Best guess at our Comp picks

[FreeTedWilliams]

I was surfing the net and came across a couple of KFFL posters who have come up with a decent formula for projecting the comp picks that the NFL awards. They seem to be pretty close ever year, so I thought I would try to project the Pats comp picks for this year.

Their basic formula goes mostly by how much the players are getting paid per year (salary + signing bonus), with smaller factors such as playing time and post season honors (Pro-Bowl) counting much less.


So the Patriots signed
Reche Caldwell 1.3 million/yr
Mel Mitchell 856,000/yr

and lost
David Givens Texans 4.8 million/yr
Tom Ashworth Seahawks 2.6 million/yr
Adam Vinateri Colts 2.4 millon/yr
Andre Davis Bills 1.3 million/yr
Christian Fauria Redskins 1 million/yr
Tim Dwight Jets 875,000/yr
Matt Chatham Jets 585,000/yr (could not find the amount of his signing bonus so this amount should actually fo up)


last year the comp picks were awarded for the following salaries and rounds
3rd round- 5.167 mil/yr +
4th round- 4.16-5.5 mil/yr
5th round- 2.6-3.5 mil/yr
6th round- 1.97-2.9 mil/yr
7th round- 1.75-585,000/yr

As you can see the amount overlap, so they must take into effect playing time and post season honors. Assuming inflation these amounts will go up this year. So I project the following:

So if you cancel out Caldwell with Andre Davis, and Mitchell with Dwight, that leaves the following players and compensation:

Givens 4.8 mil/yr (IR after week 5)- 4th round

Vinateri 2.4 mil/yr (16 games) - 5th round (highest paid kicker, former pro bowler)

Ashworth 2.6 mil/yr (games played 16/ games started 6)-6th round

Possible extra pick:
Chatham 585,000 + unknown SB (started 16 games)- 7th round

I know that Jonathan Kraft is crying for a third round comp, but I just can't see it happening, especially if you consider that Givens got hurt.

Fauria only played in 9 games and had only 2 receptions, so I don't think that the Pats will get compensated for him or Michael Stone.

Other fun facts about the comp picks that I learned:
The NFL gives out 32 comp picks every year
The max picks any one team can get is 4
After the NFL figures out what comp picks are to be awarded using the FA loss/gained formula, the remaining comp picks left are awarded as if there was an 8th round of the draft. So say the NFL figures that it has to award 28 comp picks, it will automatically give the remaining 4 picks as 7th round comp picks to the teams with the worst records in this years case Oakland, Detriot, CLeveland, Tampa Bay, etc.

 

[cstjohn17]

Good stuff Ted, do you need a hat? I don't want your ears to get cold.

What is truly amazing is that I find this stuff interesting... In my head I had guessed 5,5,6... the more picks the better

What about Wille McGinnest? that could be another 6... I hope we use some of the picks to move around and take specific players or trade them for 08 picks. I don't see a need for 10-12 draft picks with only 7-8 having realistic chances to make the roster.

 

[Remix 6]

Givens isnt a Texan

 

[spacecrime]

What about Wille McGinnest? that could be another 6...

WMG doesn't count. He was cut, not a FA.

 

[patpatriot]

What is behind J Kraft's belief that the pats will get a compensatory 3rd rd pick? I heard him says that was what he expected in a radio interview (Felger)? Wishfull thinking/politicing or realistic assessment? You guestimates are fine IMHO. That would give us:

Rd 1:
24 & 28

RD 2:
60

Rd 3:
92

Rd 4:
124
129 (comp)

Rd 5:
161 (comp)

Rd 6:
166 (Az trade)
193 (comp)

RD 7
220
225 (comp)

Add a mid-50s pick for Samuel and you've got quite a haul!

 

[patpatriot]

Here's some possible choices around the pats draft positions based on GBN and Foxsports:

24:

# *Darrelle Revis CB 5-11,190 Pittsburgh
# *Lawrence Timmons LB 6-3, 230 Florida State
# Adam Carriker DE 6-5, 290 Nebraska
# *Jon Beason LB 6-0, 230 Miami
# *Robert Meacham WR 6-2, 205 Tennessee
# Ryan Kalil C 6-4, 291 Southern California

28:

# Ryan Kalil C 6-4, 291 Southern California
# *Zach Miller TE 6-5, 260 Arizona State
# Anthony Spencer DE 6-3, 265 Purdue
# Brandon Meriweather FS 5-11, 190 Miami
# Quinn Pit**** DT 6-3, 301 Ohio State
# Michael Griffin FS 5-11, 195 Texas

92:

# Ben Grubbs OG 6-3, 315 Auburn
# Ryan McBean DT 6-5, 278 Oklahoma State
# Justin Durant LB 6-1, 230 Hampton
# Joe Newton TE 6-7, 260 Oregon State
# Sabby Piscitelli SS 6-3, 225 Oregon State
# Ilaika Alama-Francis DE 6-5, 255 Hawaii
# Manny Ramirez OG 6-3, 335 Texas Tech


124

Paul Williams WR 6-1, 200 Fresno State
Steve Smith WR 6-0, 195 Southern California
Noland Burchette DE 6-4, 260 Virginia Tech
Kelvin Smith LB 6-2, 235 Syracuse
Corey Hilliard OG 6-5, 315 Oklahoma State
David Clowney WR 6-0, 180 Virginia Tech

129 (comp)

# J.D. Nelson FS 6-0, 215 Orgon
# *Ryan Smith CB 5-10, 170 Florida
# Cory Anderson FB 6-2, 265 Tennessee
# Desmond Bishop LB 6-1, 240 California
# Justin Warren LB 6-2, 245 Texas A&M
# Kenny Scott CB 6-1, 175 Georgia Tech
# Clark Harris TE 6-5, 255 Rutgers

161 (comp)

Kevin Boss TE
Joel Filani WR
Daniel Sepulveda P
Jeff Samardzija WR Notre Dame
Cory Anderson FB Tennessee
Justin Hickman OLB UCLA 6-1 260 4.74

Rd 6:
166 (Az trade)

Tim Duckworth OG Auburn 6-3 305 5.38
Chase Pittman DE LSU 6-5 272 4.84
Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska 5-11 210 4.49
Justin Medlock K UCLA 6-0 198 4.89
Brandon Harrison SS Stanford 6-2 215 4.58
Danny Ware RB Georgia 6-1 223 4.58

193 (comp)

Matt Trannon WR Michigan State 6-6 232 4.67
Quincy Black OLB New Mexico 6-2 228 4.69
Gary Russell RB Minnesota 5-11 195 4.49
David Patterson DT Ohio State 6-2 274 4.94
Keith Jackson DT Arkansas 6-0 295 4.99
Allen Barbre OT Missouri Southern State 6-4 302 4.98
Cameron Stephenson OG Rutgers 6-5 305 5.28 6
Scott Stephenson C Iowa State 6-4 305 5.23



RD 7
220

Uche Nwaneri OG Purdue 6-3 305 5.30
Kyle Young C Fresno State 6-5 328 5.34
Steve Rissler OG Florida 6-3 305 5.26
Herb Taylor OT TCU 6-4 292 5.08
Jeff Rowe QB Nevada 6-5 225 4.85
Dallas Sartz OLB Southern Cal 6-5 238 4.69
C.J. Gaddis FS Clemson 6-0 210 4.48
Gerald Alexander FS Boise State 6-0 205 4.56

225 (comp)

Craig Dahl SS North Dakota State 6-1 212 4.53
Zach Latimer ILB Oklahoma 6-1 235 4.77
Derek Schouman FB Boise State 6-2 234 4.64
Joe Anoai DT Georgia Tech 6-3 288 4.96
Michael Allan TE Whitworth 6-6 252 4.69
Xzavie Jackson DE Missouri 6-3 283 4.79
Selvin Young RB Texas 5-11 215 4.57
Joe Cohen DT Florida 6-2 290 4.84
Dan Mozes C West Virginia 6-3 300 5.26

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think we absolutely have to draft Manny Ramirez!!

I will buy the jeresy tommorrow!!

Then we can take bets on how long it takes Manny to realize that they are not talking about him during Patriot games.

 

[BradyManny]

I think we absolutely have to draft Manny Ramirez!!

I will buy the jeresy tommorrow!!

Then we can take bets on how long it takes Manny to realize that they are not talking about him during Patriot games.

LOL, we gotta draft Manny Ramirez. I don't care if it's for the good of the team or not.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Here's some possible choices around the pats draft positions based on GBN and Foxsports:

24:
28:
92:

What about 60?

 

[SamBamsFan]

Looking @ the major free agent signings @/ or above David Givens' AAV:

A Archuletta STL $5.3M/yr
L Bentley NO $6M/yr
D Brees SD $10M/yr
N Burleson MIN $7M/yr
A Carter SF $6M/yr
S Hutchinson SEA $7M/yr
D Howard NO $5.08M/yr
E James IND $7.5M/yr
J Peterson SF $7.71M/yr
A Randal-El PIT $5.5M/yr
D Thornton IND $4.6M/yr
B Williams MIN $6.33M/yr

Did I forget anyone?

 

[SamBamsFan]

“last year (2006) the comp picks were awarded for the following salaries and rounds
3rd round- 5.167 mil/yr +
4th round- 4.16-5.5 mil/yr
5th round- 2.6-3.5 mil/yr
6th round- 1.97-2.9 mil/yr
7th round- 1.75-585,000/yr”

For 2007, I would guess that these numbers would go up substantially as the salary cap increased from $83M to $102M (or 22.89%). So adding this percentage this years numbers might look like this:
3rd round- 6.350 mil/yr +
4th round- 5.112-6.79 mil/yr
5th round- 3.195-4.301 mil/yr
6th round- 2.42-3.564 mil/yr
7th round- .719-2.15/yr

 

[DaBruinz]

Good stuff Ted, do you need a hat? I don't want your ears to get cold.

What is truly amazing is that I find this stuff interesting... In my head I had guessed 5,5,6... the more picks the better

What about Wille McGinnest? that could be another 6... I hope we use some of the picks to move around and take specific players or trade them for 08 picks. I don't see a need for 10-12 draft picks with only 7-8 having realistic chances to make the roster.

McGinest was cut and, therefore, is not eligible for compensation.

Also, Chatham isn't the highest paid loss that the Pats had after Givens, Ashworth and Vinatieri. Andre Davis, Tim Dwight, and Christian Fauria are. And two of those would off-set the signings of Mel Mitchell and Reche Caldwell.

Chatham was actually the lowest eligible FA that the Pats lost after Michael Stone, who falls below last year's low end threshold.

As for Vinatieri, did you get your info from AdamJT13? He's the one whose information I have used and based on that info, I had us pegged at 4,6,6,7 since September.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

That is the exact percentage the guys who I stole the formula from used in the past. They increased the comp numbers by the same percentage as the salary cap went up. So my Pats predictions may be a little high, and Jonathan's call for a thrid round pick looks even slimmer.

What you also must take into consideration is that the comp picks are awarded based on the totality of free agents signed versus the amount of free agents you lost.

On face vaule we can all assume that Bress (Chargers) & and James (Colts) would net their former teams 3rd round comp picks. However if you look at the FA signed, the case for the Chargers gets even better:

The Chargers lost:

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)
C Bob Hallen (Cleveland)
WR Reche Caldwell (New England)
TE Justin Peelle (Miami)
DE Dequincey Scott (Minnesota)
CB Jamar Fletcher (Detroit)
LB Ben Leber (Minnesota)
With Brees, Hallen, and Caldwell all being starters and Brees a former Pro-Bowl QB

The Chargers signed:
DB Marlon McCree (Carolina)
TE Aaron Shea (Cleveland)
DB Ray Walls (Arizona)
I don't think the signing of any of these guys will effect the loss of Bress, Hallen, and Caldwell. I fully expect the Chargers to get a thrid round pick and most likely 2 fourth round picks.

As for the Seahawks:
Hutchinson was a tagged as the Seahawks "Transition" player, (remember the posion pill pissing contest between Minnesota and Seattle) so Seattle gets NOTHING for losing him (ouch that hurts).
In addition the Seahawks signed both Julian Petersen and Ashworth so they will not get any comp picks.

As for the Colts:

They lost the "edge", Thorton, and Vanderjerk, and signed Vinateri. My guess is that they will get a 3rd round pick for the edge with the loss of Thorton and Vanderjerk, cancelling out the signing of Vinateri.


New Orleans lost Bentley, however they signed Brees so they will most likely not get any comp picks.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

McGinest was cut and, therefore, is not eligible for compensation.

Also, Chatham isn't the highest paid loss that the Pats had after Givens, Ashworth and Vinatieri. Andre Davis, Tim Dwight, and Christian Fauria are. And two of those would off-set the signings of Mel Mitchell and Reche Caldwell.

Chatham was actually the lowest eligible FA that the Pats lost after Michael Stone, who falls below last year's low end threshold.

As for Vinatieri, did you get your info from AdamJT13? He's the one whose information I have used and based on that info, I had us pegged at 4,6,6,7 since September.

I stole the formula from this guy:
http://lists.rollanet.org/pipermail/rampage/Week-of-Mon-20030310/042839.html

of course when you look at the bottom of the page I did get it from AdamJT13, I hadn't noticed that before.


It was his 2003 projection, I then found his 2006 version and updated the numbers.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

No team has ever received a comp pick when it signed more FAs than it lost, regardless of how little their signings offset their losses.

On rare occasions, a team has received a 7th when the numbers are the same, but there's a significant imbalance in quality. So for NO, + Brees - JAG = no comp pick.

The way I understand it, you can rank the eligible FAs based on average annual value of the contracts, apply whatever adjustments are made, and then start cancelling out contracts (team A lost this player . . . but signed this player; team B lost that player . . . but signed this one, etc.). The top 32 (if that many) left standing on the "departure" side result in comp picks.

 

[DaBruinz]

Looking @ the major free agent signings @/ or above David Givens' AAV:

A Archuletta STL $5.3M/yr
L Bentley NO $6M/yr
D Brees SD $10M/yr
N Burleson MIN $7M/yr
A Carter SF $6M/yr
S Hutchinson SEA $7M/yr
D Howard NO $5.08M/yr
E James IND $7.5M/yr
J Peterson SF $7.71M/yr
A Randal-El PIT $5.5M/yr
D Thornton IND $4.6M/yr
B Williams MIN $6.33M/yr

Did I forget anyone?

One thing, I don't believe that teams who lose Franchise and Transition players are eligible for the UFA Compensation formula. So that would rule out Burleson.

Also, You have to take into consideration how players rule eachother out.

What players did St. Louis sign?

We know that Seattle Signed Peterson and lost Hutchinson.
We know that San Fran lost Andre Carter and Julian Peterson. Who did they sign?

New Orleans lost LeCharles Bently and Darren Howard, but signed Drew Brees. Who else did they sign?

Minnesota Signed Hutchinson and lost Brian Williams.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That is the exact percentage the guys who I stole the formula from used in the past. They increased the comp numbers by the same percentage as the salary cap went up. So my Pats predictions may be a little high, and Jonathan's call for a thrid round pick looks even slimmer.

What you also must take into consideration is that the comp picks are awarded based on the totality of free agents signed versus the amount of free agents you lost.

On face vaule we can all assume that Bress (Chargers) & and James (Colts) would net their former teams 3rd round comp picks. However if you look at the FA signed, the case for the Chargers gets even better:

The Chargers lost:

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)
C Bob Hallen (Cleveland)
WR Reche Caldwell (New England)
TE Justin Peelle (Miami)
DE Dequincey Scott (Minnesota)
CB Jamar Fletcher (Detroit)
LB Ben Leber (Minnesota)
With Brees, Hallen, and Caldwell all being starters and Brees a former Pro-Bowl QB

The Chargers signed:
DB Marlon McCree (Carolina)
TE Aaron Shea (Cleveland)
DB Ray Walls (Arizona)
I don't think the signing of any of these guys will effect the loss of Bress, Hallen, and Caldwell. I fully expect the Chargers to get a thrid round pick and most likely 2 fourth round picks.

The fact that Caldwell started for the Pats is far less important than his salary of (just) $1.3M/year. If they get anything for Caldwell, it'll be a 7th. [How sweet would it be if the Pats ended up with the Mr. Irrelevant pick, so SD would be SOL on getting 7th rounders? ]

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

One thing, I don't believe that teams who lose Franchise and Transition players are eligible for the UFA Compensation formula. So that would rule out Burleson.

Also, You have to take into consideration how players rule eachother out.

What players did St. Louis sign?

We know that Seattle Signed Peterson and lost Hutchinson.
We know that San Fran lost Andre Carter and Julian Peterson. Who did they sign?

New Orleans lost LeCharles Bently and Darren Howard, but signed Drew Brees. Who else did they sign?

Minnesota Signed Hutchinson and lost Brian Williams.

I have been using this page from GBN

http://www.gbnreport.com/2006freeagentscoreboard.html

It's a great draft site.

 

[DaBruinz]

No team has ever received a comp pick when it signed more FAs than it lost, regardless of how little their signings offset their losses.

On rare occasions, a team has received a 7th when the numbers are the same, but there's a significant imbalance in quality. So for NO, + Brees - JAG = no comp pick.

The way I understand it, you can rank the eligible FAs based on average annual value of the contracts, apply whatever adjustments are made, and then start cancelling out contracts (team A lost this player . . . but signed this player; team B lost that player . . . but signed this one, etc.). The top 32 (if that many) left standing on the "departure" side result in comp picks.

New Orleans lost more than just a JAG. They lost LeCharles Bentley and Darren Howard. That's a little more than "just a jag"

 

[DaBruinz]

I have been using this page from GBN

http://www.gbnreport.com/2006freeagentscoreboard.html

It's a great draft site.

Yes, Great Blue North is good for lost of things. And thanks for the scoreboard. That will help people to see where players are offset when it comes to draft pick compensation.