SBB's Offseason Hopes

[signbabybrady]

OK so here is the way I see it. We were in the SB last year and AFC Championship this year so clearly we are very close and one could argue continued improvement from the youth on this team and health could be all we need to get over the hump. So my priorities list is not huge nor do I think it is vital to fil every item on my list.

We have 18.6 mil in available cap space and those more wise than me can speak to how much else we could free up. I see this as being enough money to do almost anything within their usual M.O.

So here it is Priorities should be as follows.
1) Retention in this order Welker, Talib, Volmer. Now as I said above nothing on my priorities list is vital to being able to win a SB next year but depending on how retention plays out that would come down a bit. You might already have Volmers replacement in Cannon but if Welker or Talib walk then replacing them does become vital. If these three guys are back I see no reason that health alone couldnt be the difference that puts us over the top.

2) Help in the Defensive backfield. With Gregory, McCourty, Talib and Dennard you were pretty good in the secodary but they weren't all healthy so adding to your depth here is one of the more critical problems we should be looking to fix. Because of the versatility of McCourty this can be done in a lot of ways but it should be a veteran that we can count and not a draft pick. I am fine with drafting one but We need someone we can count on.

3) Help at WR. Wes and Lloyd are more than enough when Gronk and Hernandez are healthy and Ballard should allow you to stay 2 TE even when they are not so WR3 should play a smaller percentage next year but depth at the position is still greatly needed and we would all love that guy who can threaten the deep part of the field. As long as Wes is back this can be a Vet or a draft pick but if Wes is gone the priority here becomes huge and you probably need both.

4) An interior DL. I think someone to play the Fanene spot would be nice. Maybe Armstead can do it but another vet would be great.

5) OL. specifically interior but if Volmer walks a swing tackle becomes a must but this could be a rook or vet with its importance lying in what you think Cannon is capable of. I think this is very low on the list but until Volmer is retained it belongs on the list.

Now I dont think the 18.6 (plus whatever else you can squeeze from restructures) is enough to buy everything in the above points but I think combined with what is on the team there is no reason to think we cant win a SB next year if even half of that happens.

 

[ausbacker]

I have one major want this offseason; a vastly upgraded defense. That's it. The other needs are minor in comparison.

 

[borg]

I have one major want this offseason; a vastly upgraded defense. That's it. The other needs are minor in comparison.

Points scored in the 5 playoff losses since 2007

14.....vs Giants '07 SB....scoring 22.8 points less than regular season average
14.....vs Ravens '09........scoring 12.7 points less
21.....vs Jets '10.............scoring 11.4 points less
17.....vs Giants '11 SB......scoring 15.4 points less
13.....vs Ravens '12..........scoring 21.8 points less

The median points/game in the league this year was 23.5 points. The Patriots scored 10 points below the median vs the Ravens.

An interesting comparison is the 2007-2010 Colts that racked up huge regular season records only to come up small offensively during each year's playoff loss. But these Colts actually scored a couple points better in their losses than NE

 

[ausbacker]

Points scored in the 5 playoff losses since 2007

14.....vs Giants '07 SB....scoring 22.8 points less than regular season average
14.....vs Ravens '09........scoring 12.7 points less
21.....vs Jets '10.............scoring 11.4 points less
17.....vs Giants '11 SB......scoring 15.4 points less
13.....vs Ravens '12..........scoring 21.8 points less

The median points/game in the league this year was 23.5 points. The Patriots scored 10 points below the median vs the Ravens.

An interesting comparison is the 2007-2010 Colts that racked up huge regular season records only to come up small offensively during each year's playoff loss. But these Colts actually scored a couple points better in their losses than NE

I'm not as concerned with the O as I am with the D. A healthy Gronk goes a long way to alleviating the red zone issues that plagued the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. The collection of talent and depth on D on the other hand...

 

[fgssand]

OK so here is the way I see it. We were in the SB last year and AFC Championship this year so clearly we are very close and one could argue continued improvement from the youth on this team and health could be all we need to get over the hump. So my priorities list is not huge nor do I think it is vital to fil every item on my list.

We have 18.6 mil in available cap space and those more wise than me can speak to how much else we could free up. I see this as being enough money to do almost anything within their usual M.O.

So here it is Priorities should be as follows.
1) Retention in this order Welker, Talib, Volmer. Now as I said above nothing on my priorities list is vital to being able to win a SB next year but depending on how retention plays out that would come down a bit. You might already have Volmers replacement in Cannon but if Welker or Talib walk then replacing them does become vital. If these three guys are back I see no reason that health alone couldnt be the difference that puts us over the top.

2) Help in the Defensive backfield. With Gregory, McCourty, Talib and Dennard you were pretty good in the secodary but they weren't all healthy so adding to your depth here is one of the more critical problems we should be looking to fix. Because of the versatility of McCourty this can be done in a lot of ways but it should be a veteran that we can count and not a draft pick. I am fine with drafting one but We need someone we can count on.

3) Help at WR. Wes and Lloyd are more than enough when Gronk and Hernandez are healthy and Ballard should allow you to stay 2 TE even when they are not so WR3 should play a smaller percentage next year but depth at the position is still greatly needed and we would all love that guy who can threaten the deep part of the field. As long as Wes is back this can be a Vet or a draft pick but if Wes is gone the priority here becomes huge and you probably need both.

4) An interior DL. I think someone to play the Fanene spot would be nice. Maybe Armstead can do it but another vet would be great.

5) OL. specifically interior but if Volmer walks a swing tackle becomes a must but this could be a rook or vet with its importance lying in what you think Cannon is capable of. I think this is very low on the list but until Volmer is retained it belongs on the list.

Now I dont think the 18.6 (plus whatever else you can squeeze from restructures) is enough to buy everything in the above points but I think combined with what is on the team there is no reason to think we cant win a SB next year if even half of that happens.

Cant argue with much there SBB.........

Assuming we sign Talib -- we need D backs & cover LB'er to stop automatic first downs across the middle

Assuming we sign Welker -- we need a guy that can stretch the field and catch the ball (Stallworth?).

No matter what we need a pass rush, maybe Armstead can help here, possibly the other CFL kid.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

I have one major want this offseason; a vastly upgraded defense. That's it. The other needs are minor in comparison.

I dont understand why people cry about the defense when our offense only put up 13 points against the Ravens.



How about a WR?

 

[ivanvamp]

I have one major want this offseason; a vastly upgraded defense. That's it. The other needs are minor in comparison.

What if the cost of doing it is the loss of Welker, and with no roughly comparable replacement? In other words, what if, in order to get that vastly upgraded defense, the Pats needed to use their cap space plus Welker's money?

Say Welker was going to cost them $11 million (the franchise number, roughly). They have $18.6 million in cap space. That gives them $29.6 million to play with.

Say they re-sign Talib and add one of either Byrd, Goldsen, or Phillips. Together, those guys, say, run $20 million. (total guess). That would give them a secondary of Talib, Dennard, McCourty, and Byrd/Goldsen/Phillips. That would be pretty amazing. Then use the rest to re-sign Vollmer and sign the rookies.

So the defense would be significantly better, IMO, with Talib here for a full season and adding a dynamic safety to complement McCourty.

But the cost of getting that might be losing Welker, and having Edelman in his place.

If that was the scenario (or something like it), would you be ok with it?

 

[ivanvamp]

Points scored in the 5 playoff losses since 2007

14.....vs Giants '07 SB....scoring 22.8 points less than regular season average
14.....vs Ravens '09........scoring 12.7 points less
21.....vs Jets '10.............scoring 11.4 points less
17.....vs Giants '11 SB......scoring 15.4 points less
13.....vs Ravens '12..........scoring 21.8 points less

The median points/game in the league this year was 23.5 points. The Patriots scored 10 points below the median vs the Ravens.

An interesting comparison is the 2007-2010 Colts that racked up huge regular season records only to come up small offensively during each year's playoff loss. But these Colts actually scored a couple points better in their losses than NE

Points allowed in those five losses:

'07 NYG: 17
'09 Bal: 33
'10 NYJ: 28
'11 NYG: 21
'12 Bal: 28

So it's not like the defense is really shutting people down in these losses, either. But I'm with you for the most part - during the regular season, the defense tends to be the weaker of the two units, but during the playoffs, it's usually the offense that comes up the smallest.

Weird.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

What if the cost of doing it is the loss of Welker, and with no roughly comparable replacement? In other words, what if, in order to get that vastly upgraded defense, the Pats needed to use their cap space plus Welker's money?

Say Welker was going to cost them $11 million (the franchise number, roughly). They have $18.6 million in cap space. That gives them $29.6 million to play with.

Say they re-sign Talib and add one of either Byrd, Goldsen, or Phillips. Together, those guys, say, run $20 million. (total guess). That would give them a secondary of Talib, Dennard, McCourty, and Byrd/Goldsen/Phillips. That would be pretty amazing. Then use the rest to re-sign Vollmer and sign the rookies.

So the defense would be significantly better, IMO, with Talib here for a full season and adding a dynamic safety to complement McCourty.

But the cost of getting that might be losing Welker, and having Edelman in his place.

If that was the scenario (or something like it), would you be ok with it?

The cost of keeping Welker is subtracted from and not added to their cap space...

If they don't keep him they have roughly $16M with which to replace him and/or replace their other FA and sign their 2013 draftees before adding anyone else. It wouldn't cost $20M against the cap to sign Talib and one of the safeties. That said, it would cost most of your cap pending extensions or restructures that could net another $10-12M in cap space. However with that you have to add personnel to remotely replace Welker's production, not to mention you have to extend or replace Vollmer and Arrington and Woodhead and Edelman. Not enough cap space to do all that.

 

[Ring 6]

I know its not popular in a place where people like to think there is an easy answer to every question, but seriously, with VERY FEW exceptions, winning the SB has really come down to having a team that is good enough to compete against the best teams, and then simply having good days in the playoffs. Playing your best, having the right matchup, getting momentum, bounces, etc.

If you really look at it, the NFL just does not have teams that are a cut above all the rest and just have to show up to win.
Players and teams have good days and bad days (and there are tons of reasons including the ones listed above that lead to it) and its not a matter of choking or 'rising above'. Look at the remarkale difference in outcomes between the same teams on different days.

The Patriots are and have been good enough to win the SB, and aren't and probably won't be so good that they can't lose.
The 'key' to the offseason is to take the roster that is now under contract, the draft picks and cap room available (including what can be freed up) and get the best football players it can get.
Improving players at any position improveds the team, and makes status quo at another position less of a concern.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I dont understand why people cry about the defense when our offense only put up 13 points against the Ravens.



How about a WR?

Offense and defense go hand and hand during the playoffs. A good defense can turn the tide of the game by limiting the time of possession of the opposing offense,changing field position. Hence giving your offense more opportunities to find their rhythm etc. Baltimore killed us in top in the 2nd half.

I agree with the deep threat wr who they should be able to get in the draft.

 

[ausbacker]

What if the cost of doing it is the loss of Welker, and with no roughly comparable replacement? In other words, what if, in order to get that vastly upgraded defense, the Pats needed to use their cap space plus Welker's money?

Say Welker was going to cost them $11 million (the franchise number, roughly). They have $18.6 million in cap space. That gives them $29.6 million to play with.

Say they re-sign Talib and add one of either Byrd, Goldsen, or Phillips. Together, those guys, say, run $20 million. (total guess). That would give them a secondary of Talib, Dennard, McCourty, and Byrd/Goldsen/Phillips. That would be pretty amazing. Then use the rest to re-sign Vollmer and sign the rookies.

So the defense would be significantly better, IMO, with Talib here for a full season and adding a dynamic safety to complement McCourty.

But the cost of getting that might be losing Welker, and having Edelman in his place.

If that was the scenario (or something like it), would you be ok with it?

I'm prepared to lose Welker if it makes the team (as a whole) better. That's the question the FO has to address. What makes the team better?

In a perfect world the team can keep Welker and find some impact players on the cheap. Here's hoping.

 

[Deus Irae]

What if the cost of doing it is the loss of Welker, and with no roughly comparable replacement? In other words, what if, in order to get that vastly upgraded defense, the Pats needed to use their cap space plus Welker's money?

Say Welker was going to cost them $11 million (the franchise number, roughly). They have $18.6 million in cap space. That gives them $29.6 million to play with.

Say they re-sign Talib and add one of either Byrd, Goldsen, or Phillips. Together, those guys, say, run $20 million. (total guess). That would give them a secondary of Talib, Dennard, McCourty, and Byrd/Goldsen/Phillips. That would be pretty amazing. Then use the rest to re-sign Vollmer and sign the rookies.

So the defense would be significantly better, IMO, with Talib here for a full season and adding a dynamic safety to complement McCourty.

But the cost of getting that might be losing Welker, and having Edelman in his place.

If that was the scenario (or something like it), would you be ok with it?

I've answered this post of yours in another thread, as you seem to be tossing it around all over the place. Now, let me try to get a response about it from you:

1.) What's wrong with drafting a safety instead of paying for what's on the market?

2.) How do you expect people to quantify the loss of Welker, cost of basic replacement, cost of system overhaul, cost of QB comfort, and all other incidentals?

3.) Without worrying about your cap math, why on Earth would it cost the Patriots $20 million on the cap to sign a CB and a S?