Report: Welker won't be franchised

[Ivan]

no where did I say a JAG would produce the same as Wes just that any JAGs average play when combined with lloyd Gronk and AHERN is still a really good group of targets for Brady.

This is flawed analysis. JAG's can get some numbers because they play with really good players who draw attention but still produce. Players like Welker are the ones who draw that attention, still produce at thhe highest level, and enable the others around them to put up better numbers. You don't put Darrelle Revis on a JAG and you don't have to gameplan to handle JAG's. HOF quality players only come along generationally, Welker is such a player and he has earned the respect that goes with it. Filling your team with JAG's is the recipe for mediocrity, not championships.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Maybe I went at this the wrong way yesterday in trying to comapre to the past in Caldwell or bringing up specific years like 06.

Lets just show some simple math.

401 completions for Brady last year. How can we get close to that again.

70 from Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez gets you to 210 and I think 70 is fair number to use as they all have had more than 70 catches in a single season for us before so it is not unlikely to think they could do it again (if injuries were to continue to nag them then it might not be reached but I am going to assume health as I think with or without Wes if the TEs cant stay healthy we wont get over the hump). Therein lies the problem

so we are at 210 with these 3 already only about half way to 401. how can we get another 191.

Last year by my quick count your backs got you 56 receptions Woody giving you 40 of them and he might be gone too oh my god how do we replace those. Lets be conservative here and assume that Vareen if given the chance could pick up some of those 40 and/or Demps get some too. lets assume the number goes down and lets call it a conservative and clean 40 receptions from the backs next year. I'm taking my lead from the coaches and not assuming anything where Vereen is concerned.

250 receptions now and we have only counted one true WR in Lloyd. WR2 and WR3 will account for something and this is where the projections get trickey and why I went back and looked at a guy like Caldwell in the first place to come up with a best guess at what WR2 might be able to come up with. But lets not even go that high lets assume WR2 and WR3 give you a very modest 30 apiece. Embarassing as it is to admit, Caldwell WAS WR1. And we've had lots of WR2 and WR3 produce next to nothing. So assuming 30 apiece which is 2 catches per game is not something I'm prepared to do.

boom we are up to 310 now and still 100 shy of last years total. There really aren't that many receiving options left. WR4 and WR5, TE3 and TE4 and thats it. I think these 4 players would easily give you anywhere from 15-30 (more if called on for extended back up time but that would make some numbers above go down so lets not go there). Now you're just being silly...

Final number puts us at 325-340. I dont think it is to crazy to HOPE that the trio of Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez could do better than 70 each. I dont think it is to crazy to HOPE that the duo of whatever is in place for WR2 and WR3 could do better than 30 each. It might be a stretch to think that Vareen and Demps will out receive Woody and Vareen but one can HOPE for it or one could just HOPE for Woody back but then I guess I would have to HOPE he can put up 40 again.

Food for thought: Lloyd put up 74 as WR 2 not crazy to think if he were WR1 that the number could go up. Gronk's best year was 90. Hernandez's best year was 79. All 3 numbers bigger than the 70 I quoted. Last year Branch/Edelman playing out of the WR3 spot for the year gave you 37 catches more than what I quoted for WR2. adding the difference from these numbers to the above would add 40 receptions bringing us to 365-385.

Lloyd isn't a WR1. Not even sure he's a WR2. Regardless of what position he plays based on the roster he's on.

OK go ahead and flame on.

I think the biggest mistake most of you guys are making is assuming that less Welker means more opportunities for others. Brady may be forced to target them more, but without Welker to game plan for and cover all three of Gronkowski, Hernandez and Lloyd are going to see better coverage than they have in their careers. Gronk may be able to adapt to that, Hernandez isn't a given, and Lloyd won't.

Adding someone like Boldin might improve the odds, but the sad fact is he won't be coming here unless Baltimore cuts him and we offer to pay him in the $6M+ range. Which is what they honestly have been trying to pay Wes since last spring. That 2 year $16M deal was only on the table if it could be tacked on to his remaining $2.15M season in 2011. Once it was gone and he was tagged they decreased the offer substantially. Wes would play here for a real $8M. He's not asking too much, they're just offering too little. They'd rather add another Lloyd or Ocho at $4M HOPE like you are that that turns out to be good enough.

The real fools in all this are those who believe absent Welker Belichick will go out and replace him with some younger stud $10-12M WR... Not. Gonna. Happen.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Deleted previous post

Now we're getting somewhere. This is your best post to date.

 

[Ring 6]

Did you not read what the # are based on? It is a ration of WW 174 catches all going to Edelman not what I think is going to happen..

You should really read prior to react Andrew.

What? That makes no sense. You are going to replace Welker by taking his catches and dividing them among players who are not as capable of getting open?
What is the point?

 

[Joker]

a lot of insider experts in this thread...and yet the polarity is stark.

Not only being AT the last loss, but breaking it down on video later that week, it was pretty clear that the Ravens strategy was to hit and bump and grab Welker, no matter if it was within the supposedly enforced 5 yards or 5 and 10 yards downfield. THIS had the desired effect for the Ravens as Welker dropped a ball wide open downfield on one of the few plays the Pats managed to get him free...the ball hit both his hands. Now, if he's making his customary 10 to 14 grabs, that is not a big deal...in a game called the way THIS one was , it was huge.

To further exacerbate this playoff trend, the Super Bowl made a mockery of the NFL defensive rules. I posted this before and it's there to refute or improve upon but after breaking down every offensive play for both teams, I came up with 41 defensive pass interference/illegal contact penalties on the Ravens to 22 on San Fran.There was exactly ONE penalty called the entire game out of a total of 63 possible calls.

What this tells me is that ,as of right now, the NFL is going to ignore regular season officiating parameters in the playoffs. In that event, it would seem the Pats need to look to stronger WR's with size that came run through contact and arm bars. If the five yard contact rule is not going to be enforced, it marks the death knell of the smallish,shifty slot receiver as far as the playoffs is concerned.

So...what is the answer? Sign Welker and use the 100+ catches he provides during the regular season, only to be rendered impotent by these "playoff rules" once the post season starts? Or look to the draft and free agency to grab receivers with size and speed that can stretch the field and muscle secondaries? If so, the slot receiver is all but a memory for our playoff offense. This would also require a shift in focus for Brady. At his age, I just don't know if he's able or willing to adapt.Depending on the depth ofd this draft it might be wise for the Pats to try to hit a home run or two as far as receivers go and use the money saved on a mega-Welker signing to address the secondary. I'm no expert, just a fan from day one but it doesn't take a genius to see the trending in this league as far as playoff teams are concerned.

 

[Ring 6]

Making up? Some of my modest numbers that I assume player X would get to replace Wes is really no more or less assuming that if Wes were back he would get another 120 catches. Both make sense. I would assume if we brought Wes back he would have a similar year to what he always does and I assume if Wes were gone someone else would catch a few passes and I think 57 is a fairly modest guess on what this guy could do. call it making things up or call it making a projection on next years production like we would with any position.

Bottom line is you dont want to except that fact the I am not trying to say that this offense will be better without Wes next year. All I am saying is that this offense will still be pretty darn good and produce without him and that it will very likely be able to move on and put up more than enough points and gain its fair share through the air. If that money were to spent wisely to continue to improve the defense the offense will still be fine.

Oh and I would obviously perfer to have Wes back but just bracing myself for the possibility it might not happen.

You made up a number and assigned it to a ficticious player.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Thing is, Welker hasn't been rendered impotent. Others may have been. Imagine how they will fare when defenses aren't focused on trying to stop Welker.

Wes Welker Playoffs Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[Deus Irae]

Thing is, Welker hasn't been rendered impotent. Others may have been. Imagine how they will fare when defenses aren't focused on trying to stop Welker.

Wes Welker Playoffs Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Yeah... I've brought this up before. Welker's playoff numbers are actually on par with his regular season numbers. It's an example of how the "Welker in the playoffs = bad" crowd are really just scapegoating.

 

[Joker]

well, I already know his stats inside out from that game and 108 yards and a TD look fine on the surface...BUT...five of his catches came in the second half...and as you may recall, the Pats were in pass mode because they were behind so badly. The play I'm talking about came in the first half on a ball that hit both his hands in stride...that's a "must have" catch IMO...my point is he was whacked so many times beyond the 5 yard chuck rule line in the first half that I think it affected his game rhythm somewhat...or it could be just what it looked like..a HUGE missed catch in a game where every play counts one way or the other. If you subscribe to BB's axiom that every game in the playoffs comes down to five or six key plays then THAT was a key play the Pats didn't make.

If the regular season rules applied to this game, I could see the Pats getting up by much more than they were at the end of the first half. Perhaps that still wouldn't have mattered in the 2nd half because the Ravens tore the secondary to shreds. I guess that's my point....focus resources on improving the back end of the defense and getting size at WR or spend 11 to 12 million for a slot receiver who is going to get no respect and no calls in the playoffs. Go back and look at the game tape...Welker easily had another 50 to 80 yards of uncalled illegal contact/PI in that game. The rule is no hitting the receiver past five yards...that rule was routinely ignored all game by that ref crew yet was a shadow of the ridiculous non calls in the Super Bowl.

The real point is what kind of game IS a playoff game now?...if it is what we witnessed THIS post season then any team that wants to succeed needs receivers that can shrug off contact no matter where on the field and go up and out muscle the secondary to make plays. The Branches of the world will no longer do because at crunch time, defenses will just muscle them with impunity. For a team that predicates it's offense on timing and getting open, this is bad news because defensive secondaries will just clutch ,hold ,grab and push our receivers beyond five yards and disrupt the entire flow of the offense.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

When he goes to another team..anyone want to guess his stats with new team? I know it will depend on the QB but will he be anywhere near 100 catches? I think he may miss NE just as much as NE will miss him when he is gone. Pats know what he is and how to utilize him. Lesser coaches may not and hurt him which could very well be the case

 

[Deus Irae]

well, I already know his stats inside out from that game and 108 yards and a TD look fine on the surface...BUT...five of his catches came in the second half...and as you may recall, the Pats were in pass mode because they were behind so badly. The play I'm talking about came in the first half on a ball that hit both his hands in stride...that's a "must have" catch IMO...my point is he was whacked so many times beyond the 5 yard chuck rule line in the first half that I think it affected his game rhythm somewhat...or it could be just what it looked like..a HUGE missed catch in a game where every play counts one way or the other. If you subscribe to BB's axiom that every game in the playoffs comes down to five or six key plays then THAT was a key play the Pats didn't make.

If the regular season rules applied to this game, I could see the Pats getting up by much more than they were at the end of the first half. Perhaps that still wouldn't have mattered in the 2nd half because the Ravens tore the secondary to shreds. I guess that's my point....focus resources on improving the back end of the defense and getting size at WR or spend 11 to 12 million for a slot receiver who is going to get no respect and no calls in the playoffs. Go back and look at the game tape...Welker easily had another 50 to 80 yards of uncalled illegal contact/PI in that game. The rule is no hitting the receiver past five yards...that rule was routinely ignored all game by that ref crew yet was a shadow of the ridiculous non calls in the Super Bowl.

The real point is what kind of game IS a playoff game now?...if it is what we witnessed THIS post season then any team that wants to succeed needs receivers that can shrug off contact no matter where on the field and go up and out muscle the secondary to make plays. The Branches of the world will no longer do because at crunch time, defenses will just muscle them with impunity. For a team that predicates it's offense on timing and getting open, this is bad news because defensive secondaries will just clutch ,hold ,grab and push our receivers beyond five yards and disrupt the entire flow of the offense.

People (in general, not meant specifically) keep ignoring the two enormous elephants in the Welker discussion rooms:

1.) Significant injuries in 4 of the last 5 losses (5th loss was the Brady/Crumpler brainlock game)

2.) No WR3 worth a damn in terms of increasing the size of the field since 2007

2008 - No Brady, no playoffs
2009 - Sam Aiken
2010 - Branch, a WR3 by this time in his career, at WR2, and Tate at WR3
2011 - Chad Johnson
2012 - A spent Deion Branch

The team re-signing Gaffney in 2009 would have been a big help for the next 3 years or so, but they thought they could replace him easily and save a few pesos in the process. As has happened all too often in these matters, they thought wrong.

 

[Deus Irae]

When he goes to another team..anyone want to guess his stats with new team? I know it will depend on the QB but will he be anywhere near 100 catches? I think he may miss NE just as much as NE will miss him when he is gone. Pats know what he is and how to utilize him. Lesser coaches may not and hurt him which could very well be the case

Salary cap aside, pick the QB in this group who couldn't get Welker to 100 catches while helping out their offense tremendously:

P. Manning
B. Roethlisberger
A. Luck
Dalton
Schaub
Rivers
Rodgers
Cutler (Ok, he's probably one)
Stafford
Ryan
Brees
Wilson (Ok, he might be another)

Even leaving a few questionables out, and using two other questionables as examples, I've got 10 QBs who could excel with a guy like Welker.

 

[Brady6]

What? That makes no sense. You are going to replace Welker by taking his catches and dividing them among players who are not as capable of getting open?
What is the point?

Just was showing the stats not anything more.

 

[Ivan]

The team re-signing Gaffney in 2009 would have been a big help for the next 3 years or so, but they thought they could replace him easily and save a few pesos in the process. As has happened all too often in these matters, they thought wrong.

Jabar Gaffney couldn't be easily replaced...........................