Aqib Talib and long term commitment

[supafly]

Is it that we are so adamant in getting a corner that we are not only ignoring Talib's risk factors but also overrating his contributions? Personally I think people overrated his play during the season because it gave them hope the defense was 'fixed'.

It's obvious to me that the defense was "fixed" by the following moves:

McCourty to safety

Arrington to the slot

Dennard as a starting outside CB

The removal of Chung

There are 4 main factors that allowed the secondary to improve. People forget that there are plenty of ways to add extra talent and improve upon the position, and that scheme itself is often a big factor. Another player or players can add to the CB role to improve on the position, and the same goes for safety too. Talib is not anywhere near as important as people are trying to make it out to be.

This is a secondary that somehow held E.Manning to 19 offensive pts in the SB loss: McCourty, Molden, S.Moore, Arrington, Chung, Ihedigbo. I think that we can certainly improve upon some aspects while not going overboard for a mediocre player who will cost way too much. This shouldn't even be 1/2 of the debate that it has become in my opinion.

 

[Ring 6]

It's obvious to me that the defense was "fixed" by the following moves:

McCourty to safety

Arrington to the slot

Dennard as a starting outside CB

The removal of Chung

There are 4 main factors that allowed the secondary to improve. People forget that there are plenty of ways to add extra talent and improve upon the position, and that scheme itself is often a big factor. Another player or players can add to the CB role to improve on the position, and the same goes for safety too. Talib is not anywhere near as important as people are trying to make it out to be.

This is a secondary that somehow held E.Manning to 19 offensive pts in the SB loss: McCourty, Molden, S.Moore, Arrington, Chung, Ihedigbo. I think that we can certainly improve upon some aspects while not going overboard for a mediocre player who will cost way too much. This shouldn't even be 1/2 of the debate that it has become in my opinion.

See,I think we want to believe that, but if you really look on the field, what convinces you? The Houston game is a big positive, but we were worse vs SF than in any other game all year.
Our defense was really good (better I think, but didn't look up) late in 2011 than this year, so preception may not be reality.

EDIT: I thought you were including Talib in there, so my point would then be agreeing with, not disagreeing with you, although we need a better starting corner than Arrington or safety duo than Gregory and Wilson.

 

[supafly]

LOWEST COST FIX TO BOTH POSITIONS:

One could even make the argument that a top round safety like Elam could pair with T.Wilson, especially if you add a lower/middle cost vet like Sheldon Brown into the mix for starting reps/role bit/depth. That could give us a safety tandem of Brown, T.Wilson, and Elam, with Gregory adding to the mix.

That's certainly one hell of an improvement and allows McCourty to go back to being the CB1, with Dennard as the CB2, and ALL of that could be done without even adding another CB like DRC/Asomugah/Gamble into the mix. We could get by with simply adding some lower cost additions for depth and nickel/dime competition.

In this scenario NEITHER position of CB/S would have to be spent bigger money on. Of course we'd like to see something a little better, but the following positional depth would be achieved at almost no real cost:

SAFETY

Elam
T.Wilson
S.Brown (or some other adequate safety for lower cost who could start)
Gregory

CORNERBACK

McCourty
Dennard
Arrington
Dowling
High round draft pick who could potentially fall from anywhere from CB1--CB4
Low cost vet pickup for added competition

This is the absolute worst-case scenario that would cost next to nothing in terms of any of the players you are proposing, especially Talib...

There is nowhere to go but up from here, and yet this still looks like a pretty decent improvement to me.

If the team is willing to spend any amount of money at either one of the CB/S positions in free agency, then we'd be making a big improvement upon this absolute low cost scenario that I have proposed. Either way, none of it has anything to do with spending lots of money or taking big risks with a player who hasn't proven anything whatsoever and has about a million character concerns (and also was injured for 50% of his time here).

So if you are saying we should just let go of talib then you are dumb.

I'll take your word for it....

Maybe you should send Belichick a letter stating why we should gamble on an overpriced player with mediocre talent and character concerns, who stood on the sideline with his puffy jacket and condom hat tilted to the side while the secondary got shredded in his one and only chance at seeing a SB appearance.

If Talib doesn't accept a reasonable contract offer (which he won't and I don't blame him due to media overhype and a second chance given from God himself) then don't let the door hit you in the ***...life will go on, and there are still plenty of reasonable ways to try and improve the secondary.

We almost won a SB last year with Antwaan Molden, Sterling Moore, Patrick Chung, and James Ihedigbo playing the secondary and contributing significantly in the NYG loss. I think we can get by without the awesome player that is Aqib Talib.

 

[supafly]

See,I think we want to believe that, but if you really look on the field, what convinces you? The Houston game is a big positive, but we were worse vs SF than in any other game all year.
Our defense was really good (better I think, but didn't look up) late in 2011 than this year, so preception may not be reality.

EDIT: I thought you were including Talib in there, so my point would then be agreeing with, not disagreeing with you, although we need a better starting corner than Arrington or safety duo than Gregory and Wilson.

I think that there are plenty of options, and that the NEP secondary gradually improves many years as the season progresses.

We've won more with a lot less, and we've actually seen players that were called off the street or played WR come in and play the slot. I think that there are many factors that go into trying to judge the secondary, but when everyone does their job better, a lot of improvement is made, especially if you give Belichick some time to hide weaknesses and take away key players.

I just want to see some more talent added through FA and the draft. I'm not going to worry about who is going to be the CB1/CB2 because that's what training camp and the month of September (first 1/4 of the season) is for. If there are some more talented players added, it will all shake out just fine.

 

[Ring 6]

I think that there are plenty of options, and that the NEP secondary gradually improves many years as the season progresses.

We've won more with a lot less, and we've actually seen players that were called off the street or played WR come in and play the slot. I think that there are many factors that go into trying to judge the secondary, but when everyone does their job better, a lot of improvement is made, especially if you give Belichick some time to hide weaknesses and take away key players.

I just want to see some more talent added through FA and the draft. I'm not going to worry about who is going to be the CB1/CB2 because that's what training camp and the month of September (first 1/4 of the season) is for. If there are some more talented players added, it will all shake out just fine.

I definitely agree that the amount of talent added rather than what position it plays is what is most important. That leads to getting value in contracts. Given the way the cap may play out this year, it may turn into less big signings and more incremental improvements across the roster.

 

[nzahir]

And who can we replace talib with? Derek cox is more inury prone than talib. Keenan lewis will prob be reisgned, and i dont think hes a true #1 cb. Grimes is older and came off a huge injury. Sean smith is ranked as one of the worst coverage cb's and wants brandon carr money. So that leaves who-nnamdi if he gets cut, and he has been a bust, getting older, and needs to play press(something we dont do).

So if you are saying we should just let go of talib then you are dumb. The franchise costs way too much money and wont let us sign anyone else important.

So nobody has yet to answer who will replace him, you guys are just saying there are options..

 

[Ring 6]

So nobody has yet to answer who will replace him, you guys are just saying there are options..

There are a number of Free Agents. Is your position that Talib is so much better than anyorne else that we could get that we should hand him a blank check and ignore the risk of substance abuse issues, criminal charges and off the field issues that could lead to him not being on the field?

 

[DocHoliday]

CB1: Talib/Nmandi
Backup: Dowling/Draft Pick

Both Talib and Nmandi similar in their inability to play zone. They almost entirely ignore the scheme and are left to their own devices, being man to man corners. At least Talib is young enough that he might be able to be coached into it, which makes him my preferred player.

Dowling takes the backup position with a developmental pick taking third string.

CB2: Dennard
Backup: Dowling/Draft Pick

Pretty simple. The same pick also backs up here.

Slot: Arrington
Backup: Draft Pick (Preferably Mathieu)

Arrington is very good at his job in the slot, and that's really all there is to it. I would also like the idea of the Honey Badger coming in and being the backup here. His cover skills are adequate in the box, and he's enough of an intriguing playmaker that I think he's worth a pick.

Star: Tavon Wilson
Backup: Dowling

Wilson is the go to guy for covering TEs. I also think BB wants to blend the safety and CB roles a bit more - Dowling is tall and strong enough to backup Wilson here. Would give him some added versatility if he sticks around.


FS: McCourty
Backup: Gregory

DMc will stay here. Nothing improves a backfield like an experienced FS. It's time for some stability, and DMc represents that. Gregory is adequate in this role.

SS: Tavon Wilson
Backup: UDFA/FA

The team needs a legitimate SS backup, and I think we'll find one in UDFA/FA as a development prospect.

Buh bye Cole, Williams, etc. Welcome two draft picks and a UDFA/FA.

..........All that said, I really want Matt Elam, and if that happens, I think he'll take the Star role and might even be played in the slot, since he can apparently cover there.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

you are going to pay top $$ to nmandi? becasue that's what he will want and someone will pay it

 

[DocHoliday]

Talib and long term commitment

you are going to pay top $$ to nmandi? becasue that's what he will want and someone will pay it

After 2 subpar years he's not going to get top money. Not only that, but Philly has guaranteed him 4 million this year.

 

[supafly]

After 2 subpar years he's not going to get top money. Not only that, but Philly has guaranteed him 4 million this year.

you are going to pay top $$ to nmandi? becasue that's what he will want and someone will pay it

I don't necessarily think that it has to be Nnamdi Asomugah, but someone in the mold of a 6 million per year aav. Other candidates would be DRC, Gamble (probably a bit higher), K.Lewis, etc. We could also just simply address the safety situation and move McCourty back to CB if the others are not cutting it during the positional battles in training camp.

I think ultimately the issue is that we all worry too much, and that it's only the month of February. If we're going to worry, then at least wait until TC or the first 1/4 of the season when the problem of poor play exists. In the meantime there are numerous things that can happen, both good and bad. For all we know we could have a draft pick come in and play great...or even a no name low level signing...or Dowling is healthy which would do wonders.

I just want the secondary addressed with some draft picks and a couple moderate level FA signings. Then we can see what we have and go from there. As much as we all want to see DMcC stay at safety, adding a guy like Elam and/or Woodson etc (or even a lower cost vet at safety) will give Belichick the option of flexibility for both positions.

Luckily we have a smart coach, so I expect that he'll be wanting to see improvements.

 

[nzahir]

There are a number of Free Agents. Is your position that Talib is so much better than anyorne else that we could get that we should hand him a blank check and ignore the risk of substance abuse issues, criminal charges and off the field issues that could lead to him not being on the field?

Im not saying completely ignore what he has done, but you can structure his contract in ways that hurt him if he does anything dumb off the field or gets injured. Talib is arguably the best available cb free agent, grimes could have been but we dont know he will come back from his injury, and he is going to be 30 i think by next season. Derek cox also is injury prone. Sean smith isnt as good in coverage and wants way too much and drc is very inconsistent. Keenan lewis is good, but makes no big plays and im not so sure if hes a true #1. Hernandez also had substance abuses, look at how thats gone. Im not saying give him a 5 year 50 mil contract. But a 3-4 year contract for 5-6.5 mil, depending on how much is guaranteed and how many years.

 

[supafly]

Im not saying give him a 5 year 50 mil contract. But a 3-4 year contract for 5-6.5 mil, depending on how much is guaranteed and how many years.

I think we'd all be just fine with the proposed pact you'd offer Talib (although Belichick may not want to go 3-4 yrs), but the truth of the matter is that Talib isn't going to be fine with it. You said so yourself that he's likely the "#1 CB option." Those aren't #1 kinds of figures.

I also think that you are severly underestimating what the flat cap crunch and 90 man roster is doing with freeing up more players. There will be available options that could provide better play, not to mention more consistent play with less injury and off the field issues. That isn't even bringing up the character concerns or being one failed test away from a full yr suspension either.

I don't see that much difference between a DRC, a Chris Gamble, a Nnamdi Asomugah, a Keenan Lewis etc---and we pretty much know that they'll be in that 5-6-7 1/2 million dollar range that you spoke of.

I think you are just looking at the FA list and forgetting about all of the other cap casualties and roster cuts. There is also the high rd draft picks, the prospect of adding a lower cost FA vet, and there is still the potential for Dowling to be healthy (even though you'll shrug it off, you still have to remember that he'll be competing for reps in training camp and has shown us decent play when healthy, even though that has been very limited).

Relax, and realize that we have Belichick on the team and that I highly doubt he is going to sit there and accept that his secondary sucks for a 3rd/4th yr in a row. It will be addressed, just probably not in the way that you want it to be. If we can keep Talib on a deal like you mentioned, all the better, but we're not expecting that to happen due to the extreme overhyping that he's been getting in the past 2-3 months from the media and fanbase.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

I think people are overstating Talib's play relative to the rest of the market. Look at the guys available this offseason. All of those players are roughly similar to Talib in terms of what they can do on the field IMO.

Derek Cox - Better than Talib when he's on the field. True press corner.
Sean Smith - Better on a good day but worse on a bad day. More upside than Talib.
Keenan Lewis - Looked damn good this past year and was better for sure but you have to be wary of the sample size.
Brent Grimes - Was better before he injured his knee. Still better than Talib if he can recover.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - A notch below Talib, good in coverage but not physical at the line, which is really what we need.
Nnamdi Asomugha (may be cut) - Better than Talib in man coverage. Worse in zone coverage.
Chris Gamble (will be cut) - Was better than Talib this past season. Sample size concerns.
Chris Houston - Consistently solid CB#1. Higher floor than Talib.
Cary Williams - Was better than Talib this past season.*

Is our defense really that much worse for the wear with any one of these guys instead of Talib? This is much deeper than say, the offseason we had the choice of Bodden or Dunta Robinson. Obviously the first few FA signings get crazy money. And Talib might be one of them. But once the teams looking to spend 10 mil/year on a CB have their fun, you'll have a market of cash-strapped teams in a cash-strapped offseason, and the price will go down. I'd rather get Cox for less, or Houston for half the cost.




*The only guy from the list above I'd be wary of is Williams. He is verrrry physical, and observationally the refs call our secondary tighter than most due to its reputation or for some other reason. I think his foul rate will go up if he comes to NE.

 

[BTTA]

This is off the topic, but its been brought up a few times, so maybe it should be part of the conversation.
Did they play better with him, or is that just the perception and hope?

He played in 6 games, but one was J-ville where he really didn't play hardly at all. So we are really down to 5 games....Personally I think the jury is out on whether we actually played better if much better with Talib at corner. His injury issues that kept him out of many games including the AFCCG should be taken into account too.

Is it that we are so adamant in getting a corner that we are not only ignoring Talib's risk factors but also overrating his contributions? Personally I think people overrated his play during the season because it gave them hope the defense was 'fixed'.

This makes me think that I've probably been overrating his contribution, too. If he'd had this kind of year for another team, plus had off the field issues, and he was put in the list of FA corners, we'd all be very wary of him. Hmmm...

 

[Ring 6]

Im not saying completely ignore what he has done, but you can structure his contract in ways that hurt him if he does anything dumb off the field or gets injured. Talib is arguably the best available cb free agent, grimes could have been but we dont know he will come back from his injury, and he is going to be 30 i think by next season. Derek cox also is injury prone. Sean smith isnt as good in coverage and wants way too much and drc is very inconsistent. Keenan lewis is good, but makes no big plays and im not so sure if hes a true #1. Hernandez also had substance abuses, look at how thats gone. Im not saying give him a 5 year 50 mil contract. But a 3-4 year contract for 5-6.5 mil, depending on how much is guaranteed and how many years.

Well, thats kind of my point that no one is saying build those in.
On the other hand, will he take a contract that has restrictions? And how do you propose to hurt him if he does anything 'stupid off the field'? Besides the money, that also leaves you without the player, which is part of the risk factor i was talking about.
Finally, I think you are looking at every other players negaitves and ignoring Tailbs.

 

[everlong]

I think the Patriots are going to be content to let him see what his market value is and when it's not the franchise tag X 6 years with 25% up front in value he's going to end up with either a one year prove it deal or a multi-year deal comprised of the one year prove it plus incentives. I just can't see another team paying a guy who was a huge problem in Tampa and then showed flashed in NE but was often injured in that short stint big bucks. If they lose him playing that strategy I think they'll write it off as a much more acceptable risk than killing their cap on a big contract with him.

 

[Ring 6]

I think the Patriots are going to be content to let him see what his market value is and when it's not the franchise tag X 6 years with 25% up front in value he's going to end up with either a one year prove it deal or a multi-year deal comprised of the one year prove it plus incentives. I just can't see another team paying a guy who was a huge problem in Tampa and then showed flashed in NE but was often injured in that short stint big bucks. If they lose him playing that strategy I think they'll write it off as a much more acceptable risk than killing their cap on a big contract with him.

I think its a fair risk to let him go out there are see how the entire market judges his value and risk. I would bet a ton of money that Aqib's opinion of his value vs his risk factors ranks higher than all 32 GM's.
I think he is going to be disappointed in the offers he gets.

 

[jmt57]

Patriots offseason primer: After Ravens loss, expect a frenzy | Boston.com | Greg Bedard

As it stands, the Patriots are planning to go with Devin McCourty and Tavon Wilson as the starting safeties and they have a strong belief in the duo. The team has confidence that Wilson progressed enough last season, and will take the expected leap to Year 2. However, it can’t be discounted that the team really has other plans at safety — league sources believe the Patriots will try for Ed Reed of the Ravens at about $5 million per season. Packers free agent Charles Woodson doesn’t seem to be a fit for what the Patriots want to do, but those who know him think he would play at value money. A return by free agent Patrick Chung would be shocking. The team liked what Talib brought last season at cornerback and would like him back, but character and injury concerns probably will limit how far they want to go, so the transition tag could make sense. The cornerback market will be unpredictable because there aren’t any elite players available, only good ones.

Someone could jump on Talib and there’s a strong belief he’ll take the highest offer, even if it’s not much more than the Patriots’. One more area of caution with Talib: he possesses a pied-piper charisma that endears himself to younger players on the team, similar to Moss. Do the Patriots really want that long-term? The team has no idea what’s going to happen with Alfonzo Dennard’s sentencing, but most believe he’ll be with the team for most, if not all of training camp. Kyle Arrington likely will go to market because he wants to be paid as a starting cornerback. Although the Patriots think he’s a solid player, it’s a stretch to think they’re going to want to pay him as a starter when they view him as a No. 3 with good special teams ability. Expect the Patriots to take one or two cornerbacks in the draft, including a possible first-round selection.​

A couple of interesting comments from Greg Bedard this morning, regarding that portion of his column on Talib.


Twitter conversation

Reader: One question though; what did you mean by the "Pied Piper charisma" comment about Talib?

Bedard: He makes others want to follow him.

Reader: Thanks. That's what I thought but I find it hard to believe anyone would want to follow him anywhere with his reputation.

Bedard: You would be very surprised.​

 

[everlong]

I think its a fair risk to let him go out there are see how the entire market judges his value and risk. I would bet a ton of money that Aqib's opinion of his value vs his risk factors ranks higher than all 32 GM's.
I think he is going to be disappointed in the offers he gets.

Agreed on all counts.