The So-Called 2014 Patriot Cap Squeeeze

[mgteich]

Much has been made of the patriots being in 2014 cap trouble. I would note the following.

1) We will carry money over from 2013. After all we have almost $9M and will likely cut at least one of Fells, Hooman, Blount and Gregory.

2) Fenene money will very likely be available, perhaps over $4M.

3) I don't expect to re-sing Talib.

4) The rest of the UFA include Ninkovich, Cunningham, Love, and Deaderick. This is not much, considering the 2013 class.

So, I suspect that 2014 will be back to a more normal year, with posters calling for major signings, and with no major signings, except re-signings.

To me, the signing of players like Kelly and A. Wilson is what Belichick does in a normal year.

Obviously, much can happen between now and then. However, we seem to have solid depth at almost every position.

 

[Simple Jack's Brother]

Much has been made of the patriots being in 2014 cap trouble. I would note the following.

1) We will carry money over from 2013. After all we have almost $9M and will likely cut at least one of Fells, Hooman, Blount and Gregory.

2) Fenene money will very likely be available, perhaps over $4M.

3) I don't expect to re-sing Talib.

4) The rest of the UFA include Ninkovich, Cunningham, Love, and Deaderick. This is not much, considering the 2013 class.

So, I suspect that 2014 will be back to a more normal year, with posters calling for major signings, and with no major signings, except re-signings.

To me, the signing of players like Kelly and A. Wilson is what Belichick does in a normal year.

Obviously, much can happen between now and then. However, we seem to have solid depth at almost every position.

Why wouldn't you expect them to resign Talib? He's the best corner they've had in years (based on potential and ability), and the CB market absolutely dropped like a brick this year. I can't imagine they'd just let him walk. I think teams finally realized the cap isn't going up much any time soon, and as such, need to be more frugal in FA. I fully expect the Pats to be in the mix to resign him assuming he performs well and doesn't do anything stupid.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Much has been made of the patriots being in 2014 cap trouble. I would note the following.

1) We will carry money over from 2013. After all we have almost $9M and will likely cut at least one of Fells, Hooman, Blount and Gregory.

2) Fenene money will very likely be available, perhaps over $4M.

3) I don't expect to re-sing Talib.

4) The rest of the UFA include Ninkovich, Cunningham, Love, and Deaderick. This is not much, considering the 2013 class.

So, I suspect that 2014 will be back to a more normal year, with posters calling for major signings, and with no major signings, except re-signings.

To me, the signing of players like Kelly and A. Wilson is what Belichick does in a normal year.

Obviously, much can happen between now and then. However, we seem to have solid depth at almost every position.

When I look at this roster the only real weakeness I now see is at Wide Receivers. One can hope that the new young WR corps will be fine, but they haven't demonstrated that yet. But even there they have two or threee great TEs and a couple of NFL experienced WRs, to ease the transition.

We have watched BB rebuild the entire team from the squad that won Superbowls starting in the 2009 offseason.

There is only one defensive player from that era, Vince Wilfork. Everyone else is new. On Offense Brady is the only carryover, but no one else now that the old WRs have been paid off. The Offense is a league leader in yards and scoring so it is fine but it has been rebuilt too and is also very young. The offesne fields a new generation of stars inas well as Brady. In Gronk, Hernandez, Ridley, Volmer, Solder, Mankins, Vareene and Amendola.

Not bad for a total transformation in going on 5 years. Meanwhile we are waiting patiently for the Defense to start dominating in every statistical category, and not just being a league leader in turnovers and run defense.

I'm pretty sure it will come, as we have created an entire new generation of good players and rising stars to go with Wilfork. In Mayo, Chandler Jones, Ninkovitch, Hightower, Spikes, McCourty, Dennard, and Talib the Pats have a good foundation for the rebuilt defense. Last year there was still an obvious hole or two, but those have been addressed now. Even the second teamers seem competent now, and are not just ST only players. Jamie Collins adds a rotation depth to the pass rush; Kelly and/or Armstead provide the interior rush; and Talib plugged the last hole at CB. Either or both Collins and Adrian Wilson can fill the LB coverage hole too.

The Special teams appear to be thoroughly renovated with a good kicker and punter; and league elite KR and PR along with a probowl ST tackler.

 

[belichick010405]

According to overthecap.com, the Patriots have an allocated $116.12 million in 2014 to the top 51 contracts with an estimated $6 million in rollover from this current league year.

If the salary cap remains steady at $123 million, that would provide an adjusted cap available of $12.9 million for the 2014 league season although there should be expectation of an increase of the cap.

The Pats are in a situation where they will have to deal with a number of free agent players in 2014 and 215 based on their cap situation which is tightened a bit because of the new Tom Brady contract.

With that said, it appears that there could be some restructuring of contracts for next year as well.

In particular, Vince Wilfork is up following the 2014 season along with Stephen Gostkowski, Dan Connolly, Steve Gregory, Matt Slater, Nate Solder, Tommie Kelly, Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, Daniel Fells, Shane Vereen, Stephen Ridley, Ryan Mallett, and Marcus Cannon. According to overthecap.com, the Pats are sitting at $83.269 million on 25 players for the 2015 league year.

The Pats have a lot of contract decisions that are going to be needed in conjunction with the next two draft classes.

Lets' say that the salary cap is going to sit at about $127 million for the 2015 season not including the adjusted salary cap because of rollovers. In my view, the rollover is going to be needed while hopefully saving some cap space on guys like Steve Gregory, Ras-I Dowling, Daniel Fells, and someone like Michael Hoomanawanui.

I think that it is going to be a tight window for the Pats to not only determine which up-coming free agents are going to be a priority for their roster future but how the current rookie class along with the 2014 and 2015 draft classes may address the pending free agents.

I think that Wilfork, Talib, Vereen, Ridley, and Solder are the priority free agents and to a lesser extent, Gostkowski, McCourty, Cannon, Ninkovich, Mesko and Mallet are the second tier of priority free agents.

As important as this free agency period was, the next two are probably even more critical when it comes to the future of the Patriots run.

 

[DaBruinz]

The salary cap will go up more than expected in 2014. Just like it went up more than expected in 2013.

Not sure why people think that there is a Cap Squeeze for 2014. In fact, I haven't seen much made of it yet.

Prior to the draft, the Pats had 8.7 million in free space by the top 51. They removed Pryor and Fiametta from that, freeing up about 1.1 Million. However, they added Blount (at 1.375M) and another $555K from the bottom. So, that's an adjustment of about 700K down. So about 8 Million. I expect that with the signings of the draft picks and then the guys who are let go, the Pats will still be around 8 million in free space when all is said and done.

Looking at OvertheCap.com, I don't believe that Blount's roster bonus is the responsibility of the Pats unless it's not paid out until September or I missed something else. If someone has a correction for that, then it's another $350K off the cap.

UFAs for 2013:
Leon Washington, Hoomanawanui, Talib, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Wendell, Love, Svitek, Spikes, Edelman, McDonald, Deaderick, Bernard, Fletcher, Koutivides, Cole, Blount, MESKO

Of those, Cunningham, McDonald, Dearderick, Bernard, Fletcher, Koutivides, and Cole may not make it onto this year's roster.

I can see Talib and Ninkovich being re-signed. Probably Edelman. But, I expect the Pats to have fewer holes next season than this season, so whatever they need to spend, it will be enough.

EDIT: I forgot that the ZOLTAN was a UFA after this season.

 

[belichick010405]

The salary cap will go up more than expected in 2014. Just like it went up more than expected in 2013.

Not sure why people think that there is a Cap Squeeze for 2014. In fact, I haven't seen much made of it yet.

Prior to the draft, the Pats had 8.7 million in free space by the top 51. They removed Pryor and Fiametta from that, freeing up about 1.1 Million. However, they added Blount (at 1.375M) and another $555K from the bottom. So, that's an adjustment of about 700K down. So about 8 Million. I expect that with the signings of the draft picks and then the guys who are let go, the Pats will still be around 8 million in free space when all is said and done.

Looking at OvertheCap.com, I don't believe that Blount's roster bonus is the responsibility of the Pats unless it's not paid out until September or I missed something else. If someone has a correction for that, then it's another $350K off the cap.

UFAs for 2013:
Leon Washington, Hoomanawanui, Talib, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Wendell, Love, Svitek, Spikes, Edelman, McDonald, Deaderick, Bernard, Fletcher, Koutivides, Cole, Blount

Of those, Cunningham, McDonald, Dearderick, Bernard, Fletcher, Koutivides, and Cole may not make it onto this year's roster.

I can see Talib and Ninkovich being re-signed. Probably Edelman. But, I expect the Pats to have fewer holes next season than this season, so whatever they need to spend, it will be enough.

Hey Bruinz - I am looking that the free agent class following the 2014 league season as the one were the Pats are going to have some tough determinations regarding contracts particularly with guys like Solder, both running backs, Mallett, et al. In my view, the 2014 "squeeze" is going to be reflective on what their plans are for the following free agent class.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I don't think we're in bad shape at all. Signed players is 116m. I see another 8.2m in pretty easy cuts; Gostkowski(3m), Gregory(2.350m), Fells(1.750m) and A. Wilson(1.167). Throw in our carry over. Whatever that ends up. We'll still be able to go shopping.

On offense, the only starter not signed is Ryan Wendell. He won't break the bank. But, definitely want to keep. We'll even have many key reserves signed such as; Mallett, Vereen, Bolden, Boyce, Slater, D. Jones, M. Cannon and M. Zusevics. Really no worries at all except a 3rd te and backup interior OL. If the young wr's work out. Could be a big if. But, we'll have to wait and see.

On defense we could lose; Ninko, Spikes and Talib. I'm fine letting Spikes leave. I see Collins as his replacement with Hightower sliding inside. I'd like to keep Talib if he stays healthy and performs well. We've had trouble finding that LCB in case anyone hasn't noticed. I'd like to upgrade Ninko. Maybe, one of our young guys steps up; Francis, Bequette or Buchanan.

Keep (10m for both??..I saved 8.2 with my cuts)
Aqib Talib - LCB
Ryan Wendell - C

Try to improve thru draft/free agency
DT - Depth - 1st Round
SS - Vet if A.Wilson doesn't work out
DE - Always need pass rushers. Vet

Don't think it costs too much to find our k, p and LS. I'd like to keep Mesko and Aiken. Find a cheaper option to Gost thru the draft.

 

[DaBruinz]

Hey Bruinz - I am looking that the free agent class following the 2014 league season as the one were the Pats are going to have some tough determinations regarding contracts particularly with guys like Solder, both running backs, Mallett, et al. In my view, the 2014 "squeeze" is going to be reflective on what their plans are for the following free agent class.

The 2014 UFA class is definitely going to be a drastic one.
Wilfork, Slater, Connolly, Gostkowski, Solder, McCourty, Fells, Vereen, Mallett, Ridley, Cannon.

That being said, I would expect Connolly to be replaced by someone else.
Fells may not even make this year's team.
Wilfork will be 33. Not sure if he'll retire or want to continue playing at that point. Hopefully, we'll have his replacement by then.
Gostkowski I would expect to be re-signed.
McCourty I would expect to be re-signed.
Ridley and Vereen I would expect to be re-signed.
Solder I would expect to be re-signed.

Cannon and Mallett have a lot to prove between now and then.

Oh, the 2015 cap is expected to be a large boost somewhere in the 10-12 million range despite what the rumors have been. The amount that the TV contracts have gone up (even without the DirecTV one) would cover it.

 

[DaBruinz]

I don't think we're in bad shape at all. Signed players is 116m. I see another 8.2m in pretty easy cuts; Gostkowski(3m), Gregory(2.350m), Fells(1.750m) and A. Wilson(1.167). Throw in our carry over. Whatever that ends up. We'll still be able to go shopping.

On offense, the only starter not signed is Ryan Wendell. He won't break the bank. But, definitely want to keep. We'll even have many key reserves signed such as; Mallett, Vereen, Bolden, Boyce, Slater, D. Jones, M. Cannon and M. Zusevics. Really no worries at all except a 3rd te and backup interior OL. If the young wr's work out. Could be a big if. But, we'll have to wait and see.

On defense we could lose; Ninko, Spikes and Talib. I'm fine letting Spikes leave. I see Collins as his replacement with Hightower sliding inside. I'd like to keep Talib if he stays healthy and performs well. We've had trouble finding that LCB in case anyone hasn't noticed. I'd like to upgrade Ninko. Maybe, one of our young guys steps up; Francis, Bequette or Buchanan.

Keep (10m for both??..I saved 8.2 with my cuts)
Aqib Talib - LCB
Ryan Wendell - C

Try to improve thru draft/free agency
DT - Depth - 1st Round
SS - Vet if A.Wilson doesn't work out
DE - Always need pass rushers. Vet

Don't think it costs too much to find our k, p and LS. I'd like to keep Mesko and Aiken. Find a cheaper option to Gost thru the draft.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Aiken doesn't make it through camp. He was marginal last year.

Why do people want to get rid of Gostkowski? It's been proven that these perceptions about him are wrong. People seem to overlook that it was as much his kicking as it was the coverage group that had the Pats rated 3rd best in the league in opposing kick returns at just 20.5 yard allowed per return. And, as for the FGs, only 1 of the misses (which wasn't actually a miss) would have affected any of the games they played.

 

[supafly]

Much has been made of the patriots being in 2014 cap trouble.

I honestly haven't heard much of this concern.

The rest of the UFA include Ninkovich, Cunningham, Love, and Deaderick. This is not much, considering the 2013 class.

Sure unless of course you actually include that crazy Brandon Spikes character...then it begins to look a little differently

 

[supafly]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Aiken doesn't make it through camp. He was marginal last year.

Why do people want to get rid of Gostkowski? It's been proven that these perceptions about him are wrong. People seem to overlook that it was as much his kicking as it was the coverage group that had the Pats rated 3rd best in the league in opposing kick returns at just 20.5 yard allowed per return. And, as for the FGs, only 1 of the misses (which wasn't actually a miss) would have affected any of the games they played.

Unless you count the blown 38 yarder in the ARZ game of course, which would have won the game after the defense got the ball back for us in insanely dramatic fashion.

 

[Jimke]

The 2014 UFA class is definitely going to be a drastic one.
Wilfork, Slater, Connolly, Gostkowski, Solder, McCourty, Fells, Vereen, Mallett, Ridley, Cannon.

That being said, I would expect Connolly to be replaced by someone else.
Fells may not even make this year's team.
Wilfork will be 33. Not sure if he'll retire or want to continue playing at that point. Hopefully, we'll have his replacement by then.
Gostkowski I would expect to be re-signed.
McCourty I would expect to be re-signed.
Ridley and Vereen I would expect to be re-signed.
Solder I would expect to be re-signed.

Cannon and Mallett have a lot to prove between now and then.

Oh, the 2015 cap is expected to be a large boost somewhere in the 10-12 million range despite what the rumors have been. The amount that the TV contracts have gone up (even without the DirecTV one) would cover it.

The only fly in the ointment is that Gostkowski, Solder, and Vereen have
the same hard-nosed agent as Wes Welker.

 

[jmt57]

The only fly in the ointment is that Gostkowski, Solder, and Vereen have
the same hard-nosed agent as Wes Welker.

Yeah, Dunn was just plain horrible to deal with on the Aaron Hernandez negotiations.

I do have to say that I am quite impressed at the number of threads that you have found a way to post your 'Pats are doomed' theory based on the Welker negotiations, David Dunn, and his Athletes First clients .

Should I presume that he will have Jake Bequette, Alfonzo Dennard, Aaron Hernandez, Ryan Mallett, Ryan Mesko, Nate Solder and Shane Vereen all hold out and demand to be traded?

And let me guess: the Pats decided to trade the 29th draft pick rather than make a selection because Cordarelle Patterson was represented by Dunn.

 

[ausbacker]

Blount has re-worked his deal with the Patriots and will now be playing for the 4th year minimum of $630,000 reducing his base salary and cap hit in the process.

Sounds like a good little soldier to me. So much for players not wanting to play for Bill Belichick. The force is very much alive and well in Foxboro.

 

[supafly]

And let me guess: the Pats decided to trade the 29th draft pick rather than make a selection because Cordarelle Patterson was represented by Dunn.

Understanding your sarcasm obviously, I'd have to think that Patterson was a lot lower on their board than many here initially thought.

He played ONE season of any kind of viable offensive system, and GM Rick Speilman of Minnesota referred to his situation yesterday as him being "limited," and "behind" the usual knowledge of a rookie who normally joins their team.

I'm sure there are many here that would have rather had Patterson, but I am not one of them...I think Belichick really went out of his way to mesh the cerebral traits needed with succeeding in this offense with the physical talents of a typical WR. Hopefully he succeeded at it.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Why wouldn't you expect them to resign Talib? He's the best corner they've had in years (based on potential and ability), and the CB market absolutely dropped like a brick this year. I can't imagine they'd just let him walk. I think teams finally realized the cap isn't going up much any time soon, and as such, need to be more frugal in FA. I fully expect the Pats to be in the mix to resign him assuming he performs well and doesn't do anything stupid.

If he has a big season..he will get big $$ from else where. But if he stays good/hurt here and there..we will keep him

 

[supafly]

Why wouldn't you expect them to resign Talib? He's the best corner they've had in years (based on potential and ability), and the CB market absolutely dropped like a brick this year. I can't imagine they'd just let him walk. I think teams finally realized the cap isn't going up much any time soon, and as such, need to be more frugal in FA. I fully expect the Pats to be in the mix to resign him assuming he performs well and doesn't do anything stupid.

I understand your point, but that's an awfully big assumption to make--especially when you look at the health aspect of things.

Talib has been unable to finish any of his past 3 seasons with the same two nagging injuries of hip/hamstring, and has averaged missing almost 1/3 of each season in his five year career....

IF he can stay healthy and contribute he'll likely be in the mix to both stay/leave at around the same 50-50 ratio that many of us projected this offseason (I didn't even give him that) due to wanting more money than the team is willing to commit to.

His one year deal here reeks of leaving at the end of the year to me, but anything's possible and it's certainly up in the air at this point--so I can understand your point very much.

If Talib can prove his health issues and character concerns are not going to be a problem moving forward then Belichick may reward him with a longer term pact. If there are signs of either one of those issues, you can pack his bags right now because he'll be nothing more than a one (and a half) year rental, and Belichick couldn't care less about losing a mid round draft pick.

 

[Brady2Moss]

I understand your point, but that's an awfully big assumption to make--especially when you look at the health aspect of things.

Talib has been unable to finish any of his past 3 seasons with the same two nagging injuries of hip/hamstring, and has averaged missing almost 1/3 of each season in his five year career....

IF he can stay healthy and contribute he'll likely be in the mix to both stay/leave at around the same 50-50 ratio that many of us projected this offseason (I didn't even give him that) due to wanting more money than the team is willing to commit to.

His one year deal here reeks of leaving at the end of the year to me, but anything's possible and it's certainly up in the air at this point--so I can understand your point very much.

If Talib can prove his health issues and character concerns are not going to be a problem moving forward then Belichick may reward him with a longer term pact. If there are signs of either one of those issues, you can pack his bags right now because he'll be nothing more than a one (and a half) year rental, and Belichick couldn't care less about losing a mid round draft pick.

I think Bill very much wants him as they offered him a 5 year deal I believe this year. Then again this could be because they thought they could get him at a steal, but still 5 years is 5 years that is a long term commitment. Problem is if Talib plays like a long-term contract type player, we're going to get outbid. I hope not because we need a true #1 corner.

And God help us if he walks and we turn to the draft for one :bricks:

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think we'll be fine, I recall alot of 2014 available cap savings through cutting certain players, somewhere around at least $6M - $8M on guys I remember were backups (or should be backups) at best.

SLIGHTLY OT but does anyone know how much cap space we have left for this season

 

[mgteich]

The available cap is about $10M after the redo of Blount's contract.

SLIGHTLY OT but does anyone know how much cap space we have left for this season