Report: Welker won't be franchised

[Deus Irae]

I am glad you included this in your post because you do not need to entirely come up with 200 or so you say.

They can come in a lot of ways one can be to hope that Gronk and Hernandz can stay healthier but also assume that Ballard can back them up better if need be.

You have to assume whoever fills Welkers spot will be able to replace a large number of Welkers balls basically by default (default meaning Tom Throwing to anyone).

Also his average was 11.5 if his replacement is more of a deep threat and ups his average per catch than that replaces some need for some of those receptions.

Lastly to compound on some of what I said in my previous post if we assume that whoever we replace Wes with can at least put up something similar to what Reche Caldwel did then we are only left with 57 receptions to replace and if sans those receptions this offense still would have been a very productive offense in this league probably still a top 10 offense (possibly even still top 5).

Your approach is basically hope in one hand.....

That's a recipe for problems, to put it gently. Also, your numbers are off, probably because, despite your claim, you're not adding a Caldwell and looking for 57 catches.

 

[Ivan]

From the NFL.com article:

A source with intimate knowledge of the team's thinking told Ron Borges of the Boston Herald that the Patriots "are simply not going to put an $11.4 million franchise tag" on the 31-year-old wide receiver.​

So I go to the original article in the Herald, and guess what? Zero mention of any such source! It's just Borges going down memory lane with players that have not been re-signed.

Wes Welker's 'leap' led into this abyss | Ron Borges | Boston Herald




Ron Borges is one of, if not the best X's and O's beat reporters for the Patriots. However, he has two huge flaws that he far too often falls prey to: anything to do with Bill Belichick (dating back to BB's decision to go with Brady over Bledsoe, and then trading Bledsoe, who was his inside source for information that he could write exclusive content); and secondly, anything at all to do with owner-employee/player relationships. Borges is and always has been over the top pro-union/player, anti-owner - which in turn makes him anti-Kraft as well.

Besides, consider this: who could possibly be Borges' "source with intimate knowledge of the team's thinking", as the second sentence of the NFL.com article states? Borges has had zero contacts in Foxboro for a decade! If there is indeed anybody, the only one I can think of is Welker's agent.

Now does that mean that Borges is wrong, and Welker will be franchised?

No, I would say that there is a very good chance that Welker won't be given the tag. However, basing that prediction on an alleged source of Ron Borges is ridiculous.

I have a very good source that says that Borges is always wrong.

 

[signbabybrady]

If it was easy to replace 120 catches, everyone would be doing it.

Not everyone has Tom Brady to help them do it with. And the point of my post was not to say that coming up with 120 will be easy but it was more to say that almost by default in having Tom we can easily replace half of it with any JAG at WR a la Caldwell.

 

[Ivan]

Not everyone has Tom Brady to help them do it with. And the point of my post was not to say that coming up with 120 will be easy but it was more to say that almost by default in having Tom we can easily replace half of it with any JAG at WR a la Caldwell.

Great idea, replace a guy having a HOF career with a JAG.

 

[Brady6]

Welker is not worth $11.5 million. Outside of Calvin Johnson I can't identify a WR that is worth that type of coin.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not everyone has Tom Brady to help them do it with. And the point of my post was not to say that coming up with 120 will be easy but it was more to say that almost by default in having Tom we can easily replace half of it with any JAG at WR a la Caldwell.

Do I really have to list all the failed "replacement" WRs to demonstrate the fallacy here, or can I just put "Chad Johnson" to make the point?

 

[signbabybrady]

Your conclusion and the points you made to get to it don't add up. Basically you are saying that players who can't stay healthy will stay healthy, Lloyd will need to turn into a No.1 WR, and players who haven't produced swill produce.

It's like saying you can easily get a supermodel to go out with you if you just get much better looking, become a pro athlete, and make millions more than you are currently making.

It's easy, no problem.

They dont fully add up to 120 receptions no but I can very easily get half of that without any major investment and if we assume we find someone better than Reche Caldwell we get even closer. From there other guys on the roster will need to pick up some slack but that is not unrealistic either if we assume Gronk and Hernandez can be healthier next year.

 

[Brady6]

Great idea, replace a guy having a HOF career with a JAG.

WW is a fringe HOF at best. He lacks the TD's and SB wins needed to be called a HOF..

 

[signbabybrady]

Great idea, replace a guy having a HOF career with a JAG.

My point was not to say that it should be the plan but rather that at a bare minimum that is what you would likely be looking at.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Deus is right. Having a plan is one thing, having it be a viable plan is another and then there's executing the plan. Normally I'm in the value camp but the Pats blew that opportunity themselves by waiting until 2012 and then not structuring a long enough deal. Time to make another "exception" to the philosophy, keep Brady productive, max out the chance to win and accept the fact that maybe there'll be a dead cap hit a few years out when there's a bigger cap.

EDIT: Most likely that ship has sailed. G'Bye Wes!

 

[Brady6]

Do I really have to list all the failed "replacement" WRs do demonstrate the fallacy here, or can I just put "Chad Johnson" to make the point?

Not to completely disagree with you but Johnson was an outside receiver and other than Moss no WR has ever been successful in that outside downfield role during the TB12 era.

Players like Branch, Troy Brown have had success in the slot, mid range role that Welker plays. Obviously not to the degree of course.

 

[signbabybrady]

Do I really have to list all the failed "replacement" WRs do demonstrate the fallacy here, or can I just put "Chad Johnson" to make the point?

That does not really make any point at all because had Welker gotten hurt that year do you not think that Chad might not have caught a few more passes?

None of you are giving Tom enough credit. Tom Brady is good enough to get by with much less than Wes if he had to and with Gronk, Hernandez, and Lloyd in place you are already far and above what you had in 06 which Brady still put up great numbers and took a team to the AFC championship.

In no way shape or form am I trying to say that it will be easy to completely replace Wes but what I am saying is that almost by default you can replace some of it with any jag, you should be able to replace some of it by spreading the ball to other players on the team (with the most likely being Gronk and Hernandez especially if they are healthier), and lastly it will not kill your chances to win if you are the 3rd or fourth best offense in the league instead of the first (Basically so what if you lose a little production it doesnt automatically corelate to wins and losses).

 

[Deus Irae]

That does not really make any point at all because had Welker gotten hurt that year do you not think that Chad might not have caught a few more passes?

I'm sure that, if Welker had gotten hurt on week one, Chad Johnson would have had 120+ catches and more than made up the difference.

 

[signbabybrady]

For a little more context.

Rather than to compare Caldwell and Wes

Lets compare 2006 Brady to 2012 Brady

06 Brady - 319 completions for 3,529 yds and 24 TDs
12 Brady - 401 for 4,827 and 34 TDs

There are some significant differences there but again I would contend that even without Wes replacement in place this offense still looks better in 13 with Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd, and the RB comitee that in 06.

Now I would like to think that whoever they bring in will actually be better than a 2006 Caldwell and that is more what I am worried about than trying to replace 120 receptions and one of the best WRs in the league. There is enough talent on that offense to pick up the slack and still be one of the 5 or 10 best offenses in the league.

Would I love Wes back? Yes. Do I think we could have him had they handled it differently? Yes. Do I think it is the end all be all to being able to win one more title? Asolutely not.

 

[signbabybrady]

I'm sure that, if Welker had gotten hurt on week one, Chad Johnson would have had 120+ catches and more than made up the difference.

But that is not even close to what I contended. Had Welker gotten hurt in week 1 that year I think Chad would very likely have gotten pretty close to the 57 that Reche Caldwell put up in 06 though which is exactly what my point was.


But to be fair I think your point does have some credence as average as Caldwell was there is no guarentee any Jag would do what he did that year but we would be able to move on from this guy and try another jag. But again my point was not to say that we should replace Wes with a JAG but if that was all we could come up with we still would not be in as bad a spot as you are making it out to be.

 

[TomPatriot]

FWIW, here are my thoughts.

No one wants to pay a 32 yo slot receiver $12 million per or even a bit less over a longer term at a higher guarantee. I don't see any team (i.e., Giants, Broncos) with enough cap room to do it. Maybe that is what the Pats are thinking.

I am not a huge slot receiver fan and I like but don't love Wes Welker. That said, he's probably going to the Hall and he deserves it. That's probably true of Megatron and certainly true of Sticky. They are all great receivers in different ways. Sticky is the most versatile of the three; he does everything well and he's a coach's dream.

Welker is Brady's crutch at times because Welker is so quick, precise and elusive. That's good and bad. It means he usually has a checkdown, no matter what the play. It also means he might checkdown too quickly at times.

I suspect they still think Edelman can give them some production and they will go to the TEs in slot more and maybe the backs in motion and set. Note that is 3-4 other players needed to pick up the slack.

 

[Deus Irae]

But that is not even close to what I contended.

No, it's pretty much exactly what you were implying.

Had Welker gotten hurt in week 1 that year I think Chad would very likely have gotten pretty close to the 57 that Reche Caldwell put up in 06 though which is exactly what my point was.

Johnson couldn't get it done. That's exactly what my point is. Your Caldwell fixation misses the mark by a country mile, because it's ignoring both elephants in the room.

But to be fair I think your point does have some credence as average as Caldwell was there is no guarentee any Jag would do what he did that year but we would be able to move on from this guy and try another jag. But again my point was not to say that we should replace Wes with a JAG but if that was all we could come up with we still would not be in as bad a spot as you are making it out to be.

Whether you like it or not, Caldwell was able to fit in to the Patriots well enough to have a career season for himself, but most players brought in under similar circumstances have been bombs (elephant #1). From Johnson to Galloway, to Gabriel, to Hayes, etc......

Like I said, your plan is basically hope in one hand....

 

[Brady6]

Can pose this question for the crowd?

Ranking Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, Edelman, Lloyd and Vereen how would you place them when it comes to big play and playmaking ability?

 

[signbabybrady]

No, it's pretty much exactly what you were implying.

Absolutely not I never said any JAG could replace Wes I said any Jag could do what Caldwell did in 06 and I even backed off that a little to give credence to one of your points which is that there is no guarentee that every JAG could do what Reche did but that it shouldn't be to hard to find one that could.

Johnson couldn't get it done. That's exactly what my point is. Your Caldwell fixation misses the mark by a country mile, because it's ignoring both elephants in the room.

Johnson couldnt get it done no arguments here. But I think it is safe to assume that if had as little ahead of him as Reche did in 06 that he would have done more.

Whether you like it or not, Caldwell was able to fit in to the Patriots well enough to have a career season for himself, but most players brought in under similar circumstances have been bombs (elephant #1). From Johnson to Galloway, to Gabriel, to Hayes, etc......

Like I said, your plan is basically hope in one hand....

None of the players you mentioned were brought in under similar circumstances to what Reche was brought into. Nor will next years replacement for Wes as we still have more talent than what Reche had on that team.


You seem to have it in your mind that without Wes Brady will either take a sack, throw a pick, fumble, or throw an incompletion 120 more times than with him.

Fact is some of those completions might not be made but most of them will be made by whoever replaces Wes and the rest will be spread to the rest of the team and it might be slightly more difficult for Tom to make those plays but the majority of them will still be made.

 

[Deus Irae]

...I even backed off that a little to give credence to one of your points which is that there is no guarentee that every JAG could do what Reche did but that it shouldn't be to hard to find one that could.

This is still not correct, as has been proven time and again.

Johnson couldnt get it done no arguments here. But I think it is safe to assume that if had as little ahead of him as Reche did in 06 that he would have done more.

Go back and read your posts again. Because of the context of the discussion, you were cleary implying that Johnson could have gotten it done if he'd just had more opportunities.

None of the players you mentioned were brought in under similar circumstances to what Reche was brought into. Nor will next years replacement for Wes as we still have more talent than what Reche had on that team.

Every single one of them was brought in under similar circumstances.

You seem to have it in your mind that without Wes Brady will either take a sack, throw a pick, fumble, or throw an incompletion 120 more times than with him.

No, I have it in my mind that Wes Welker is the player around whom the receiving corps revolves, and is the player, besides Brady, who is most responsible for keeping the offense moving. I have it in my mind that replacing that player will take more than "Bring in a JAG, and pretty much any JAG will do!".

Fact is some of those completions might not be made but most of them will be made by whoever replaces Wes and the rest will be spread to the rest of the team and it might be slightly more difficult for Tom to make those plays but the majority of them will still be made.

You're confusing hope and opinion with fact.

Your plan continues to be hope in one hand....