Little chance any draftee will be a starter...

[cstjohn17]

As usual the Patriots are in a position where the draft is just gravy. Outside of WR the team has all it's starters in place. Even at WR it is unlikely a draft pick even a 1st rounder will take over a starting position.

So they should be able to draft for quality and add depth next year with an eye on potential starters down the road. Should be fun to watch the final roster come together.

Sketches of roster
My view
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApWRaF25BKdAdHV6ZXlIMnNBQ3FNQXNhc0IweWJ6bUE&usp=sharing

View from Boston.com
Resetting the Patriots' needs-based depth chart - Extra Points - Boston.com

 

[Metaphors]

As usual the Patriots are in a position where the draft is just gravy. Outside of WR the team has all it's starters in place. Even at WR it is unlikely a draft pick even a 1st rounder will take over a starting position.

Generally agree with you but I would approach the scenario from a different perspective. Are there any players the Pats could realistically draft that would get starter minutes in year 1? Looking at it by position:

QB, TE, OT - Obviously not
RB - Not a dominant RB class to be able to displace established players
WR - Plenty of players that could end up starting opposite DA
OG - Cooper would start day 1 moving Connolly back to C
DT - Richardson and Hankins would start or get major minutes. Potentially a couple of others as well (Short, SylvesterW, even Logan) though less likely
DE - Hard to see anyone getting starter minutes year 1
LB - Same
CB - There are a boatload of candidates here.
S - Not if McCourty stays at S (and he should)

So I could see the interior lines seeing new starters from this draft, but it would require a 1st round pick and potentially having a specific player slide. Outside the numbers, I could see a new starter on both offense and defense without trying very hard. For example, if the Pats draft Rhodes/Trufant and a receiver like Hunter/Hopkins, could you see them playing less than 50% of the snaps behind the current crew?

 

[mgteich]

Some nitpicks

OG I don't think that the pats could realistically draft Cooper. He is a top 15 pick.

WR I agree with you. There are lots that could start over our current #2.

CB I'm not sure that Belichick would start "boatloads" over Dennard and Talib.

CONCLUSION: We should look at DT's, WR's and CB's. We also might look to the future and consider a DE and/or S.

Generally agree with you but I would approach the scenario from a different perspective. Are there any players the Pats could realistically draft that would get starter minutes in year 1? Looking at it by position:

QB, TE, OT - Obviously not
RB - Not a dominant RB class to be able to displace established players
WR - Plenty of players that could end up starting opposite DA
OG - Cooper would start day 1 moving Connolly back to C
DT - Richardson and Hankins would start or get major minutes. Potentially a couple of others as well (Short, SylvesterW, even Logan) though less likely
DE - Hard to see anyone getting starter minutes year 1
LB - Same
CB - There are a boatload of candidates here.
S - Not if McCourty stays at S (and he should)

So I could see the interior lines seeing new starters from this draft, but it would require a 1st round pick and potentially having a specific player slide. Outside the numbers, I could see a new starter on both offense and defense without trying very hard. For example, if the Pats draft Rhodes/Trufant and a receiver like Hunter/Hopkins, could you see them playing less than 50% of the snaps behind the current crew?

 

[Metaphors]

OG I don't think that the pats could realistically draft Cooper. He is a top 15 pick.

That is the current group-think, but guards can slide if the draft falls a certain way. He has a couple of key teams to get by (Fins, Dallas, Chicago) but they all have other pressing needs to address as well.

CB I'm not sure that Belichick would start "boatloads" over Dennard and Talib.

That was a stretch. But would it really surprise you if Ryan, McFadden or Simon (all guys the Pats could get in the 3rd) lined up opposite Talib for game #1? I'm a big Dennard guy (he was the one guy I got right in the draft game last year) and he should see plenty of snaps regardless, but that is an area where the Pats should have a pretty open competition.

CONCLUSION: We should look at DT's, WR's and CB's. We also might look to the future and consider a DE and/or S.

The way this draft class looks, it would surprise me if the Pats exit day 2 without a CB and WR. There are interesting prospects at DT, but I'm not sure what the Pats are looking for (if anything).

I don't see a 3-down DE available to the Pats so I see that position as being a value play late (a TBC slider...possibly Taylor, Goodman, Edwards, Kruger). If McCourty stays at safety, I'm not sure I see a pick there for the Pats. I don't think they are looking to flush Gregory, give up on Tavon or carry 6 safeties on the roster.

 

[manxman2601]

The way this draft class looks, it would surprise me if the Pats exit day 2 without a CB and WR. There are interesting prospects at DT, but I'm not sure what the Pats are looking for (if anything).

If FA and pre draft interest mean anything, 6-4 5-tech types (Vaughn Martin, Desmond Bryant, Marcus Spears).

 

[EwanSellars]

im hoping we pick up tank carradine, kawann short and one of patton or wheaton if we trade down this could be realistic but we would have to trade up to get all 3

 

[cstjohn17]

Contract length is another lens, from EspnBoston.com

Patriots roster by contract length - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[cstjohn17]

Sorry, one last thing. Even though most units are in pretty good shape there are still plenty of opportunities to move units from good to great, or good to dominant.

 

[BelichickFan]

WR and DT absolutely could be upgraded. WR speaks for itself and I'm confident that Belichick would upgrade the Love/Deaderick rotation in a second if he could.

I'd be willing to bet that RG is considered upgradeable (Connelly could compete at Center). MLB possible, I love what Spikes does (hit) but I hate what Spikes can't do (run). And LDE could be upgraded too with Nink becoming a role player.

 

[manxman2601]

WR and DT absolutely could be upgraded. WR speaks for itself and I'm confident that Belichick would upgrade the Love/Deaderick rotation in a second if he could.

I'd be willing to bet that RG is considered upgradeable (Connelly could compete at Center). MLB possible, I love what Spikes does (hit) but I hate what Spikes can't do (run). And LDE could be upgraded too with Nink becoming a role player.

And with Spikes and Ninko out of contract after next year.

 

[EwanSellars]

i think spikes is gonna ask for too much next year because he is so good at what he does but is a pretty one dimensional layer i think if we look at someone like arthur brown or khaseem greene they would for sure be in on passing downs but not sure if they would start or not i think someone like carradine woud start someone like kawann short would start cooper could start and any decent receiver would start

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

There sure as hell better be some starters among the draft class! The Patriots have a critical need at WR...

 

[captain stone]

...and one-gap DT, and Pass-Rusher, and outside CB, and cover OLB, and SS of the future, and OG/C, and Placekicker.

 

[Deus Irae]

WR
DE
DT
S
CB
ORG


Every one of those spots could see a rookie become a starter, IMO.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

There is this illusion that many fans suffer under that if a team fields the same team as the year before then they will have the same success. This is a fallacy; the team will be noticeably worse.

Each year a team needs infusion of new talent just to maintain its level of play. The Patriots FA period was resounding dud so the Patriot sure as hell better get some starters out of the draft or it will be a bleak year.

 

[Metaphors]

There is this illusion that many fans suffer under that if a team fields the same team as the year before then they will have the same success. This is a fallacy; the team will be noticeably worse.

Each year a team needs infusion of new talent just to maintain its level of play. The Patriots FA period was resounding dud so the Patriot sure as hell better get some starters out of the draft or it will be a bleak year.

It's evolution, baby!

 

[Metaphors]

The Patriots FA period was resounding dud so the Patriot sure as hell better get some starters out of the draft or it will be a bleak year.

I don't see the FA period being a dud. You may not agree with their game plan but they are executing it quite well. Look at the likely basis for their decisions:

- Unless Welker was willing to sign on our terms, totally willing to cut the cord and move on to a new direction for the final part of the Brady era.

- Amendola can effectively complement the TE-centric offense over the next 5 years...and is worth paying him to be a key piece (not necessarily THE key piece).

- Talib is a bridge player and will be willing to stay for 1 more year at reasonable money.

- Vollmer is a top RT in the league but needs to stay healthy to realize that. He will re-sign with us (don't need to franchise) and accept incentives. We will structure his contract once FA plays out a little and we have a better idea of our financial situation.

- Arrington's contributions warrant a contract paying him as a top nickel corner and top ST coverage guy.

- Adrian Wilson has the ability on the field and in the locker room to stabilize the back end of the defense.

- Besides paying for vet minimum reclamation and ST guys, keep the remaining cap space powder dry waiting out later opportunities (DE, ESanders, etc)

I have to say that I agree with just about all of that. I wouldn't have gone the extra mile for Arrington, but I can see why they would. Assuming they get a vet DE on the cheap, the Pats will only have a couple of needs (and not desperate ones) at WR and CB. Ain't it a fine coincidence that those 2 positions look to be extremely deep in this draft class?

It should come as no surprise that the Pats have a plan and are executing it methodically. So instead of categorizing the FA period (the execution) as a dud, it is probably more on target to criticize their talent evaluation and team-building philosophy. I wouldn't do that, but I could see why some people would.

 

[Sciz]

The Patriots FA period was resounding dud so the Patriot sure as hell better get some starters out of the draft or it will be a bleak year.

Who are all of these free agents that the Pats should have paid enough to come play for them?

 

[Deus Irae]

There is this illusion that many fans suffer under that if a team fields the same team as the year before then they will have the same success. This is a fallacy; the team will be noticeably worse.

Each year a team needs infusion of new talent just to maintain its level of play. The Patriots FA period was resounding dud so the Patriot sure as hell better get some starters out of the draft or it will be a bleak year.

The FA period, to date, has been a resounding dud. There's a big difference. There are going to be free agents hitting the streets until the end of training camp. The team screwed up the Welker situation, and they've not fixed any problems from last season unless Wilson somehow bounces back as a cover safety, but the offseason isn't finished yet.

And the defense is very young which means that more players should be improving than declining.

 

[borg]

SI.com cover story speculates DE Tank Carradine may be getting some NE love. ACL injury...rehabbing now with same trainer that AP used. Shadow roster candidate