Working breakdown of final roster of 53 by position

[Fencer]

CB (5) -- Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, and Scott aren't enough, because of durability concerns and the like, even given Hawkins' and Wilson's ability to pinch-hit at CB.

S (5) -- Harrison, Wilson, Hawkins, and Sanders aren't enough, given various concerns about declining play. A development safety seems needed. That's even without specialty ST safeties such as Mel Mitchell.

OLB (4) -- Colvin, Vrabel, Thomas, and a developmental player (Woods) is a heckuva crew

ILB (5 or 6) -- Four of Bruschi, Seau, Alexander, Mays, Izzo, Gardner, Davis isn't enough. Maybe if a front-line player were added to the mix -- but it's also likely there will continue to be some ST specialists listed at ILB

DE (4) -- Seymour, Warren, Green, and Wright is a great rotation

NT (2 or 3) -- All the DEs can play inside in emergencies, so Wilfork might be able to get by with one pure backup. Still, my guess is they'll try to go with two

Total defense: 25-27. And that's without making clearcut room for Andrews and Spann.

K/P/LS: 3

QB (2 or 3): If they were comfortable starting with 2 QBs last season, after another year of Cassell's development, they may be comfortable again.

OL (9): Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Hochstein, Britt, O'Callaghan, Yates -- that's 9 already.

TE (3 or 4): Watson, Thomas, Mills, new guy

RB/FB (4): Maroney, Evans, Faulk is clearly not enough; a better pounder than Evans is needed. But I think there's room only for four total, if we don't count Mills among them.

WR (5 or 6): With Jackson likely to start PUPed, there probably won't be a compelling reason to go over 5. But with so many question marks, going with 6 can't be ruled out.

Total defense: 23-26. But it's not going as high as 26.


Will this be the year they cut back on either old ST specialists or young ones? It seems like we ask that every year, and they never do. But once again, if they don't, then surely there will be a risky roster crunch at some other position.

 

[mac]

Thanks for a well-thought-out post.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't know if you can put Thomas at OLB. I think he will be everywhere from safety to DE to OLB to ILB to possibly TE. I don't know what his position will actually be. Vrabel, Thomas, and Colvin are our best LBs so I doubt there will be many plays where any of them are out (except nickel and dime situations).

 

[pats1]

Unless the Pats sign someone significant at ILB (they'll either do that or draft a few guys, or both), I see Thomas starting at SILB.

Last year (and in years past), the Pats used Colvin, Vrabel, and Banta-Cain as rush DEs, with Vrabel or Bruschi inside too.

This year, I see Thomas and Colvin as the rush DEs (...wipes up drool...) and Vrabel or Bruschi or someone else (Edwards?) inside.

 

[Fencer]

Updating this a bit. Substantive changes bolded.

CB (5) -- Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, and Scott aren't enough, because of durability concerns and the like, even given Hawkins' and Wilson's ability to pinch-hit at CB. That's even if Samuel is signed long-term, which would make development less of a need.

S (5) -- Harrison, Wilson, Hawkins, and Sanders aren't enough, given various concerns about declining play. A developmental safety seems needed.

OLB (4 or 5) -- Colvin, Vrabel, Thomas, and a developmental player (Woods) is a heckuva crew. But if Vrabel and/or Thomas take a lot of reps at other positions -- and also play a lot of STs -- a 5th guy may be needed.

ILB (5 or 6) -- Four of Bruschi, Seau, Alexander, Mays, Izzo, Gardner, Davis isn't enough, even with Vrabel and/or Thomas taking some inside reps. Maybe if a front-line player were added to the mix -- but it's also likely there will continue to be some ST specialists listed at ILB. But there's no room for more than 10 LBs total.

DE (4) -- Seymour, Warren, Green, and Wright is a great rotation.

NT (2 or 3) -- All the DEs can play inside in emergencies, so Wilfork might be able to get by with one pure backup. While I'm sure they'd like to try to go with two, as always there's an overall roster crunch.

Total defense: 26. Keeping it even that low will be hard, because they'd really like to have 10 DBs, 10 LBs, and 7 DL.

K/P/LS: 3

QB (2): If they were comfortable starting with 2 QBs last season, after another year of Cassell's development, they may be comfortable again. And I just don't see room for a third guy to start the season, barring bad injuries elsewhere.

OL (9): Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Hochstein, Britt, O'Callaghan, Yates -- that's 9 already.

TE (4): Watson, Thomas, Mills, Brady.

RB/FB (4): Maroney, Evans, Faulk, Morris.

WR (5): With roster slots so tight -- and receiving TEs so plentiful -- I think they'll hold it to 5, with Jackson on PUP.

Total offense: 24.


Will this be the year they cut back on either old ST specialists or young ones? It seems like we ask that every year, and they never do. But once again, if they don't, then surely there will be a risky roster crunch at some other position.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Unless the Pats sign someone significant at ILB (they'll either do that or draft a few guys, or both), I see Thomas starting at SILB.

Last year (and in years past), the Pats used Colvin, Vrabel, and Banta-Cain as rush DEs, with Vrabel or Bruschi inside too.

This year, I see Thomas and Colvin as the rush DEs (...wipes up drool...) and Vrabel or Bruschi or someone else (Edwards?) inside.

On the defensive side:
Call me crazy but I think Seau would be the absolute cherry on top for this LB group (if he'll come back with the Patriots for one more year) and this defense. With the proven ability of Seau to fill a solid inside LB role in the Patriot system, the Patriots would have awesomely flexibility at the LB spot. We already have a solid DL. I am happy to see Gay likely remaining (just needs to stay healthy). He is not only a great back up but adds good competition for Hobbs and the rest of the group. I think there is real potential for this defense to be the best the Patriots have ever fielded.

Offensively:
I thought this would not be the case a few weeks ago but the question marks are more so on the O side. Is Maroney the guy? Morris is a great addition behind him IMHO. Welker is also another good addition. We still don't have that one guy who is the deep threat. Will Jackson be healthy and be that deep threat? TE is set. The OL is set.

ST's:
Sauerbraun (sp?) I hope remains. I like what I saw from the guy.

 

[Fencer]

As I said in another thread, I'd be delighted if the LB roster shaped up to be:

Thomas
Vrabel
Colvin
Bruschi
Edwards (FA)
Seau (FA)

1 of Izzo, Davis, Gardner
2 of Woods, Alexander, Mays
1 new young player

 

[Fencer]

As pointed out in another thread, if there's any chance that the Fins will match a >$3 million/year offer for Welker, they are total morons not to have tendered him at a higher level. Ergo, there's very little chance they'll match.

So the WR roster starts

Welker, Caldwell, Gaffney, Jackson (probably PUP).

There's no reason to take that up to more than 5 guys total. They might even try to squeeze by with 4, if a fifth is PUPed.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Yah. I had Edwards as the wheeler/dealer special this offseason. Don't know whether it is still doable after the dust settles from this weekend's signings, however.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

The obvious followup is what positions are available on the roster? It appears to be;

CB (1)
S (1)
ILB (1)
NT (1) maybe
TE (1)
WR (2)
OL (1) if the inevitable injury happens......

While they likely will be addressed in the draft, I believe that even if Welker becomes a Pat, there will be another FA WR pickup either now or later on. Is there enough money left to sign Stallworth, if his demands come down????

Just my $0.02,

 

[WhiZa]

Guys, is Gardner even on the Patriots? Miguel's page shows him as being signed to a 1 year deal and he is not on the 2007 page.

 

[Fumblerooski]

The 53 is shaping up as early as I can remember in many a year.

The way I have it these are the only spots left open:

ILB - Need a young gun to eventually take Tedy's inside spot
CB - upgrade over Mickens and long term replacement if Samuel doesn't sign.
NT - the Pats need more depth. Kevin Smith wasn't the answer so far
DE - Please draft someone (3-4 DE) and put Hill out of our misery. How long can you baby a #2 pick?
OLB - ST guy who can also play the field position (replace TBC)
WR - depends if they sign Moss. If not, there is one more roster spot up for grabs.

With Mitchell a ST demon coming back, the usual role of using a LB on STs (Davis or Izzo or Gardner) becomes less and less the choice. So, I see the Pats going with only 9 LBs this year and 10 DBs.

This off season would be topped off perfectly if they move up to take Willis at ILB. That is really the biggest hole they have left to fill and I wouldn't mind if they give up a lot of the other draft picks they have to move up to get him.

The other holes on this 53 are role players who should be fairly easy to fill with lower picks.

 

[Fencer]

Our top 5 DBs (4 starters and nickel) are:

Samuel -- not signed to a long-term deal yet
Hobbs -- solid
Gay -- not signed yet, and not good at staying on the field even if he does sign
Harrison -- injury-prone as he ages
Wilson -- fairly likely to be gone after this year

Behind them are:

Hawkins -- failed or JAG starter who is an outstanding backup
Scott -- ditto
Sanders -- developing well, but not necessarily into a difference-maker
Baker -- ???
Mitchell -- ST/depth guy at best
Andrews -- strong ST guy who didn't show much else the first year. Of course, the same was true of Givens.
Spann -- see Andrews

There are enough warm bodies there that they don't HAVE to strengthen the DB roster. But my guess and desire is that they'll draft one or two DBs high, hoping to get another difference-maker into the mix.

 

[pats1]

Guys, is Gardner even on the Patriots? Miguel's page shows him as being signed to a 1 year deal and he is not on the 2007 page.

He's an unrestricted free agent.

The last I heard, from this past week, was that he's still rehabbing from his broken leg.

 

[pats1]

NT - the Pats need more depth. Kevin Smith wasn't the answer so far

How did you come to that conclusion?!?!

WR - depends if they sign Moss. If not, there is one more roster spot up for grabs.

How could the Pats sign Moss? When did the Raiders cut him?