Welker "could" get traded to us instead?

[DefenseRules]

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/

March 05, 2007
Welker update
Receiver Wes Welker is visiting with the Patriots today at Gillette Stadium. In addition, a source close to the situation indicated that there have been conversations between the Patriots and Dolphins, opening the possibility that Welker could be traded.

Because Welker is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots are visiting with him today, it was assumed in some circles that the team would sign him to an offer sheet.

At this point, it seems the Patriots are exploring all their options.

While the Patriots could still sign Welker to an offer sheet, don't rule out the possibility of a trade.

Very interesting. Like Mike said, it will not surprise me if he's traded to us.
I wonder what the Dolphins are up to here? If we sign him to the offer sheet and they don't match, they will get our second round pick. Do they want more?

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

which course of action would be most advantageous for us?

 

[PATSNUTme]

They need O-line and some D-line help.

Watch O'Callahan, Kazur or Mike Wright if there is a true trade.

 

[Fumblerooski]

Uh, maybe Chad Jackson? They tried to trade him for Moss before it came out he had a ACL injury.

But, I could think of Hill, Childress, Mruckowski as players in lieu of the #2. Maybe a #4 and one of them?

 

[kas]

IMO, talking trade can only help us. If they were talking about more than a second, the Pats could just use a poison pill and sign the deal. Therefore, I expect negotiation to be for something a little less, maybe our 3rd our something like that.

That might be the reason for the leaks about contacting Stallworth and interest in Moss. The Pats want backup plans (or at least make it seem like they do) so that they can get a deal done without having to give up the second.

 

[Rob0729]

I think this could be bad for us from a draft pick standpoint, but better for us by a salary cap standpoint. Why would the Dolphins trade Welker for less than a second? It wouldn't make sense. They could not match the offer and get a second for him and make the Pats overpay for him.

My only guess would be if there was a trade, the Pats would have to package a second day pick in with the deal and they get the right to offer Welker a contract that is market value without worrying about the Dolphins matching.

Personally, if we can save a decent amount of cap space, I would be willing to give a conditional sixth or seventh for the 2008 season which could be increased based on performance. I feel a second is a bit too high for Welker, but if we are going to do the deal I would rather have Welker with a cap friendly deal and lose a late second day pick for it than keep the pick and have Welker have an inflated, front-loaded contract.

 

[Kdo5]

Keep Welker IMO.

 

[holyredeemer]

Uh, maybe Chad Jackson? They tried to trade him for Moss before it came out he had a ACL injury.

And where did you pull this one from? I never heard that.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

I dont get it, the Dolphins either could match it or not.. if they match it, they are on the hook for the contract...if they dont they get a second round pick... If we have to give more for this guy, its not worth it...

 

[Rob0729]

IMO, talking trade can only help us. If they were talking about more than a second, the Pats could just use a poison pill and sign the deal. Therefore, I expect negotiation to be for something a little less, maybe our 3rd our something like that.

That might be the reason for the leaks about contacting Stallworth and interest in Moss. The Pats want backup plans (or at least make it seem like they do) so that they can get a deal done without having to give up the second.

The compensation right now is a second rounder. If they trade, it will most likely be more than a second rounder. The Pats will probably have to add a second day pick (hopefully a conditional 2008) to that second round pick in a trade.

If they work out a trade for less than a second round pick, then the Dolphins lose for no reason. If the Pats offer Welker a deal, the Dolphins can do nothing and get a second rounder for him. Why would they make a trade for less that only helps out the Pats and gives them a lesser draft pick.

The only reason we are talking trade is to avoid cap issues with a deal to make it unattractive for the Dolphins to match. That means we have to give up more to get a deal done, not less.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

which course of action would be most advantageous for us?

It would have to be more advantageous to us since Miami in tendering him and at that level really has no choice but to agree to a poison pill deal on an offer sheet or take that 2nd round pick. Maybe Pioli read Aqua's contention that there was no place for him on the Miami roster anyway since the have another player signed who plays the position as well, so we now feel we have leverage. Maybe we send them a player we tendered or maybe we send them our second but swap thirds. The possibilities are endless but they all would have to favor us.

 

[BelichickFan]

And where did you pull this one from? I never heard that.

Rumor from PatriotsPlanet that he's passing on as fact.

 

[Rob0729]

I dont get it, the Dolphins either could match it or not.. if they match it, they are on the hook for the contract...if they dont they get a second round pick... If we have to give more for this guy, its not worth it...

If we have to give Welker $12 million guaranteed to make it so the Dolphins don't match, there is big incentives for us to make a trade where we give up an extra pick to get Welker. Then we can offer him something like $6 million guaranteed.

The only way there would be a trade is because the Pats are looking to not give Welker an overinflated contract. Why would the Dolphins want to trade him for less than a second rounder? They can do absolutely nothing and get a second rounder for him. Why take a third?

 

[Sorna]

The Dolphins likely want one of the Patriots 1st round picks. IMO a trade would probably be something like this:

Dolphins Get: 1st round pick
Patriots Get: Wes Welker and a 4th round pick

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

I think the only reason why the Pats would entertain a trade is so that they don't have to include a poison pill element to the contract and have that issue follow them around with the league. That is if the rumoured contract totals are accurate.

 

[patsgo]

I think this could be bad for us from a draft pick standpoint, but better for us by a salary cap standpoint. Why would the Dolphins trade Welker for less than a second? It wouldn't make sense. They could not match the offer and get a second for him and make the Pats overpay for him.

My only guess would be if there was a trade, the Pats would have to package a second day pick in with the deal and they get the right to offer Welker a contract that is market value without worrying about the Dolphins matching.

Personally, if we can save a decent amount of cap space, I would be willing to give a conditional sixth or seventh for the 2008 season which could be increased based on performance. I feel a second is a bit too high for Welker, but if we are going to do the deal I would rather have Welker with a cap friendly deal and lose a late second day pick for it than keep the pick and have Welker have an inflated, front-loaded contract.

IF THEY ALREADY TALKED NUMBERS WITH WELKER THAN THET CANT SHORT CHANGE HIM BECAUSE HE HAS THE RIGHT NOT TO SIGN, SO THEY WOULD GIVE UP PICKS FR A 1 YEAR, MAKES NO SENSE BECAUSE

 

[Rob0729]

It would have to be more advantageous to us since Miami in tendering him and at that level really has no choice but to agree to a poison pill deal on an offer sheet or take that 2nd round pick. Maybe Pioli read Aqua's contention that there was no place for him on the Miami roster anyway since the have another player signed who plays the position as well, so we now feel we have leverage. Maybe we send them a player we tendered or maybe we send them our second but swap thirds. The possibilities are endless but they all would have to favor us.

We don't have any leverage for the Dolphins to take less than a second. If the Dolphins are resigned to the fact they can't keep Welker, they can do nothing and take a second rounder or they can negotiate a trade and take less? Why in the world would the Dolphins take less than a second rounder for Welker?

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

The Dolphins likely want one of the Patriots 1st round picks. IMO a trade would probably be something like this:

Dolphins Get: 1st round pick
Patriots Get: Wes Welker and a 4th round pick

I would not want this at all.. I wont give that pick for Randy Moss, let alone Wes Welker...

 

[40yrpatsfan]

They need O-line and some D-line help.

Watch O'Callahan, Kazur or Mike Wright if there is a true trade.

If there's truth to all this, then it's likely something like the above. Instead of a low 2nd, we give them a player and a 4th or 5th.

 

[BelichickFan]

The compensation right now is a second rounder. If they trade, it will most likely be more than a second rounder. The Pats will probably have to add a second day pick (hopefully a conditional 2008) to that second round pick in a trade.

I think you have it backwards.

We could offer a big contract which they wouldn't match and give up a #2. Done.

What's likely going on is the Patriots don't want to trade a #2. And probably no-one else does either. If someone else did the Dolphins would have no reason to trade him for less. More likely, if no-one wants to give up a #2 for him, including us, the Patriots want to negotiate a lower draft choice package that both teams are satisfied with.