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Deus Irae

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Ok, it's the very beginning of training camp, so it's the perfect time for round one of "Who makes the playoffs?" In that light, let's see where people are now, while we're still looking at things basically unseen. 6 teams and, if you like, a couple of near misses. My first take:

Patriots
Steelers
Texans
Broncos
Colts
Bengals

Ravens
Dolphins
Chiefs
 
Ok, it's the very beginning of training camp, so it's the perfect time for round one of "Who makes the playoffs?" In that light, let's see where people are now, while we're still looking at things basically unseen. 6 teams and, if you like, a couple of near misses. My first take:

Patriots
Steelers
Texans
Broncos
Colts
Bengals

Ravens
Dolphins
Chiefs

I am still not sold on Cincy. Put the Ravens in there instead of the Bengals and I agree with the rest.
 
1. Broncos
2. Pats
3. Texans
4. Bengals
5. Colts
6. Dolphins
 
1. Broncos (13-3)
2. Pats (12-4)
3. Bengals (11-5)
4. Texans (11-5)
5. Colts (10-6)
6. Steelers (10-6)
--------------------------------
7. Chargers (10-6)
8. Ravens (9-7)
9. Dolphins (8-8)
 
Division Winners:
1. Patriots
2. Texans
3. Bengals
4. Broncos

Wild Card:
5. Ravens
6. Colts

See the Bengals getting the division over the Ravens, and the Ravens pulling away from the tired and mediocre Steelers late in the season. Essentially, my AFC outlook doesn't change much.
 
1. Broncos
2. Pats
3. Bengals
4. Texans
5. Colts
6. Steelers

The AFC looks very weak this year with no clear favorite (no matter what the media says about the Broncos). I can see any configuration of the top 4 teams, but will give the Pats and Broncs the edge on the bye because of their weak divisions. Also, I can see a 9-7 or even an 8-8 team make the playoffs this season. I had real trouble picking that last Wild Card spot.
 
1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Patriots
4. Steelers
5. Colts
6. Ravens
-----------
Bengals on the outside looking in.
 
Division Winners:

New England 16-0
Denver - 14-2
Baltimore - 11-5
Houston - 11-5

Wildcard:
Pittsburgh - 10-6
Indy - 10-6
 
Division Champions:
1) Denver Broncos: (13-3)
2) Houston Texans: (12-4)
3) New England Patriots: (11-5)
4) Cincinnati Bengals: (11-5)

Wild Card:
5) Baltimore Ravens: (11-5)
6) Pittsburgh Steelers: (10-6)

The Broncos are the class of the conference, don't even try and say otherwise. They also have the easiest schedule, and should be favored in every game. It's foolish to predict a realistic 16-0, and Manning always has his hiccups. 13-3 seems fair, barring injury.

The Texans are returning intact and with upgrades at WR and S. If not for an unexpected fallout at the end of the season, and teams realizing that Andre Johnson was their only real weapon, they could have easily beaten out the Broncos for the 1 seed, in my opinion.

The Patriots have Tom Brady, so you can never count them out, especially in the AFC East. The Dolphins have improved, but their schedule is brutal and I don't know if they can sustain anything for long stretches. No Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, or Woodhead, but in their stead remains a still respectable stable of Tight Ends, a dynamic 1-2 punch at Running Back, and Wide Receivers that may be young but arguably have more potential than any Wide Receiver they've had since Randy Moss. Brady has worked with less and won more, I think 11-5 is fair.

For the first time in a long time, the Bengals have the most talent in the AFC North. The question is, can they be the best team? I think they can. Dalton has all he needs at his disposal, it's time for him to step up. That defense is a vicious as it gets. They'll win out over the Ravens in a tie breaker.
 
I am still not sold on Cincy. Put the Ravens in there instead of the Bengals and I agree with the rest.

I'm not sold on Cincy either, but I think both the Ravens and Steelers are even worse.

I am not sold on the Ravens' addition to defense and their offense is a mess. Flacco lost his two favorite targets from the playoffs last year and need to rely on a wildly inconsistent Torrey Smith and a bunch of back ups.

The Steelers window looks like it may be shutting. Their defense isn't what it was and a lot of their recent draft picks on that side have not panned out. Also, I am wondering if injuries are starting to catch up to Roethlisberger.
 
The Broncos are the class of the conference, don't even try and say otherwise. They also have the easiest schedule, and should be favored in every game. It's foolish to predict a realistic 16-0, and Manning always has his hiccups. 13-3 seems fair, barring injury.

The Broncos will likely win HFA because of their schedule, but I don't think anyone is the class of the AFC this year. I think if they were in another division last year, they would have been a 10-11 win team. Everyone is focusing on the addition of Welker, but ignoring other key losses like Dumerville, potentially Von Miller for a 1/4 of the season, and now Koppen.

The Broncos are clearly one of the top teams, but I am not sold on them as the class of the AFC. They got six guaranteed wins, but even with there relatively weak schedule I think 16-0 is unrealistic (it is unrealistic for every team for every year even the when the Pats did get to 16-0).
 
My way-too-early guess:

1. Broncos
2. Texans
3. Patriots
4. Bengals
5. Ravens
6. Dolphins

Just miss: Steelers, Colts, Chargers



The Pats' games at Cincinnati and Houston will have a great deal of impact on the playoff seeding. I'm not buying into the Miami hype, but somebody has to get that wild card spot and I think Indy vastly overachieved last year, while Pittsburgh is a team in transition.
 
1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Patriots
4. Bengals
5. Colts
6. Ravens

Near misses: Steelers, Chiefs
 
1. Texans
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Bengals
5. Ravens
6. Who the hell knows? Probably Dolphins or Chargers.
 
Pats
Broncos
Texans
Steelers

Colts
Bengals
 
AFC East - New England
AFC North - Cincinnati
AFC South - Houston
AFC West - Kansas City

Two Wildcards - Denver (lack of defense is going to hurt this team despite their mediocre schedule) and Indianapolis (Luck doesn't improve on his passing consistency)

New England and Kansas City are the 1 and 2 seeds.

Shocker Special.
 
1. Patriots (12-4)
2. Broncos (12-4)(this is a one and done just waiting to happen)
3. Texans (11-5)
4. Steelers (10-6)
5. Ravens (9-7)
6. Colts (9-7)
Just missed:Bengals(8-8) and Chargers(8-8)
 
Patriots - Division Champ
Dolphins - WC (not ruling out the East title)
Cincinnati - Division champ (finally comes out from the shadows of Pitt and Balt)
Ravens - WC
Texans - Division Champ
Broncos - Division Champ

Close but no cigar....

San Diego
Cleveland (their defense is very good)
Oakland...(yes the Raiders may surprise some this year)


Houston will have a 13-3 record and the #1 seed
Cincinnati will have a 12-4 record and the #2 seed
New England and Denver tied at 10-6 and a fight for the 3rd and 4th seeds

Miami loses the East with a 10-6 record by virtue of tiebreakers and is the 5th seed

Baltimore edges out San Diego/Cleveland and Oakland with a 9-7 record,good enough for the 6th seed
 
AFC East: NY Jets

what?
 
OK, in a spirit of (slight) contrarianism:

1. Broncos
2. Colts
3. Patriots
4. Ravens

+

5. Texans
6. Dolphins

I expect the Broncos to steamroller the regular season and am relying on one of the greatest coaches of all time to keep the Patriots solid. I'm predicting an upswing for the Colts over the Texans in the South. I'm not sold on Cincinnati and I agree that the Steelers' window may be closing. I also think that the demise of the Ravens may be being exaggerated. So they get the Central Division. And the well-there's-one-every-season team that over-achieves is the Fins.
 


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