My opinion: Welker is now closer to mediocrity than stardom

[scout]

If Welker continues to play like the first two games, he might lead the league in drops. That doesn't even take into account his fumble on that punt inside the 10. He might have good stats for TD catches, yards, etc., but he is dropping a lot of passes. And yes, that was without a case of alligator arms in the last game, just sayin.

 

[BradyFTW!]

In regards to actual impact on defensive scheming, he's Stokley-esque at this point.

He could have a decent-to-good season this year, primarily because all of the attention is going to be focused on the Thomases and Decker. In terms of defensive gameplanning, Welker is an afterthought.

Welker gets open way, way faster than Stokley ever could. If defenses treat him as an afterthought, then they'll end up giving up 4-5 more first downs per game than they would otherwise.

 

[Deus Irae]

On a team with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, et al, Wes Welker has been drawing double coverage, bracket coverage and the opponent's best cover defender, in an effort to stop him. While that SHOULD tell people here all they need to know, it'll be ignored or belittled, just like the 3 TDs and all the first downs, because he had an off game for a new team in terms of a couple of drops.

The "per target" sleight of hand was a nice touch, though.

BTW, in 2007, WWW had three catches or fewer in 3 games. He had one in '08, one in '09, three in '10, one in '11 and two in '12. In other words, this has happened before, and it happens every season, despite his consistently catching 100+ passes a season since moving on from Miami.

It's pathetic that this fan base is so petty about former players.

 

[supafly]

Welker gets open way, way faster than Stokley ever could. If defenses treat him as an afterthought, then they'll end up giving up 4-5 more first downs per game than they would otherwise.

I'd have to agree with this analysis. DEN improved their slot/quick timing routes with the addition of Welker, and he certainly demands attention from both coaches and players during the week.

In the bigger picture, I can totally agree with the OP's premise that Welker may be deteriorating and that he may not be able to produce as much in the long term, but he is still extremely durable and was definitely worth keeping around for 2 more years.

I'm happy that we got our #2 choice (or possibly Belichick's #1 choice), but Welker would still be a great player here throughout the 2013 and 2014 seasons.

It is what it is, and it's time to move on.

 

[letekro]

Edelman wasn't doubled and Edelman was not close to as effective as Welker was. He caught ineffective passes, because that was what he had to catch. Welker caught effective passes.

What is your agenda with respect to Welker? I ask because the above is just illiterate nonsense. Edelman's 9 yard catch on third and 5 with 3 minutes left against the Jets was not "effective"? His two TD's against the Bills were not "effective"? Do you read what you write?

Just watch the games. Wes is the 4th option on his team. He's still a nice player, I'd like to have him, but not at $5m/year. As compared with Edelman, Edelman gives you the same short area quickness but the higher likelihood of the big play. Wes probably runs a 4.8 40 right about now. He is great at catching 5 yard passes directly into his body against Nickel CBs and linebackers and maybe getting 3 or 4 yards after the catch. Not much else at this point.

 

[Deus Irae]

...Just watch the games. Wes is the 4th option on his team...

......... No.

 

[Ozymandias]

Welker gets open way, way faster than Stokley ever could. If defenses treat him as an afterthought, then they'll end up giving up 4-5 more first downs per game than they would otherwise.

In terms of how teams will diversify their coverage assignments, Welker is the least likely of their pass catchers to receive any extra attention in terms of bracket coverage. From a gameplanning perspective, it's not that much different than Stokley last year.

His impact will be minimized because he's not a big-play offensive threat, and no team will treat him as such. The way teams will defend the Broncos will make Welker seem like very much of an afterthought in terms of scheming. Stopping D. Thomas, J. Thomas, Decker are bigger priorities.

If it's between stopping Welker or those other guys, which do you think an NFL defensive coordinator is more concerned with? Most likely, teams will go with the lesser of two evils.

 

[Gronkandez]

He is a bit slower now. And Manning is going to get him killed (Welker dropped one pass because he alligator armed because if he caught it, he would have gotten creamed because Manning threw a pass that the only way he could catch it was to take a major hit unprotected).

.

Exactly what I was going to say. He was about to get Jacked up. Also, his arm are actually the size of an alligators arms so, not sure you can criticize him for that.
Additionally, even if he isn't what he was, for what he's making he is still a bargain. I actually think they made the right move on paper, but its a gamble with da's health. I was critical of WW last year but kept it to myself bc if you criticize a current player on this board you get killed for it. On the other hand once a guy leaves everyone piles on.

 

[ausbacker]

On a team with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, et al, Wes Welker has been drawing double coverage, bracket coverage and the opponent's best cover defender, in an effort to stop him. While that SHOULD tell people here all they need to know, it'll be ignored or belittled, just like the 3 TDs and all the first downs, because he had an off game for a new team in terms of a couple of drops.

The "per target" sleight of hand was a nice touch, though.

BTW, in 2007, WWW had three catches or fewer in 3 games. He had one in '08, one in '09, three in '10, one in '11 and two in '12. In other words, this has happened before, and it happens every season, despite his consistently catching 100+ passes a season since moving on from Miami.

It's pathetic that this fan base is so petty about former players.

Whilst I agree that some factions of the fan base are petty when it comes to former players you're allowing your disposition toward Welker to cloud your judgement. From my observations, Welker was rarely double teamed against Baltimore where Denver had 2 100 yard receivers both scoring multiple touchdowns. It was so very obvious that Julius Thomas commanded double coverage after half time against the Ravens. Further to that, you're putting forward that Welker was being double teamed against the Giants where that is a marginal comment at best. The coverage was being rolled toward Demaryius Thomas because Thomas is a home run threat every single offensive snap.

Now, all that said Welker looks to have lost a step but that doesn't matter because he's still a damn fine player and chain mover. The Broncos look good but we already expected that. At this point in the season, the Patriots are 2-0 and the Broncos are 2-0.

 

[Deus Irae]

Whilst I agree that some factions of the fan base are petty when it comes to former players you're allowing your disposition toward Welker cloud your judgement.

No, I'm not. I've defended other former players, as well. We've seen this same crap happen regarding Asante, for example, and I've defended him, even though I was one getting bashed for not calling him a top 5 (top 10?) CB when he was on the Patriots.

From my observations, Welker was rarely double teamed against Baltimore where Denver had 2 100 yard receivers both scoring multiple touchdowns. Further to that, you're putting forward that Welker was being double teamed against the Giants where that is a marginal comment at best.

From my observations, as well as the observations of both radio and tv broadcast crews, what I stated I've seen is what I've seen.

 

[ausbacker]

No, I'm not. I've defended other former players, as well. We've seen this same crap happen regarding Asante, for example, and I've defended him, even though I was one getting bashed for not calling him a top 5 (top 10?) CB when he was on the Patriots.



From my observations, as well as the observations of both radio and tv broadcast crews, what I stated I've seen is what I've seen.

You prove yourself to be as wrong as often as you are right. I watched both games. I'll stick with what I read and saw ahead of your position.

 

[Observer]

So let's see here... on the one hand we have Team B that adds receiver W to their team who produces 3 TDs over 2 games. On the other hand we have Team P that adds receivers A, D, T, B to their team who combine to produce 3 TDs over 2 games. Yet somehow it is W that is closer to mediocre and thus it was a smart decision to send him from Team P to Team B. Right....:bricks:

 

[ATippett56]

Have at it, then... I'll take my beating....

In my opinion, Steve Gregory has always been closer to garbage than mediocrity.

Two can play the same game.

 

[Deus Irae]

You prove yourself to be as wrong as often as you are right. I watched both games. I'll stick with what I read and saw ahead of your position.

I see you're looking to troll tonight. Sorry, but I'll not be obliging. The 43,254th thread bashing Welker since he left is now all yours.

 

[Joker]

Hey...Welker just farted.....quick...somebody start a thread...

 

[ausbacker]

I see you're looking to troll tonight. Sorry, but I'll not be obliging. The 43,254th thread bashing Welker since he left is now all yours.

Typical. You throw out comments as absolutes with little to no factual basis then run and hide when presented with an alternative opinion, one which I believe to be closer to the truth. Perhaps it is you Deus, who is trolling the rest.

FTR, I have always been a supporter of Wes Welker. He's a fine footballer and doesn't deserve much of the crap sent his way since he moved on.

 

[Brady6]

I'm sure I will be accused of sour grapes from plenty of people on here, and let me start by saying that Wes Welker is one of my all-time favorite Patriots, and in addition to that, I'm usually the person who accuses others of being homers, including the preseason gloom-and-doom posts about the Broncos. The Broncos sure have an awesome offense this year, but more of it has to do with the emergence of Julius Thomas and the continued playbook mastery of Peyton Manning.

I have watched both games this season, and I can tell you that Welker is not the same player he was in New England. He is significantly slower, seems to have shriveled up in his pass radius, and I even noted a few alligator arms plays to avoid hits. I am aware that he had an ankle injury and it still may be nagging, but in New England he was never this slow, despite multiple nagging injuries nor even after his ACL tear (the recovery lasted through the the 2010 season.)

All in all, my eyes tell me that Welker lacks the burst he once had, and by the typical curve of wide receivers, he'll be a Stokley-esque nobody in two years, and maybe much sooner (by the end of this season.) With all of the criticism heaped on the Patriots for not re-signing him, there was little talk that there was virtually no market for a receiver with tons of mileage, a small body, approaching the breakdown age for all WRs. And they go fast.

You may point to his three touchdown grabs, ignoring that on all of them, it was more the power of Manning conning the defense with all of his big red zone targets, with Welker slipping out uncovered.

The stats:

Welker is averaging 5.6 yards per target. I use this stat quite often in evaluating players, as it typically doesn't lie. A star player, such as Calvin Johnson or Gronk or Moss in 07 typically average 10-11. Great players average 9-10. Brandon Lloyd averaged about 7 last season. 5.6- this isn't just below average- it's below starting WR quality, and in that offense? His longest play of the season has been for 20 yards.

You might say that this is a small sample size, and you are correct, but I'm certain about what my eyes have told me watching those first two games. At 32, and 780 catches, Wes Welker is on a rapid decline. Yes, he will still have some good games here and there and make the Broncos a bit better (and I sure wouldn't mind having him here), but he is closer to mediocrity than he is to stardom at this point in his career.

That being said, he still may get his ring with Manning, and the signing sure would have been worth it for both parties. My point is limited solely to his quickly eroding football skills at this point in his career.

Have at it, then... I'll take my beating....

I don’t really see what you are basing your belief for this on his stats in 2 games are very good, better than any receiver on this team, take a look at them projected out over a 16 game season:

Receptions – 12 | 96
Targets – 19 | 152
Receiving yards – 106 | 848
Touchdowns – 3 | 24
First downs – 9 | 72

If you want to talk about something really impressive 9 of his 12 receptions have gone for a first down, and 3 of his 12 receptions have gone for a touchdown, which means that every single reception he has made this season has been meaning resulted in a new set of downs or a score, there is nothing mediocre about that.

I get it man the guy is gone and we want to bash him to feel bad about the ****ty predicament we’re currently in with are receiving corp. but I just don’t see why you would write up a post about a player on pace to catch 24 touchdowns like this.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Welker looked great to me. Quick and beating his man off the line. It's not his fault that he now has an inferior QB tossing passes to him. Well maybe it is because of the contract issues, but still...

 

[Ozymandias]

Welker looked great to me. Quick and beating his man off the line. It's not his fault that he now has an inferior QB tossing passes to him. Well maybe it is because of the contract issues, but still...

I don't think anyone's really saying he isn't good, because he has been so far with the Broncos. That's to be expected.

I think the OP's point about Welker declining is a valid one. Evidence suggests he's definitely in the decline stage of his career. He's not as quick or as fast as he used to be. His hands have definitely let him down as of late. These things aren't disputable.

Nonetheless, he could still be just as effective as he used to be with his experience and veteran savvy.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I don't think anyone's really saying he isn't good, because he has been so far with the Broncos. That's to be expected.

I think the OP's point about Welker declining is a valid one. Evidence suggests he's definitely in the decline stage of his career.

I only saw him vs the Ravens. He looked quick as ever. Unless he really looked slow vs moron Eli's team, I disagree. Point being, the GOAT ain't his QB anymore and there are other deeper threat X, Y guys worthy of targeting in Denver, something missing here since early 2010, (TEs excepted).