Projecting 2013 free agent contracts

[patfanken]

Tom Brady will rue the day he extended his contract when his starting wide
receivers are Slater and Edleman. BB will concentrate on signing a few
over the hill guys like Reed and Hillis.

STOP IT, just stop it. You're starting to sound like a spoiled child. Nothing like that is going to happen and YOU know it. Christ you sound like Fox News before a 6" snow storm. "How will we SURVIVE!?" The fact is that regardless of who are our starting WR's (and Slater worn't be one of them) the Pats are going to be a top 5 passing attack. Hell we were 11th best with Caldwell, Gaffney and Brown back in 06 (7th best scoring O)

BUCK UP, man. You have no idea how the WR position will end iup.

 

[patfanken]

I understand your point, but you may be mixing up the name of your second player. Did you mean to say "Hillis?" As in Peyton Hillis, the failed RB/FB? If so, there's no way that's going to happen, especially with our RB situation being great at the moment. We have Ridley who carried for 1250 or so yds, Vereen in the wings as a 3rd down back, Bolden as a bruiser, Demps as an olympic track star and former RB at Florida, and still have the possibility of signing Danny Woodhead--who caught 40 balls out of the backfield last year.

A player like Ed Reed/Charles Woodson etc may very well be over the hill, but can also offer the kind of experience and leadership in the back end of the secondary until our high 2nd round pick Tavon Wilson is ready to take over. Stability in the safety position is sorely needed. I have no problem whatsover if they bring in one of those guys at that position, or on the DL/OL too. It's the other positions such as bringing in older WRs/RBs/CBs that have failed us recently.

Not so fast, Supe, I'm thinking the Pats are going to want a big short yardage RB/FB on the roster this year, and quite frankly, Peyton Hillis, at the vet minimum,would be an excellent choice I really didn't think were were as effective in those short yardage/GL situations as we have been in the past and it might have been the reason we passed the ball so often on on those 3rd and 2 situations, that frustrated me so much. If the Pats end up moving on from Danny Woodhead, Hillis would make an solid choice that the #5RB.

 

[Jimke]

STOP IT, just stop it. You're starting to sound like a spoiled child. Nothing like that is going to happen and YOU know it. Christ you sound like Fox News before a 6" snow storm. "How will we SURVIVE!?" The fact is that regardless of who are our starting WR's (and Slater worn't be one of them) the Pats are going to be a top 5 passing attack. Hell we were 11th best with Caldwell, Gaffney and Brown back in 06 (7th best scoring O)

BUCK UP, man. You have no idea how the WR position will end iup.

Wow! At 81, I take it as a compliment to be called a spoiled child.

 

[patfanken]

any team can get almost any player they want... there are loopholes in the cap system. back load it..signing bonus ect

Pats could sign dashon and back load his contract and give him a big signing bonus ect

You are absolutely correct....up to a point. The Flacco deal shows how much a team can back load a deal with cap numbers of $7 and $13MM the next 2 years, on a deal that averages over $20MM/yr. So sure the Pats could sign all 3 of their big FA's to top of the market deals and still be fine with the cap....THIS year, and maybe next. But what about beyond that.

To make that kind of management decision they would be making a conscious choice to put a finite limit to the consistent level of excellence we've had for the last 12 years in order to chase a risky short term goal.

I'm not saying they SHOULDN'T do it. I certainly could be done. You could easily sign all 3 of our guys to deals that would carry a combined cap number of under $10MM next year and still have plenty of money to sign an Ed Reed and/or Dwight Freeney or their type of veteran presence that is sorely needed by this young defense.....and still have money left over to resign Edelman, Arrington, etc

But if they chose to do that, the end result in 2015 or 16 will be a team that will have to undergo a massive turnover in order to clear cap space, and we could be looking at a season like in 2000 when they had to do the same thing. And you do this knowing that, even then, winning the Lombardi is no sure thing.

The other Strategy is to continue on like we are doing. Constantly in the mix at the end of the year, and who knows, perhaps WE will be the hot team, the one that gets the breaks and bounces, and winds up winning it all.

 

[patfanken]

Wow! At 81, I take it as a compliment to be called a spoiled child.

Pardon me then. Let me amend that to "cranky old man"

 

[Gronkandez]

Tom Brady will rue the day he extended his contract when his starting wide
receivers are Slater and Edleman. BB will concentrate on signing a few
over the hill guys like Reed and Hillis.

Luckily he has two of the top five receiving Tight Ends in the NFL. And Slater will not be a WR. I'd rather resign Reche Caldwell and Ocho than play him. They'll be fine...I think.

 

[ralmat55]

You are absolutely correct....up to a point. The Flacco deal shows how much a team can back load a deal with cap numbers of $7 and $13MM the next 2 years, on a deal that averages over $20MM/yr. So sure the Pats could sign all 3 of their big FA's to top of the market deals and still be fine with the cap....THIS year, and maybe next. But what about beyond that.

To make that kind of management decision they would be making a conscious choice to put a finite limit to the consistent level of excellence we've had for the last 12 years in order to chase a risky short term goal.

I'm not saying they SHOULDN'T do it. I certainly could be done. You could easily sign all 3 of our guys to deals that would carry a combined cap number of under $10MM next year and still have plenty of money to sign an Ed Reed and/or Dwight Freeney or their type of veteran presence that is sorely needed by this young defense.....and still have money left over to resign Edelman, Arrington, etc

But if they chose to do that, the end result in 2015 or 16 will be a team that will have to undergo a massive turnover in order to clear cap space, and we could be looking at a season like in 2000 when they had to do the same thing. And you do this knowing that, even then, winning the Lombardi is no sure thing.

The other Strategy is to continue on like we are doing. Constantly in the mix at the end of the year, and who knows, perhaps WE will be the hot team, the one that gets the breaks and bounces, and winds up winning it all.

To illustrate, if Wes Welker signed a 4 yr $32 million dollar contact with a $12 million signing bonus, his 2013 cap figure could be as low as $4 million ($3 million prorated bonus and $1 million salary-round up of vet minimum).

Teams can and do get themselves in trouble by back loading cap hits, but my opinion is if you're comfortable the player will play out his contract with you than it's worth doing. Therefore, I'd do it for Welker but not so much for Talib or Vollmer because of their character and health issues respectively. Dead money is the cap killer.

 

[Coog548]

Michael Bennett (5/36) Bucs

Sign me up. He is the least talked about player who is young and could compliment Jones on the other side. I can't believe the hype the guy in Baltimore is getting compared to this guy.

 

[supafly]

Not so fast, Supe, I'm thinking the Pats are going to want a big short yardage RB/FB on the roster this year, and quite frankly, Peyton Hillis, at the vet minimum,would be an excellent choice I really didn't think were were as effective in those short yardage/GL situations as we have been in the past and it might have been the reason we passed the ball so often on on those 3rd and 2 situations, that frustrated me so much. If the Pats end up moving on from Danny Woodhead, Hillis would make an solid choice that the #5RB.

Maybe it is more of a possibility than I am giving credit to, I just see a lot of other priorities before we'd get to the position of RB to be honest with you. Like Sciz mentioned, reportedly McDaniels moved Hillis out of town for hitting on his wife, so we have to take that into account if it's true.

I'm thinking that some of the failures with the shorter yrdg situations could be chalked up to failed blocking, rather than our specific RBs. Between Ridley and Bolden we should have enough strength to pick those situations up. I'd imagine that you may be right that at least another RB or two will be brought in for camp fodder, I just didn't personally see much need for another RB. I guess the Woodhead situation will help to shape that too on some level.

 

[Wretch]

I stumbled across this and thought I would share, as there seems to be much debate (as there is every year) on how much free agents will sign for, what it will take to sign or re-sign certain players, etc.

It is from Evan Silva, who is forecasting what the top 50 free agents will sign for; he's also forecasting where they will sign.

Top 50 Free Agent Forecast | Evan Silva | Rotoworld

Silva lists the following:

- Aqib Talib: 4 years, $30 million
- Sebastian Vollmer: 5 years, $36 million
- Wes Welker: 3 years, $27 million.


Projections for plenty of other free agents that are garnering much discussion as well; among them:
- Paul Kruger (5/60)
- Michael Bennett (5/36)
- Dwight Freeney (2/10)
- Dashon Goldson (5/42)
- Sean Smith (4/32)
- Brent Grimes (1/7.5)
- Ed Reed (1/5.5) ... with the Pats

- Mike Wallace (4/50)
- Greg Jennings (4/25)
- Danny Amendola (3/18.5)

It might be interesting to look at free agent contracts a little differently. Rather than looking it as X years/Y millions, I was wondering if it might be more useful to look it as what percentage of available salary dollars will the free agents get.

I was looking at some salary cap numbers for 2014 and there is approximately $500 million dollars in available in salary cap space in the NFL not taking into account franchise tags or potential cuts/restructures like Carson Palmer ($13M cap hit in 2014).

So if you look at the annual averages the projected salaries above.
Talib: $7.5M/year, 1.5% of Total 2014 Cap Space
Vollmer: $7.2M, 1.4%
Welker: $9M, 1.8%
Kruger: $12M, 2.4%
Bennett: $7.2M, 1.4%
Freeney: $5M, 1%
Goldson: $8.4M, 1.7%
Smith: $8M, 1.6%
Grimes: $7.5M, 1.5%
Reed: $5.5M, 1.1%

Total: $77.3M or 15.5% of total available cap space for 2014.

Not sure what those numbers mean but I thought it was an interesting way to look at free agent contracts.

 

[mgteich]

One cranky old man to another,

You're presuming that Belichick will screw Brady and not bother to sign solid wide receivers.
That's NOT going to happen. We will be a top 5 passing team this year.

I suspect that we will be spending considerable $$ on our 3-8 free agent wide receivers.

I would note that unless Welker is re-signed, the top two receiving targets will be Gronkowski and Hernandez, almost no matter who we sign for under ten million a year.

Tom Brady will rue the day he extended his contract when his starting wide
receivers are Slater and Edleman. BB will concentrate on signing a few
over the hill guys like Reed and Hillis.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

I like Evan Silva because he is a decent writer and last year in a couple of weeks during the season correctly predicted a few patriots players to have good weeks,especially for fantasy stats.

He now makes a bold prediction article predicting the top 100 Free Agent players and the teams and contracts they will sign for.

I don't agree with Silva that this team will sign all 3 major pieces in Welker,Vollmer and Talib and I also don't think they will not sign any other notable Free Agent either like Silva thinks.

Silva predicts the Patriots to resign all 3 with contracts as follows...

Welker 3 years $22M
Vollmer 5 years $30M
Talib 4 years $27.5M

IMO That would create little room against the cap should anything resembling those 3 contracts come about


Top 100 Free Agency Forecast - Free Agency Update - Rotoworld.com

 

[mgteich]

Re: Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

Their cap hits could average $6M, leaving us over $7M in cap room.

I like Evan Silva because he is a decent writer and last year in a couple of weeks during the season correctly predicted a few patriots players to have good weeks,especially for fantasy stats.

He now makes a bold prediction article predicting the top 100 Free Agent players and the teams and contracts they will sign for.

I don't agree with Silva that this team will sign all 3 major pieces in Welker,Vollmer and Talib and I also don't think they will not sign any other notable Free Agent either like Silva thinks.

Silva predicts the Patriots to resign all 3 with contracts as follows...

Welker 3 years $22M
Vollmer 5 years $30M
Talib 4 years $27.5M

IMO That would create little room against the cap should anything resembling those 3 contracts come about


Top 100 Free Agency Forecast - Free Agency Update - Rotoworld.com

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Re: Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

Pats will need more playmakers than those 3 with another CB and a S with a WR

 

[Claremonster]

Re: Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

Yeah, another superbowless year!

No way would be in favor of this, unless they sign for bargains. Which, won't be the case.

A better team is needed.

 

[supafly]

Re: Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

Their cap hits could average $6M, leaving us over $7M in cap room.

Silva predicts the Patriots to resign all 3 with contracts as follows...

Welker 3 years $22M
Vollmer 5 years $30M
Talib 4 years $27.5M

IMO That would create little room against the cap should anything resembling those 3 contracts come about


Top 100 Free Agency Forecast - Free Agency Update - Rotoworld.com

First of all, I would much rather sacrifice one of Talib/Vollmer to resign some of the lesser known role players such as Woodhead, Arrington, Edelman, and Thomas IF it came down to it (it shouldn't...but that's what I'd prefer if the decision had to be made). 2-3 of those role players together are just as important as one of Talib/Vollmer in my opinion. Others may disagree.

Secondly, I would again sacrifice one of Talib/Vollmer if it meant we were able to go out and make some needed moves in other areas. I don't want to resign all 3 of these guys if it means we'd be strapped for any other decent moves. mgteich points out that we could still have 6-7 million, but that isn't enough in my opinion to make the necessary additions.

Thirdly, how much cap space we'd have left after these 3 moves would obviously depend on the 2013 year one cap hit for each individual player. For example, Miami just re-signed Hartline for the exact same deal that Silva predicts Vollmer will get at 5/30, but Hartline's year one cap hit was only approx. 2 million dollars. That was made up by being raised to 6 the next year, and 7.5 for the 3 years after, so it's certainly doable.

I don't personally see Talib:

a. being offered a longer term 4 yr deal here in NE

b. warranting 7 million dollars aav in the process

I would also think that the Welker aav would be pretty much spot on, but the 3/22 may be kind of low--especially if he is wanting guarantees in the high teens/early 20's as is rumored. I doubt he'd have a 3 yr pact with almost 100% of the contract guaranteed. I think we'd need at least a 4 yr deal myself.

 

[Water Boy]

Re: Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

I know these are only predictions, but I was surprised by how many FAs he expects to sign with new teams. A head scratcher for me was James Harrison to Baltimore.

 

[Hok]

Re: Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

Their cap hits could average $6M, leaving us over $7M in cap room.

We need to remember that the average cap hit is not the cap hit that occurs every year - in fact, the first year cap hit is almost always a good deal lower due to bonus money being spread out and the salaries being structured to increase over the life of the contract to match a rising cap. So three $7 million a year average cap hit contracts would probably only count $10-15 million against the cap this year, not $21 million.

 

[DarrylS]

Re: Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

Yeah, another superbowless year!

No way would be in favor of this, unless they sign for bargains. Which, won't be the case.

A better team is needed.

That make me smile.. one of the perennial top 4 teams every year in the NFL and a better team is needed??

Wonder what is would be like on this board if our local team was Oakland, Cleveland or Minnesota??

 

[patsfan-1982]

Re: Evan Silva predicts the top 100 FA signings .... Pats sign all 3 of their own

i think Vollmer will be back, maybe Welker will re-sign when he sees that other teams are not offering much more the the pats but i think Talib is gone