rodgers because of Favre. Notable picks after this include Jason Campbell (#25), Heath Miller (#30), Logan Mankins (#32), Reggie Brown (#33), and Lofa Tatupu (#45).

Just for sake of comparison, here's 2006 (including 1-5):
#1: Mario Williams (DE, Hou)
#2: Reggie Bush (RB, NO)
#3: Vince Young (QB, Ten)
#4: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (OT, NYJ)
#5: AJ Hawk (LB, GB)

#24: Jonathan Joseph (CB, Cin)
#28: Mercedes Lewis (TE, Jax)

Early looks show alot of potential from the top 5 and nothing much from the 24 and 28 spot, but it's still way too early to call.

Here's some other notables (bad or good) from the past 15 years or so at 24-32 or so, for comparison:
Andy Katzenmoyer (#28, 1999)
Patrick Kerney (#30, 1999)
Al Wilson (#31, 1999)... could've had him instead of Big Kat... d'oh
Donovin Darius (#25, 1998)
Alan Faneca (#26, 1998)
John Avery (#29, 1998)... CFL superstar
Chad Scott (#24, 1997)
Jim Druckenmiller (#26, 1997)
Rae Carruth (#27, 1997)... Death Row superstar
Trevor Pryce (#28, 1997)
Chris Canty (#29, 1997)... Canty was so bad that he actually got cut from an AFL2 team a couple years ago (not even the top Arena League, their minor league)
Eric Moulds (#24, 1996)
Ray Lewis (#26, 1996)
Derrick Brooks (#28, 1995)

That's about it. There have been many more stiffs at the ends of rounds as there have been at the beginning. It's just the guys who go in the top 5 who bust are usually legendary, guys towards the end just fade out and go their ways as average backups or eventually just disappear from football. The only problem here comes from money. It's far more likely that you'll get a superstar in the first 5 picks, but a bust up there on the level of a Ryan Leaf or Tim Couch means you're paying ridiculous money and potentially crippling your franchise for years to come.

Most of your post actually proves my point right. And I understand that there will be more stiffs at the end of the round than at the beginning, but the main difference is: Two first rounders in the 20s give you 2 chances to get a good player, with the possibility of both of them being good if you have a savvy GM (which the Patriots do); and you can sign them to nice cap friendly contracts instead of messing up your cap situation with a top 5 pick who, while he may turn out to be a decent player, will probably hinder you more cap-wise than he will help on the field.

 

[smg93]

I can see that both of you have defended both sides very well. If I had to choose however, the draft is such a crapshoot that I would almost always take the two picks rather than trade both to move up the draft order. That's just based on the simple fact that you give yourself more chances to succeed, the more picks you have.

 

[Willie55]

This just proves the draft is a crap shoot and clowns like Mel Kiper have made a living out from it.

 

[homerpatsfan]

i have to agree two picks are better than one.

 

[homerpatsfan]

one player does not make a team! there is no masiah in football.

 

[homerpatsfan]

Messiah, Sp

 

[Fencer]

Except for Calvin Johnson, nobody in or near the top 5 fills anything close to a need on this team.

Leron Landry is next-closest.

Paying up for a rookie replacement for Matt Light or our OLB trio would be beyond overkill.

 

[Fumblerooski]

Except for Calvin Johnson, nobody in or near the top 5 fills anything close to a need on this team.

Leron Landry is next-closest.

Paying up for a rookie replacement for Matt Light or our OLB trio would be beyond overkill.

This team is all set at starters if they sign a #1 WR in FA. Teams don't normally draft subs in the first round.

Therefore, they should focus on replacing those players who will be going NEXT year. On my list, I would have Bruschi, Rodney and maybe Samuel. Those are the players they need to draft on Day 1.

Samuel needs to get a long term deal done before the draft so with Gay coming off IR and Samuel in the fold for several more years, the Pats (and their fans) can take a CB off the radar. They can sign either Seau or another vet to shore up the LBs for this year. Rodney will be back and the Pats have Wilson also coming off IR, so the safety spot is OK for this season.

 

[Oswlek]

The question is, are any of these guys worth the two players picked at #24 and #28, historically? Let's find out:

{snip}

That's about it. There have been many more stiffs at the ends of rounds as there have been at the beginning. It's just the guys who go in the top 5 who bust are usually legendary, guys towards the end just fade out and go their ways as average backups or eventually just disappear from football. The only problem here comes from money. It's far more likely that you'll get a superstar in the first 5 picks, but a bust up there on the level of a Ryan Leaf or Tim Couch means you're paying ridiculous money and potentially crippling your franchise for years to come.

You do some excellent research, but the entire premise is flawed because it misuses the data. With as small a sample size as you are using, you cannot just equate #24 in the past with #24 now, you have to use ranges. For instance, in 2005 the draft went like this:

28 San Diego Luis Castillo DE Northwestern
29 Indianapolis Marlin Jackson CB Michigan
30 Pittsburgh Heath Miller TE Virginia
31 Philadelphia Mike Patterson DT Southern California
32 New England Logan Mankins G Fresno State

Obviously every single player that is on this list was available at 24. Do you really downgrade the list because Green Bay made a mistake, or do you assume that, with NE's stellar track record in the first round, that they would end up with two from the above?

The second error is hinted at above: The quality of the teams making the picks. This is a doozy and needs to be recognized. In the BB/SP they have made the following post-20 first round draft selections with the corresponding top 10 from each draft. I marked any player that was even debatable (read: I don't agree that all of the red are better, just that it is debatable) with red font.

2006
Laurence Maroney (21)

1 Houston Mario Williams DE North Carolina State
2 New Orleans Reggie Bush RB Southern California
3 Tennessee Vince Young QB Texas
4 N.Y. Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia
5 Green Bay A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State
6 San Francisco Vernon Davis TE Maryland
7 Oakland Michael Huff SS Texas
8 Buffalo Donte Whitner SS Ohio State
9 Detroit Ernie Sims OLB Florida State
10 Arizona Matt Leinart QB Southern California

2005
Logan Mankins (32)

1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams RB Auburn
6 Tennessee Adam Jones CB West Virginia
7 Minnesota Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
8 Arizona Antrel Rolle CB Miami
9 Washington Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
10 Detroit Mike Williams WR Southern California

2004
Vince Wilfork (21)
Ben Watson (32)

1 San Diego Eli Manning QB Mississippi
2 Oakland Robert Gallery T Iowa
3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh
4 N.Y. Giants Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
5 Washington Sean Taylor FS Miami
6 Cleveland Kellen Winslow TE Miami
7 Detroit Roy Williams WR Texas
8 Atlanta DeAngelo Hall CB Virginia Tech
9 Jacksonville Reggie Williams WR Washington
10 Houston Dunta Robinson CB South Carolina

2002
Dan Graham (21)

1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas
6 Kansas City Ryan Sims DT North Carolina
7 Minnesota Bryant McKinnie T Miami
8 Dallas Roy Williams SS Oklahoma
9 Jacksonville John Henderson DT Tennessee
10 Cincinnati Levi Jones T Arizona State

NE has made 5 selections. All but one are bonafide starters at their position, and NE apparently has faith that the 5th will rpove to be a starter next year. In that same drafts, there were 17 players drafted in the top ten that a case could be made that they have proven to be better guys than who NE ended up with. Said another way, the 5 players taken after the top 20 had already passed are clearly better than 23 of 40 guys who were taken in the top 10.

With that track record, why would anyone be in favor of moving up?


Edited to say that Pacman has proven to be a very good player, but I considered him out of the running for red considering that it is likely that he is unemployed soon.

 

[patfanken]

I was one of those guys who started this thread thinking that I'd love the Pats to move up and get Landry, IF he fell to the 8-12 range. AFter reading the initial post I thought, I must be mistaken. After reading the next, I switched back. I'm at the bottom of the thread and totally confused. Good think they aren't going to be coming to me for advise.

BOTTOM LINE - A great and interesting first post and a wonderful reply - good reading guys - THANK YOU

 

[ayjackson]

Said another way, the 5 players taken after the top 20 had already passed are clearly better than 23 of 40 guys who were taken in the top 10.

With that track record, why would anyone be in favor of moving up?

I guess you'd move up because BB/SP can not only identify the best post 20 talent, but can also identify the best top ten talent. Said another way, if BB/SP were drafting in the top ten in those four years, they would have selected four of the seventeen players who did pan out. I guess we shouldn't assume that BB/SP will always select good talent at the end of the first round, but would be subject to drafting busts in the top ten.

Just playing devil's advocate.

 

[jimmyjames]

I was one of those guys who started this thread thinking that I'd love the Pats to move up and get Landry, IF he fell to the 8-12 range. AFter reading the initial post I thought, I must be mistaken. After reading the next, I switched back. I'm at the bottom of the thread and totally confused. Good think they aren't going to be coming to me for advise.

BOTTOM LINE - A great and interesting first post and a wonderful reply - good reading guys - THANK YOU

I don't think there is a right or wrong approach. The variable is team need.
Given the Pats track record in evaluating talent and the current roster and cap situtaion I would not have a problem with them moving up to get LeRon Landry. If he is the best player available for the team then do it. The money is going to be the same if not cheaper. And while depth is somewhat of an issue, it is with every team. Not getting two guys in round 1 is not going to hamper the team long term.

 

[primetime]

Obviously every single player that is on this list was available at 24. Do you really downgrade the list because Green Bay made a mistake, or do you assume that, with NE's stellar track record in the first round, that they would end up with two from the above?

NE has made 5 selections. All but one are bonafide starters at their position, and NE apparently has faith that the 5th will rpove to be a starter next year. In that same drafts, there were 17 players drafted in the top ten that a case could be made that they have proven to be better guys than who NE ended up with. Said another way, the 5 players taken after the top 20 had already passed are clearly better than 23 of 40 guys who were taken in the top 10.

I pointed out some of the better players available at or after 24, up to and including a good chunk of the second round, as well. It's clear that the Patriots would not have selected Aaron Rodgers at 24, but, should, say, both Chris Spencer and Logan Mankins been available, would the Patriots have selected Spencer over Mankins? It's impossible to know. Perhaps 24 and 28 are too late in the round. Perhaps, say, 15 and 20 would be far better picks to have. These, I feel, would be better than a top 5 pick. However, picking at 24 and 28, I'm not certain if these would be.

You also forgot to put Winslow in red (better than Watson), and DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson are both stud cornerbacks. Still, I'd rather have Wilfork and Watson than, say, Winslow, but again Wilfork was selected with an earlier pick than we had in a very, very deep draft. I'm not so certain this draft class is very deep, which makes a top 5 pick more valuable than two late-1sts.

 

[Oswlek]

I pointed out some of the better players available at or after 24, up to and including a good chunk of the second round, as well. It's clear that the Patriots would not have selected Aaron Rodgers at 24, but, should, say, both Chris Spencer and Logan Mankins been available, would the Patriots have selected Spencer over Mankins? It's impossible to know. Perhaps 24 and 28 are too late in the round. Perhaps, say, 15 and 20 would be far better picks to have. These, I feel, would be better than a top 5 pick. However, picking at 24 and 28, I'm not certain if these would be.

You also forgot to put Winslow in red (better than Watson), and DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson are both stud cornerbacks. Still, I'd rather have Wilfork and Watson than, say, Winslow, but again Wilfork was selected with an earlier pick than we had in a very, very deep draft. I'm not so certain this draft class is very deep, which makes a top 5 pick more valuable than two late-1sts.

I will give you Winslow as being better than Watson, but he is not better than Wilfork. I don't know enough about Robinson to make the best judgement, but Hall is an average CB at best. He has tremendous measuables, but I would take Hobbs over him every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Even if I add all three of these, the point still stands. In all likelihood, NE's picks at 24 and 28 will both better than 1/2 of the big names picked in the top 10.

 

[Oswlek]

I guess you'd move up because BB/SP can not only identify the best post 20 talent, but can also identify the best top ten talent. Said another way, if BB/SP were drafting in the top ten in those four years, they would have selected four of the seventeen players who did pan out. I guess we shouldn't assume that BB/SP will always select good talent at the end of the first round, but would be subject to drafting busts in the top ten.

Just playing devil's advocate.

The issue is more complicated than that. When you add money into the mix things change dramatically. The investment in a #8 would probably be twice that of 24 and 28 combined. So, the player would have to be much, much better than anyone taken to be worth the money. For instance, I am more than willing to say that Bush is better than Maroney. But would you rather have Bush at 5+mm cap per year or Maroney at 2mm?

IMHO, once we exclude QBs (no need) only a handful of the guys a clearly worht big money:

Larry FItzgerald, Julius Peppers, John Henderson, Levi Jones and Roy Williams (Det.)

So, only 5 guys were really worth the investment of a top 10 pick (excluding QBs) while every single player taken by NE exceeded their contract value.

I am not against moving up a handful of spots, but I vehemently disagree with going any higher than the high teen area.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

First of all, you can not claim to be dispensing God's Message without the consent of 3tob4, who has God's e-mail address.

Secondly, I see no Hart Lee Dykes mention here. Not that he's anywhere near your sample range, I just feel incomplete reading draft history with no mention of Hart Lee Dykes.

Thirdly, good research, good post, and good realism! Now don't pop too many balloons, because the next "Game" we have is in April, and people just love to salivate over drafts!

(Even though they're always wrong.)

PFnV

 

[Patriotic]

First of all, you can not claim to be dispensing God's Message without the consent of 3tob4, who has God's e-mail address.

Secondly, I see no Hart Lee Dykes mention here. Not that he's anywhere near your sample range, I just feel incomplete reading draft history with no mention of Hart Lee Dykes.

Thirdly, good research, good post, and good realism! Now don't pop too many balloons, because the next "Game" we have is in April, and people just love to salivate over drafts!

(Even though they're always wrong.)

PFnV

Not to sound like a homophobe, but no way Dykes should be mentioned before the immortal Eugene Chung.