Too much KoolAid?

[everlong]

They were talking this morning about how ESPN the mag picked the Pats to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs with the Fins winning the divsion. They pretty much laughed that off but then turned to how many publications only have them at 10 wins so is it really that far fetched.

They conceeded an at worst 5-1 divisional record. Fair enough I can see them slipping up once. But then they said their aren't 5 more clear cut wins.

Even worst case in my mind lets say they go .500 in the remaining games.

NFCS Panther, Bucs, Saints and Falcons. Really 2-2 is worst case.
AFCN Browns, Bengals, Steelers and Ravens. Again cannot see worse than 2-2Denver and Houston. 1-1 is pretty reasonable.

I just cannot for the life of me minus a 2008 Nightmare at Patriot Place part 2 see worse than 11-5 as the worst case scenario.

In my mind 5-1 divsion, 3-1 vs NFCS, 3-1 vs AFCN and 2-0 vs Houston and Indy........ooops I mean Denver.

 

[dales804]

I'd like to think 11 wins is a given but it's really not. They could go 0-4 against the NFCS this year. I think that's worst case, not 2-2. HOU and DEN could be 0-2, too. I have high hopes for this year but am not dismissing the fact that they have games on their schedule that are going to be tough, as it seems right now. I do think they'll be 12-4, however.

 

[BTTA]

My Koollaid problem is about Brady. He looks sharper than I've ever seen him. I know the rooks will have some early difficulties with real defenses, but Brady just looks ridiculous so far. Maybe his shoulder is finally healed up?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The offense will be fine come November. All the parts will be in place, and Brady will have them scoring as much as anyone else. The Patriots will be tested by a lot of good quarterbacks this year, and that is ultimately what will determine their fate. I don't really care what there record is. I would like to see them shut down good passing games for once and come up with a big defensive effort, especially on the road.

 

[Rob0729]

Did you see some of the ESPN predictions? They have the Chiefs with more wins the Pats. I think it is ESPN trying to create controversy than too much Koolaid on our parts.

Also, when was the predictions made? Was it before Brady has been on fire in the preseason?

 

[Fencer]

There's a lot of risk to the defense -- will it hold up against the inevitable injuries? It's thin at almost every position with respect to proven performers. (ILB is the only exception that comes to mind.)

There's also a lot of reliance on rookie receivers (potentially including Sudfeld). Let's hope they still look good after there's a bit of film on them.

 

[Gronkandez]

The receiving corps is still a big question, esp with Amendola's injury questions and the defensive secondary always seems to be in disarray. An injury to McCourty or Talib would be really leave them thin (unless you're a Tavon Wilson fan.....)

 

[jmt57]

I'm hesitant to ever predict that any team will go better than 12-4 in a year.

Nearly every team has that one wtf game (think Pats vs Browns three years ago), so there's one loss.

There really is not a substantial difference between teams the way there is in say college football, so just a couple of bad bounces, a tipped pass, a blown call by the refs can easily decide a game. So while the Patriots will be favored against teams like the Steelers, Bucs and Panthers you can't just assume that every one of those is an automatic win.

That becomes even more the case with opponents that are better than those in that group (Falcons, Saints, Bengals, Ravens).

From spring to the beginning of training camp I was thinking 11-5, but I have enough cautious optimism (aka KoolAid in sips, not gulps) from the newcomers at WR and TE to consider upping that to 12-4.

 

[Deus Irae]

Given the title (and not regarding the O.P., or any other, content), I think this is a good day to crack this out:

 

[mgteich]

THe SIX GAMES (you have it as 5-1)
AFCN you are 3-1, they probably are 2-2
Houston and Denver - you are 2-0, they are probably 1-1
================================
I can see how others might have us losing more games.

Your worst cases are not that. There are few gimmies outside the division (TB and Carolina come to mind).

I have us 11-5; but then, that has my prediction every year since the SB after the 2001 season.

They were talking this morning about how ESPN the mag picked the Pats to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs with the Fins winning the divsion. They pretty much laughed that off but then turned to how many publications only have them at 10 wins so is it really that far fetched.

They conceeded an at worst 5-1 divisional record. Fair enough I can see them slipping up once. But then they said their aren't 5 more clear cut wins.

Even worst case in my mind lets say they go .500 in the remaining games.

NFCS Panther, Bucs, Saints and Falcons. Really 2-2 is worst case.
AFCN Browns, Bengals, Steelers and Ravens. Again cannot see worse than 2-2Denver and Houston. 1-1 is pretty reasonable.

I just cannot for the life of me minus a 2008 Nightmare at Patriot Place part 2 see worse than 11-5 as the worst case scenario.

In my mind 5-1 divsion, 3-1 vs NFCS, 3-1 vs AFCN and 2-0 vs Houston and Indy........ooops I mean Denver.

 

[Ive_Killed_People]

Too much by at least an 'L'

 

[Mack Herron]

One need only imagine a season with Ryan Mallett at the helm. One heartbeat away, as they say.

 

[Rob0729]

One need only imagine a season with Ryan Mallett at the helm. One heartbeat away, as they say.

Yeah, but that is the case for every team. No one has Steve Young holding their clipboard for them like the 49ers did back in the late 80s and early 90s.

 

[BradyFTW!]

NFCS Panther, Bucs, Saints and Falcons. Really 2-2 is worst case.
AFCN Browns, Bengals, Steelers and Ravens. Again cannot see worse than 2-2Denver and Houston. 1-1 is pretty reasonable.

They'll be playing the following teams that are clearly worse than them:
Jets x2
Bills x2
Dolphins x2
Panthers
Bucs
Browns
Steelers

They'll be playing the following teams that I think they're better than, but you can make an argument:
Saints
Bengals
Ravens
Texans

They're about even with
Falcons
Broncos

I expect that they'll win 12 games, and I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Brady stays healthy and they win less than 11. Of course, all of this preseason conjecture goes out the window once the season starts, and we end up with a few teams that everyone likes turning out bad, and a few teams that everyone disregards turning out to be good.

 

[BradyFTW!]

THe SIX GAMES (you have it as 5-1)
AFCN you are 3-1, they probably are 2-2
Houston and Denver - you are 2-0, they are probably 1-1
================================
I can see how others might have us losing more games.

Your worst cases are not that. There are few gimmies outside the division (TB and Carolina come to mind).

I have us 11-5; but then, that has my prediction every year since the SB after the 2001 season.

How do you see AFCN as probably 2-2? Browns and Steelers should both be fairly easy wins, at least in NFL terms. Bengals and Ravens will both be tough. IMO, 3-1 is the most likely AFCN outcome, with 4-0 being more likely than 2-2.

 

[Rob0729]

ESPN has the Pats 1-7 on the road including a loss in one of the Jets' 4 wins that they predict they will win this season.

https://twitter.com/vipstrippers/status/370237058541166592/photo/1

 

[goheels22002]

I am enjoying the Kool-Aid this year. Not because of the offense, mind you, because of the defense.

This is the best defense the Patriots have had in six or seven years. I expect this team to cut down on the big plays and get down to 17.5 to 18 points allowed per game this year. If this defense consistently holds opponents to fewer than 20 ppg, the offense will take care of the rest.

I am also high on the running game and it's ability to sustain drives and get first downs on 3rd and short. That makes the defense better.

The addition of two solid, physical veterans - Tommy Kelly and Adrian Wilson - was exactly what the doctor ordered for a defense that has been completely re-made from front to back over the past three years. Front three or four: excellent against the run and versatile in the passing game, linebackers: outstanding, defensive backs: best combination of youth and experience in years with the added benefit stability. We have yet to see McCourty at safety to really understand the rotation there with Wilson, Wilson and Gregory.

The four CBs (with McCourty a more than capable emergency back-up) are the best cover group in a long time. When Talib and Dennard were outside with Arrington in the slot for that brief span last year, all the big-play nonsense that drove us crazy disappeared.

This edition of the Patriots is one that will win games because, not in spite, of the defense. Pour me another, Mr. Bartender, sir.

 

[jmt57]

A compilation by two of the most beloved sources on this site, PFF and espnTheMagazine has a very different outlook for the Patriots

Yep, these esteemed experts have the Patriots going 9-7 - including 1-7 on the road - with just a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Interestingly they have the Pats starting out 3-0 (without Gronk) and then finishing 6-7 with him.

PFFfffff / bspnTheRag weekly predictions:
09/08 Win at Bills, 27-24
09/12 Win vs Jets, 45-3
09/22 Win vs Bucs, 25-17
09/29 Loss at Falcons, 27-20
10/06 Loss at Bengals, 24-17
10/13 Win vs Saints, 29-16
10/20 Loss at Jets, 13-10
10/27 Win vs Dolphins, 26-16
11/10 Win vs Steelers, 34-14
11/18 Loss at Panthers, 41-34
11/24 Win vs Broncos, 27-15
12/01 Loss at Texans, 30-12
12/08 Win vs Browns, 28-13
12/15 Loss at Dolphins, 23-20
12/22 Loss at Ravens, 16-6
12/29 Win vs Bills, 38-21

 

[goheels22002]

A compilation by two of the most beloved sources on this site, PFF and espnTheMagazine has a very different outlook for the Patriots

Yep, these esteemed experts have the Patriots going 9-7 - including 1-7 on the road - with just a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Interestingly they have the Pats starting out 3-0 (without Gronk) and then finishing 6-7 with him.

PFFfffff / bspnTheRag weekly predictions:
09/08 Win at Bills, 27-24
09/12 Win vs Jets, 45-3
09/22 Win vs Bucs, 25-17
09/29 Loss at Falcons, 27-20
10/06 Loss at Bengals, 24-17
10/13 Win vs Saints, 29-16
10/20 Loss at Jets, 13-10
10/27 Win vs Dolphins, 26-16
11/10 Win vs Steelers, 34-14
11/18 Loss at Panthers, 41-34
11/24 Win vs Broncos, 27-15
12/01 Loss at Texans, 30-12
12/08 Win vs Browns, 28-13
12/15 Loss at Dolphins, 23-20
12/22 Loss at Ravens, 16-6
12/29 Win vs Bills, 38-21

Nice chart but I do not see the Patriots losing to the Jets, the Dolphins, the Ravens, or the Panthers.

Football Nation has the Ravens going 7-9 including a two TD loss to the Pats: http://www.footballnation.com/content/baltimore-ravens-2013-game-by-game-predictions/23700/2/

These geniuses have the South Beach Dolphins coming to Foxboro in December and walking out with a win. Ain't gonna happen.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Standing by my prediction of 14-2