Greg Bedard: Time for Patriots to draft an impact receiver

[Deus Irae]

I noted this in another thread:

If the Patriots want to do a drop down from round one and still keep their pick of the WR prospects, they've pretty much got to limit the drop to no further than the Eagles at 2.3. After that comes a run of teams needing WR help:

Lions
Bengals
Cardinals
Jets
Titans
Bills

 

[Rob0729]

I noted this in another thread:

If the Patriots want to do a drop down from round one and still keep their pick of the WR prospects, they've pretty much got to limit the drop to no further than the Eagles at 2.3. After that comes a run of teams needing WR help:

Lions
Bengals
Cardinals
Jets
Titans
Bills

Come the end of tonight two or three of those teams may not have a WR need anymore. In fact, by the time the Pats will be in position to trade their pick, they will know if there will be a strong market for WRs in round two or not.

By the time the Pats are on the clock and ready to pick or trade the pick, the entire landscape on the WR market could be shifted radically. It could be that there will be plenty of WRs to choose from in the second round without much competition where they would trade back to. On the flip side, there could be an unexpected run on WRs in the first and the Pats will be forced to get someone they were targeting in the second round at 29.

 

[Deus Irae]

Come the end of tonight two or three of those teams may not have a WR need anymore. In fact, by the time the Pats will be in position to trade their pick, they will know if there will be a strong market for WRs in round two or not.

By the time the Pats are on the clock and ready to pick or trade the pick, the entire landscape on the WR market could be shifted radically. It could be that there will be plenty of WRs to choose from in the second round without much competition where they would trade back to. On the flip side, there could be an unexpected run on WRs in the first and the Pats will be forced to get someone they were targeting in the second round at 29.

I expect 2-3 WRs to already be off the board. That's why the drop has to be so small. If more have come off the board by then, dropping down may not even be an option if they're looking to have the pick of the WRs.

 

[mgteich]

I missed the thread where we traded into the top 10 to get Austin. Other than Austin, no wide receiver is a likely immediate impact player.

Time for Patriots to draft an impact receiver - Patriots - Boston.com

 

[naF staP]

They have an impact receiver! Danny Amendola!!

 

[Rob0729]

I expect 2-3 WRs to already be off the board. That's why the drop has to be so small.

I am too, but those 2-3 WRs might go to teams that you listed.

 

[Froob]

I think we'll get a WR with their 1st selection but, it will be some guy nobody but draft junkies have ever heard of. But, he'll turn out to be a stud.

 

[jmt57]

Comment today from Bedard:

Patriots haven't drafted well because the WRs they take early are dumb. Woods is no dummy.​

He also had this to say when asked about WR Markus Wheaton:

Good, solid players. One of the guys they could take. But the difference to me, between Woods and Wheaton, is Woods needs less development. He's ready right now. Wheaton isn't. If I'm the Patriots, and especially if I pick up a two for Mallett, I'm double dipping at WR. I'm taking the surer thing in round one, and then I'm going for the freak athlete in 2 or 3.​

Another comment from Bedard in his chat this morning:

I think you're mistaking the Patriots wanting and exploiting the other team in base defense for conservatism. Just because a team isn't in shotgun with five wide doesn't mean they're being conservative. That being said, the lack of a functioning X receiver has really hurt this team since Moss left. Deion Branch gives you little. Brandon Lloyd had zero toughness and no YAC. There has to be at least one receiver in this draft that can give you what Lloyd gave you, if not top it. If you're the Patriots, go find him. You've had all year to scout these guys.​

There is also this, which echoes the opinion of several people on this forum:

Nothing to some people. I've consistently said the offense needs to be addressed. Offense (14.3 points) has been the problem in recent playoff losses, not the defense. And with Welker gone and Gronkowski slow to heal, I definitely feel offense is the more needy area.​

Lastly, in regards to the Pats' philosophy with evaluating wide receivers, and what needs to change:

Well, they went wrong in many different directions on Jackson. If you want all the details, I suggest you read War Room by Michael Holley. Basically, every scout and WR coach Brian Daboll (who is back now) hated Chad Jackson. Said he was lazy and not very bright. But Belichick completely overrode them in favor of Urban Meyer. And instead of drafting Greg Jennings, the Patriots traded up and made the worst pick of Belichick's tenure.

The constant theme is the Patriots have chosen athletic ability over football smarts. People like to rail against the Wonderlic, but, I'm sorry, it's not just a coincidence that the only star the Patriots have drafted at WR -- Deion Branch -- also scored the highest by far at the position (don't know Edelman's, but I'm guessing it was also high).

The Patriots look for two things first: ability to catch, and to gain separation. Sorry, but they need to change it to: catch, ability to process the game/smarts and then go from there. There is no point drafting a guy who is not going to do what Brady wants because he's not going to get on the field. EVER​

NFL Draft chat with Greg A. Bedard Thursday at 11 a.m. - Extra Points - Boston.com

https://twitter.com/GregABedard

 

[Deus Irae]

Just as an aside:

With this lousy QB class, we can afford to hold out hope that some team will absolutely panic and decide to make the huge gamble for Mallett. While I think that would be crazy of the trading team, we've seen plenty of crazy over the years.

Edit: and as I type this, Bedard is reporting that multiple teams have called the Patriots about a Mallett trade.

 

[jmt57]

One more very interesting stat provided by Bedard:

Since 1991, 25 percent of first-round receivers have caught at least 50 balls as rookies. In the second round, it's 10 percent.​

 

[patfanken]

Pats fans are setting themselves up for disappointment, the Patriots will draft a guard with the 29th overall pick.

I really hope you are being sarcastic with this one. God I hope not.

I don't understand the perception that we need interior OL position. With Mankins, Connolly, McDonald and Cannon available to play G and Wendell, Connolly, and McDonald, all capable C's, we are more than adequately set inside. There are multiple areas of greater need elsewhere.

 

[manxman2601]

Comment today from Bedard:

Patriots haven't drafted well because the WRs they take early are dumb. Woods is no dummy.​

He also had this to say when asked about WR Markus Wheaton:

Good, solid players. One of the guys they could take. But the difference to me, between Woods and Wheaton, is Woods needs less development. He's ready right now. Wheaton isn't. If I'm the Patriots, and especially if I pick up a two for Mallett, I'm double dipping at WR. I'm taking the surer thing in round one, and then I'm going for the freak athlete in 2 or 3.​

Another comment from Bedard in his chat this morning:

I think you're mistaking the Patriots wanting and exploiting the other team in base defense for conservatism. Just because a team isn't in shotgun with five wide doesn't mean they're being conservative. That being said, the lack of a functioning X receiver has really hurt this team since Moss left. Deion Branch gives you little. Brandon Lloyd had zero toughness and no YAC. There has to be at least one receiver in this draft that can give you what Lloyd gave you, if not top it. If you're the Patriots, go find him. You've had all year to scout these guys.​

There is also this, which echoes the opinion of several people on this forum:

Nothing to some people. I've consistently said the offense needs to be addressed. Offense (14.3 points) has been the problem in recent playoff losses, not the defense. And with Welker gone and Gronkowski slow to heal, I definitely feel offense is the more needy area.​

Lastly, in regards to the Pats' philosophy with evaluating wide receivers, and what needs to change:

Well, they went wrong in many different directions on Jackson. If you want all the details, I suggest you read War Room by Michael Holley. Basically, every scout and WR coach Brian Daboll (who is back now) hated Chad Jackson. Said he was lazy and not very bright. But Belichick completely overrode them in favor of Urban Meyer. And instead of drafting Greg Jennings, the Patriots traded up and made the worst pick of Belichick's tenure.

The constant theme is the Patriots have chosen athletic ability over football smarts. People like to rail against the Wonderlic, but, I'm sorry, it's not just a coincidence that the only star the Patriots have drafted at WR -- Deion Branch -- also scored the highest by far at the position (don't know Edelman's, but I'm guessing it was also high).

The Patriots look for two things first: ability to catch, and to gain separation. Sorry, but they need to change it to: catch, ability to process the game/smarts and then go from there. There is no point drafting a guy who is not going to do what Brady wants because he's not going to get on the field. EVER​

NFL Draft chat with Greg A. Bedard Thursday at 11 a.m. - Extra Points - Boston.com

https://twitter.com/GregABedard

Of the WR wonderlics we know about, Woods has the highest at 23.

 

[randomk1]

That Mallett trade would make for an exciting draft.

And a WR in the 1st sounds too sexy to be true. Ain't happening. Probably be another trade down.

 

[Sicilian]

One more very interesting stat provided by Bedard:

Since 1991, 25 percent of first-round receivers have caught at least 50 balls as rookies. In the second round, it's 10 percent.​

I feel like the only reason we make these kinds of stats is because the rounds are a nice clean way to separate them. It seems to me a more relevant breakdown of picks would be:

Picks 1 -16 is its own category.
Mid 1st through Mid 2nd is the next.
Then Mid 2nd through Mid 3rd, etc, etc.

I feel like any WR taken at 29 shouldn't be lumped in with those taken top 10, and that kind of goes for most positions.

 

[manxman2601]

I really hope you are being sarcastic with this one. God I hope not.

I don't understand the perception that we need interior OL position. With Mankins, Connolly, McDonald and Cannon available to play G and Wendell, Connolly, and McDonald, all capable C's, we are more than adequately set inside. There are multiple areas of greater need elsewhere.

Mankins and Connolly both missed a lot of football last year, account for nearly 12 m in salary between them and are both over 30. In terms of mid to long term planning, interior OL is certainly something that should be considered.

 

[Kontradiction]

Just as an aside:

With this lousy QB class, we can afford to hold out hope that some team will absolutely panic and decide to make the huge gamble for Mallett. While I think that would be crazy of the trading team, we've seen plenty of crazy over the years.

Edit: and as I type this, Bedard is reporting that multiple teams have called the Patriots about a Mallett trade.

Eeeeeeexcellent. Move Mallett and try to secure a 2nd or 3rd for him (probably the latter). Pick up a quarterback later on in the draft with the 7th.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

Of the WR wonderlics we know about, Woods has the highest at 23.

Kansas State WR Chris Harper had a 33 on his wonderlic according to rotoworld. Don't really know much about him though.
Anyone know where he is projected to be drafted?

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

I thought Bedard was making an interesting distinction:

Typically the Patriots seem to be drafting for the season after the upcoming season.

Last year, with a new CBA in place, the Patriots picked more for need and wound up with 4-5 rookies who played meaningful snaps at some points in the season.

Bedard's point was basically, do we see the Patriots continue to draft in their old style, a couple of years down the line? Or, did something with the CBA (or some other change) cause the Patriots to change their drafting tactic.

Point I'd make on this is that it's hard to break a WR pick in the 1st round down into either of those categories. WR is both an immediate and long term need.

 

[Rob0729]

Just as an aside:

With this lousy QB class, we can afford to hold out hope that some team will absolutely panic and decide to make the huge gamble for Mallett. While I think that would be crazy of the trading team, we've seen plenty of crazy over the years.

Edit: and as I type this, Bedard is reporting that multiple teams have called the Patriots about a Mallett trade.

I said my wild theory is that the Browns use a second round pick they get for trading Albert to the Dolphins on Mallett, but it may not be so wild.

 

[Brady2Moss]

Here's hoping for an outside receiver I agree that WR is our biggest need. Especially in the playoffs our offense has been garbage.

That said if the right DE falls to us take him in a second can't have enough pass rush.