Patriots vs Opponents - 3rd & Long Comparison

[Ian]

Was going through some #'s this morning in our stats database looking at the Patriots defense and how they were in 3rd and long situations last year, as I though there were more long plays they gave up to extend drives. It wasn't as bad as I thought, with only 3rd & 8 being an area where they allowed a 75% conversion rate. But here is the full breakdown:

PATRIOTS:
3rd and More than 10: 36 plays - Converted First Downs: 8 (22%)
3rd and 10: 16 plays - Converted First Downs: 9 (56%)
3rd and 9: 13 plays - Converted First Downs: 4 (31%)
3rd and 8: 16 plays - Converted First Downs: 5 (31%)
3rd and 7: 21 plays - Converted First Downs: 6 (29%)
3rd and 6: 20 plays - Converted First Downs: 12 (60%)
3rd and 5: 15 plays - Converted First Downs: 8 (53%)
3rd and 4: 18 plays - Converted First Downs: 13 (72%)
3rd and 3: 15 plays - Converted First Downs: 7 (47%)
3rd and 2: 26 plays - Converted First Downs: 14 (54%)
3rd and 1: 30 plays - Converted First Downs: 24 (80%)

OPPONENTS:
3rd and More than 10: 38 plays - Converted First Downs: 7 (18%)
3rd and 10: 21 plays - Converted First Downs: 8 (38%)
3rd and 9: 6 plays - Converted First Downs: 2 (33%)
3rd and 8: 8 plays - Converted First Downs: 6 (75%)
3rd and 7: 17 plays - Converted First Downs: 8 (47%)
3rd and 6: 19 plays - Converted First Downs: 6 (32%)
3rd and 5: 16 plays - Converted First Downs: 4 (25%)
3rd and 4: 18 plays - Converted First Downs: 3 (16%)
3rd and 3: 19 plays - Converted First Downs: 11 (58%)
3rd and 2: 20 plays - Converted First Downs: 11 (55%)
3rd and 1: 23 plays - Converted First Downs: 16 (69%)

 

[Brady2Moss]

Interesting 3rd and 8/7 were a pretty big problem, hopefully that number jumps down next year.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I take from this careful analysis that the pass defense wasn't that bad.

Since that contradicts our eyesight, it would mean to me two things:

A) That when the pass defense got better with the arrival of Taquib and the shift to Safety by McCourty, the pass defense got to be pretty good, in order to raise the overall score to somewhat respectable.

B) Our perceptions from the year before, plus the injury savaged second half of the AFCCG, wrongly influenced our opinions about how bad the pass defense really was last season.

Take your choice.

 

[lurker1965]

I take from this careful analysis that the pass defense wasn't that bad.

Since that contradicts our eyesight, it would mean to me two things:

A) That when the pass defense got better with the arrival of Taquib and the shift to Safety by McCourty, the pass defense got to be pretty good, in order to raise the overall score to somewhat respectable.

B) Our perceptions from the year before, plus the injury savaged second half of the AFCCG, wrongly influenced our opinions about how bad the pass defense really was last season.

Take your choice.

I'll take C) Opposing offenses were inept.

Oh, I'm sure A), and may be B), played a role. Still for the majority role I'm going to stick with C)

No, I'm not a "contrarian" just a run of the mill "Richard."

 

[NgataTroublemaker]

You guys should jump offside on any 3rd and 8 or 3rd and 9 and reduce the opponent's chance of converting by 17%.

Your stat database here is very cool. I wish Ravens boards had something similar.

 

[mb6592]

Was going through some #'s this morning in our stats database looking at the Patriots defense and how they were in 3rd and long situations last year, as I though there were more long plays they gave up to extend drives. It wasn't as bad as I thought, with only 3rd & 8 being an area where they allowed a 75% conversion rate. But here is the full breakdown:

PATRIOTS:
3rd and More than 10: 36 plays - Converted First Downs: 8 (22%)
3rd and 10: 16 plays - Converted First Downs: 9 (56%)
3rd and 9: 13 plays - Converted First Downs: 4 (31%)
3rd and 8: 16 plays - Converted First Downs: 5 (31%)
3rd and 7: 21 plays - Converted First Downs: 6 (29%)
3rd and 6: 20 plays - Converted First Downs: 12 (60%)
3rd and 5: 15 plays - Converted First Downs: 8 (53%)
3rd and 4: 18 plays - Converted First Downs: 13 (72%)
3rd and 3: 15 plays - Converted First Downs: 7 (47%)
3rd and 2: 26 plays - Converted First Downs: 14 (54%)
3rd and 1: 30 plays - Converted First Downs: 24 (80%)

OPPONENTS:
3rd and More than 10: 38 plays - Converted First Downs: 7 (18%)
3rd and 10: 21 plays - Converted First Downs: 8 (38%)
3rd and 9: 6 plays - Converted First Downs: 2 (33%)
3rd and 8: 8 plays - Converted First Downs: 6 (75%)
3rd and 7: 17 plays - Converted First Downs: 8 (47%)
3rd and 6: 19 plays - Converted First Downs: 6 (32%)
3rd and 5: 16 plays - Converted First Downs: 4 (25%)
3rd and 4: 18 plays - Converted First Downs: 3 (16%)
3rd and 3: 19 plays - Converted First Downs: 11 (58%)
3rd and 2: 20 plays - Converted First Downs: 11 (55%)
3rd and 1: 23 plays - Converted First Downs: 16 (69%)

Actually it is pretty bad. What kills me are those plays that are momentum killers. On offense it would be failing to pick up a 1st down on 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2 and on defense it is when the defense sets itself up to get off the field on 4th down and fails to do so. I don't think an offense completing a 3rd and 5 is a black eye for a defense. I do think an offense picking up anything over a 3rd and 7 is a momentum killing play (i.e. if the defense sets itself up to defend 3rd and 8 or greater - it should get off the field). With that said the Patriots Offense had 81 such chances and converted 26 times or 32%. The, arguably, #1 offense in the league Patriots Offense converted 32% of such chances. I would hope - expect - the Patriots (with their #1 offense) to have a decided advantage in this area. But, alas, the Patriots Defense allowed 23 completions in 73 chances for a percentage of 32%. What should be a slam dunk advantage is not (and if you add 3 and 7 to the mix the percentages swing to advantage opponents offense vs Patriots defense 34% to 31%). That's a huge problem and why many of us have had major issues with the defense over the past, it seems like at least, 10 years now.

And before the experts weigh-in, I get it, I get it - Patriots D is predicated on bend but don't break, yards/TOP don't matter, we are a top defense because we don't give up a lot of points (of course Brady and the offense have nothing to do with this), and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah

 

[Brady2Moss]

Actually it is pretty bad. What kills me are those plays that are momentum killers. On offense it would be failing to pick up a 1st down on 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2 and on defense it is when the defense sets itself up to get off the field on 4th down and fails to do so. I don't think an offense completing a 3rd and 5 is a black eye for a defense. I do think an offense picking up anything over a 3rd and 7 is a momentum killing play (i.e. if the defense sets itself up to defend 3rd and 8 or greater - it should get off the field). With that said the Patriots Offense had 81 such chances and converted 26 times or 32%. The, arguably, #1 offense in the league Patriots Offense converted 32% of such chances. I would hope - expect - the Patriots (with their #1 offense) to have a decided advantage in this area. But, alas, the Patriots Defense allowed 23 completions in 73 chances for a percentage of 32%. What should be a slam dunk advantage is not (and if you add 3 and 7 to the mix the percentages swing to advantage opponents offense vs Patriots defense 34% to 31%). That's a huge problem and why many of us have had major issues with the defense over the past, it seems like at least, 10 years now.

And before the experts weigh-in, I get it, I get it - Patriots D is predicated on bend but don't break, yards/TOP don't matter, we are a top defense because we don't give up a lot of points (of course Brady and the offense have nothing to do with this), and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah

I agree with the basic argument here, but the defense hasn't been bad for 10 years. Maybe 6-7 at most. But it has been downright awful and if there isn't a big jump from Jones and Hightower it'll suck again the second Talib pulls a hammy.

 

[mb6592]

I agree with the basic argument here, but the defense hasn't been bad for 10 years. Maybe 6-7 at most. But it has been downright awful and if there isn't a big jump from Jones and Hightower it'll suck again the second Talib pulls a hammy.

I said it seems like 10 years, actually, in truth, it seems more like 20 years since Bruschi, Law, McGinest, Vrabel, Harrison, Seymour, et al. gave you confidence that the defense was up to most challenges.

 

[Brady2Moss]

I said it seems like 10 years, actually, in truth, it seems more like 20 years since Bruschi, Law, McGinest, Vrabel, Harrison, Seymour, et al. gave you confidence that the defense was up to most challenges.

Amen to that

 

[captain stone]

If we could see those 3rd downs represented as league-wide %s (minus Pats offense),
then compared them to the Pats' defense %s, I think we would maybe have a clearer
perspective regarding our ability to get off the field relative to the rest of the league.

 

[CheckMate]

Some people are forgetting Talib had the second worst 1st down and TD ratio per snap in the league.

 

[Kontradiction]

The shorter yardage third down conversion rate by our opponents just shows how big of a problem the coverage was by the LB's in 2012. Hopefully that's fixed because Flacco and the Ravens' offense first got on the move by targetting our LB's before Boldin really exposed the secondary, post-Talib.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Is it really a surprise when looking deeply, that BB has already analyzed this, and has planned an off-season to deal with the specific problem?

The biggest veteran FA signing for the Patriots was Adrian Wilson, who at 6-3 230#, is a nightmare for TEs. A former cagy Probowl SS, who can not be out-sized, nor out-muscled, nor out high-pointed, nor out-foxed by any TE. I predict he will be re-employed by BB, and become the best coverage OLB in the league. Encominiums will follow for Belichick, and the coaching innovation of his "Money", or "Big Nickle " Safety/LB.

In addition BB used his highest draft pick for an OLB/DE, who can be both a "coverage LB", or a outside Pass rusher, to spell Jones and Ninkovitch.