Numbers indict D

[BlitzFritz]

I am a fan of statistical analysis. i thought this was pretty interesting amongst all the hysteria we are generating, myself included

what jumped out for me

1. Last in the league in giving up big pass plays (2nd year in a row)

2. Last in the league on first down D (giving up at least 4 yrds) !!!! who knew

other thoughts?

Looking at the 2012 Patriots by the numbers - Patriots - Boston.com


-- FRITZ

 

[RayClay]

I am a fan of statistical analysis. i thought this was pretty interesting amongst all the hysteria we are generating, myself included

what jumped out for me

1. Last in the league in giving up big pass plays (2nd year in a row)

2. Last in the league on first down D (giving up at least 4 yrds) !!!! who knew

other thoughts?

Looking at the 2012 Patriots by the numbers - Patriots - Boston.com


-- FRITZ

I'm guessing there are more defensive statistics than those two.

If you used all relevant statistics in context, it still wouldn't tell you a lot, because football isn't a game that can be measured competitively (meaning, whatever method you use that fits your players and results in more wins [not more points, yards, 2nd down efficiency or whatever] is what you should employ and try to improve on. For example, a team with a running offense that controls the ball might employ a different defense than a long passing team, short passing team etc. The colts had a bunch of ham and eggers who were fast, but always had great pass rushers. They didn't think teams could get enough points to match Peyton by running.

Our defense is still green as hell. Two of our top de pass rushers are babies. Our linebackers are all young. Our secondary is a work in progress that at least is improving. Our D is still developing after turning over from years of a great core that aged. Developing an identity and a successful formula that combine with our offense for wins is what we we should look for and it requires intelligent judgment of our goals, not just statistics, though they can be useful in context of our goals.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I am a fan of statistical analysis. i thought this was pretty interesting amongst all the hysteria we are generating, myself included

what jumped out for me

1. Last in the league in giving up big pass plays (2nd year in a row)

2. Last in the league on first down D (giving up at least 4 yrds) !!!! who knew

other thoughts?

Looking at the 2012 Patriots by the numbers - Patriots - Boston.com


-- FRITZ

I'd be interested to see how those numbers break down across the two halves of the season.

 

[patriot1136]

I'd be interested to see how those numbers break down across the two halves of the season.

Same here. But it is encouraging

 

[The Boston Patriot]

On a more positive note, they exceeded my expectations last season. I am encouraged and will be even more so if they can only shore up the secondary and either get a real D coordinator or give the guy some serious help. A little more stability and muscle on the O-line wouldn't hurt either.

 

[IllegalContact]

the problem is that the FO has gone trigger happy with making changes on the defensive roster.

this offseason, I would really try to limit the changes to:
- DT.....an upgrade to Love/Deaderick
- LB..... better coverage than spikes
- SS ..... replace chung

my biggest reason for keeping talib would be to build some continuity as he did pretty well back there

I though about upgrading ninko, but he bring the versatility of his exerience as an LB......with him you can have an invisible 3-4 or at least introduce osme confusion with some zone blitzing by bringing an LB and putting him into coverage

is it me, or should hightower and ninko switch spots?

 

[supafly]

either get a real D coordinator or give the guy some serious help.

I'm guessing there are 31 other teams in the NFL who would gladly sign up for the "serious help" that Matt Patricia often gets, considering his name is Bill Belichick.

I do agree with the optimism and the progression though, and this season was surely a tale of two halves.

In the end we went from 15th in scoring defense all the way down to 9th, so that is certainly reason for hope.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm guessing there are 31 other teams in the NFL who would gladly sign up for the "serious help" that Matt Patricia often gets, considering his name is Bill Belichick.

I do agree with the optimism and the progression though, and this season was surely a tale of two halves.

In the end we went from 15th in scoring defense all the way down to 9th, so that is certainly reason for hope.

I'm with you on this....

Without any re-signs or additions, next year's defensive lineup looks something like:

Wilfork/Love (DT)
Ninkovich/Jones (DE)
Hightower/Spikes/Mayo (LB)
Dennard/McCourty/Gregory(Wilson?) (DB)

So, even at the start of the offseason, while counting the recent additions strictly as backups, the team is already down to needing only 2-3 players (Cover LB, pass rusher, possible DT or S), and it was the youngest defense in the league last year. Optimism is in order even if we only look at the potential improvement in the youngest players (Jones/Dennard/Wilson/Spikes/Hightower/McCourty). Bring back Talib, or find a replacement CB1, and that should be a top 10 defense or darned near, both in points and overall "I think they are", if you know what I mean.

 

[Kontradiction]

the problem is that the FO has gone trigger happy with making changes on the defensive roster.

this offseason, I would really try to limit the changes to:
- DT.....an upgrade to Love/Deaderick
- LB..... better coverage than spikes
- SS ..... replace chung

my biggest reason for keeping talib would be to build some continuity as he did pretty well back there

I though about upgrading ninko, but he bring the versatility of his exerience as an LB......with him you can have an invisible 3-4 or at least introduce osme confusion with some zone blitzing by bringing an LB and putting him into coverage

is it me, or should hightower and ninko switch spots?

Hightower's hand was rarely if ever in the turf at Alabama, so it would be unnatural to put him in that position now. I agree with the top three needs that you listed, but a pass rusher would be nice.

 

[eom]

I am a fan of statistical analysis. i thought this was pretty interesting amongst all the hysteria we are generating, myself included

what jumped out for me

1. Last in the league in giving up big pass plays (2nd year in a row)

2. Last in the league on first down D (giving up at least 4 yrds) !!!! who knew

other thoughts?

Looking at the 2012 Patriots by the numbers - Patriots - Boston.com


-- FRITZ

I don't think that's really news, but I find the most interesting piece to be the big pass play fails, when you know that's the first thing belichick wants to prevent.
of course, when you have all these issues in the secondary and limited pass rush, plus teams trying to keep pace with the league's top offense, you're going to end with those results.

the biggest issue is that we probably need a safety, and we might lose 2 of our top 3 corners -- that's no secret.
we've got 2nd year guys in the front 7 who figure to improve, plus a couple new guys added, already.

 

[Bhelmet]

I would like to see a more disruptive pass rush. Not necessarily more sacks, but one that "could" get to the QB on any play. A pass rush that can consistently close the pocket and wreak havoc through deflections and QB hits/hurries would be nice. I am excited for FA and the draft to see if this is addressed.

 

[letekro]

Hightower's hand was rarely if ever in the turf at Alabama, so it would be unnatural to put him in that position now. I agree with the top three needs that you listed, but a pass rusher would be nice.

Hightower needs to stay put and shed 10-15 pounds to be at optimal effectiveness. He was carrying way too much weight this year.

 

[Kontradiction]

Hightower needs to stay put and shed 10-15 pounds to be at optimal effectiveness. He was carrying way too much weight this year.

My concern, if he did that, would be his ability to shed blocks with the effectiveness that he showed at times last season.

 

[mgteich]

You say that all we need is a cover LB, pass-rusher and possibly a DT or S.

I would say that we NEED 3 corners to replace Talib, Arrington and Cole. We also need a safety to replace Chung. And that would bring us back to the personnel of last year.

I believe that your needs are "wants". Obviously, we could use upgrades at these positions.

I'm with you on this....

Without any re-signs or additions, next year's defensive lineup looks something like:

Wilfork/Love (DT)
Ninkovich/Jones (DE)
Hightower/Spikes/Mayo (LB)
Dennard/McCourty/Gregory(Wilson?) (DB)

So, even at the start of the offseason, while counting the recent additions strictly as backups, the team is already down to needing only 2-3 players (Cover LB, pass rusher, possible DT or S), and it was the youngest defense in the league last year. Optimism is in order even if we only look at the potential improvement in the youngest players (Jones/Dennard/Wilson/Spikes/Hightower/McCourty). Bring back Talib, or find a replacement CB1, and that should be a top 10 defense or darned near, both in points and overall "I think they are", if you know what I mean.

 

[Deus Irae]

You say that all we need is a cover LB, pass-rusher and possibly a DT or S.

I would say that we NEED 3 corners to replace Talib, Arrington and Cole. We also need a safety to replace Chung. And that would bring us back to the personnel of last year.

I believe that your needs are "wants". Obviously, we could use upgrades at these positions.

As I noted bringing back Talib/replacement CB1, that sort of undercuts your Talib argument. Arrington is a backup, not a starter, and Cole? C'mon.

As for my needs being wants, given that you agree with the safety assessment, you can only be talking about the cover LB or pass rusher. You're certainly entitled to your opinion that those are not positions of need.

 

[BlitzFritz]

What i find interesting is the softness on 1 st down run D that the numbers indicate. We all know about the soft downfield pass D.

We need help at CB and S of course.

But on the run D, has our switch to a 4-3 made us softer at DE. I m,ean we have some great run D LBs.

-- FRITZ

 

[supafly]

But on the run D, has our switch to a 4-3 made us softer at DE. I m,ean we have some great run D LBs.

-- FRITZ

One could argue that they just haven't been able to replace the loss of Seymour too, so that comes into play.