Little chance any draftee will be a starter...

[VrabelJr]

Quick rant: Year after year, leading up to the draft people pronounce some lights out Guard a top 10 or 15 pick. The draft comes, and they barely go in the 1st round. Last year, David DeCastro was considered a once-in-a-decade type Guard and he only went #24 -- to a team with incredible need at Guard.

 

[Metaphors]

Quick rant: Year after year, leading up to the draft people pronounce some lights out Guard a top 10 or 15 pick. The draft comes, and they barely go in the 1st round. Last year, David DeCastro was considered a once-in-a-decade type Guard and he only went #24 -- to a team with incredible need at Guard.

Have the same observation. People doing projections often ignore the humans making the draft decisions.

In the top 3rd of the 1st round, you have coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to put their mark on their team. Is a guard the difference maker they (and the press and fans) are looking for? Unlikely.

In the middle 3rd, you have coaches hoping to stop a downward spiral or coaches hoping to take the next step into the playoffs. It is unlikely (though not unprecedented) that a guard is the one, visible acquisition needed to accomplish that.

The bottom 3rd is the place to look. There are likely one or two of the playoff teams that would identify an elite interior OL as the primary need to get them over the top or keep them there.

You don't have to draft a scrub to get accused of screwing up a first round pick. You just have to pass on a "splash" guy that does extremely well. If your job as a coach/GM is on the line, hanging your hat on a guard and then not winning more games the next year is a huge risk.

I've seen Warmack/Cooper associated with the Cards, Titans and Chargers. I could easily see all them looking elsewhere during the draft. The Rams at 16 is where I would see the first strong consideration of Warmack...though they really need to get a weapon at WR. The Cowboys (18), Bears (20) and Rams (22) is the area most likely to target Warmack and Cooper. If one or both of them escape this block, there is little to stop them from slipping to the Pats at 29. Obviously pending a trade-up...but devoting multiple high picks on a guard is an even more risky proposition.

 

[Jimke]

That is the current group-think, but guards can slide if the draft falls a certain way. He has a couple of key teams to get by (Fins, Dallas, Chicago) but they all have other pressing needs to address as well.



That was a stretch. But would it really surprise you if Ryan, McFadden or Simon (all guys the Pats could get in the 3rd) lined up opposite Talib for game #1? I'm a big Dennard guy (he was the one guy I got right in the draft game last year) and he should see plenty of snaps regardless, but that is an area where the Pats should have a pretty open competition.



The way this draft class looks, it would surprise me if the Pats exit day 2 without a CB and WR. There are interesting prospects at DT, but I'm not sure what the Pats are looking for (if anything).

I don't see a 3-down DE available to the Pats so I see that position as being a value play late (a TBC slider...possibly Taylor, Goodman, Edwards, Kruger). If McCourty stays at safety, I'm not sure I see a pick there for the Pats. I don't think they are looking to flush Gregory, give up on Tavon or carry 6 safeties on the roster.

Don't bet the house on the Patriots draftng ANY wide receivers. I can see them signing 4 or 5 UDFA wide receivers. I just hope they don't pass over the top ranked UDFA receivers to avoid paying them bonuses.

 

[jmt57]

I can see them signing 4 or 5 UDFA wide receivers. I just hope they don't pass over the top ranked UDFA receivers to avoid paying them bonuses.

Why would you think that the Pats would do that? Any historical precedent on passing on an UDFA in order to save on a signing bonus?


I have seen some real doozies on "the Pats are cheap" line over the years, but I have to say that this one may top them all. Hall of fame classic right there.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with all your comments.

And no, I would not pass on Cooper if he is available at 29.

I agree that we need to come out of Day 2 with a corner and a wide receiver. We do need DL help, given how many DL's we have playing their contract year.

That is the current group-think, but guards can slide if the draft falls a certain way. He has a couple of key teams to get by (Fins, Dallas, Chicago) but they all have other pressing needs to address as well.



That was a stretch. But would it really surprise you if Ryan, McFadden or Simon (all guys the Pats could get in the 3rd) lined up opposite Talib for game #1? I'm a big Dennard guy (he was the one guy I got right in the draft game last year) and he should see plenty of snaps regardless, but that is an area where the Pats should have a pretty open competition.



The way this draft class looks, it would surprise me if the Pats exit day 2 without a CB and WR. There are interesting prospects at DT, but I'm not sure what the Pats are looking for (if anything).

I don't see a 3-down DE available to the Pats so I see that position as being a value play late (a TBC slider...possibly Taylor, Goodman, Edwards, Kruger). If McCourty stays at safety, I'm not sure I see a pick there for the Pats. I don't think they are looking to flush Gregory, give up on Tavon or carry 6 safeties on the roster.

 

[manxman2601]

Have the same observation. People doing projections often ignore the humans making the draft decisions.

In the top 3rd of the 1st round, you have coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to put their mark on their team. Is a guard the difference maker they (and the press and fans) are looking for? Unlikely.

In the middle 3rd, you have coaches hoping to stop a downward spiral or coaches hoping to take the next step into the playoffs. It is unlikely (though not unprecedented) that a guard is the one, visible acquisition needed to accomplish that.

The bottom 3rd is the place to look. There are likely one or two of the playoff teams that would identify an elite interior OL as the primary need to get them over the top or keep them there.

You don't have to draft a scrub to get accused of screwing up a first round pick. You just have to pass on a "splash" guy that does extremely well. If your job as a coach/GM is on the line, hanging your hat on a guard and then not winning more games the next year is a huge risk.

I've seen Warmack/Cooper associated with the Cards, Titans and Chargers. I could easily see all them looking elsewhere during the draft. The Rams at 16 is where I would see the first strong consideration of Warmack...though they really need to get a weapon at WR. The Cowboys (18), Bears (20) and Rams (22) is the area most likely to target Warmack and Cooper. If one or both of them escape this block, there is little to stop them from slipping to the Pats at 29. Obviously pending a trade-up...but devoting multiple high picks on a guard is an even more risky proposition.

Don't bet on the Rams. I'm sure I've read that Jeff Fisher has never drafted a first round OL.

 

[bagwell368]

There sure as hell better be some starters among the draft class! The Patriots have a critical need at WR...

Doubtful we draft a starter at WR. There is plenty of time for FA's and camp cuts to be picked up, even a trade. Finally of course there is AH moving to slot and/or WR.

 

[bagwell368]

I see us trading the first pick down, and trying to increase our picks in the 2nd-4th round.

With those I see 4 of these six positions being drafted: S, CB, DT, WR, coverage LB, G/C.

If we trade Mallett, then we'll draft a QB too, but won't go into the season with 3 QB's on the roster.

S. As much as I like A. Wilson for in the box SS and coverage LB, he may not even make the team or last long. I'm also not crazy about Gregory, or our 5th S. So I see a number of UDFA, FA, camp cuts, and a pick brought to camp to challenge both. I'm a big Cyprien booster and see him going from 34-42 range. There are a number of good sized FS than can play both going 2nd-5th round to replace/move Gregory down the roster.

DT. We'll need a starting level one no later than next year. So the top pick could be of a DT, but the real good ones figure to be gone and the others don't put pressure or will take a year or two to develop. Unclear.

CB. We need another CB, there are some nice ones on the board in the mid 2nd through the early 4th.

WR. There are several project types in the 2nd and 3rd. Unlikely to be major contributors in year 1. Rather resign Lloyd and Edelman cheap to get immediate help.

G. We'll need one when we cut Mankins next year or year after, and two when Connolly fades (unless Cannon gets moves to RG). Could start building for that now. If we start with a good one now, we could cut Connolly go with a rotation of the new guy and Cannon - but we'll need a back-up C, and have to pay our C nice money when he's a FA next year too.