18 Almost Locks On Defense

[mgteich]

Barring injuries, I see these players as locks or as almost locks.

DEFENSE (18)
DE (2) Jones, Ninkovich
DT (2) Wilfork, Kelly
LB (5) Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Spikes, Fletcher
CB (5) Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Dowling, Ryan
S (4) McCourty, Wilson, Wilson, Harmon

Obviously, there is great opportunities/competition for remaining DL roster spots. This is much less so for other defensive roster spots.

It seems curious that the secondary is all but set. We could keep 9 or we could add Gregory and/or Ebner. The LB's, CB's and S's listed are likely to get 95% of the reps. The only other player who could get significant reps is Gregory.

Clearly there is room at the bottom for special teamers and developmental players.

 

[patsfaninpa]

No prob with those 18. The rest of my defense would be; Gregory, Armstead, Fortson, Cunningham and Bequette. Buchanan or Francis as 9th DL, not sure about 6 lb. Tarp maybe.

 

[mgteich]

I've fine with your 24 man plan. I suspect that the last spot is a special teamer. Tarp is a good choice, as is Ebner or Cole. Traditionally, we have kept the 6th LB, as you have suggested.

No prob with those 18. The rest of my defense would be; Gregory, Armstead, Fortson, Cunningham and Bequette. Buchanan or Francis as 9th DL, not sure about 6 lb. Tarp maybe.

 

[DarrylS]

At first glance it is impressive, lets see what is going on in November..

But reason for a lot of optimism..

 

[supafly]

Hard to see Gregory not making the roster in my opinion.

Hopefully we won't have to see him starting like last season, but he's fine in a pinch and can offer capable backup play for sure.

On top of that I think it makes a lot more sense to keep him one more year salary-wise IIRC. I don't think they'd be able to improve too much on the specific player if at all, for the money. I could be wrong, but I thought that Gregory's status made a lot of sense to keep him through 2013.

 

[mgteich]

I like Gregory and want to keep him.

However consider the situation if McCourty and A. Smith are starting. Gregory might be #3 or #4. Since he plays no special teams, some don't want to give him a roster spot. They'd give it to Ebner instead, not because he is a better safety, but because he is a special teamer.

Hard to see Gregory not making the roster in my opinion.

Hopefully we won't have to see him starting like last season, but he's fine in a pinch and can offer capable backup play for sure.

On top of that I think it makes a lot more sense to keep him one more year salary-wise IIRC. I don't think they'd be able to improve too much on the specific player if at all, for the money. I could be wrong, but I thought that Gregory's status made a lot of sense to keep him through 2013.

 

[Joker]

I see Gregory as a cut...unless there is some unknown injury history from last season I don't know about it, I'd rather they went in a different direction...as in I think he's done, skillswise.

 

[supafly]

I like Gregory and want to keep him.

However consider the situation if McCourty and A. Smith are starting. Gregory might be #3 or #4. Since he plays no special teams, some don't want to give him a roster spot. They'd give it to Ebner instead, not because he is a better safety, but because he is a special teamer.

I see Gregory as a cut...unless there is some unknown injury history from last season I don't know about it, I'd rather they went in a different direction...as in I think he's done, skillswise.

What are the financial implications of keeping/cutting Gregory in the next couple of months?

From what I understood, we aren't going to find a better backup safety for the money, and it makes much more sense to cut him after the season in terms of cost efficiency.

I don't see how we'd get that much of an upgrade on our #3 or #4 safety, especially when he was actually starting last season.

To be honest, I'd have preferred that they went in another direction earlier in the offseason by bringing in a better backup, higher draft pick, or even a long term starter for higher money, but that's all behind us now. At this point, I'm thinking that it may make more sense to keep him. He knows the system, does have some backup skills (not as a starter though, that was a bad idea), and we're not likely to improve upon the position with any savings IMO.

 

[Joker]

you know more about it than I do, Supa...I just despise soft players who miss tackles three yards behind the LOS that turn into TD's....pizzes me off...you get both arms on a runner and he runs through you???...get off the dyamed field then, you're DONE.

 

[supafly]

Since he plays no special teams, some don't want to give him a roster spot. They'd give it to Ebner instead, not because he is a better safety, but because he is a special teamer.

One could look at this both ways though. When push came to shove and we were hosting the game to go to the SB, the guy who was kept over a better 'real' position player did not play very well despite being a better special teamer (Cole).

Special Teams play has a big role here, but there also must be good depth for the actual positions too in case of injury. I certainly don't want to see Nate Ebner getting stuck playing safety in live rep situations too much, at least not this year anyway. If Belichick feels that he may be able to progress into a real potential safety in 2014 and beyond, that may certainly factor into the equation too.

One of the first things I look at during the draft is what new rookie picks can potentially take over any roles on special teams. For all of the Coles and Koutivedes' out there, we also have new guys that have been drafted to play actual positions that can possibly fill those needs.

 

[supafly]

you know more about it than I do, Supa...

Very debatable, Joker.

Very debatable....


I hear what you're saying regarding Gregory's skills for sure.

 

[Claremonster]

Gregory might be smart, but, he sucks as a player.

 

[supafly]

Gregory might be smart, but, he sucks as a player.

It wasn't pretty last year having to rely on him as a starter.

That said, he's probably just fine as a #4 safety who can take rotational reps or even start a game or two in a pinch. I don't think he's necessarily "good," but he's probably not much worse than most other #4 safeties. Luckily we now have McCourty, A.Wilson, and T.Wilson ahead of him if he stays.

I think the aspect you need to look at is how much they'll expect Harmon to play this season. If he can take over the #4 or even #3 role, then it may make Gregory much more expendable. We likely won't know until TC/preseason.

 

[Tunescribe]

Harmon? A lock? Because he appears to be a BB binky?

Gregory might be smart, but, he sucks as a player.

No, he doesn't "suck." He's average.

 

[Sciz]

The Patriots would save $1.25M by releasing Gregory before this coming season. At least in my opinion, he seems like a no-brainer cut next offseason, when it'd save them $2.25M. He'll count $833k against the cap each of the next two seasons in prorated bonus either way. So in the grand scheme of things, replacing Gregory with Ebner (or a similar low-salary player) would save the team right around $750k this season.

So basically, I think he'd have to be cut for on-field reasons if it happens this season, but very well could be for monetary reasons next offseason. In my ideal world, he's the #4 safety after McCourty, Wilson, and Wilson, so they cut him in favor of the younger, cheaper, and better ST guys in Harmon and Ebner.

 

[Deus Irae]

Using Miguel's numbers, cutting Gregory would save only $795,000 this year, and would result in cap hits of $833,333 and $833,334 this year and next. He may be safer than A. Wilson, if the money is any reflection.

I currently expect Gregory to make the team this season and to be cut at some point after the season is over.

 

[mgteich]

IMHO, Gregory is as good a #3 safety as there is out there, and he is better than Tavon Wilson. So, I agree that Gregory wouldn't lose his roster spot to someone to be added in free agency. Perhaps, we would only carry four safeties. Perhaps, we would keep Ebner.

The team might expect Tavon Wilson to be our #3 S. We really only need three safeties, 2 starters and a backup. We also keep 1-2 additional safeties as developmental players or special teams players. Harmon or Ebner should be good enough to be the emergency/#4 safety. Clearly, our #4 or #5 corner can also serve as the #4 safety.

So, that is the argument against Gregory.

For me, Gregory is not a POTENTIAL contributor. Rather, he is able to START if the need comes up (an injury or T Wilson not playing well). IMHO, we need this kind of depth instead of Ebner who really can't play safety. It seems reasonable to expect that one of this year's rookies can replace Ebner on special teams.

For me, keeping Gregory means having FOUR solid choices at corner and safety, plus two untested rookies. And, most of the secondary plays solid special teams. That is a great position to be in.

From what I understood, we aren't going to find a better backup safety for the money, and it makes much more sense to cut him after the season in terms of cost efficiency.

 

[supafly]

Harmon? A lock? Because he appears to be a BB binky?

No sir, because he's a higher round draft pick.

 

[Deus Irae]

IMHO, Gregory is as good a #3 safety as there is out there, and he is better than Tavon Wilson. So, I agree that Gregory wouldn't lose his roster spot to someone to be added in free agency. Perhaps, we would only carry four safeties. Perhaps, we would keep Ebner.

Gregory is the reason that A. Wilson didn't make sense, and a top-level prospect (Elam, Cyprien, Swearinger) did. His deal is tailor made for a post-2013 release, which would have perfectly fit a rookie safety being eased into the starting role over the course of a season and setting up a theoretical 3-man crew of McCourty/T. Wilson/Rookie.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that Gregory will be gone after this season if one of Tavon Wilson and Harmon are good enough to be our #3 S. That remains to be seen.

At least in my opinion, he seems like a no-brainer cut next offseason, when it'd save them $2.25M.