The BIGGEST REACH of the 2013 draft: Harmon vs RANKED SAFETIES taken after him

[Patsbacker]

Its all subjective. Let's see how it plays out. Osi Umenyiora was unranked by most "draft experts" Kiper called him a major reach. Giants selected him 56th overall in the second round. No one knows these teams draft boards. Mike Loyko tweeted that there were teams that had Collins as a 1st rounder and several NFL execs loved Dobson. Last year there were teams that actually had Tavon Wilson ranked as a 2nd rounder.

Loyko along with others believe the Pats were trying to trade back with the pick but couldn't so they took the guy fearing he might not be there later. To quote Mayock, the more I saw of this kid, I said "Wow." I hope him and Wilson turn out to be players, if they don't, then I understand that's the draft. Remember a 50% success rate is a good draft.

 

[patfanken]

I find it interesting that 3 safeties were taken over the next 25 picks. It would explain why BB when with him so early. Clearly that among those 2 Safeties, BB wanted Harmon. He also knew that there were 3 or 4 teams that were also looking for a S.

The bottom line is that none of this "Value" crap means anything until we see how the players taken ultimately contribute to the team. Chad Jackson was considered a great value.,..the day after the draft. After that...not so much. Deadrick and Love have been huge values compared to how they came into the league. Yet I rarely hear their names mentioned when the "draft critics" are on a roll,.

Bedard is right about one thing, in that there are 4 safeties taken all within a round of each other. 3 years from now we will be able to sit back and have a good idea who had the best pick. THAT's the way to judge a draft, unlike State who has already made instant judgements on players who haven't worn pads one day in the NFL.

 

[manxman2601]

I find it interesting that 3 safeties were taken over the next 25 picks. It would explain why BB when with him so early. Clearly that among those 2 Safeties, BB wanted Harmon. He also knew that there were 3 or 4 teams that were also looking for a S.

The bottom line is that none of this "Value" crap means anything until we see how the players taken ultimately contribute to the team. Chad Jackson was considered a great value.,..the day after the draft. After that...not so much. Deadrick and Love have been huge values compared to how they came into the league. Yet I rarely hear their names mentioned when the "draft critics" are on a roll,.

Bedard is right about one thing, in that there are 4 safeties taken all within a round of each other. 3 years from now we will be able to sit back and have a good idea who had the best pick. THAT's the way to judge a draft, unlike State who has already made instant judgements on players who haven't worn pads one day in the NFL.

And two of those safeties came on a visit to the Pats so it's pretty clear BB rated Harmon better.

 

[patchick]

I find it interesting that 3 safeties were taken over the next 25 picks. It would explain why BB when with him so early. Clearly that among those 2 Safeties, BB wanted Harmon. He also knew that there were 3 or 4 teams that were also looking for a S.

Which brings us back to the case of Tavon Wilson.

Maybe it would be useful to borrow a concept from tennis and think about "forced" vs. "unforced" reaches? Sometimes you have to take a player who you would normally think of as a round 5 talent in round 3, because the shape of the draft forces your hand?

 

[patsfan13]

Does anyone care about Mankins and Vollmer were reaches?

Does anyone care that D Bulter & C Jackson were 'good' picks?

 

[Gronkandez]

After this draft I decided I'm no longer going to get upset if the Patriots trade back in a draft. If they're just going to select a guy 3-4 rounds before he's projected to go it's kind of a waste. Trade back, accumulate extra picks, then draft the guy no one has ever heard of.

ps. I have a hunch that Dobson is going to be a bust but Boyce will work out.

 

[patchick]

After this draft I decided I'm no longer going to get upset if the Patriots trade back in a draft. If their just going to select a guy 3-4 rounds before he's projected to go it's kind of a waste. Trade back, accumulate extra picks, then draft the guy no one has ever heard of.

ps. I have a hunch that Dobson is going to be a bust but Boyce will work out.

If you don't like Dobson and Harmon but do like Boyce, don't blame trading back! D & H were taken with NE's own picks, standing pat.

 

[mgteich]

No one other than Belichick has suggested that we didn't waste value between 91 and 102.

I guess most would have been fine if we picked Boyce at 91 and Harmon at 102 (reaching because no one would trade for a lower 4th or where Belichick could be sure to get him, and we had no picks until the 7th).

What bothers folks curiously is based on Belichick's success in the 7th. Surely, we'd have one or two more young prospects if Belichick traded down with 91 or 102 and picked Harmon in the 5th.

If you are going to push me, then yes I will say that there is no such thing as a draft day reach. It's merely something invented to try and quantify a draft for fans and the media. There are hundreds of different boards out there but there is only one that matters and that's a teams own board. "reach" is also completely meaningless without access to every teams board.

The Patriots may well have valued Harmon higher than other teams, we can not know this, but that doesn't mean it was a reach, it just means that the Patriots valued Harmon higher than other teams. If Duron Harmon becomes a perennial pro bowl player and future hall of famer, everyone will call him one of the greatest draft "steals" which only serves to prove how nonsensical those terms are.

 

[manxman2601]

No one other than Belichick has suggested that we didn't waste value between 91 and 102.

I guess most would have been fine if we picked Boyce at 91 and Harmon at 102 (reaching because no one would trade for a lower 4th or where Belichick could be sure to get him, and we had no picks until the 7th).

What bothers folks curiously is based on Belichick's success in the 7th. Surely, we'd have one or two more young prospects if Belichick traded down with 91 or 102 and picked Harmon in the 5th.

He clearly tried to trade down at 91 (the clock counted all the way down) but clearly didn't have any appealing takers. The silly thing is, and I think you're pointing this out, is that if Boyce and Harmon were reversed, most would have been fine with the way this played out (or if BB had taken Patton at 91 and Harmon at 102).

 

[Tasco]

Actually, I think there's a very significant difference between a player being taken much higher than expected vs. much lower than expected.

When a Jesse Williams or Da'Rick Rogers slides and slides, it tells us that ALL 32 TEAMS AGREED he wasn't worth taking higher. Most often, that means that there's extra information the league has that fans and media don't. (Injury in Williams' case, character details in Rogers'.)

When a guy like Harmon is drafted much higher than expected, all we know for sure is that ONE TEAM felt he was worth it. Perhaps there were more teams coveting him soon after, or perhaps that one team is an outlier and could have gotten the same player 2 or 3 rounds later.

Personally, I think it's totally fair to call Harmon the biggest reach of the draft. But now that he's aboard, I look forward to him proving himself a steal.

Jerry Jones and Travis Frederick probably disagree.

 

[Metaphors]

The issue I have with classifying Harmon as a reach is the almost complete lack of scouting information available on him. And what little information is available is almost all positive. In fact, Bedard's "limited" comment was the first negative I've found...and he doesn't even explain what he means. "Limited" by gravity preventing him from achieving flight? "Limited" by Newton's laws from tackling a person through the center of the earth?

What do I know about Harmon?

- Ran a 4.45 at his pro day (so timing may be questionable) so he has at least functional safety speed, and possibly has very good speed.
- Is 6' 195lbs so is solid for a FS but a little undersized for taking on blocks.
- Has good vert (36") and broad (125") that compare favorably with top safeties like Elam.
- In clips I've seen when playing centerfield, closes fast on receivers and RBs in the hole...supported by limited scouting notes I've seen and reinforces the notion that his timed speed translates to the field.
- 2x all-conference and has played against top QBs (Nassib, Wilson, Daniels, Bridgewater)
- 5 interceptions in 2011 so hands aren't inept

That's about it. Anecdotal evidence on intangibles are all positive but hard to quantify. If I told you the Pats took a safety at #91 and that is all the information I provided, I doubt you would be too upset.

As for opportunity cost, this really isn't a very good draft class. As it looks like Belichick addressed his target areas, the one opportunity missed by taking Harmon was getting picks in 2014. And considering that pick used just about every allotted second, it is reasonable to assume they tried to trade into 2014 (shaping up to be a superior draft class) but couldn't find any takers.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

As for opportunity cost, this really isn't a very good draft class. As it looks like Belichick addressed his target areas, the one opportunity missed by taking Harmon was getting picks in 2014. And considering that pick used just about every allotted second, it is reasonable to assume they tried to trade into 2014 (shaping up to be a superior draft class) but couldn't find any takers.

The dreariness of this draft class may also explain why BB didn't trade into this draft class last year.

I'm sure he had other options besides trading up for Jones and Hightower.

 

[patchick]

The dreariness of this draft class may also explain why BB didn't trade into this draft class last year.

I'm sure he had other options besides trading up for Jones and Hightower.

I agree, and I also think it's telling that he hasn't been trading 2014 picks for vets.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Wanted to share Peter King's comments on the Pats draft:
2013 NFL Draft -- Tavon Austin, Geno Smith, Tyrann Mathieu and more thoughts - Peter King - SI.com

"Three draft picks from Rutgers out of seven total? Freaky too. But Bill Belichick deserves the benefit of the doubt for now -- and I say for now because he's been a poor cornerback picker over the last five years." (emphasis added)

There are several issues:
1) Did u REACH for a player -- when u could have obtained the same player in later rounds or as an undrafted rookie free agent. Like many here, I believe HARMON at least was a HUGE REACH

2) What is the opportunity cost of this reach. It is the ability for BB to draft another player at the same position or at another player who could have improved the team. Again, I believe there were. Opinions on who;/which position might differ. But be ready in the years ahead, whenever someone picked after Harmon becomes a huge star, to hear the lament: "if only BB had...."

3) This concerns the ability of a great coach to pick CBs. On this score as King points out, he has not had good fortune. He is trying however. Talib was a good choice. Dennard has promise. Bedard liked the Logan pick because he believes on paper the depth at CB is better today: "Certainly a long ways from Edelman, Sterling Moore, and Phillip Adams playing big roles in championship games." But BB's specific choices at CB are a different issue from the REACH at 91 for Harmon

4) Finally, I want to touch on BB's affinity for RUTGERS. There is NOTHING wrong with getting multiple picks from the same school but it is rare (or "freaky" in Peter King's words) to staff your backfield with college players from 1 school. Are the sum of the parts larger than the whole? That seems to be the expectation. But that is a huge risk. The game is different (higher level of competition) in the NFL. Also, did Rutgers have the most talented players at each of the positions? (Unlikely). Plus, are we to assume that the Pats defensive coaches can't teach talented players from different schools to play in the Pats' system? Finally, u didn't see the old Rutgers coach, now at Tampa, reach for ANY of his players, did u?

Being enamored blinds you to the drawbacks of your approach. Here's hoping someone (the Krafts?) in the Pats draft room really challenged BB on each of his choices -- and hold him accountable in his role as GM.

 

[AzPatsFan]

What a wsste if time. You can't change it.

To make y'all happy, simply pencil in Michael Buchanon as the 3rd round pick, and Duran Harmon as the 7th round pick.

There the drafted list is the same, but is there any longer any reasonable *****ing about the draft selections? I didn't think so.

 

[ATippett56]

The New England Patriots now have four free safeties currently on the 90 man roster:

Devin McCourty
Steve Gregory
Tavon Wilson
Juron Harmon

I'm still trying to find the next young Rodney Harrison, the proverbial human missile at the strong safety position, on the 90 man roster.

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2013/04/new_england_patriots_release_5.html

Note: Removed free safety Malcolm Williams from the list

 

[VJCPatriot]

Now, if BB had picked Da'Rick Rogers with his last pick......................

That would be called a REACH by your own definition. Since NO TEAM drafted Rogers. Come on now, are we still hang up on the same thing every year? Pats draft some guys you never heard of and of course fan has to post a rant. "Bu-but-but- he wasn't in my draft guide!! Waaaaaaahhhh!!!"

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Mike Reiss today sheds some light on how the Harmon pick may have been made by BB against the advice of his own scouts. (Remember Reiss has great access to the Patriots and is very very careful with his words. He is NOT instinctively critical or outspoken when it comes to BB. I would instead characterize him as usually deferential and cautious with anything like criticism).

"My best guess is that it's Bill Belichick looking at things differently from most teams. Part of that opinion is based on talking with people from other teams. In the case of Harmon, I also wouldn't be surprised if Belichick viewed things differently from many on his own staff, but as the personnel chief, that's his right. Knowing that Belichick stresses the motto "do your job" and everyone should know/execute their clearly defined role, I just wonder if anyone in the room stops Belichick before making a pick like Tavon Wilson or Duron Harmon and says, "Bill, we could probably get this guy a little later and get some better value elsewhere." The Harmon pick was a real outlier, and with the limited information I have, comes across as something that would have been done unilaterally more than as a consensus. (emphasis added)
New England Patriots Mailbag: Second-guessing Bill Belichick's draft - ESPN Boston
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/page/reissmailbagweek0430/second-guessing-bill-belichick-draft

At another point, Reiss calls the decision a "Strange one."

Maybe its time for an intervention when it comes to BB's defensive picks. Here's Reiss again:
"Here's the bottom-line thought: If the Patriots' defense doesn't turn a more decisive corner, and we're seeing some of the same struggles in 2013 as we've seen in recent years, it will be a big disappointment. Some hard questions would have to be asked."

Question is when these questions will be asked and by whom.

 

[captain stone]

Heh! Just re-watched Mayock commenting on Harmon: "the safety inside was as good as the corner outside". IE, the corner taken in the 3rd round. So if he's "as good" and you think Ryan was value in the 3rd, how is Harmon not equally good value in the 3rd?

Maybe Mayock doesn't think highly of Ryan either.

 

[captain stone]

Very good points. One other point is that BB would not have taken him when he did if he thought he could take him later. That means that the Patriots had a very strong reading that another team would take him if they did not take him when they did.

That would have to be the logical ass-umption. But if Bill is selling that Harmon would be taken
before his next pick, a mere 10 spots later, then I'm not buying.