NFL Playoff Picture Still Murky Heading Into Week 15

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NFL Playoff Picture Still Murky Heading Into Week 15
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Although there wasn't a whole lot of movement in the standings after last week's games, there were still plenty of critical wins and losses. Cincinnati moved past Indianapolis into the number three position in the AFC with their victory over the Colts, an...

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[ctpatsfan77]

PlayoffStatus.com on change in playoff picture

PlayoffStatus.com | NFL | AFC

Before the game: Chances of #1/#2 seeds
Donkeys: 86%*/11%*
Patriots: 12%/49%*
Bengals: 1%/38%
Colts: <1%/1%
Chiefs: 1%/<1%
*Controls destiny for that spot

AFTER the game:
Donkeys: 49%/35%*
Patriots: 39%*/24%*
Bengals: 6%/37%
Colts: <1%/1%
Chiefs: 6%/3%

 

[Fencer]

Playoff seeding tiebreaks

The three teams currently tied for fewest losses (3) in the AFC are Denver, Kansas City, and your New England Patriots.

Based on my memory and on Field Yates (part blog, part Twitter):

• If the Patriots & Broncos win out, Patriots have the tiebreak because of head-to-head.
• If the Patriots & Chiefs win out, and the Broncos lose yet again, the Patriots have the tiebreak because of in-conference record.

And so, if the Patriots win out in the regular season, they have the #1 seed.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...id/4755195/pats-have-inside-track-to-top-seed

That said, Miami needs a win more than the Patriots do, so caution would be prudent.

 

[PATS16N0]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

I was expecting a tough game against Miami but I dunno', now my gut feeling is this #1 seed inspires and our guys come out and kick the Dolphins asses!

 

[TonyTucker]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

Thanks for that, Fencer, I was just wondering about what would happen if the Broncos got four losses and the Chiefs won out, whether or not the Patriots would still be the one seed. Now I know.

 

[goheels22002]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

The three teams currently tied for fewest losses (3) in the AFC are Denver, Kansas City, and your New England Patriots.

Based on my memory and on Field Yates (part blog, part Twitter):

• If the Patriots & Broncos win out, Patriots have the tiebreak because of head-to-head.
• If the Patriots & Chiefs win out, and the Broncos lose yet again, the Patriots have the tiebreak because of in-conference record.

And so, if the Patriots win out in the regular season, they have the #1 seed.

With Broncos' loss, Patriots now have inside track to top seed in AFC - ESPN Boston

That said, Miami needs a win more than the Patriots do, so caution would be prudent.

The "need" to win cuts both ways. You can be sure the Patriots are clear that reaching goal #1 -winning the division - is what they've been working since July to accomplish.

Also, the Dolphins haven't won a big game like this in years against a quality opponent. There's no telling how the coaching staff or players will respond. That's the difference between the Patriots and so many other teams - they know how to prepare and stay focused throughout the game, no matter the circumstances.

A win on Sunday by the Patriots locks in the AFCE, a home playoff game, and puts the pressure squarely on the Broncos and Chiefs to keep pace.

 

[Gwedd]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

As Coach Belichick so often says: "Just do your job." If everyone on the Patriots team just does their job, then the road to the Superbowl should be going through New England.

Now, I'm not normally one to gloat over another team nor player's misfortune. But, if the Denver Goobers lost another game or two, and choked in the playoffs, it would seem to me to be karma, especially considering the tongue-bathing the mediots have been giving them since the pre-season.

 

[Fencer]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

As Coach Belichick so often says: "Just do your job." If everyone on the Patriots team just does their job, then the road to the Superbowl should be going through New England.

Now, I'm not normally one to gloat over another team nor player's misfortune. But, if the Denver Goobers lost another game or two, and choked in the playoffs, it would seem to me to be karma, especially considering the tongue-bathing the mediots have been giving them since the pre-season.

I'm not aware of egregiously bad behavior by the head-in-the-clouds team, so I don't know where karma comes in in a big way. Yeah, Manning whines a bit too much when he loses, but he comes nowhere near guys like LaDanian Tomlinson. And while I like the idea of Tom winning in January and February while Wes watches from his sofa, fondling Miss Hooters' ta-tas as he cries, I don't think he acted badly in leaving (he just made a bad choice of agent to trust), so again it's not really karma.

 

[Fencer]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

But I'll say this -- I think Denver's going to have a bit of a tumble in the Power Rankings, for those who care ...

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

Belichick is at his best when the world doubts his team and they are facing adversity. I have a feeling the loss of Gronk could be the spark that gets this team focused and avoid the slow starts.

If the Pats play a full 60 minutes against the Dolphins and Ravens rather than sleepwalking through the first half like they have the last three games, I think they win confidentially in Miami and Baltimore. The Bills seem to have packed it in yet again.

 

[brdmaverick]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

Also, the Dolphins haven't won a big game like this in years against a quality opponent. There's no telling how the coaching staff or players will respond. That's the difference between the Patriots and so many other teams - they know how to prepare and stay focused throughout the game, no matter the circumstances.

I'd be willing to argue that this Phins game last week was one of these games and they did win. After all, that was essentially a playoff game for them last week.

Not only did they win, but the team from MIAMI of all places went to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers in the snow. In my opinion that was a character win that could inspire confidence in the Phish. The Pats will have a dogfight on their hands come Sunday.

 

[brdmaverick]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

I know that the Broncos losing has all of us (myself included) giddy at the thought of winning out and getting the #1 seed.

The thing that we can't forget however, is that IF we do stumble it's not just costing us a #1 seed, but could in fact cause us to lose our bye (if Cincy wins out, we lose H2H tie breaker to them).

 

[1960Pats]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

The "need" to win cuts both ways. You can be sure the Patriots are clear that reaching goal #1 -winning the division - is what they've been working since July to accomplish.

Also, the Dolphins haven't won a big game like this in years against a quality opponent. There's no telling how the coaching staff or players will respond. That's the difference between the Patriots and so many other teams - they know how to prepare and stay focused throughout the game, no matter the circumstances.

A win on Sunday by the Patriots locks in the AFCE, a home playoff game, and puts the pressure squarely on the Broncos and Chiefs to keep pace.

The key games this week are now;
Baltimore at Detroit - Huge for both teams and I hope they pound on each other.
Cincy at Pitt - Cincy could put the final nail in the coffin.
NE at Miami - The Pats don't play well down there.

Next week;
NE at Baltimore - Will likely determine the top seed in the AFC.
Indy at KC - Key to keeping alive the Chiefs hopes for a 1 or 2 seed instead of the #5.

Final week;
KC at SD - Could be meaningless to KC though. That's one of the problems when key conference games come at the very end of the season.
Baltimore at Cincy - Also could be meaningless but only if Baltimore loses the next two weeks.

Hard to believe that the Pats have the top AFC seed in their control. Amazing considering the circumstances this year.

 

[1960Pats]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

I know that the Broncos losing has all of us (myself included) giddy at the thought of winning out and getting the #1 seed.

The thing that we can't forget however, is that IF we do stumble it's not just costing us a #1 seed, but could in fact cause us to lose our bye (if Cincy wins out, we lose H2H tie breaker to them).

I remember the old days when the Pats would get a late-season win or loss and then would be forced to hope that some team or teams would lose to give us a spot in the playoffs, only to have them all win. It used to be tough to go through. Now look at us, fighting for the top spot almost every season. We've come a long way baby.

 

[everlong]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

Well historically two of the teams that have faired better against the Patriots in the BB\TB era than most and they're road games to boot.

The Patriots have done a great job of figuring out how teams are attacking them and adjusting and coming back to win. But they simply can't afford to go down big like they did against Denver, Houston and Cleveland on the road. Yes Houston was a road game but the Pats have owned them even when they were good. If they go down 17-0 to Miami at the half they aren't coming back. They need to figure it out much fast.

One game at a time. I'm just going to kick back and enjoy the ride and not worry about the destination.

 

[Nehalem]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

As Coach Belichick so often says: "Just do your job." If everyone on the Patriots team just does their job, then the road to the Superbowl should be going through New England.

Now, I'm not normally one to gloat over another team nor player's misfortune. But, if the Denver Goobers lost another game or two, and choked in the playoffs, it would seem to me to be karma, especially considering the tongue-bathing the mediots have been giving them since the pre-season.

It would be good for a laugh of Manning gets the TD record, but doesn't even win his division :rocker:

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

Sweet....just realized the dolphins own the tie breaker over the chargers since they beat them earlier this year. Last thing I want is for rivers to get hot and go on a playoff run. They've already beaten the chiefs and broncos...two of the afc's top teams. They are capable of an upset or two.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

So the Ravens own the tiebreaker over the Dolphins, and both teams own tiebreakers over the Chargers, while the JEST are dead last in tiebreakers if somehow pigs fly and they end the season 9-7.

Ravens Schedule:

@ Lions
Patriots
@ Bengals

I see them going 1-2 down this stretch. I have the Dolphins beating the Bills and JEST to get the 6th seed at 9-7.

#6 seed Dolphins @ #3 Bengals

The Dolphins already beat the Bengals this year, and Dalton has been terrible in the playoffs.

Divisional Round:

#6 seed Dolphins @ #1 Patriots

That would sure be a weird playoff game. When the hell was the last time we met them in the playoffs? 1985 squish the fish?

 

[goheels22002]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

I know that the Broncos losing has all of us (myself included) giddy at the thought of winning out and getting the #1 seed.

The thing that we can't forget however, is that IF we do stumble it's not just costing us a #1 seed, but could in fact cause us to lose our bye (if Cincy wins out, we lose H2H tie breaker to them).

I love this web site - AFC Playoff Picture

The Bengals have the biggest swing possible - they could get the number one seed if they win out or they could miss the playoffs altogether if they lose out. They have a 90% probability of winning their division, which they do if they beat the Steelers on Sunday.

The Bengals also play the Vikings and Ravens. The Vikings have nothing to play for right now. The Ravens might still be alive, but if so, that means they will have beaten the Patriots and are hanging in for the last wild card spot. The Bengals should win out, but that team, like the Dolphins, hasn't stepped up when it mattered in ages.

The Bengals are precisely the sort of team that lines up against the Steelers with their hands around their throats and choke away a golden opportunity to change the culture of their franchise. The main problem the Bengals have is that they do not have a consistent cold-blooded quarterback that has ever proven he could will the team to a victory.

Brady, Manning, Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger and even Joe Flacco (when he takes his head out his ass) can just take over and win games. These new playoff team guys - Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, etc. have a big mountain to climb this year to prove they are worthy.

 

[jmt57]

Re: Playoff seeding tiebreaks

When it comes to tiebreakers, the first thing the NFL does is eliminate teams that are in the same division. So if for example the Pats, KC and Denver all had the same record, first they would look only at Denver and KC and eliminate one (in this case KC). Then the next step would be between the Pats and Denver, in which case the Broncos get eliminated. Then for the next spot everybody goes back into the mix, and the process is repeated.

NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures | NFL.com

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Three or More Clubs


(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.



OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES

1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
4. To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
5. To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."