The Patriots' Offensive Breakdown

[PatsFans.com Article]

The Patriots' Offensive Breakdown
By: John Vampatella

Super Bowl 42. *The Patriots'...

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[ivanvamp]

For comparison's sake, consider the great 49ers run from 1981-1998. Five SB titles, regularly winning the division and going to the playoffs.

Here are their numbers during their SB-winning seasons vs. their non-SB winning seasons:

SB-winning Seasons
- Regular season: 26.9 ppg, 376.0 ypg, 1.5 to/g
- Playoffs: 34.2 ppg, 402.8 ypg, 1.7 to/g
- Difference: +7.3 ppg, +26.8 ypg, +0.2 to/g

Non-SB-winning Seasons
- Regular season: 26.5 ppg, 377.6 ypg, 1.7 to/g
- Playoffs: 20.1 ppg, 333.2 ypg, 2.3 to/g
- Difference: -6.4 ppg, -44.4 ypg, +0.6 to/g

Compare that to the Patriots':

SB-winning Seasons
- Regular season: 24.1 ppg, 325.9 ypg, 1.6 to/g
- Playoffs: 24.2 ppg, 332.9 ypg, 0.7 to/g
- Difference: +0.1 ppg, +7.0 ypg, -0.9 to/g

Non-SB-winning Seasons
- Regular season: 30.1 ppg, 388.0 ypg, 1.2 to/g
- Playoffs: 25.1 ppg, 359.7 ypg, 1.9 to/g
- Difference: -5.0 ppg, -28.3 ypg, +0.7 to/g


Now let's compare their average regular season numbers in their non-SB-winning seasons with their playoff losses in those seasons:

SF
- Regular season: 26.5 ppg, 377.6 ypg, 1.7 to/g
- Playoff Losses: 14.9 ppg, 313.4 ypg, 2.8 to/g
- Difference: -11.6 ppg, -64.3 ypg, +1.1 to/g

NE
- Regular season: 30.1 ppg, 388.0 ypg, 1.2 to/g
- Playoff Losses: 17.0 ppg, 383.0 ypg, 1.7 to/g
- Difference: -13.1 ppg, -5.0 ypg, +0.5 to/g


So the pattern is very similar. Massive offensive underperformance in the playoffs from two of the most phenomenal offensive machines the league has ever produced. It just happens, even to the very best of them.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Well that was a kick in the groin.

 

[jmt57]

I onder how many of those offensive turnovers came when the Patriots were behind, and time was becoming a factor. At that point teams are willing to take more of a gamble, which over a number of similar type games (e.g., losing in the 4th quarter) will result in a larger number of total turnovers.

 

[ivanvamp]

I onder how many of those offensive turnovers came when the Patriots were behind, and time was becoming a factor. At that point teams are willing to take more of a gamble, which over a number of similar type games (e.g., losing in the 4th quarter) will result in a larger number of total turnovers.

Without going through all the game logs, and just going off the top of my head, here's what I can remember:

- 2005 vs. Denver. The Pats were down 20-13 in the second half when Brady threw his pick in the end zone to Champ Bailey. They were certainly not in desperation mode at that point. Just an awful decision by Brady at the time.

- 2006 vs. Indy. Brady threw a late pick on their last, ill-fated drive to end the game.

- 2007 vs. NYG. The Pats were driving for a possible FG attempt at the end of the 2nd quarter. They were in Giants' territory with less than a minute to go and Brady got sacked and fumbled. Those three points, um, sure would have come in handy later on in the game!

- 2009 vs. Bal. Down 7-0 after Rice's huge run, Brady got sacked and fumbled on their third offensive play of the game. Baltimore turned that into a quick TD to go up 14-0. It still wasn't desperation time, as there was tons of time to come back, but about halfway through the first quarter, Brady threw an interception in the Pats' end of the field. The Ravens turned that into another TD to go up 21-0. Then down 21-0, Brady threw ANOTHER interception in the 1st quarter, and the Ravens got a FG out of it. So those three first-quarter turnovers led to 17 Raven points and the game was over.

- 2010 vs. NYJ. Brady's INT on the screen pass was in the 1st quarter and it killed what looked like a sure scoring drive.

- 2011 vs. NYG. Brady's INT on the deep ball to Gronk was at the beginning of the 4th quarter with the Patriots up 17-15. He had Hernandez wide open on the right for what would have been about a 20 yard gain, but chose the deep ball that Blackburn picked off.

- 2012 vs. Bal. The Ridley fumble came in the 3rd quarter with the Pats down one point. Not desperation time at all. Huge play. The late picks sealed the deal, of course.