We will never know what BB is being paid or for how long his contract is. There will be people who think that they know, but they won't.
Agreed.
To me the question is, is $10mil worth it from Kraft's point of view?
Kraft's stated "on the field" objective for the team is to be competitive (defined by him as making or being highly competitive for a playoff spot) every year. I don't think there's any doubt in anybody's mind that BB would pass the test on that score. So, check.
The question we can't answer is how would $10 (presumably along with increases in Assistants, etc. salaries) fit with Kraft's financial objectives and the question we really can't answer is whether BB may well indeed be worth a lot more than that to other owners.
It's no secret that the Patriots are ranked second or third among the most valuable franchises in the NFL, somewhere north of $1.1b, or around 4.8 times revenue (the league median is probably around 4.7, if we believe Forbes). Considering that Kraft paid $172 for the team in 1994 (in addition to what he paid for the old stadium and land), it certainly seems easy to say that any marginal payment to take BB to $10 and upgrade his assistants' salaries would be easily justifiable. However, Kraft is carrying a boatload of debt from the new stadium deal to the extent that his debt ratio is among the highest in the league. This drives (in relative terms) his operating profit down, so that his operating earnings rank eighth, while the revenues the Patriots generate rank second.
If Kraft believes that the franchise is now sufficiently branded and if he is reasonably confident of the power of his ancillary income from the stadium and other rights to sustain his revenues and his value to revenue ratio, as a businessperson, he might decide that he shouldn't increase his operating costs and so could decide not to pay. Or he might decide, OK, $8--10 is as far as I will go. But there may be other owners for whom Belichick's value far exceeds $10.
Anyway, as a fan, I sure hope that he pays the $10mil if that's what the market is saying BB is worth and I hope that the bond between Kraft and Belichick is strong enough to keep Belichick in Foxboro for the rest of his career.
There may, however, be other owners for whom the economic value-added that Belichick would bring in terms of improved revenues and franchise value would make significantly more than $10mil a no brainer. To my mind, that is what we need to worry about.
I personally believe that Belichick is a once in a generation coach, comparable to Halas and Brown and Lombardi. With today's open and capital-stuffed markets, his value could be very high indeed.
