Report: Welker won't be franchised

[manxman2601]

Is it Welker's production we need to replace or Hernandez's? I'm only asking because I was struck by the similarities between the two in terms of measurables and production (but not size obviously).

Measurables:

Hernandez:

4.64 40 yd
6.83 3-cone
4.18 shuttle

Welker:

4.65 40 yd
7.09 3-cone
4.01 shuttle

Same 40 time with Welker winning one agility test and Hernandez winning the other.

For production, I'm going to use 2011 stats because of Hernandez's injury this year.

Welker winsd the number of receptions comfortably, but after that, things start to get fairly even:

% Targets Caught

Hernandez: 73.1
Welker: 73.1

Yds per Rec.

Hernandez: 11.2
Welker 12.3

YAC/Rec.

Hernandez: 6.2
Welker: 5.7

TD's

Hernandez: 9
Welker: 10

I'm not suggesting that Hernandez is a like for like replacement for Welker and I freely admit that this statistics only based analysis is simplistic, but there's enough similarities there to make me think that the Pats envisage Hernandez taking up some of the slack of losing Welker and then finding a receiver that can replicate Hernandez's production; an altogether easier task than replacing one of the best receivers in the NFL. It would amount to an extra 50 targets for Hernandez or an extra 3 targets per game.

 

[DarrylStingley]

Imagine him at what expense? They've already committed $15M in cap average over the next 6 years to two TE's. You want them to commit $16M+ to one WR? Who had 1 TD through week 8 last season and 1 less than Welker in week 17? $60M+ committed to the top 5 players player contracts on the offensive side of the roster? That's half the cap so thanks, I'll pass.

I agree that there are limits.

But I also think that if the 2013 Pats had Calvin Johnson, they would not have the offensive breakdown in the playoffs they've had in their last three playoff losses.

So I don't know, maybe he would be worth HUGE cap dollars.

Because make no mistake, the Pats lost to the Giants and Ravens because, more than anything else, their high powered offense failed them.

No doubt, a healthy Gronk changes a lot against the Giants and Ravens. But still, I see Johnson, or someone else remotely like him, as a big difference maker.

And no doubt, Welker will be very hard to replace.

Anyone who views this discussion -- on any side -- as totally black and white is...dreaming.

 

[Ivan]

Do people really think the Patriots don't have a plan if Welker leaves? I think the one thing the Patriots have consistently shown over the past 12+ years is that they have a plan for all scenarios. Not to say that every plan ends up working (for example Caldwell / scrubs replacing Branch at WR in 2006), but they always have something prepared.

well then you may be looking at a first because other than Percy Harvin there is no WR available that they will sign who can produce even half of what Welker does.

If they let Welker walk it will be the dumbest move of Belichick's tenure in NE.

 

[Ivan]

Is it Welker's production we need to replace or Hernandez's? I'm only asking because I was struck by the similarities between the two in terms of measurables and production (but not size obviously).

Measurables:

Hernandez:

4.64 40 yd
6.83 3-cone
4.18 shuttle

Welker:

4.65 40 yd
7.09 3-cone
4.01 shuttle

Same 40 time with Welker winning one agility test and Hernandez winning the other.

For production, I'm going to use 2011 stats because of Hernandez's injury this year.

Welker winsd the number of receptions comfortably, but after that, things start to get fairly even:

% Targets Caught

Hernandez: 73.1
Welker: 73.1

Yds per Rec.

Hernandez: 11.2
Welker 12.3

YAC/Rec.

Hernandez: 6.2
Welker: 5.7

TD's

Hernandez: 9
Welker: 10

I'm not suggesting that Hernandez is a like for like replacement for Welker and I freely admit that this statistics only based analysis is simplistic, but there's enough similarities there to make me think that the Pats envisage Hernandez taking up some of the slack of losing Welker and then finding a receiver that can replicate Hernandez's production; an altogether easier task than replacing one of the best receivers in the NFL. It would amount to an extra 50 targets for Hernandez or an extra 3 targets per game.

That's a flawed analysis because you are incuding hernandez' current production in with the extra production needed to get up to Welker's. They already have Hernandez production so that has to be subtracted when talking about replacing Welker. If he catches 3 more balls a game for 36 yards a game then they still have to make up the rest of it somewhere and that isn't going to happen.

 

[manxman2601]

That's a flawed analysis because you are incuding hernandez' current production in with the extra production needed to get up to Welker's. They already have Hernandez production so that has to be subtracted when talking about replacing Welker. If he catches 3 more balls a game for 36 yards a game then they still have to make up the rest of it somewhere and that isn't going to happen.

Absolutely. But by getting the ball to Hernandez more often, they don't have to think about replacing Welker's incredible production, just Hernandez's. I'm not saying that's an easy task but don't forget, those are 2011 statistics so Lloyd already provides 50 or so additional targets to make up for Hernandez's 134. I'm much more comfortable trying to find an additional 70 to match Hernandez's production than I am an additional 130.

And by the way, because I know how much a fan you are (and quite rightly) that final 130 number just shows what a beast Welker is. To put it in perspective, if you add Lloyds 2012 improvement over Branch to our offense, to get to what Welker does, you'd also have to add what only 13 other WR's in the NFL produced this year. In other words:

Welker = Top 13 WR + (Lloyd-Branch).

 

[Ivan]

Absolutely. But by getting the ball to Hernandez more often, they don't have to think about replacing Welker's incredible production, just Hernandez's. I'm not saying that's an easy task but don't forget, those are 2011 statistics so Lloyd already provides 50 or so additional targets to make up for Hernandez's 134. I'm much more comfortable trying to find an additional 70 to match Hernandez's production than I am an additional 130.

And by the way, because I know how much a fan you are (and quite rightly) that final 130 number just shows what a beast Welker is. To put it in perspective, if you add Lloyds 2012 improvement over Branch to our offense, to get to what Welker does, you'd also have to add what only 13 other WR's in the NFL produced this year. In other words:

Welker = Top 13 WR + (Lloyd-Branch).

No problem manxman, i was just pointing out that replacing Welker requires replacing all of the production of the most productive WR in football the past 5 years, not just upping some production from their existing receivers.

 

[Ivan]

I think we knew this already but . . .


Report: Patriots not planning to franchise Wes Welker - NFL.com

The source is Borges so take that as you will.

Whew. That puts the likelihood of Welker being franchised again at almost 100%.

 

[Ivan]

They HAVE to keep lloyd and resign edleman..as well as get a few good guys in FA ( not many this year..most will fetch too much $$) and draft...welker is gone and it sucks but it is what it is. Hopefully he doesn't go to denver...

Lloyd is already under contract. Edelman has earned vet minimum, they should offer it to him.

 

[Ivan]

Expected, and I don't blame them. Still want him signed, but I've resigned myself to the reality it probably won't happen as he wants too much. Been awesome having you around Wes.

"He wants too much?"


How much is he asking for?

 

[Deus Irae]

Do people really think the Patriots don't have a plan if Welker leaves? I think the one thing the Patriots have consistently shown over the past 12+ years is that they have a plan for all scenarios. Not to say that every plan ends up working (for example Caldwell / scrubs replacing Branch at WR in 2006), but they always have something prepared.

Having a plan is meaningless if you can't carry it out. This team has demonstrated that plenty of times in the past.

If you've got, for example, 200 catches between Welker and Hernandez (just going with rough numbers based upon 2011), you've got to come up with 200 catches. It doesn't matter what the split is. As for Lloyd, he was busy making up for Gronk's lost catches (90 down to 55) and Branch/Johnson/Edelman's (60 down to 37), so he's not really giving any real impact on the 200.

You can't just expect Hernandez to jump from 80 to 110, because he can't stay on the field, and he might end up with 50, the way he did this year. The shortfall in numbers this year from 2011 was made up for by increased receptions for the RBs, particularly Woodhead, and that was with Welker still on the team.

If the Patriots move on from Welker, they've got an immediate shortfall of about 120 catches per season to make up. The injury history of Hernandez tells us that we can't expect him to shoulder that burden and, even if he did make a full season and pull in 120 catches, the team would still need to pull in another 80 catches just to keep the numbers even.

Now, you can argue about the =/- of keeping that level of pass receptions, but the team has to make up the passes, significantly increases the run numbers, or starts working the clock down in order to cut down on the number of plays.

 

[signbabybrady]

No problem manxman, i was just pointing out that replacing Welker requires replacing all of the production of the most productive WR in football the past 5 years, not just upping some production from their existing receivers.

I dont agree that you have to replace all of his production per se and to expect one WR to come in and do it is not likely.

There are several ways we can replace it. And the least likely is that we bring in a new WR who gets 130 catches.

Some things that will need to be done.

1) A WR needs to replace Wes on the depth chart and lets be conservative and assume this WR is pretty good but nothing amazing lets say somewhere around 50-70 catches.

2) Either the WR above needs to get more and be a better player or Lloyd needs to step into the WR1 role and up his numbers a little.

3) We need Edelman or a similar pay grade player and he needs to stay healthy thus replacing some of what Welker gave you.

4) Gronk and Hernandez staying healthy and especially Hernandez will need to get a few more targets a game.

5) RB and TEs will need to take a few extra screens.

6) You dont need to fully replace it all via receptions either. If the new WR is more of a deep threat you can pick up bigger chunks of yardage, or maybe Demps gets a few screens Wes might have and his speed turns it into a huge play. Maybe you run the ball a little more on 3rd and 2 instead of relying on Wes and pick up first downs on the ground that may have been passes before.

Bottom line is there is a lot of ways to replace Wes production and it doesnt all fall on whoever else is WR.

Also you are not giving Brady enough credit he will almost by default give you a certain amount of production even with a JAG as WR1. See Reche Caldwell. I think a good point to this discussion might to be just flat out substract whatever Reche got in 06 from Wes usual production as that would be a fair (not exacat) indication on what needs to be replaced.

Reche caught 61 balls for 760 Yds and 4 TDs

Wes in 2012 had 118 for 1354 and 6

difference 57 for 594 and 2

I think we can easily make up that difference or more acurately enough of that difference if we just assume the player we replace Wes with will be better than Caldwell, That Hernandez will catch 2-3 extra passes a game, and that the backs will take up the slack a little in the screen game. This also still leaves room to potentially improve the overall offense if we can get more consistant production out of WR3 wether that be Edelman staying healthy all year or whoever might replace him.

 

[Deus Irae]

...I think we can easily make up that difference or more acurately enough of that difference if we just assume the player we replace Wes with will be better than Caldwell, That Hernandez will catch 2-3 extra passes a game, and that the backs will take up the slack a little in the screen game. This also still leaves room to potentially improve the overall offense if we can get more consistant production out of WR3 wether that be Edelman staying healthy all year or whoever might replace him.

If it was easy to replace 120 catches, everyone would be doing it.

 

[jmt57]

From the NFL.com article:

A source with intimate knowledge of the team's thinking told Ron Borges of the Boston Herald that the Patriots "are simply not going to put an $11.4 million franchise tag" on the 31-year-old wide receiver.​

So I go to the original article in the Herald, and guess what? Zero mention of any such source! It's just Borges going down memory lane with players that have not been re-signed.

Wes Welker's 'leap' led into this abyss | Ron Borges | Boston Herald




Ron Borges is one of, if not the best X's and O's beat reporters for the Patriots. However, he has two huge flaws that he far too often falls prey to: anything to do with Bill Belichick (dating back to BB's decision to go with Brady over Bledsoe, and then trading Bledsoe, who was his inside source for information that he could write exclusive content); and secondly, anything at all to do with owner-employee/player relationships. Borges is and always has been over the top pro-union/player, anti-owner - which in turn makes him anti-Kraft as well.

Besides, consider this: who could possibly be Borges' "source with intimate knowledge of the team's thinking", as the second sentence of the NFL.com article states? Borges has had zero contacts in Foxboro for a decade! If there is indeed anybody, the only one I can think of is Welker's agent.

Now does that mean that Borges is wrong, and Welker will be franchised?

No, I would say that there is a very good chance that Welker won't be given the tag. However, basing that prediction on an alleged source of Ron Borges is ridiculous.

 

[BKBroiler]

well then you may be looking at a first because other than Percy Harvin there is no WR available that they will sign who can produce even half of what Welker does.

If they let Welker walk it will be the dumbest move of Belichick's tenure in NE.

1) You do realize that Percy Harvin is not a free agent and that the Patriots would need to trade for him? He will cost either a 1st or 2nd round pick, plus a new contract that would be similar to what Welker will get (8-10 million per year). For that, it'd make more sense (and be a better value) to just pay Welker for another 1-2 seasons.


2) Everyone on here assuming that Welker's production can't be replaced is completely overreacting. While he has been great (and would most likely perform that way for at least a few more years with Brady around), there will always be someone to take on the additional role if he did leave. For example, if they maintain a similar offensive style, both Hernandez and Edelman (if resigned), would take on some of the role Welker played between the hashes. There are slot receivers in the draft (e.g., Tavon Austin, etc.) that they could look at bringing in. There are even cheaper trade targets like Davone Bess that could help fill the role. Most likely none of them would replace all of Welker's production, but each could replace pieces.

The Pats could also decide to make a slight adjustment to their offensive scheme and look to add more vertical or outside options as well. Cheaper FAs like Donnie Avery, Devery Henderson, and Brandon Gibson could help add that dimension, while providing depth. There are also a bunch of potential quality outside WRs in the draft they could look at including Quinton Patton, Da'rick Rogers, Deandre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Terrence Williams, Markus Wheaton. And those are only a few of the surprisingly deep WR class this year.

While the plan may not work, making a chicken-little, general statement that a professional team (especially one led by a coach as deliberate as Belichick) doesn't a plan to try to replace Welker is ridiculous.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

well then you may be looking at a first because other than Percy Harvin there is no WR available that they will sign who can produce even half of what Welker does.

If they let Welker walk it will be the dumbest move of Belichick's tenure in NE.

Relax!

Your husband will get a great contract somewhere.

Hope it's where you can wear those really hot outfits during TV games

 

[Ivan]

I dont agree that you have to replace all of his production per se and to expect one WR to come in and do it is not likely.

There are several ways we can replace it. And the least likely is that we bring in a new WR who gets 130 catches.

Some things that will need to be done.

1) A WR needs to replace Wes on the depth chart and lets be conservative and assume this WR is pretty good but nothing amazing lets say somewhere around 50-70 catches.

2) Either the WR above needs to get more and be a better player or Lloyd needs to step into the WR1 role and up his numbers a little.

3) We need Edelman or a similar pay grade player and he needs to stay healthy thus replacing some of what Welker gave you.

4) Gronk and Hernandez staying healthy and especially Hernandez will need to get a few more targets a game.

5) RB and TEs will need to take a few extra screens.

6) You dont need to fully replace it all via receptions either. If the new WR is more of a deep threat you can pick up bigger chunks of yardage, or maybe Demps gets a few screens Wes might have and his speed turns it into a huge play. Maybe you run the ball a little more on 3rd and 2 instead of relying on Wes and pick up first downs on the ground that may have been passes before.

Bottom line is there is a lot of ways to replace Wes production and it doesnt all fall on whoever else is WR.

Also you are not giving Brady enough credit he will almost by default give you a certain amount of production even with a JAG as WR1. See Reche Caldwell. I think a good point to this discussion might to be just flat out substract whatever Reche got in 06 from Wes usual production as that would be a fair (not exacat) indication on what needs to be replaced.

Reche caught 61 balls for 760 Yds and 4 TDs

Wes in 2012 had 118 for 1354 and 6

difference 57 for 594 and 2

I think we can easily make up that difference or more acurately enough of that difference if we just assume the player we replace Wes with will be better than Caldwell, That Hernandez will catch 2-3 extra passes a game, and that the backs will take up the slack a little in the screen game. This also still leaves room to potentially improve the overall offense if we can get more consistant production out of WR3 wether that be Edelman staying healthy all year or whoever might replace him.

Your conclusion and the points you made to get to it don't add up. Basically you are saying that players who can't stay healthy will stay healthy, Lloyd will need to turn into a No.1 WR, and players who haven't produced swill produce.

It's like saying you can easily get a supermodel to go out with you if you just get much better looking, become a pro athlete, and make millions more than you are currently making.

It's easy, no problem.

 

[Ivan]

Relax!

Your husband will get a great contract somewhere.

Hope it's where you can wear those really hot outfits during TV games

lol..........

 

[signbabybrady]

Now, you can argue about the =/- of keeping that level of pass receptions, but the team has to make up the passes, significantly increases the run numbers, or starts working the clock down in order to cut down on the number of plays.

I am glad you included this in your post because you do not need to entirely come up with 200 or so you say.

They can come in a lot of ways one can be to hope that Gronk and Hernandz can stay healthier but also assume that Ballard can back them up better if need be.

You have to assume whoever fills Welkers spot will be able to replace a large number of Welkers balls basically by default (default meaning Tom Throwing to anyone).

Also his average was 11.5 if his replacement is more of a deep threat and ups his average per catch than that replaces some need for some of those receptions.

Lastly to compound on some of what I said in my previous post if we assume that whoever we replace Wes with can at least put up something similar to what Reche Caldwel did then we are only left with 57 receptions to replace and if sans those receptions this offense still would have been a very productive offense in this league probably still a top 10 offense (possibly even still top 5).

 

[Ivan]

1) You do realize that Percy Harvin is not a free agent and that the Patriots would need to trade for him? He will cost either a 1st or 2nd round pick, plus a new contract that would be similar to what Welker will get (8-10 million per year). For that, it'd make more sense (and be a better value) to just pay Welker for another 1-2 seasons.


2) Everyone on here assuming that Welker's production can't be replaced is completely overreacting. While he has been great (and would most likely perform that way for at least a few more years with Brady around), there will always be someone to take on the additional role if he did leave. For example, if they maintain a similar offensive style, both Hernandez and Edelman (if resigned), would take on some of the role Welker played between the hashes. There are slot receivers in the draft (e.g., Tavon Austin, etc.) that they could look at bringing in. There are even cheaper trade targets like Davone Bess that could help fill the role. Most likely none of them would replace all of Welker's production, but each could replace pieces.

The Pats could also decide to make a slight adjustment to their offensive scheme and look to add more vertical or outside options as well. Cheaper FAs like Donnie Avery, Devery Henderson, and Brandon Gibson could help add that dimension, while providing depth. There are also a bunch of potential quality outside WRs in the draft they could look at including Quinton Patton, Da'rick Rogers, Deandre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Terrence Williams, Markus Wheaton. And those are only a few of the surprisingly deep WR class this year.

While the plan may not work, making a chicken-little, general statement that a professional team (especially one led by a coach as deliberate as Belichick) doesn't a plan to try to replace Welker is ridiculous.

While this risks a note from the mods I can safely say that you are a complete idiot. Stick to Madden, you don't know anything at all about football.

 

[YearbookCurfew]

I'm not really surprised. It's unfortunate though.