Brady Quinn / Aaron Rodgers Draft Stock

[everlong]

One of the popular themes in the national media right now is Brady Quinn's draft stock taking a hit like Rodgers did. The one problem with that is nobody saw Rodgers falling out of the top ten and then top twenty until it happened. Most of the talking heads still had him going top 5 on draft day.

I don't really think Russell or Quinn warrants a top ten pick but that's another matter.

If Quinn falls by Miami at 9 he could fall all the way to the Pats at #24 (maybe Carolina @14 or KC @23) which would bring a team like the Browns into the picture. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing the Pats trade down to the Browns at #36 and picking up the Browns first in next years draft. There may be another pick going to the Browns to make this happen since they are so high in the second round but it could be another team. The Browns would be really nice though because the chances are really high that you're drafting in the top half in 08.

The downside to the Browns making a move like this are the rumors that Rac and Savage have to win now to save their jobs. If that's true they may feel the pressure to pass on the QB and draft a player to help them win now.

Either way here's to this Brady dropping in the draft to a place where we can get some value.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Quinn has only his our defense for his draft status. The Notre Dame Defense made Russell look like SUperman in the Bowl game. I've watched him week in and week out playing in the SEC and he is good, but he is certainely not the #1 player in the draft.

Quinn will be a solid NFL QB, you must remember that Notre Dame is seriously lacking in talent when you compare them with other division 1A schools. Think about it, when was the last time a player from Notre Dame was even drafted in the first round or even second round for that matter? He doesn't play behind top flight lineman, he doesn't have a first round RB, and granted that Samarja (SP?) would have been a least a second round pick this year, but the rest of his recievers, he certainly doesn't have the 2 WRs that Russell has.

I don't think that Quinn is going to be a superstar, but if he landed on a team in a Rothesburger kinda way, that already has alot of talent, but lacks a QB to manage the game for them, (i.e. Miami) I think he could be very sucessfull.

Let's hope that someone drafts him before he drops to the Phins, we need at last one more year of Culpepper/Harrington!!!!!

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

One of the popular themes in the national media right now is Brady Quinn's draft stock taking a hit like Rodgers did. The one problem with that is nobody saw Rodgers falling out of the top ten and then top twenty until it happened. Most of the talking heads still had him going top 5 on draft day.

I don't really think Russell or Quinn warrants a top ten pick but that's another matter.

If Quinn falls by Miami at 9 he could fall all the way to the Pats at #24 (maybe Carolina @14 or KC @23) which would bring a team like the Browns into the picture. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing the Pats trade down to the Browns at #36 and picking up the Browns first in next years draft. There may be another pick going to the Browns to make this happen since they are so high in the second round but it could be another team. The Browns would be really nice though because the chances are really high that you're drafting in the top half in 08.

The downside to the Browns making a move like this are the rumors that Rac and Savage have to win now to save their jobs. If that's true they may feel the pressure to pass on the QB and draft a player to help them win now.

Either way here's to this Brady dropping in the draft to a place where we can get some value.

I can't see him dropping to #24, he could go as high as #2 to Detriot, the other teams that need a QB

3 Cleveland (plus the RAC/Weiss connection)
4 Tampa Bay (unless your sold on the sonofsimms)
7 Minnesota (did you watch the Pats/Vikes game last year)
8 Houston (had enough of Carr)
9 Miami (Daunte?)
17 Jacksonville (money says the trade Leftwich this off-season, Garrad is not a franchise QB)
23 Kansas City

now if somehow he made it past all those teams, imagine what BB and SP could get out of Baltimore or Chicago to trade up to #24 to get him.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Come to think of it, If I'm "DaBears", I call Washington if Quinn drops to #6. Washington has no picks from #6 until the 5th round.

So here is my trade: Washington trades the #6 overall pick to the Bears (which they will use to draft Quinn) for Chicago's:

#32
#64
#95
2008 1st round selection

It is a good trade for both teams, the Bears are loaded and only need a QB who won't acutally throw the game away. Notre Dame is very close to Chicago so it will be very popular pick with the locals.

As for Washigton they re-coop two of the picks they have already traded away and get an extra 1st rounder next year.

Trade Vaule Chart analysis:

#6=1600

#32=600
#64=276
#95=120
2008 1st round selection=600 (assuming the Bears make the playoffs again, which is very likely)

Total=1696

 

[everlong]

The Notre Dame Defense made Russell look like SUperman in the Bowl game. I've watched him week in and week out playing in the SEC and he is good, but he is certainely not the #1 player in the draft.

I agree. Russell looked awful against Auburn and Florida.

 

[everlong]

I can't see him dropping to #24, he could go as high as #2 to Detriot, the other teams that need a QB

He very well could go that high but players drop out of the top ten down into the twenties all the time. I would be surprised to see him drop to #24 but not shocked. I just hope he does.

 

[everlong]

Come to think of it, If I'm "DaBears", I call Washington if Quinn drops to #6. Washington has no picks from #6 until the 5th round.

So here is my trade: Washington trades the #6 overall pick to the Bears (which they will use to draft Quinn) for Chicago's:

#32
#64
#95
2008 1st round selection

It is a good trade for both teams, the Bears are loaded and only need a QB who won't acutally throw the game away. Notre Dame is very close to Chicago so it will be very popular pick with the locals.

As for Washigton they re-coop two of the picks they have already traded away and get an extra 1st rounder next year.

Trade Vaule Chart analysis:

#6=1600

#32=600
#64=276
#95=120
2008 1st round selection=600 (assuming the Bears make the playoffs again, which is very likely)

Total=1696

That will never happen. Teams value the picks way too much to give up 4 of them for one player. This isn't John Elway coming out.

 

[PonyExpress]

The columnists are trying to add some intrigue and pizzazz to a draft lacking the drama of last year's VY, Bush sweepstakes. Quinn has no chance of falling out of the top 10. As for Russell...Russell had a couple lackluster games against top competition, but also showed poise under pressure leading late game comebacks, and lit up Arkansas and ND to close out the year. He completed an amazing 68% of his passes and threw only 8 INTs. Reminds me of Roethlisberger. I don't have any questions about Russell's talent. The only questions are his work ethic and maturity, for example... why is he such a fat @$$ and how will he handle being a #1 pick on a bad team with alot of money in the bank? He is a boom or bust guy as a result and unless I had a very good feel for Jamarcus' maturity and work ethic, as a GM I would take Quinn over him, because with Quinn those issues are beyond question. I wrote this in some other thread, but at risk of beating a dead horse, I expect Quinn's downside to be Matt Hasselbeck. That means he's a franchise Qb, who can lead his team to consistent playoff appearances. Will he win SBs? Probably not... BTW: I liked Rodgers coming out and despite his embarrassing broken foot performance in relief vs. the Pats, I still like him. Does anybody remember how awful and unprepared Pennington looked replacing Vinny Testaverde in the Pats 44-7 thrashing of the Jets in 2002? But when Chad was able to practice and get reps with the 1st team consistently he emerged as a quality starting QB and led the Jets to the '02 div. title. So I haven't sold my Rodgers stock yet.

 

[everlong]

I expect Quinn's downside to be Matt Hasselbeck. That means he's a franchise Qb, who can lead his team to consistent playoff appearances. Will he win SBs? Probably not...

Hasselbeck is the player I've been comparing Quinn to as well. I wouldn't say that's Quinn's downside though. I'd say it's about the level I expect.

Russell is riding the ND game and VY's success. I think Russell's upside is Culpepper. An inconsistent player who will show flashes but will never be the franchise QB.

I agree that the Quinn falling is a media production to a large degree and I don't really think he'll drop out of the top ten either but sometimes these things take on a life of their own. If he had a bad combine you never know.

 

[Seymour93]

Quinn is not Rodgers. He is a much more polished QB and ready to make an impact on the NFL. Quinn was basically playing in an NFL offense for the past two seasons, while Rodgers came through a QB friendly system under Jeff Tedford. Carolina are rumored to really like Quinn, so he's not falling past #14.

 

[PonyExpress]

Hasselbeck is the player I've been comparing Quinn to as well. I wouldn't say that's Quinn's downside though. I'd say it's about the level I expect.

Russell is riding the ND game and VY's success. I think Russell's upside is Culpepper. An inconsistent player who will show flashes but will never be the franchise QB.

I agree that the Quinn falling is a media production to a large degree and I don't really think he'll drop out of the top ten either but sometimes these things take on a life of their own. If he had a bad combine you never know.

Yeah, your assessment is probably more accurate than mine. Here are some reasons why Quinn can be better than Hasselbeck, and two big reasons he could end up worse.

Better than Hasselbeck: Quinn's greatest strength may be his uncanny knack for avoiding ints, despite a large number of attempts. That self-discipline was no doubt fostered by Weis and translates very well to the pro game. Second, he can take a hit, something Hasselbeck has had trouble with. Third, As Qb of ND, he has faced scrutiny and pressure in college equal to that of most pro QBs, and is ready to face the intense media spotlight that prompts some incoming prospects to become red light dumb@$$e$. Fourth, Weis has already taught him to identify defenses, audible to correct plays at the LOS, and read progressions, something it can take several years for most young Qbs to comprehend. So Quinn can impact and mature very quickly in the NFL. So his durability, ability to avoid INTs, readiness to play, and overall maturity give him an execllent chance to surpass Hasselbeck's level of Qb play.

Worse than Hasselbeck: Two negatives are stalking him however: (1) Hasselbeck was lucky enough to be tutored in the NFL under Holmgren, maybe the best QB coach ever (Montana, Young, Favre, Brunell). Quinn may end up on a wretched outfit like the Browns. (2) Quinn lacks poise under pressure. He shares that almost fatal Qb flaw with a player like Harrington, and on a bad day can resemble Joey on 'roids. Unlike Joey, Quinn can compensate for that weakness with some leadership and charisma, and also the ability to avoid killer INTS, something Harrington never had a knack for. So, Hasselbeck seems like a reasonable threshhold for Quinn's performance. Upside? Maybe a Jim Kelly/Phil Simms type. Downside: Somwhere in Qb purgatory between Hasselbeck and Harrington.

 

[everlong]

Yeah, your assessment is probably more accurate than mine. Here are some reasons why Quinn can be better than Hasselbeck, and two big reasons he could end up worse.

Better than Hasselbeck: Quinn's greatest strength may be his uncanny knack for avoiding ints, despite a large number of attempts. That self-discipline was no doubt fostered by Weis and translates very well to the pro game. Second, he can take a hit, something Hasselbeck has had trouble with. Third, As Qb of ND, he has faced scrutiny and pressure in college commensurate with that of most pro QBs, and is ready to face the intense media spotlight that prompts some incoming prospects to become red light dumb@$$e$. Fourth, Weis has already taught him to identify defenses, audible to correct plays at the LOS, and read progressions, something it can take several years for most young Qbs to comprehend. So Quinn can impact and mature very quickly in the NFL. So his durability, ability to avoid INTs, readiness to play, and overall maturity give him an execllent chance to surpass Hasselbeck's level of Qb play.

Worse than Hasselbeck: Two negatives are stalking him however: (1) Hasselbeck was lucky enough to be tutored in the NFL under Holmgren, maybe the best QB coach ever (Montana, Young, Favre, Brunell). Quinn may end up on a wretched outfit like the Browns. (2) Quinn lacks poise under pressure. He shares that almost fatal Qb flaw with a player like Harrington, and on a bad day can resemble Joey on 'roids. Unlike Joey, Quinn can compensate for that weakness with some leadership and charisma, and also the ability to avoid killer INTS, something Harrington never had a knack for. So, Hasselbeck seems like a reasonable threshhold for Quinn's performance. Upside? Maybe a Jim Kelly/Phil Simms type. Downside: Somwhere in Qb purgatory between Hasselbeck and Harrington.

Pretty accurate.

BTW the media will give his downside as Rick Mirer based on them both being from ND and going high in the draft but after that the comparisons end. The low side would be, Gulp, Tony Eason.

Eason and Quinn have much better physical skills than Mirer.

 

[patchick]

Quinn is not Rodgers. He is a much more polished QB and ready to make an impact on the NFL. Quinn was basically playing in an NFL offense for the past two seasons, while Rodgers came through a QB friendly system under Jeff Tedford.

I see it the same way -- and unlike Rodgers, Quinn has prototypical QB size.

If you're Minnesota picking 7th, who else is going to make a bigger impact for your team? A lot of mocks have them passing over Quinn for Dwayne Jarrett, which strikes me as nuts. This draft is very deep at WR, there will be excellent prospects waiting in rounds 2 and 3.

And right after the Vikings come the QB-less Texans. I'd be very surprised if Quinn lasts as far as Miami at #9.

 

[Real World]

That will never happen. Teams value the picks way too much to give up 4 of them for one player. This isn't John Elway coming out.

Plus it's way too far a drop with this years picks. You're talking a special talent at #6, versus a relative wild card at #36.

 

[Real World]

Quinn is not Rodgers. He is a much more polished QB and ready to make an impact on the NFL. Quinn was basically playing in an NFL offense for the past two seasons, while Rodgers came through a QB friendly system under Jeff Tedford. Carolina are rumored to really like Quinn, so he's not falling past #14.

Seymour, I agree. Quinn played a pro style, and he's played against some of the top teams in the country the last couple of years. I think the teams that pass on him will one day regret doing so. I think he's a good pro QB. Pro-bowl caliber someday? Maybe, maybe not, but I'd take 10-15 years of a Hasslebeck, Trent Green, Mark Bulger type player.

 

[Real World]

I see it the same way -- and unlike Rodgers, Quinn has prototypical QB size.

If you're Minnesota picking 7th, who else is going to make a bigger impact for your team? A lot of mocks have them passing over Quinn for Dwayne Jarrett, which strikes me as nuts. This draft is very deep at WR, there will be excellent prospects waiting in rounds 2 and 3.

And right after the Vikings come the QB-less Texans. I'd be very surprised if Quinn lasts as far as Miami at #9.

How Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland,Tampa Minnesotta, and Miami don't draft a 2 QB's between them is beyond me. I think this draft is prime for some trade downs by the top couple of teams. Think about it. If you're Arizona/Washington, you can probably get to #1, 2, or #3 pretty easily, since the top 3 would most likely get their QB at #5 or 6. If you're one of the others, you could add picks in the process.