FOURTEEN Million of free agency money

[mgteich]

After allowing for bonuses earned, this year's rookie and workout bonuses, we have fourteen million available per Jason.

There will future costs that could be paid for by a late cut or two and/or a restructure or two: Player 52 and 53, the Practice Squad, IR players and their replacements (in camp or in season). We need not worry about this now since we have a method of paying for this in August.

There is precious little additional sources of revenue. For example, we could save a million by cutting Fells now, but it seems better to have the camp competition.

Since players replace a player already on the roster, we should consider only net costs, with a player considered to be replacing a $500K player on the roster. Minimum salary vets don't add much cost at all. We will likely add our usual dozen.

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LASER FOCUS FOURTEEN MILLION FOR FREE AGENCY
As of now, we are losing players at every position (a normal situation). Who would you use precious free agency money to keep? How would you allocate our free agency money. Remember you have only fourteen million to spend on re-signings AND on free agencts from other teams.

As a final caution, I would note that the cap next year is very tight. Pushing a lot of money into next year is not a good idea. It is not at all clear when the nfl will see the next major raise in the cap.

I would also note that we are not choosing a final roster, just who to bring into camp.
=====================
OUR FREE AGENTS
RB Woodhead
WR Welker, Edelman, Branch, Stallworth
TE Hooman (RFA)
OL Vollmer, Thomas
DL Scott, Brace, Harrison
LB Koutouvides, White
CB Talib, Arrington, Cole, Martin
S Chung, Allen, Barrett
==================
Personally, I would allocate $2M to four low-level free agents (a million a year folks like Cole). That would leave twelve million a year for mid and top level free agents.

 

[Ring 6]

After allowing for bonuses earned, this year's rookie and workout bonuses, we have fourteen million available per Jason.

There will future costs that could be paid for by a late cut or two and/or a restructure or two: Player 52 and 53, the Practice Squad, IR players and their replacements (in camp or in season). We need not worry about this now since we have a method of paying for this in August.

There is precious little additional sources of revenue. For example, we could save a million by cutting Fells now, but it seems better to have the camp competition.

Since players replace a player already on the roster, we should consider only net costs, with a player considered to be replacing a $500K player on the roster. Minimum salary vets don't add much cost at all. We will likely add our usual dozen.

======
LASER FOCUS FOURTEEN MILLION FOR FREE AGENCY
As of now, we are losing players at every position (a normal situation). Who would you use precious free agency money to keep? How would you allocate our free agency money. Remember you have only fourteen million to spend on re-signings AND on free agencts from other teams.

As a final caution, I would note that the cap next year is very tight. Pushing a lot of money into next year is not a good idea. It is not at all clear when the nfl will see the next major raise in the cap.

I would also note that we are not choosing a final roster, just who to bring into camp.
=====================
OUR FREE AGENTS
RB Woodhead
WR Welker, Edelman, Branch, Stallworth
TE Hooman (RFA)
OL Vollmer, Thomas
DL Scott, Brace, Harrison
LB Koutouvides, White
CB Talib, Arrington, Cole, Martin
S Chung, Allen, Barrett
==================
Personally, I would allocate $2M to four low-level free agents (a million a year folks like Cole). That would leave twelve million a year for mid and top level free agents.

You don't even need 2mill for 4 fringe guys, because they will replace someone else in the top 51.

 

[DocHoliday]

To me Fells is no more than Algae Crumpler. One year depth rental with little to offer outside the blocking game.

Best to get someone with more upside

 

[Ring 6]

To me Fells is no more than Algae Crumpler. One year depth rental with little to offer outside the blocking game.

Best to get someone with more upside

Its a reserve TE who is inactive often. You just grab guys and let them compete in camp. Not an area to spend.

 

[Deus Irae]

...Personally, I would allocate $2M to four low-level free agents (a million a year folks like Cole). That would leave twelve million a year for mid and top level free agents.

Theoretically....

QB - Set
RB - Set, or need 1 backup/situational guy
TE - Set
WR - screwed
OL - 2 Needed, 1 may need to be a starter

DL - Set
LB - Set
Db - 2-3 CBs needed, S needed


I'm not sure how many players you think the team needs, but you seem to be plugging in a lot more holes that I'm seeing on the roster.

 

[Ring 6]

Theoretically....

QB - Set
RB - Set, or need 1 backup/situational guy
TE - Set
WR - screwed
OL - 2 Needed, 1 may need to be a starter

DL - Set
LB - Set
Db - 2-3 CBs needed, S needed


I'm not sure how many players you think the team needs, but you seem to be plugging in a lot more holes that I'm seeing on the roster.

After what I saw most of the season and again in the AFCCG I don't know how we can consider DL 'set'. If you are saying we can field a unit, OK, but if you mean a quality one that can get reasonable pressure on the QB, we are either putting a lot of faith in Armstead and still lacking a starter, or we are lacking 2.

 

[mgteich]

My analysis is the same as yours. Good job. To me this is a lot of players, even without adding a defensive lineman or coverage linebacker, who so many want. However, I think that you rightly conclude that those positions are not free agency needs.
=======
My summary your stated needs.
WR - need 3
OL - need 2
RB - might need a backup or situational player
CB - need 3 (at least for camp)
S - need one (could be a draftee)

The NUMBER of free agency real needs are small. However, the positional needs are severe. We could lose three of the top free agents in the league in Welker, Talib and Vollmer. And we could lose backups from the same units in Edelman, Arrington and Thomas. And their backups in Branch and Cole.
===========================
Personally, I think that Edelman and Woodhead will be relatively easy re-signs. If we also re-sign Thomas and Arrington, then we will be even more laser focused in free agency.

Theoretically....

QB - Set
RB - Set, or need 1 backup/situational guy
TE - Set
WR - screwed
OL - 2 Needed, 1 may need to be a starter

DL - Set
LB - Set
Db - 2-3 CBs needed, S needed


I'm not sure how many players you think the team needs, but you seem to be plugging in a lot more holes that I'm seeing on the roster.

 

[mgteich]

We have our starting TE's. We have our backup (Ballard). We can use a blocking TE. Fells is under contract and will likely lose a camp competition to someone who will cost less than his net one million. Hooman is a possibility to compete for the blocking TE position.

Andy would like us to get a couple of jAG's and let them fight it out for this inactive position. After all, our TE's get injured so rarely. ??

To me Fells is no more than Algae Crumpler. One year depth rental with little to offer outside the blocking game.

Best to get someone with more upside

 

[mgteich]

Would you use serious free agency money on the DL instead of on corners, wide receivers and offensive linemen?

I suggest that we will draft a DL or two.

After what I saw most of the season and again in the AFCCG I don't know how we can consider DL 'set'. If you are saying we can field a unit, OK, but if you mean a quality one that can get reasonable pressure on the QB, we are either putting a lot of faith in Armstead and still lacking a starter, or we are lacking 2.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Key point:

The only part of the rookie cap that isn't already part of the existing salary cap hit is the signing bonus prorations for rookies in the first four rounds or so. Everything else replaces money that's already there.

In other words, there's only about $1 million in "unaccounted-for" money for rookies.

 

[Deus Irae]

My analysis is the same as yours. Good job. To me this is a lot of players, even without adding a defensive lineman or coverage linebacker, who so many want. However, I think that you rightly conclude that those positions are not free agency needs.
=======
My summary your stated needs.
WR - need 3
OL - need 2
RB - might need a backup or situational player
CB - need 3 (at least for camp)
S - need one (could be a draftee)

The NUMBER of free agency real needs are small. However, the positional needs are severe. We could lose three of the top free agents in the league in Welker, Talib and Vollmer. And we could lose backups from the same units in Edelman, Arrington and Thomas. And their backups in Branch and Cole.
===========================
Personally, I think that Edelman and Woodhead will be relatively easy re-signs. If we also re-sign Thomas and Arrington, then we will be even more laser focused in free agency.

Thanks for the re-statement/clarification. I'd gotten the impression that you were looking for significantly more replacements than I was. I agree with your take on this. The number is minor, but the import is major.

 

[mgteich]

If Fells were Algae Crumpler, I wouldn't consider cutting him. We'd be all set.

To me Fells is no more than Algae Crumpler. One year depth rental with little to offer outside the blocking game.

Best to get someone with more upside

 

[Ring 6]

Would you use serious free agency money on the DL instead of on corners, wide receivers and offensive linemen?

I suggest that we will draft a DL or two.

We need to improve the DL and particularly the pass rush.
I would put 3 needs equally high: WR (Welker) DB (I'm good with either a very corner or very good safety) and DL that can rush the passer.

I don't believe the right thing to do is ignore the DL because we have medicore guys.

The pass rush is just as bad as the coverage.

 

[patsinthesnow]

After what I saw most of the season and again in the AFCCG I don't know how we can consider DL 'set'. If you are saying we can field a unit, OK, but if you mean a quality one that can get reasonable pressure on the QB, we are either putting a lot of faith in Armstead and still lacking a starter, or we are lacking 2.

The Pats D-line was 15th in the league in sacks with 37 and 6th in the league vs. the run (3.9ypc). That's a pretty damn good D-line considering our best pass rusher was an injured rookie.

DE: Jones, Ninkovich, Francis
DT: Wilfork, Deaderick, Love
DT/DE: Armstead

Camp competition: Cunningham, Bequette, Bernard, Pryor.

Jones was drafted to be that 12-16 sack All-Pro. There are only a few secondary pass rushers that got more than 8 sacks as Ninkovich did. I'm just not seeing the room.

The Ravens OL is elite, stonewalling Justin and Aldon Smith. Without Jones, its amazing we even got one sack on that unit.

 

[Ring 6]

The Pats D-line was 15th in the league in sacks with 37 and 6th in the league vs. the run (3.9ypc). That's a pretty damn good D-line considering our best pass rusher was an injured rookie.

7 of the 37 sacks were in the Miami game. 15th in the league doesnt get me excited.
Allowing 3 straight TD drives totalling 197yards while only forcing 1 3rd down in the AFCCG doesnt reek of 'pretty damn good' to me.
We had the #1 offense in the NFL by almost every measure and people want to rip it apart, and you are saying leave the DL alone because we were average in sacks? You can't think we were average in pressure or that the pass rush wasn't an epic fail in the AFCCG, can you?

DE: Jones, Ninkovich, Francis
DT: Wilfork, Deaderick, Love
DT/DE: Armstead

Camp competition: Cunningham, Bequette, Bernard, Pryor.

Jones was drafted to be that 12-16 sack All-Pro. There are only a few secondary pass rushers that got more than 8 sacks as Ninkovich did. I'm just not seeing the room.

Ninkovich is mediocre at best. We have almost zero inside pass rush at all.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Edelman and Talib would be my priorities in FA.

Edelman is a younger, more explosive Welker. He isn't as nearly as durable, but he'll be way cheaper to keep.
Talib is key to our secondary. If we don't re-sign him, get ready for another Rookie and some UDFA's like Arrington getting roasted in our secondary. Maybe some more JAGs like Shawn Springs a couple years ago.

 

[Deus Irae]

The Pats D-line was 15th in the league in sacks with 37 and 6th in the league vs. the run (3.9ypc). That's a pretty damn good D-line considering our best pass rusher was an injured rookie.

DE: Jones, Ninkovich, Francis
DT: Wilfork, Deaderick, Love
DT/DE: Armstead

Camp competition: Cunningham, Bequette, Bernard, Pryor.

Jones was drafted to be that 12-16 sack All-Pro. There are only a few secondary pass rushers that got more than 8 sacks as Ninkovich did. I'm just not seeing the room.

The Ravens OL is elite, stonewalling Justin and Aldon Smith. Without Jones, its amazing we even got one sack on that unit.

The thing about DL/LB questions is that we don't know if they're going to stay with the 4-3/modified 4-3, or return to a more normal use of the 3-4. If they go back to the 3-4, for example, the DT position will be set with Wilfork and Love, and the questions will be about the DEs. If they stay with more 4-3 concepts, they'll probably look for a DT for the rotation (especially for passing downs) and, probably, also a DE to rotate in for Ninkovich on running downs. Those should be lower priority targets, IMO, partly because of the signings we've already seen and partly because improvement from Hightower and Jones should help shore things up.

Personally, I see them more as wants than needs for this year. I'm looking for the team to focus on the lines next year.

 

[Ring 6]

Edelman and Talib would be my priorities in FA.


We just can't win the big games with Welker.

By that yardstick we can't win big games with any of the 52 players on our roster not named Tom Brady.(or Wilfork one time)
Interesting that you chose the guy who has been the next best player on the team to attach the blame to.

Woodhead is decent but somewhat expendable. If the price is too much, he can walk.

He is a good piece to have, but replacable if too expensive.

 

[Deus Irae]

...We just can't win the big games with Welker...

In four playoff seasons with the Patriots, Welker's only played in a single 'one-and-done' season, and that was the 2010 game where Brady threw an unpressured INT to a back and Crumpler dropped an easy TD pass, so the team can clearly win "the big games" with him.

While it's true that Welker's had a couple of important drops, so have other receivers. Welker is averaging better than 7 receptions per game in the playoffs, which equates to 123 catches over the course of 16 games. He's also rung up 686 yards in those 9 games, which would be a 1220 yard season.

Welker's not the problem.

 

[patsinthesnow]

7 of the 37 sacks were in the Miami game. 15th in the league doesnt get me excited.
Allowing 3 straight TD drives totalling 197yards while only forcing 1 3rd down in the AFCCG doesnt reek of 'pretty damn good' to me.
We had the #1 offense in the NFL by almost every measure and people want to rip it apart, and you are saying leave the DL alone because we were average in sacks? You can't think we were average in pressure or that the pass rush wasn't an epic fail in the AFCCG, can you?




Ninkovich is mediocre at best. We have almost zero inside pass rush at all.

Cherry picking is stupid. If Jones is healthy the whole year we have 42 sacks and the team is top 10.

I think without Jones we did all we could. That's like the Giants line without JPP, game over.

We just disagree on Ninkovich. I see him as a 10 sack guy next year whos decent-good vs. the run.

The thing about DL/LB questions is that we don't know if they're going to stay with the 4-3/modified 4-3, or return to a more normal use of the 3-4. If they go back to the 3-4, for example, the DT position will be set with Wilfork and Love, and the questions will be about the DEs. If they stay with more 4-3 concepts, they'll probably look for a DT for the rotation (especially for passing downs) and, probably, also a DE to rotate in for Ninkovich on running downs. Those should be lower priority targets, IMO, partly because of the signings we've already seen and partly because improvement from Hightower and Jones should help shore things up.

Personally, I see them more as wants than needs for this year. I'm looking for the team to focus on the lines next year.

I agree with this. I'd love Star Loutelei or Henry Melton to boost the interior pass rush, but its simply not happening. Furthermore, I don't think we can afford to draft a DL in round one or 2, we gotta live with what we got. The FA cap has to go towards WR and CB too.