Why do people still think Pats will draft a Day 1 LB?

[GHOSTOFSAMGASH]

It is a shame the combine is probably going to make Zak Deossie go from a day 2 pick possibly up to round 2 or 3, BB had gone to watch him play personally and probably thought that he would be able to steal him with a 5th or 6th round pick but ever since the shrine game has stock has just continued to go up

 

[tombonneau]

"Why do people still think Pats will draft a Day 1 LB?"


Fair question. Some reasons, off the top of my head:

- Because it's the biggest hole on the team. LB is the only position missing a starter altogether, and Eric Alexander and Pierre Woods are the primary backups.

- Because the Patriots do draft to plug holes. (See Mankins, Logan et al).

- Because even if they pick up a solid FA or 2, at least 3 of their 4 starters will be over 30 entering the season.

- Because the LB talent in this draft is pretty good but not deep, so if you want anybody with the rare physical/mental makeup of a 3-4 LB you'd better act fast.

- Because we're talking about a team that "reached" for a guard in the 1st and a placekicker in the 4th, so forget about rules.

- Because one thing we do know is that BB places a premium on "rare body types" like NT, DE, TE, LT...and OLB.

- Because the Patriots have 4 day-1 picks.

I agree with all those reasons and hope that the Pats grab a LB in the 1st or 2nd. But it probably won't happen.

I wish I could convince myself into thinking that bc the team ID'd Vilma (a top 10 -12 pick) as an elite LB and targeted him that this means they will take a LB early. But this more likely proves the rule -- that it would take an elite and unique specimen like Vilma for the Pats to take a LB in the 1st.

 

[JDP111]

I think the Pats will be best served making a strong run at AT, I think that getting Thomas minimizes the risk at a position of need in our defense. Keep the draft picks to upgrade the DB's. Add another corner, perhaps McCauley, and if Griffin was there at 24, I'd love to see the Pats take him. He seems to be a ballhawk and has the athleticism/strength to both support the run, and to defend the pass. However, if Willis fell to the Pats, I think it would be very tough for the Patriots not to take him; although I think Willis is off the board at that point, probably to Miami.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I agree with all those reasons and hope that the Pats grab a LB in the 1st or 2nd. But it probably won't happen.

I wish I could convince myself into thinking that bc the team ID'd Vilma (a top 10 -12 pick) as an elite LB and targeted him that this means they will take a LB early. But this more likely proves the rule -- that it would take an elite and unique specimen like Vilma for the Pats to take a LB in the 1st.

Our favorite spring crap shoot, how will the Pats see and address the holes we see as fans. Vilma is an excellent talent, but since he's a Jester I enjoy watching him disappear when one of the OLs get their hands on him. As much as I like the consensus "studs" like Willis and Posluzney, I'm just not convinced backers who look like they're maxed out near 240 lbs are the solution to the Pats needs no matter how talented.

 

[captain stone]

www.patscap.com/2007fas.xls

Go up to the top and sort by LBs.

How do you sort by position on this dam thing? I have no idea how this works.

Edit: Nevermind. I think I have a handle on it now, although how do you turn off Quick Cell? I accidently erased 2 cells in the D column, and when I tried to type "LB" in them, the letters became bold and 1 size too big (14 instead of 12).

 

[Gon_Trevil]

Our favorite spring crap shoot, how will the Pats see and address the holes we see as fans. Vilma is an excellent talent, but since he's a Jester I enjoy watching him disappear when one of the OLs get their hands on him. As much as I like the consensus "studs" like Willis and Posluzney, I'm just not convinced backers who look like they're maxed out near 240 lbs are the solution to the Pats needs no matter how talented.

Not flaming or anything, but what's your basis for saying Willis looks maxed out at 240?

While I'm on that note, does anyone know of a good place or a good way to find out how players progress in terms of strength and weight from the day they're at the combine to the day they have 3-5 years in the league? I remember Bellichick mentioning that one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for rookies is their lack of physical strength as compared to some of the older guys in their primes (I believe he was talking about how Ryan O'Callahan was an exception to that rule).

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Not flaming or anything, but what's your basis for saying Willis looks maxed out at 240?

While I'm on that note, does anyone know of a good place or a good way to find out how players progress in terms of strength and weight from the day they're at the combine to the day they have 3-5 years in the league? I remember Bellichick mentioning that one of the biggest hurdles to overcome for rookies is their lack of physical strength as compared to some of the older guys in their primes (I believe he was talking about how Ryan O'Callahan was an exception to that rule).

Looking at Willis' build when they showed him at the weigh-in, and when he was at the Senior Bowl, I just don't see a lot of room to pack on more muscle. I'm looking at Sartz on screen as I type this, he's tall and skinny, there's room for a Woicik to build him up more. Obviously, it's a subjective assessment supplemented by my advanced degree in couch tater.

 

[PromisedLand]

Straight from the coach's mouth

BB is on the record as saying he doesn't like to use inexperienced players at positions that involve a lot of on-field decision making. He is also on record as explaining that the closer to the center of the field you line up, the more on-field decision making is required - especially behind the front lines. Thus, the QB position on offense and the middle linebackers and safeties on defense do the most on-field decision making. This is his own explanation for why he doesn't generally use high draft picks on these positions.

If you look at the starting linebackers in the BB era, we have:

Tedy Bruschi - low round pick, played DE in college, had 6-7 years experience before he became a starter

Mike Vrabel - mid-range free agent pickup, experience in 3-4

Rosy Colvin - high-price free agent pickup, pass rushing specialist who had demonstrated high success in the NFL.

Willie McGinest - very high draft pick (#4 overall) inherited from previous regimes, played down lineman before transitioning to linebacker, several years experience before BB got him.

Ted Johnson - high draft pick, inherited from previous regimes, several years experience before BB got him.

Roman Phifer - very experienced veteran free agent pickup who played for BB for the Jets.

Bryan Cox - see Phifer

Jr. Seau - future hall-of-famer, 16 or 17 years experience before coming to Patriots, playing in 3-4 under BB disciple Nick Saban.

TBC - backup who became a starter only after an injury to Seau, and only in his 5th year in the league.

Chad Brown, Monty Beisel - experienced free-agent pickups, neither worked out but that doesn't change BB's philosophy.

(Did I miss anyone?)

Anyway, by now you should be seeing a pattern here. That's not to say the BB won't use a high draft pick on a linebacker, but it would have to be a guy who BB feels is exceptional in many ways, including his ability to fit into our system.

 

[tombonneau]

Re: Straight from the coach's mouth

BB is on the record as saying he doesn't like to use inexperienced players at positions that involve a lot of on-field decision making. He is also on record as explaining that the closer to the center of the field you line up, the more on-field decision making is required - especially behind the front lines. Thus, the QB position on offense and the middle linebackers and safeties on defense do the most on-field decision making. This is his own explanation for why he doesn't generally use high draft picks on these positions.

If you look at the starting linebackers in the BB era, we have:

Tedy Bruschi - low round pick, played DE in college, had 6-7 years experience before he became a starter

Mike Vrabel - mid-range free agent pickup, experience in 3-4

Rosy Colvin - high-price free agent pickup, pass rushing specialist who had demonstrated high success in the NFL.

Willie McGinest - very high draft pick (#4 overall) inherited from previous regimes, played down lineman before transitioning to linebacker, several years experience before BB got him.

Ted Johnson - high draft pick, inherited from previous regimes, several years experience before BB got him.

Roman Phifer - very experienced veteran free agent pickup who played for BB for the Jets.

Bryan Cox - see Phifer

Jr. Seau - future hall-of-famer, 16 or 17 years experience before coming to Patriots, playing in 3-4 under BB disciple Nick Saban.

TBC - backup who became a starter only after an injury to Seau, and only in his 5th year in the league.

Chad Brown, Monty Beisel - experienced free-agent pickups, neither worked out but that doesn't change BB's philosophy.

(Did I miss anyone?)

Anyway, by now you should be seeing a pattern here. That's not to say the BB won't use a high draft pick on a linebacker, but it would have to be a guy who BB feels is exceptional in many ways, including his ability to fit into our system.

Thanks for explaining in detail the exact point I was trying to make. (Only better.)

 

[PromisedLand]

Re: Straight from the coach's mouth

Thanks for explaining in detail the exact point I was trying to make. (Only better.)

No problem, buddy.

 

[salty]

Great post, PromisedLand. I think the situation is a bit different this year in that the cupboard is mostly bare at LB, and the players that we do have at the position are all getting up there. So I think that this will be the year that the Patriots front office deviates from their past practice of only pursuing veteran linebackers. I could be wrong though, it sure wouldn't be the first time!

 

[shirtsleeve]

You all have a point. God I'd like to tear off into a rant right now about this year being different in so many ways, yada yada yada.

As good as BB/SP have been in building a team to compete, and you cant argue their overall philosophy, on draft day, I really, really, really miss the Tuna. Guy drafted after my own heart, to fit players into this system. Ahhh, the good ol' days, when you KNEW our whole first day was going to O line, and especially Defense......

 

[PromisedLand]

Great post, PromisedLand. I think the situation is a bit different this year in that the cupboard is mostly bare at LB, and the players that we do have at the position are all getting up there. So I think that this will be the year that the Patriots front office deviates from their past practice of only pursuing veteran linebackers. I could be wrong though, it sure wouldn't be the first time!

No, I agree it is always a possibility. As someone pointed out, BB has stated he would have drafted Vilma had he been there when we picked. But I think it is more likely he will try to find an experienced vet in the free agent market.

It is getting harder, however, to find these guys. He can't bring in guys from his old teams (like Phifer and Cox) anymore, and there are several teams (Jets, Browns, perhaps others) now following the Patriots model and competing for the same Vrabel/Colvin types of player. Perhaps this is why BB/SP failed on Beisel and Chad Brown. Still, I suspect they aren't going to readily give up on this approach.

On the other hand, who is to say they won't do both - spend a high draft pick and pick up an experienced vet?