A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

[supafly]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

I can't possibly agree with the following:

McCourty as a "C"---he has played very well in 2/3 seasons, and in both of those seasons he has warranted a 1st round pick status. I would have definitely given him a solid "B."

Ellis Hobbs as a "C+"---while Hobbs was never going to be a good #1 CB, he was extremely effective as a CB2 or CB3 at the worst. This isn't even taking into account his ST play either. I would move that up to a solid "C."

Meriweather as a "C-"---he freelanced and played out of position, and he did not warrant BOTH probowl votes, but he certainly deserved one of them in my opinion, and during his first 3 seasons of 2008-2010 only Troy Polamalu had more turnovers in the league. Meriweather deserves a solid "C" also.

 

[supafly]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

A first rounder should become an elite NFL player.

A second round pick a very good player with some Pro Bowl opportunity

Understand that a third round Draft pick is determined to be a long term NFL starter to warrant that pick.

I think it would be helpful to take a look at the success ratio percentage for picks in the first, second, and third rounds when you get a chance. They aren't nearly as high as you may think. If you took this into account you may be able to understand the hit/miss exercise that is the NFL draft.

I agree with you on some level that these particular positions haven't panned out enough, but I would guess that we've had a much better success rate at many other positions to balance that out.

To answer your question I would still hope that Belichick addresses these positions through the draft again, yes, because that's probably the only way we're going to get a long term starter. The rate and gamble of FA's isn't much better, probably worse when you factor in their overinflated cost.

 

[BlitzFritz]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

The thesis from the OP is a good one -- the Pats have NOT done well drafting DBs and WRs. (We knew this already I think).

The grades are not reasonable for the picks that worked out (Eugene Wilson, Asante, etc).

I personally am more interested in WHY the NEP struggle so mightily ? I mean look at high value picks repeatedly used in the secondary. Merriweather, Dowling, Butler, etc). Its frickin frustrating.

And I do not want to see them pick a WR before 4th round, since EVERY WR washes out in our offense.

Its just an unbelievable run on failure, people. This thread is probably WHY WE HAVE NOT WON ANOTHER SB since 2004.

(okay maybe i had too much coffee, but WTF)

-- FRITZ

 

[Froob]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

This evaluation:Z-

 

[FCB02062]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

Fair assessment by the op, and trifling over whether or not mccourty, merriweather, or whoever warrants a B instead of a C is pretty trivial. We all know that better drafting and signing higher quality free agents (and not the old last legs bldg 19 variety - springs, galloway, et al.) would have netted Brady anotber super bowl....wait, must be a spoiled pats fan.....

 

[DarrylS]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

Some perspective that the Draft is a crap shoot, has not been updated for the 12 draft... but the idea is obvious.

Have always contended that the draft is a crap shoot... people look to the Steelers as some hallmark we should emulate.. here is their draft history in the second round for the past 6 years..

2011.. Marcus Gilbert..OT currently starts for the Steelers
2010.. Jason Worilds.. playing ok, but seems to be a work in progress
2009.. no second round pick
2008.. Limus Sweed... has been waived
2007.. Lamar Woodley.. great pick
2006.. no second round pick

Miami's vaunted 2nd round picks..

2011...Daniel Thomas RB.. looks like a good pick
2010..Koa Missa. LB.. work in progress
2009..Pat White. QB... not in the game
2008..Phillip Merling.. not in the game
Chad Henne..
2007.. John Beck. QB...traded to the Redskins
Samson Satele.. C.. good pick
2006..no pick

The Jets absolutely wonderful 2nd round picks..

2011... no second round pick
2010.. Vladimir DuCasse
2009.. Shonn Greene
2008 .. no second round pick
2007.. David Harris
2006.. Kellen Clemens
2005... Mike Nugent
Justin Miller..


The Green Bay Packers recent 2ndround picks..

2011.. Randall Cobb
2010.. Mike Neal.. oft injuried
2009.. no second round pick
2008..Brian Brohm.. no longer in the NFL
Patrick lee.. marginal player
2007..Brandon Jackson.. marginal player now with the Browns.
2006...Darren Colledge..starting O lineman now with the Cardinals
Greg Jennings
2005..Nick Collins.. a pro bowler on IR
Terrence Murphy retired from the NFL..

You can do this will all of the teams in the AFC and results may be comparable. People need to view this longitudinally.. there are as many hits in the draft as misses

 

[Lamanai]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

Here is one 10-yr study that indicates about a 50% bust rate for 2nd rounders.

I suppose some of it might be subjective, such as what constitutes a bust or an impact player, but I think it is clear. As the author states:

"...it doesn't hide the fact that it is much harder to get impact players in the second round than most Draftniks can imagine. Fans and Draftniks need to look at the second round as it is a bit of a coinflip, but as always teams make really dumb second-round picks, which should never have happened."

WalterFootball.com: NFL Draftology 408: The 10-Year NFL Draft Study: Round 2

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Why is BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

I think it is pretty obvious that BB has an abysmal record drafting WRs and DBs but no one has discussed why this is the case.

My pet theory is that BB tries to draft super Boy Scouts such as Ras-I Dowling but that just does not work for DBs and especially WRs. The best WRs and DBs have huge egos and most are primadonnas or worse.

Of course this does not explain one of BB's worst draft gaff's ever--taking Brandon "Sharon" Tate instead of Mike Wallace but in general I think the problem is BB's standards are too high for those guys.

Also you have to wonder about the scouting. If there a scouting problem or did BB overrule the scouts on some of these disasters (I seems to remember rumors to this effect). How can his scouts be so high on a WR yet by day two or three of Camp it is pretty obvious that the guy cannot get open?

 

[RayClay]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

It's because there is a salary cap.

 

[Snake Eyes]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

It's because there is a salary cap.

The salary cap might get in the way of signing big name WRs and CBs but how does it get in the way of drafting one?

 

[olschool]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

The salary cap might get in the way of signing big name WRs and CBs but how does it get in the way of drafting one?

It's more to do with where they pick every year. By the time their pick comes around in the twenties the really highly rated players are gone. If they do have a pick in the top fifteen it'll probably go to a linebacker or defensive end.

Sure there are plenty examples of misses, but you could cherry pick all the misses by other teams too, and suddenly the Pats picks don't look too bad.

I have more of a problem with trading down for "value", or stockpiling a dozen picks, most of whom won't make the team.

 

[Sciz]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Because people like you rewrite history to make it seem like there were obviously better decisions to be made.

 

[Tunescribe]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

It's more to do with where they pick every year. By the time their pick comes around in the twenties the really highly rated players are gone. If they do have a pick in the top fifteen it'll probably go to a linebacker or defensive end.

Sure there are plenty examples of misses, but you could cherry pick all the misses by other teams too, and suddenly the Pats picks don't look too bad.

This is as fair an assessment as any. Don't forget Asante Samuel and Deion Branch as notable BB draftees at those positions. Dennard too. We finally should know about Dowling this year. Edelman panned out reasonably well.

 

[Jimke]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

I believe that lack of good assistant coaches is also a factor in the
failure of WRs and DBs to succeed. Since the Charlie Weis/Romeo
Crennel area ended, the quality of assistant coaching talent has
become worse each year.

Our current WR and DB coaches do not have impressive college coaching resumes.
How can you expect them to develop young talent? Eric Mangini is the Patriots' Benedict Arrnold but he was able to convert Eugene Wilson
from cornerback to passable safety in a couple of weeks.

 

[borg]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

BB seems to value agility above all else at both positions. Unfortunately, agility can't cover the speed WRs on the outside or the physical WRs. And the turn on a dime WRs he favors aren't the type of WR that stretches the field.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Because people like you rewrite history to make it seem like there were obviously better decisions to be made.

So you are saying that taking take Tate was better then taking Wallace? How did I re-write history here?

 

[RayClay]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

The salary cap might get in the way of signing big name WRs and CBs but how does it get in the way of drafting one?

You propose we draft them high and then don't sign them?

 

[Snake Eyes]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

It's more to do with where they pick every year. By the time their pick comes around in the twenties the really highly rated players are gone.

Ok, suppose I agree with you, that still has nothing to do with the salary cap.

 

[RayClay]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

If we're talking speed receivers that would be available when they picked, you have Bethel Johnson and Chad Jackson.

If you're talking big, good receivers, but less speedy, like Boldin, I think they prefer tight ends (Gronk adds much more to an offense IMO).

If we're talking Big, fast, smart receivers, we don't have the picks and very high picked receivers have busted out at a fair rate.

Of course we went after tight ends for years with picks and FAs before we got our present two, so i wouldn't be surprised we try to pluck a fast receiver with flaws, or lack of resume, again.

 

[Helmet2Helmet]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Can't believe people are still banking on Dowling. Even when he played he was terrible. Somehow him and the secondary being torched for 400+ yards to Chad Henne inspired optimism for the guy.