Patriots Offensive Point Total

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Curious to hear how big you think the drop will be from 2012 to 2013, with all the turnover and uncertainty on offense.

To put things in perspective, it's unrealistic to believe any franchise can continually put up top-10 all-time seasons on either offense or defense. It's pretty amazing that the Patriots have now had at least three seasons (2007, 2010, 2012) that have put them in the running for best offense ever (in 2010, it was more about efficiency.)

2012- 557
2011- 515
2010- 518
2009- 427
2008- 410
2007- 589
2006- 385
2005- 379
2004- 437
2003- 348
2002- 381
2001- 371

A couple of things: it's amazing that the Patriots actually scored more points in 2006 than 2005, as they lost Branch and were left with virtually nothing on offense besides Brady. Chad Jackson, the great hope much like Dobson/Boyce this year, never panned out either.

It's also incredible to think that last year's teams scored only 2 ppg less than the 2007 team, although we think of the '07 team as much more dominant on offense, and last year's team was missing either Gronk or Hernandez nearly the entire year. You have to wonder if with a healthy 2 TEs they might have actually broken the offensive record set five years earlier.

Anyway, my prediction for next year is 450 points, but I think the Patriots will struggle badly against good defenses. With Brady, they will always be capable of hanging 40 on the dregs of the league, but I think it will be like 2009 where the overall output was okay, but it was frustrating to watch them look inept half the time.

What's your take?

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

My take is that the Offense will continue to put up very good numbers despite the wide receiver turnover. As mentioned before, the run game is better then ever with talent and productivity flowing over. We have what looks to be a consistent rising star and 1,200 runner and very talented dual threat running back that has great receiving skills, then two powerful and fully capable running-backs behind them. So that alone, will open things up offensively, especially the passing game with playaction and etc. And don't forget the offensive line too. Those two factors alone, add to points, opportunies and TDs, or at least leads to it. Secondly, people are so freakin blind to the fact that there is a lot of talent at WR despite loosing Wes Welker and the overrated Brandon Lloyd, but because the media and fans here can sometimes get spoiled, they often forget that we have talent and that they THINK they are better talent evaluators then Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the staff and forget how many games and titles these guys have won and how many record setting offensive seasons they've put together. You simply CANNOT compare Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce to previous draft picks at WR, especially considering the fact that I'm pretty sure the staff is aware of past failures before the draft and made every effort this time to get it right. And besides, these guys have intangibles, particularly intellectually that just wasn't the case with recent draft picks at that position. Thirdly, even after these rookies, you have guys like SB Champ TE Jake Ballard who is an above average good pass catcher (just ask Coughlin), Julian Edelman who if healthy is very capable and has the talent and experience in this offense, Donald Jones who suffered poor QB and Offensive system and veteran Michael Jenkins who despite never having a QB to throw to him still has a solid veteran career stat-sheet that could be a lot worst. And did I forget Danny Amendola, who at this point in his career has better attributes and stats coming in to NE then Wes Welker did in 2007, even with Sam Bradford throwing him the ball still looked outstanding. So imagine what Tom Brady could do to this guy? And the numbers they could put up? You add all of that together, and the chances for having an offense that's just a good as recent years is really high.

- The Head Coach, Staff and QB are the leagues best and too good, too experienced and too smart
- The WR corp actually has more talent, YOUTH, athleticism, upside, versatility, brains and speed then in recent years
- You don't just have a slot guy and an outside the numbers guy but different receivers now who can all do different things and line up anywhere and also offer deep ball ability or at least the threat
- Coach Brian Daboll, the guy that resurrected the careers of David Patten, Troy Brown and developed and groomed a young David Givens and Deion Branch is back, so just imagine what he could do with all of this fresh talent considering what he did with what he had back then?
- The Offensive Line is dominant as is their coach
- Dominant running game and deep pool of depth
- And the fact that Rob Gronkowski is still coming back at some point during the season.
- And again, I think many are underestimating the draft pick of Aaron Dobson, especially considering the fact that he is better then about 90% percent of the WR's taken in the draft and gets to play with the best QB in the game and learn under the best coach with a great OC and he gets no love? When others do with no qbs or staff? REALLY? Some people are just stupid .. So I'd say the total stays in at least the 500's or more.

 

[supafly]

A dropoff of around a TD per game from last season, which would still put them on pace to score in the high 20's on average.

 

[jmt57]

I'm thinking that while the offense surely will regress in terms of points scored, the defense will improve. Although it may be unrealistic to think that the Pats defense is going to improve much beyond last year's 9th in points allowed, they can certainly improve on their yardage allowed (25th) and passing yards (29th). Getting off the field more quickly could in turn help the Pats offense somewhat.

In terms of how many points will the Pats score, let's look at the team immediately behind them:

30.1 -- Broncos
28.8 -- Saints
27.3 -- Redskins
27.1 -- Packers​

My guess is that the Patriots will not be in the top five.


More likely they will be somewhere in 6-9 range, comparing to last year's results:

26.8 -- Giants
26.2 -- Falcons
26.0 -- Texans
25.8 -- Seahawks​

And slightly above the rest of the top half of the NFL teams:

24.9 -- Ravens
24.8 -- 49ers
24.4 -- Bengals
24.3 -- Buccaneers
23.7 -- Vikings
23.5 -- Vikings
23.4 -- Bears​

So, does an average of about 26-27 points per game sound about right? Based on what other NFL teams like the Seahawks, Texans and Falcons (on the low end) or Giants, Packers and Redskins (on the high end) scored last year, that's where the 2012 Patriots would be. Is the dropoff of that low projection (26 ppg, 416 points) overly pessimistic, and the higher projection (27 ppg, 432 points) more likely? I don't know, but somewhere in that ballpark sounds right to me as of right now.

 

[Patjew]

I'm predicting a dropoff of about ∞.

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

Sticking to my word, 500 pts or more :rocker:

 

[Archeryaddict12]

530 points

 

[Joker]

I'm predicting a dropoff of about ∞.

what??????

this isn't the dropoff lane for Norwood Infiniti....buy a Lexus next time