For the purpose of discussion, I will assume the worst in that Hernandez will not be with the team this year. So let's take a look at the receiving options currently available:
Wide Receiver:
- Kamar Aiken
- Danny Amendola
- Josh Boyce
- Aaron Dobson
- Julian Edelman
- Mark Harrison
- Lavelle Hawkins
- Michael Jenkins
- Donald Jones
- Matthew Slater
- Kenbrell Thompkins
Amendola will assume the role of #1 WR on the team, replacing Welker from last year. There is no denying what Welker meant to this team, but I feel if Amendola can avoid the unlucky breaks (Collorbone/Elbow, I don't consider him injury prone) I feel he can have respectable production. Ideally, one of Dobson or Boyce will flash in Training Camp and earn the starting "X" position and #2 WR spot, but if they develop slowly, it will go to Jenkins. Jenkins is a former 1st round pick who is very much a JAG, but while he isn't fast he is very savvy in his routes and has smooth hands. He can mentor the rookies, and who knows: his career high in yards were just over 700. He is a big body and has never played with a QB like Brady. If he can gain 700-800 yards at least as the #2 WR, I'll take it. Lloyd wasn't much more than that. In 2011, Branch only had just under 600 yards, if I recall. Slater will make it because of his ST ability.
The locks at WR are, so far, Amendola, Jenkins, Dobson, Boyce, and Slater. If the rookies flash, maybe only 5 WR are kept, but I think 6 is the magic number this year. I feel one of Edelman, Hawkins, or even an UDFA like Thompkins could make it as the #4/5 WR. All in all, the potential impact of this group will come down to how well the rookies can develop and build a rapport with Brady.
Tight End:
- Jake Ballard
- Daniel Fells
- Brandon Ford
- Rob Gronkowski
- Aaron Hernandez
- Michael Hoomanawanui
- Zach Sudfeld
The entire offense will look 500% better once Gronkowski is healthy and back on the field. Don't doubt his ability to recover. He's a young kid, and a dominant player. For his safety and for the Patriots' best interests, he should be on PUP and return sometime after Week 6 in the season. He will have plenty of time to rehab and to condition himself during this time.
As for Hernandez, as I said, let us assume he is out of football this season for one reason or another.
The remaining Tight Ends are as follows:
- Jake Ballard
- Daniel Fells
- Brandon Ford
- Michael Hoomanawanui
- Zach Sudeld
In this scenario, the team would likely want Ballard to be healthy enough to "replace" Gronkowski's position in the lineup. As for Hernandez, one of Fells, Hooman or Sudfeld could be used. While he didn't show much last year, Fells is a good pass catcher and a decent blocker. Hooman is more of an H-Back and in my opinion most similar to Hernandez, but I question where his ceiling is in this offense. Sudfeld has reportedly been sensational in OTAs. Awesome to hear, but let's see it in pads. He is injury prone, but I have watched some highlights and games of his and he certainly has potential to be good in the NFL. He bears watching.
All in all, while the Patriots look bleak to start, they should finish strong as Gronkowski returns, and hopefully the rookies grow comfortable in the offense. Tom Brady is getting older and shouldn't have to win games by throwing the ball 35 times a game, so a more run-oriented offense could be expected (and maybe welcomed, Ridley-Vereen is a dynamic pairing). The defense also looks to be (on paper) the best it's been in years.
Great points but a few things....
- Tom Brady is getting older, but he is still the class of the elite, the best of the best and if anybody could do it it is him.. but thank God we have a 1,200 yard rusher and rising star in Stevan Ridley, versatile jack of all trades running receiving back Shane Vereen and two power guys Brandon Bolden and LeGarrett Blount who could be lethal on the ground.
- I feel that Danny Amendola can have production waayy beyond respectable. Lets remember, he is younger, faster, quicker then Wes and runs super crisp routes. The guy shined with Sam Bradford as his QB, so what do you think could happen with Tom? A reason why teams like KC were bidding for him once FA started.. and I actually didn't think we would get him.
And he gives you that deep threat ability that Wes Welker simply didn't offer.
- Aaron Dobson has the physical tools, talents and gifts as well as intellectually to be a star for the Patriots. He also has the knowledge and wisdom around him. Even medium range productivity from him would help and he is more than likely going to give us more then that. These young kids come into the league and take it by storm because they are soo hungry and talented.. dangerous combination. And he was the last one to get signed, which to me would be physcological motivation to play extra extra hard.
- I like Josh Boyce, because he is physical, and stout but can also run, with a lot of speed and quickness and has good YAC ability after the catch. He is kind of like one of those 2003-2004 NE receivers where you can move around all over the field because he is so versatile and can run any route.
- Michael Jenkins, you hit it dead on and who knows what Donald Jones could bring in this system with this QB. Tom can make anybody look good, even great.
- Here is where I disagree with you... I think that Julian Edelman is a lock simply because of his versatility, value and what he means to the team both as a patriot on and off the field. He plays extremely hard, every down and is one of the most exciting players in the NFL to watch with the ball in his hands. His elusiveness, quickness, explosiveness and speed at the slot position and anywhere on offense has paid off for us before.. especially right before the injury last year. He was on an amazing hot streak in every aspect. And did a very good job for Wes Welker back in 2009 when he got hurt .. as a rookie and to me, has superstar potential written all over him.
I actually like the combination of him and Danny Amendola.. could be lethal if both stay healthy.
and lets face it...
YOUNGER IS BETTER these days in many ways for offenses
As for the tightends,
- Jake Ballard doubters, watch tape of the NYGiants last superbowl winning season then get back at me.
- Michael Hoomanawananui may not be a star but he is a good blocker, and is very versatile. I've also seen him catch two critical long balls from Tom before so don't underestimate the guy..
- Zach Sudfield - big kid with size and hands.. could see a lot of playing time.
Like I said with the defense improving roster wise this year, the offense will be just fine as long as we have Tom, Bill, Josh, and now welcome back Brian Daboll.. not to mention those very talented running backs and their many different styles they bring to the no huddle offense.
