17 Almost Locks On Offense

[mgteich]

I'm bored.
Let's discuss the roster at this point, between camps.

If all these players are healthy and producing, I wouldn't expect a lot of reps from others. Of course, depth, ST and development is what the end of the roster is about. For example, I certainly expect significant production from wide receivers not on this list.

OFFENSE (17)
QB (1) Brady
TE (2) Gronkowski, Ballard
RB (3) Ridley, Vereen, Washington
WR (3) Amendola, Dobson, Bryce
OL (6) Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Connolly, Vollmer, Cannon
ST (2) Slater, Edelman

So, we have room for 6-9 additional positions on offense.

 

[Deus Irae]

You can add Mallett to the list.

 

[Tunescribe]

I'm curious why Bryce would be considered a "lock" at this point.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm curious why Bryce would be considered a "lock" at this point.

Every player the Patriots have drafted in the first four rounds under Belichick has made the payroll Week 1 of his rookie season (some on IR, but nevertheless on the payroll).

The only fourth rounder the Patriots cut in his rookie season was Kareem Brown, but that was in the sui generis year of 2007.

 

[jmt57]

I would say that the following are virtual locks for whatever reasons (expectations for this year's club based on past performance, draft status, financial commitment, salary cap implications, etc.)

QB (1) - Tom Brady
RB (2) - Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen
TE (1) - Rob Gronkowski
WR (3) - Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce
OL (4) - Nate Solder, Logan Mankins, Ryan Wendell, Sebastian Vollmer
ST (1) - Matthew Slater

After that I would place the following five players in a 'highly likely to make the roster' status, but not a lock:

QB (1) - Ryan Mallett
TE (1) - Jake Ballard
OL (3) - Marcus Cannon, Dan Connolly, Will Svitek


In my opinion the rest are fighting for one of nine roster spots, with varying degrees of likelihood. (These numbers are off the top of my head so apologies in advance for those that don't add up correctly).

QB - Tim Tebow (25%)
RB/FB - Leon Washington (75%); one of either Brandon Bolden or LeGarrette Blount (75%); the other of Bolden/Blount (25%); one of James Develin, Ben Bartholomew, George Winn (25%)
TE - Daniel Fells, Michael Hoomanawanui, Zach Sudfeld: choose two at 90%, all all three at 75%; Brandon Ford (10%)
WR - Michael Jenkins, Donald Jones and Julian Edelman: pick two (90%); between whichever of those three gets left out, plus the rest - Kenbrell Thompkins, Kamar Aiken, Lavelle Hawkins, Mark Harrison - 20%
OT - one of Kevin Haslam or Elvis Fisher (20%)
G/C - Nick McDonald has the best chance of the rest to be the 8th OL, followed by Markus Zusevics; the rest (Josh Kline, Tyronne Green, R.J. Mattes, Chris McDonald, Matt Stankiewitch) combined might add up to 20%

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I would say that the following are virtual locks for whatever reasons (expectations for this year's club based on past performance, draft status, financial commitment, salary cap implications, etc.)

QB (1) - Tom Brady
RB (2) - Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen
TE (1) - Rob Gronkowski
WR (3) - Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce
OL (4) - Nate Solder, Logan Mankins, Ryan Wendell, Sebastian Vollmer


After that I would place the following five players in a 'highly likely to make the roster' status, but not a lock:

QB (1) - Ryan Mallett
TE (1) - Jake Ballard
OL (2) - Marcus Cannon, Dan Connolly, Will Svitek


In my opinion the rest are fighting for one of ten roster spots, with varying degrees of likelihood. (These numbers are off the top of my head so apologies in advance for those that don't add up correctly).

QB - Tim Tebow (25%)
RB/FB - Leon Washington (75%); one of either Brandon Bolden or LeGarrette Blount (75%); the other of Bolden/Blount (25%); one of James Develin, Ben Bartholomew, George Winn (25%)
TE - Daniel Fells, Michael Hoomanawanui, Zach Sudfeld: choose two at 90%, all all three at 75%; Brandon Ford (10%)
OT - one of Kevin Haslam or Elvis Fisher (20%)
G/C - Nick McDonald has the best chance of the rest to be the 8th OL, followed by Markus Zusevics; the rest (Josh Kline, Tyronne Green, R.J. Mattes, Chris McDonald, Matt Stankiewitch) combined might add up to 20%

Methinks the Pats will have more than three WRs.

 

[BTTA]

Methinks the Pats will have more than three WRs.

Arghh.The JMT prediction was looking easily manageable. Now, they need two more slots for WR's, coming from where? Blast!

 

[fnordcircle]

Considering that the Patriots have cut people like Bodden or Love that most would have considered, at the time of their being cut, likely to be with the team for a while I'm not sure I consider Ballard a lock at all.

Same for Washington and Edelman. I'm almost positive those guys will be on the 53 on week 1 but I don't consider them as much of a lock as I consider the others listed in the OP.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Considering that the Patriots have cut people like Bodden or Love that most would have considered, at the time of their being cut, likely to be with the team for a while I'm not sure I consider Ballard a lock at all.

Same for Washington and Edelman. I'm almost positive those guys will be on the 53 on week 1 but I don't consider them as much of a lock as I consider the others listed in the OP.

The definition of "lock" basically means "barring something completely unforeseen and unpredictable."

Kyle Love would have been a lock were it not for his diabetes.

Of course, Hern-idiot would have been a lock were it not for his "extracurriculars."

 

[Ive_Killed_People]

Tebow is a lock. There is no way in hell BB goes out on the limb to sign him and he doesnt make the roster.

 

[mgteich]

Tebow is a better prospect than Kafka, pue and simple.

Tebow is a lock. There is no way in hell BB goes out on the limb to sign him and he doesnt make the roster.

 

[mgteich]

Now The Rest Of The Story

OFFENSE (24)
QB (2) Brady, Mallett/Tebow
TE (4) Gronkowski, Ballard, Fells/Hooman/Sudfield (choose 2)
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, Washington, Blount/Bolden
WR (4) Amendola, Dobson, Bryce, Jenkins/Jones/Hawkins
OL (8) Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Connolly, Vollmer, Cannon, Svitek/McDonald/Zusevics (choose 2)
ST (2) Slater, Edelman

Barring further injuries, I think that we will have the above 24 positions.

Obviously, we could have a 25th and/or 26th player on offense, choosing among the losers of the battles. Many of you have already assumed Tebow as the 25th offense player. Some of us would prefer an additional offensive lineman, running back, wide receiver or even TE.

The great thing is that there is solid competition for all the backup spots.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Re: Now The Rest Of The Story

OFFENSE (24)
QB (2) Brady, Mallett/Tebow
TE (4) Gronkowski, Ballard, Fells/Hooman/Sudfield (choose 2)
RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, Washington, Blount/Bolden
WR (4) Amendola, Dobson, Bryce, Jenkins/Jones/Hawkins
OL (8) Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Connolly, Vollmer, Cannon, Svitek/McDonald/Zusevics (choose 2)
ST (2) Slater, Edelman

Barring further injuries, I think that we will have the above 24 positions.

Obviously, we could have a 25th and/or 26th player on offense, choosing among the losers of the battles. Many of you have already assumed Tebow as the 25th offense player. Some of us would prefer an additional offensive lineman, wide receiver or even TE.

The great thing is that there is solid competition for all the backup spots.

I think we have 25 on offense. No Tebow. Sudfeld over Fells and Hooman as the back up te's. Jones as the 4th wr in your set-up. I think Bolden and Blount both make it. We're gonna be running more. Svitek and McDonald as the 7th and 8th OL.

 

[jmt57]

Methinks the Pats will have more than three WRs.

I was bout to say those were just the so-called locks ... oops.

Commenting while answering the phone, responding to e-mails, and preparing for a conference call can be quite hazardous to accuracy.

:doh:

Thanks for the heads up, let me go back and fix that...

 

[mgteich]

Re: Now The Rest Of The Story

You've chosen 24, rather than 25. You only have 3 TE's.

I think we have 25 on offense. No Tebow. Sudfeld over Fells and Hooman as the back up te's. Jones as the 4th wr in your set-up. I think Bolden and Blount both make it. We're gonna be running more. Svitek and McDonald as the 7th and 8th OL.

 

[jmt57]

Thinking about the receivers, I wonder if there will be some delineation based on size, to fill in a specific role or style of play.

I'll be very curious to see how much of a shift there may be away from the so-called smurf receiving corps that the Pats have had in the past when the final roster cuts are announced.


6'4", 215 - Michael Jenkins
6'3", 230 - Mark Harrison
6'3", 200 - Aaron Dobson
6'2", 215 - Kamar Aiken

6'0", 210 - Matthew Slater
6'0", 205 - Donald Jones
5'11", 205 - Josh Boyce

6'0", 195 - Kenbrell Thompkins
5'11", 195 - Danny Amendola
5'11", 195 - Lavelle Hawkins
5'10", 198 - Julian Edelman

 

[blackglass3]

I don't see Tebow getting cut. Maybe they start listing him as OW like Dennard Robinson in Jacksonville. But he'll be here.

Has anyone seen or heard anything about Donald Jones? I have hopes for him. I don't know if they're high hopes, but hopes nonetheless. I'm thinking Amendola, Dobson, Jones, Edelman, and Boyce. I have absolutely nothing to base that on.

 

[Sciz]

Considering that the Patriots have cut people like Bodden or Love that most would have considered, at the time of their being cut, likely to be with the team for a while I'm not sure I consider Ballard a lock at all.

Bodden had what ended up being a career-ending back injury. Put that (along with Love's diabetes and Hernandez's murder charges) in the "unforeseen circumstance" category.

 

[Mack Herron]

Bodden had what ended up being a career-ending back injury. Put that (along with Love's diabetes and Hernandez's murder charges) in the "unforeseen circumstance" category.

Injuries are a big part of the equation of course, and when last seen Ballard was still limping. It might be more interesting to predict the so-called lock who doesn't make it.

 

[Sciz]

Injuries are a big part of the equation of course, and when last seen Ballard was still limping. It might be more interesting to predict the so-called lock who doesn't make it.

Well, if Cannon wins the starting RG spot and if the younger interior linemen perform well enough to be trusted as backups, cutting Connolly would save $1M this season and then $4M next season. Outside of Boyce (who would be the popular choice but I think would end up on IR before being cut), my pick is Connolly.