Aqib Talib's Payday: How Much Will He Get?

[Urgent]

In the Front Seven Is Fine discussion, there was a tangent on using the Pats available cap space, and questions on how much Talib will earn.

Let's focus on that.

Here are the payday's from last year's top five free agent corners:

WalterFootball.com: 2012 NFL Free Agents - Cornerbacks

Ladarius Webb - Re-signed with Ravens (6 years, $50 million; $10 million guaranteed)

Brandon Carr - Signed with Cowboys (5 years, $50.1 million)

Courtland Finnegan - Signed with Rams (5 years, $50 million)

Carlos Rodgers - Signed with 49ers (4 years, $29.3 million)

Brent Grimes - Franchised by Falcons (1 year, $10 million)

The average is $9.1mm for five years.

In the same overview, Talib is listed as the #2 corner available in free agency.

WalterFootball.com: 2013 NFL Free Agents - Cornerbacks

You have to assume he is looking for something in the range of $50mm (five years at $10mm). Possibly, due to some of the history, $9mm. Any agent will use those datapoints from 2012 as the most relevant comparables.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

I'm going to guess 4 years , 24 ml

He seems like he'd take a slight (1-2m/year) hometown discount.
His old team gave him away.
His new team is a SB contender and he's had nothing but positive things to say about them -- things he'd have no reason to say if he planned on going to the highest bidder.
Fits right in with what happened to Moss -- 1 year test run + longer discounted contract.

 

[Joey007]

Yeah I don't think he's getting 10M a year....

 

[dizi24]

If he wants 5/50, he won't be a Patriot. I wouldn't go much above 3/20 or 4/26 for him.

On the other hand, I do really hope he's back. He can't play on the level of Ty Law, but he reminds a lot of him. He matches up very well against the Bolden/Vincent Jackson/Brandon Marshall types of players that have given us fits in the past

 

[patman52]

I'm going to guess 4 years , 24 ml

He seems like he'd take a slight (1-2m/year) hometown discount.
His old team gave him away.
His new team is a SB contender and he's had nothing but positive things to say about them -- things he'd have no reason to say if he planned on going to the highest bidder.
Fits right in with what happened to Moss -- 1 year test run + longer discounted contract.

What hometown? He played what, 6 games?
His old team traded a guy for a 4th rd pick for a few games. This way if Tampa signs a free agent this year with thier 35 mill of cap room they don't lose the 3rd or 4th rd comp pick from letting him walk free.
Moss signed a 3 year deal that paid him more than the franchise amount.
The pats want Talib they will need to pay him Market, his value in the market will be somewhat limited by his substance abuse strike history and his troubled past.

4 years, 32 mill with 1/2 as a 2 stage SB is the best case for us signing him, with the team getting some protection for drug and behavior issues.

2013 8mill SB and 3 mill Salary 5 mill cap hit
2014 5mill salary 7mill cap hit
2015 8mill SB and 2 mill Salary 8 mill cap hit
2016 6 mill salary 12 mill cap hit

 

[voluntarysaftey]

Moss signed a 3 year deal that paid him more than the franchise amount.

More than the 1 year franchise amount. Less than the 2 year franchise amount.
So we basically choose to lock him up for 4 years instead of 1 year at less or 2 years at a higher annual average.
Moss definitely gave a 1-2 million annual discount compared to what he could've gotten on the market (he had just broken the td record and was an unstoppable force that year). Teams would've given him 10million

 

[Brady2Moss]

I think we should franchise him and see what the defense is like with him for a whole year, then give him the money if its a success. This lets us see if he can stay out of trouble and more importantly stay on the field and be healthy.

So my guess is 1 year 10.668 million

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm going to guess 4 years , 24 ml

He seems like he'd take a slight (1-2m/year) hometown discount.
His old team gave him away.
His new team is a SB contender and he's had nothing but positive things to say about them -- things he'd have no reason to say if he planned on going to the highest bidder.
Fits right in with what happened to Moss -- 1 year test run + longer discounted contract.

Moss' contract wasn't discounted. At the time it was top 3-5 WR money. I know the Eagles were supposedly interested and reportedly were willing to offer more average money, but it was never much more. We gave him 3 years, $27M with $15M guaranteed and $12M in signing bonus. The Eagles situation obviously didn't appeal to Moss enough to take a flyer on lasting 3 years there to collect his backend salary. I think Belichick played that whole scenario smartly, not tagging Randy so as not to force the issue and not getting into even a minor bidding war over average salary. Due to the nature of the player's psyche he wanted to see a choice made by him to remain rather than chase .

Talib's situation is different. He's had some serious behavioral issues throughout his still young career, on and off the field, as well as some durability concerns. None of which were exacerbated by financial concern or opportunity to produce - which were always at the core of Randy's concerns. And while his presence here appeared to yield immediate results, a lot of that had to do with moving McCourty to safety and the emergence of Denard. This team needs a competent veteran presence at LCB. And they have to hope that Denard doesn't suffer the kind of sophomore season so many drafted CB's who have come before him have over the last 5 seasons.

Talib is talented. Not sure just how talented based on what we observed. He also has durability and behavioral concerns. Most teams will want to account for that. But there is usually at least one who will opt to just take the flyer. We won't compete with them if that in fact becomes the case. Can't afford to. He remains one stike away from a season long suspension.

I would only extend him on a heavily incentivized deal. Perhaps 5 years $30M with $6M in signing bonus (which is forfeitable now under the new CBA if a player screws up) and salaries of $1M, option bonus of $4M in 2014, $5M in 2015-16 and $6M in 2017. To which I would add $1.6M per year in per game bonus money and the requisite half a mil pro bowl, all pro type performance incentives annually beginning in 2014 bringing the max deal total to $40M. I might also add rolling guarantees on future earnings annually beginning in 2015. And perhaps $2M per in roster bonuses in 2015-17 which would up the porential overall ante to $46M. In other words a solid prove it deal that gets him close to the average of the top 5 corners in the league over the last 5 years (current tag $10M). He'd average $9M per on the deal if he holds up his end and earns it.

Potential max cap hits on that deal would be $3.8M (initial cap hit $2.2M) in 2013, $4.8M in 2014, $10.8M in 2015-16, and $11.8M 2017 assuming he makes all his incentives - in which case he'd be well worth it. Could walk away after one season with a dead cap of $4M spread over 2 years and a future cap savings of $29M or after two seasons with a dead cap of $6M spread over two years and a future cap savings of $22M.

Other than that I'd target another veteran FA to fill that slot. I think it would be OK to target someone who could earn that contract or close to it, but I'm not sure that is what they absolutely need. Just a solid cover corner, not an all pro. Because there remain some improvements (pass rush and cover wise) that can be made in the front 7 and perhaps at safety via the draft and FA that could help the secondary as well. Not to mention having a healthy Jones.

And they should continue to look for diamonds in the rough like Denard in the draft because CB is an expensive proposition to maintain these days in the NFL and teams need to have at least 3 solidly above average ones to compete.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Let him hit free agency and find out his worth.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think we should franchise him and see what the defense is like with him for a whole year, then give him the money if its a success. This lets us see if he can stay out of trouble and more importantly stay on the field and be healthy.

So my guess is 1 year 10.668 million

Can't take that costly flyer on a guy like Talib. That money is guaranteed the minute he signs the tag and that money is on the cap the moment they tender it. Even if he holds out into preseason, and with a guy like him you either want him under your thumb all off season or it's a crap shoot what happens between now and next September.

Vollmer is a better bet to tag as the only concern with him is health. Then of course there is Welker who somehow always manages to show up and earn his keep. Talib would be the last of the three I'd tag, and frankly I wouldn't tag any. Find a true middle ground and get at least 2 if not all three signed to manageable longer term deals.

 

[Brady2Moss]

Can't take that costly flyer on a guy like Talib. That money is guaranteed the minute he signs the tag and that money is on the cap the moment they tender it. Even if he holds out into preseason, and with a guy like him you either want him under your thumb all off season or it's a crap shoot what happens between now and next September.

Vollmer is a better bet to tag as the only concern with him is health. Then of course there is Welker who somehow always manages to show up and earn his keep. Talib would be the last of the three I'd tag, and frankly I wouldn't tag any. Find a true middle ground and get at least 2 if not all three signed to manageable longer term deals.

I can't see us tagging Welker because I think the team wants a different kind of receiver for the money he wants. Vollmer would be a good bet too my rational for tagging Talib was more because we can probably replace Vollmer, but I sure as hell know we can't replace Talib given how our team drafts CBs

 

[Ivan]

I think some hard up team will go 4-32. Adios Aquib.

 

[Ring 6]

In the Front Seven Is Fine discussion, there was a tangent on using the Pats available cap space, and questions on how much Talib will earn.

Let's focus on that.

Here are the payday's from last year's top five free agent corners:

WalterFootball.com: 2012 NFL Free Agents - Cornerbacks

Ladarius Webb - Re-signed with Ravens (6 years, $50 million; $10 million guaranteed)

Brandon Carr - Signed with Cowboys (5 years, $50.1 million)

Courtland Finnegan - Signed with Rams (5 years, $50 million)

Carlos Rodgers - Signed with 49ers (4 years, $29.3 million)

Brent Grimes - Franchised by Falcons (1 year, $10 million)

The average is $9.1mm for five years.

In the same overview, Talib is listed as the #2 corner available in free agency.

WalterFootball.com: 2013 NFL Free Agents - Cornerbacks

You have to assume he is looking for something in the range of $50mm (five years at $10mm). Possibly, due to some of the history, $9mm. Any agent will use those datapoints from 2012 as the most relevant comparables.

I see zero chance that Talib gets anywhere near those kind of deals. He has serious off the field baggage and trouble staying on the field.
Rogers is a better corner. The cost of baggage maybe not be reflected in the contract total but that is only is they put 2 or 3 big salary phony years on the end.
None of those 5 are good examples IMO


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[Ring 6]

I think some hard up team will go 4-32. Adios Aquib.

Hard up for what?



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[Ivan]

Hard up for what?



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Gee Andy, I don't know, running backs?

 

[Triumph]

Yeah I don't think he's getting 10M a year....

I dont either or the 10+ mil Franchise tag for all of 2013.

If the Pats do Tag Talib, it will be to buy time and work out a more friendly deal or to trade him and get compensation back.

 

[Joey007]

I think some hard up team will go 4-32. Adios Aquib.

If he's gone we better SIGN his replacement. No more rookie starters in the secondary. If he's gone I think Brent Grimes with his injury history could come cheaper than people think.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

If he's gone we better SIGN his replacement. No more rookie starters in the secondary. If he's gone I think Brent Grimes with his injury history could come cheaper than people think.

problem is...pats have failed to see this as a problem..they love young CBs that make mistakes as of late. Hopefully the talib try out made them turn their heads to the idea that they need someone good back there for them to get back to the big stage

 

[supafly]

If he's gone we better SIGN his replacement. No more rookie starters in the secondary. If he's gone I think Brent Grimes with his injury history could come cheaper than people think.

I think that it's quite the opposite actually. I think that Grimes' reputation alone gets him more money than Talib.

I'm not seeing an "injury history" either. I'm seeing a guy who missed a few games last season and got hurt this year, other than that he's been rather durable.

Grimes went to the probowl and had back to back seasons with 5 INT and 6 INT. On top of that he had 50 passes defended in a three season span.

I think many are undervaluing Grimes' worth and overvaluing Talib's worth, although I do agree with you that Grimes' injury will hurt his stock somewhat too, that's a given. In the end I still think that he gets more than Talib.

 

[supafly]

In the Front Seven Is Fine discussion, there was a tangent on using the Pats available cap space, and questions on how much Talib will earn.

Let's focus on that.

Here are the payday's from last year's top five free agent corners:

WalterFootball.com: 2012 NFL Free Agents - Cornerbacks

Ladarius Webb - Re-signed with Ravens (6 years, $50 million; $10 million guaranteed)

Brandon Carr - Signed with Cowboys (5 years, $50.1 million)

Courtland Finnegan - Signed with Rams (5 years, $50 million)

Carlos Rodgers - Signed with 49ers (4 years, $29.3 million)

Brent Grimes - Franchised by Falcons (1 year, $10 million)

The average is $9.1mm for five years.

In the same overview, Talib is listed as the #2 corner available in free agency.

WalterFootball.com: 2013 NFL Free Agents - Cornerbacks

You have to assume he is looking for something in the range of $50mm (five years at $10mm). Possibly, due to some of the history, $9mm. Any agent will use those datapoints from 2012 as the most relevant comparables.

Somebody's getting way too caught up in the Aqib Talib media hype...

I'm interested in knowing just what he exactly did to go from extreme malcontent and suspended player who was in danger of getting cut from Tampa Bay (with an offseason full of a potential murder charge) to suddenly belonging in the upper echelon tier of CB's like Finnegan/Carr?

Was it seeing him with that big jacket standing on the sidelines as his teammates watched in horror as their SB dreams were dashed in the biggest game of the year? Or was it the other 4-5 games where he played oft-injured and sparingly?

If anything he belongs towards the bottom of your list, somewhere between the 29 million that Rogers got and the 10 million that Grimes received, and that's most likely what he'll get.

If not for the constant media overeaction and great exposure of the NEP, Talib would be lucky to be thinking about 4 million aav per year. Instead I think he boosted his stock up enough to warrant someone overpaying and taking a chance on him on a smaller deal worth something in the early to mid 20's. He won't make 1/2 of what Finnegan and Carr's contracts are worth.