If Wes Welker Walks, Patriots Have Some Serious Work to Do

[PatsFans.com Article]

If Wes Welker Walks, Patriots Have Some Serious Work to Do
By: Ian Logue

It appears things are about to get fairly interesting with wide receiver Wes Welker....

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[Deus Irae]

The Patriots should have listened to you and I before, Ian.....


BTW, nice work keeping on message with that article, instead of rambling around. That's become a bit of a rarity around here, lately.

 

[patsfaninpa]

If we let Walker go, I believe we'll trade for Percy Harvin. BB won't duplicate mistake in 06 of letting Branch go and not replacing him. Much smaller cap hit this year. Allows you to focus on trying to finish the job of rebuilding your defense. And, if he works out like Moss. Not a record-breaking year. Just a very good one. You re-up him at the end of the year.

I think the worry with Welker is how much longer can he do this. He's played like a mad-man for 6 years and isn't a very big guy. In the NFL players aren't rewarded for what they've done. They're paid for what the teams feels they will do going forward. Seems like BB operates that he'd like to trade a player a year too early than a year too late. Sometimes it's worked. Seymour and D. Branch. Sometimes it hasn't. Asante Samuel. With a flat salary cap, the writing is on the wall. I think it's been since last summer when Gronk and AHern got extended.

 

[ralmat55]

To correct one point in the article, Randy Moss was traded during the 2010 season when Josh McDaniels was still the head coach of the Broncos. It was Bill O'Brien (and probably Bill Belichick) who rebuilt the offense into the juggernaut it was down the stretch of that season.

Think about it. A Hall-of-fame receiver was traded, and the offense actually got better. How many of us thought that was going to happen at the time. I think the Patriots offense can actually get better in 2013 without Welker just like it got better in 2010 without Moss.

This is how: Welker is a slot receiver, but he's very limited in his effectiveness when lined up outside. You can only have so many receivers running inside routes, so this forced one of the tight ends (mostly Hernandez) to line up outside and run outside routes. He's better at it than Welker, but Hernandez is far more effective running inside routes. IF he stays healthy, Hernandez will be a suitable replacement for Welker inside. Then, all they have to do is sign, draft or develop an outside receiver who can exceed Hernandez's production outside preferably one who has enough speed to stretch the field, and you have a better more versatile passing offense- an offense which will be much harder to defend by packing the middle of the field

I'm not sure Julian Edelman is that outside receiver as Josh and Bill seemed to think last season before Hernandez's injury scuttled their plans, but it doesn't have to be Calvin Johnson or Mike Wallace either. Again, what's needed is someone(s) who can replace the production of Welker and Hernandez on outside routes. And, that may not take much.

Sure, the Patriots are taking a gamble letting Welker go. But, it could work out to their favor just like it did by trading Moss in 2010.

 

[Helmet2Helmet]

They have serious work to do either way. If they sign Welker they're going to have a huge amount of resources (Brady, Mankins, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez) tied up in the offense. I'd rather see Brady do more with less (which he is clearly capable of doing) than watch a bottom of the barrel defense stumble out (AGAIN) with unproven rookies and JAG defensive FAs.

 

[patman52]

Like everyone here i love Welker and what he did for the team, but I don't see how the team can afford to pay him more than 6mill without hurting the team in other positions.

The pats have to get the ball outside the hashes more to their wide outs. If they do part ways a guy like Brandon Gibson to me would suit the bill as a cost effective #2 to Lloyds's #1.

 

[JackBauer]

The pats have to get the ball outside the hashes more to their wide outs. If they do part ways a guy like Brandon Gibson to me would suit the bill as a cost effective #2 to Lloyds's #1.

Let's be real: Lloyd/Gibson would be one of the worst starting tandems in the league.

 

[Nehalem]

This is how: Welker is a slot receiver, but he's very limited in his effectiveness when lined up outside. You can only have so many receivers running inside routes, so this forced one of the tight ends (mostly Hernandez) to line up outside and run outside routes. He's better at it than Welker, but Hernandez is far more effective running inside routes. IF he stays healthy, Hernandez will be a suitable replacement for Welker inside. Then, all they have to do is sign, draft or develop an outside receiver who can exceed Hernandez's production outside preferably one who has enough speed to stretch the field, and you have a better more versatile passing offense- an offense which will be much harder to defend by packing the middle of the field

This. Imagine Welker was a FA from a different team with the same resume.

How many people would be clamoring for a slow smurf slot receiver?

It just is not really a fit for our 2-TE offense. Although I admit due to the injuries to our TEs this season he was able to be productive. Hopefully Ballard can fill in this year if the injury bug comes again.

 

[Kontradiction]

Like everyone here i love Welker and what he did for the team, but I don't see how the team can afford to pay him more than 6mill without hurting the team in other positions.

The pats have to get the ball outside the hashes more to their wide outs. If they do part ways a guy like Brandon Gibson to me would suit the bill as a cost effective #2 to Lloyds's #1.

I'd like to see the team keep Welker AND draft a big bodied receiver that can threaten every level, and specializes in doing work outside the hashes. Think of the personnel packages we could put together. Think of how dangerous this team would be in the red zone.

 

[nzahir]

If welker leaves, all the pats have to do is re sign tavon austin, a speedy deep threat who can also play slot. I think hernandez, gronk, austin, lloyd, edelmen, ballard, and stallworth are pretty good options. This team will have an average wr group, but the best te trio by far. The pats also have good rbs and a good o line. I would rather spend the money on the secondary, pass rush, and o line.

 

[grux]

Welker’s a great player, let’s not kid anyone. However, they’re in a tough position because they need more than his services to finally reach the next level offensively and they still also have personnel decisions to make on the defensive side of the ball. The hardest part about this is the fact that someone is likely going to overpay knowing how good of a player that he is, and that increases the likelihood that he’ll be playing somewhere else next season.

There offense played at a very high level this year (3rd in the league). The only way it could get better is if the TE's stayed healthy and we added a deep threat. They won't be able to replace Welker's production but maybe they are thinking about changing their scheme. Like a poster stated above, they might bring in a receiver that can stretch the field and let Hernandez run the short routes. I just think it is going to be hard to sign Welker and add a stud CB.

 

[patman52]

Let's be real: Lloyd/Gibson would be one of the worst starting tandems in the league.

Yes, but what are you going to do, we can not afford to pay Welker 8 mill a year. You sign gibson and hope that welker does not get any big money offers
(7.5 or more per year) and then comes back for 6 and another shot at a SB while padding his numbers for the HOF. If he doesn't by the 3rd week of April then we look to the draft for a another WR.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, but what are you going to do, we can not afford to pay Welker 8 mill a year.

Yes, they can.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

To correct one point in the article, Randy Moss was traded during the 2010 season when Josh McDaniels was still the head coach of the Broncos. It was Bill O'Brien (and probably Bill Belichick) who rebuilt the offense into the juggernaut it was down the stretch of that season.

Think about it. A Hall-of-fame receiver was traded, and the offense actually got better. How many of us thought that was going to happen at the time. I think the Patriots offense can actually get better in 2013 without Welker just like it got better in 2010 without Moss.

This is how: Welker is a slot receiver, but he's very limited in his effectiveness when lined up outside. You can only have so many receivers running inside routes, so this forced one of the tight ends (mostly Hernandez) to line up outside and run outside routes. He's better at it than Welker, but Hernandez is far more effective running inside routes. IF he stays healthy, Hernandez will be a suitable replacement for Welker inside. Then, all they have to do is sign, draft or develop an outside receiver who can exceed Hernandez's production outside preferably one who has enough speed to stretch the field, and you have a better more versatile passing offense- an offense which will be much harder to defend by packing the middle of the field

I'm not sure Julian Edelman is that outside receiver as Josh and Bill seemed to think last season before Hernandez's injury scuttled their plans, but it doesn't have to be Calvin Johnson or Mike Wallace either. Again, what's needed is someone(s) who can replace the production of Welker and Hernandez on outside routes. And, that may not take much.

Sure, the Patriots are taking a gamble letting Welker go. But, it could work out to their favor just like it did by trading Moss in 2010.

I did. Moss did not play like a HOF player here past that bye week when he had his little issue. From there on it was all down hill. Not sure if he would have rebounded had Brady not been knocked out in week 1 of the 2008 season, but that play was a drop... He hated having to play with Cassel. By the time Brady returned he was more an albatross than a weapon. Brady and Welker spent the last 6 weeks of that season pleading for guys to develop some mental toughness and get past whatever was hindering them, to no avail. Right after the season we found out what was hindering Randy, concern over the future and his contract... I said they should part with him after the 2009 season. Some didn't take to that. Turns out Bill waited until he was convinced he'd found a viable alternative in two rookie TE's.

Addition by subtraction only works when the player you subtract is hindering you in some way. Subtracting a player who keeps putting up record setting numbers isn't hindering you. Failing to add the missing piece, the physical WR who can replicate what Gronk gives you in the red zone when he's MIA, plan B if you will, is what is hindering this team. That and a defense that still can't hold a lead if anyone goes down. And an OL and backs who can't impose their will on an opponent when the situation dictates they should.

 

[mgteich]

Of course, we can afford $8M a year for Welker. Is that the issue for Welker or for the patriots? 3 years, $24M, sixteen million guaranteed. Who is accepting this deal? Who us rejecting? I suspect that both may reject this deal.

Yes, they can.

 

[Deus Irae]

Of course, we can afford $8M a year for Welker. Is that the issue for Welker or for the patriots? 3 years, $24M, sixteen million guaranteed. Who is accepting this deal? Who us rejecting? I suspect that both may reject this deal.

I was just responding to a poster who said that the Patriots couldn't swing the 8.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Of course, we can afford $8M a year for Welker. Is that the issue for Welker or for the patriots? 3 years, $24M, sixteen million guaranteed. Who is accepting this deal? Who us rejecting? I suspect that both may reject this deal.

I wouldn't be so sure both would. Although one hasn't offered anything close to that.

the team once again attempted to lower the AAV on a contract by incorporating the remaining year on the old deal. In Welker's case that was never going to fly because that year was at $2.15M. And it pulled the AAV of the deal he was being offered down to $6M.

Making 2/$16M really a 3/$18M offer. Once that year passed into history the offer of 2/$16 did as well. Welker said the guaranteed money went down after he was tagged. This isn't about lawyers mucking everything up. You'd probably to be insane to do a deal with Kraft without one, the NFLPA had an army of them but Kraft flanked them, but anyone with minimal accounting skills could tell Wes he was being screwed with.

Had they offered him a market deal, say 3 years $30M with $18M guaranteed he'd have signed it in a heartbeat what would really have been a 4 year $32.15M deal with a reasonable AAV of $8M. Had they kept his 2012 cap hit at $9.5M his remaining cap hits today could be $8M, $9M, $10M. With $3M in dead cap and $7M in savings if they cut him in 2015 (or they could force him to restructure and cut his salary in half lowering his cap hit in that final season to $6.5M).

But you see that never happened because they were intent on extending him only at $6M per over 3 years... So now they've forced another Mankins situation only with a guy who is 32 and whom they still don't want to pay market for because that market is certainly above $6M (which hysterically is what they paid for one year of Ocho and just a million less than what they are about to pay for a second year of Lloyd).

 

[Deus Irae]

I wouldn't be so sure both would. Although one hasn't offered anything close to that.

the team once again attempted to lower the AAV on a contract by incorporating the remaining year on the old deal. In Welker's case that was never going to fly because that year was at $2.15M. And it pulled the AAV of the deal he was being offered down to $6M.

Making 2/$16M really a 3/$18M offer. Once that year passed into history the offer of 2/$16 did as well. Welker said the guaranteed money went down after he was tagged. This isn't about lawyers mucking everything up. You'd probably to be insane to do a deal with Kraft without one, the NFLPA had an army of them but Kraft flanked them, but anyone with minimal accounting skills could tell Wes he was being screwed with.

Had they offered him a market deal, say 3 years $30M with $18M guaranteed he'd have signed it in a heartbeat what would really have been a 4 year $32.15M deal with a reasonable AAV of $8M. Had they kept his 2012 cap hit at $9.5M his remaining cap hits today could be $8M, $9M, $10M. With $3M in dead cap and $7M in savings if they cut him in 2015 (or they could force him to restructure and cut his salary in half lowering his cap hit in that final season to $6.5M).

But you see that never happened because they were intent on extending him only at $6M per over 3 years... So now they've forced another Mankins situation only with a guy who is 32 and whom they still don't want to pay market for because that market is certainly above $6M (which hysterically is what they paid for one year of Ocho and just a million less than what they are about to pay for a second year of Lloyd).

Honestly, I don't see why they can't see their way to offering 3 years, 24-27 mill, with about 20 guaranteed and a 5-8-11 to 6-9-12 split. Unless we've been misled by the reporting (certainly not impossible), doing that last year would probably have avoided the situation they've gotten themselves in now, where keeping him on 2 franchise tags will end up costing over 20 million anyway, and would only be for 2 seasons. They could have had more money available to them both last season and this season with an offer like that.

When it comes to the top players, this team really needs to stop with the "penny wise, pound foolish" crap.

 

[mgteich]

Obviously many here do not have minimal accounting skills.

but anyone with minimal accounting skills could tell Wes he was being screwed with.

 

[mgteich]

Now, if you could only convince Belichick.

Honestly, I don't see why they can't see their way to offering 3 years, 24-27 mill, with about 20 guaranteed and a 5-8-11 to 6-9-12 split. Unless we've been misled by the reporting (certainly not impossible), doing that last year would probably have avoided the situation they've gotten themselves in now, where keeping him on 2 franchise tags will end up costing over 20 million anyway, and would only be for 2 seasons. They could have had more money available to them both last season and this season with an offer like that.

When it comes to the top players, this team really needs to stop with the "penny wise, pound foolish" crap.