Football Outsiders' Preview On-Line

[BelichickFan]

The only preview really worth reading. Set aside 30 minutes though :

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | AFC Championship Game Preview

A few teases :

Week 1-10 our defense was 45% worse than average on passes thrown over 20 yards. Since then it's 3% better than average.

Ravens' starting CB Cary Williams has terrible numbers, 82nd in success rate and 59th in yards per pass.

Ravens defense had the biggest gap between yards per attempt without play action to yards per attempt with play action (meaning they're terrible when facing play action.

Lots, lots more at the link.

 

[Gronkandez]

I skipped to the end where it says the Pats have a 75% chance of winning. sweet.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

From the article...

Joe Flacco Passes by Direction, 2012 (includes DPI):

left: 183 passes, 49% completions, 5.1yds/play, -22.1% DVOA
middle: 116 passes, 69% completions, 9.7yds/play, 57.1% DVOA
right: 241 passes, 63% completions, 7.8yds/play, 30.1% DVOA

I heard the "Flacco can't throw left" critique, but wow...the stats really show this.

OTOH, he looks deadly over the middle and good throwing right. Talib needs to play the receiver on Flacco's right and the Pats need to blanket the TEs.

Regards,
Chris

 

[patfanken]

This is a very informative, objective, and ultimately comforting article. Thanks for the link.

However the mediots aren't going to let a good myth be sullied by mere objective stats. What will the haters do if that weren't the case.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

If only analysis like this was the standard.

Here's to hoping for a healthy dose of the run, PA, and Lloyd Sun!

 

[mgcolby]

The only preview really worth reading. Set aside 30 minutes though :

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | AFC Championship Game Preview

A few teases :

Week 1-10 our defense was 45% worse than average on passes thrown over 20 yards. Since then it's 3% better than average.

Ravens' starting CB Cary Williams has terrible numbers, 82nd in success rate and 59th in yards per pass.

Ravens defense had the biggest gap between yards per attempt without play action to yards per attempt with play action (meaning they're terrible when facing play action.

Lots, lots more at the link.

The All 22 showed this. Reed was biting on it big time in the Broncos game.

A few observations about Reed:

1. They played him very deep between 18 and 25 yards at the snap
2. They roled him over Thomas the majority of the time, they rolled him over Decker a few times, most of the time when he wasn't roled over Thomas, was when the Broncos went Twins or Trips and when the Ravens disguised Man-1 as cover 2. In this scenario they typically would use Pollard in Man and Reed would roll deep middle.
3. Manning did a good job of using pump fakes and look offs to neutralize him
4. The Broncos for the most part took what the Ravens were giving them and Manning went under or away from Reed most of the time
5. The Moreno TD was bad for Reed, he bit hard on a pump fake to Thomas underneath and becuase of it failed at his primary over the top responsibilty
6. On a short pass to Decker on 2 and 8 with 6:14 to go in the 2nd QTR. The Broncos ran a play action, Reed bit leaving Thomas in one on one coverage and he was open because Reed bit, but Manning chose to go underneath.
7. Watching the Thomas TD on the all 22 it is clear that the TD was solely on Reed. He was the only unblocked defender, was in place to make the tackle and whiffed.
8. It was clear that Manning wasn't looking to challenge Reed
9. Reed did a good job overall of taking away the deep ball, mostly because of point 8.

Side note. The Broncos really picked on Ellerbee and Graham in coverage. I think the Pats will go at Ellerbee early and often.

 

[supafly]

The All 22 showed this. Reed was biting on it big time in the Broncos game.

A few observations about Reed:

1. They played him very deep between 18 and 25 yards at the snap
2. They roled him over Thomas the majority of the time, they rolled him over Decker a few times, most of the time when he wasn't roled over Thomas, was when the Broncos went Twins or Trips and when the Ravens disguised Man-1 as cover 2. In this scenario they typically would use Pollard in Man and Reed would roll deep middle.
3. Manning did a good job of using pump fakes and look offs to neutralize him
4. The Broncos for the most part took what the Ravens were giving them and Manning went under or away from Reed most of the time
5. The Moreno TD was bad for Reed, he bit hard on a pump fake to Thomas underneath and becuase of it failed at his primary over the top responsibilty
6. On a short pass to Decker on 2 and 8 with 6:14 to go in the 2nd QTR. The Broncos ran a play action, Reed bit leaving Thomas in one on one coverage and he was open because Reed bit, but Manning chose to go underneath.
7. Watching the Thomas TD on the all 22 it is clear that the TD was solely on Reed. He was the only unblocked defender, was in place to make the tackle and whiffed.
8. It was clear that Manning wasn't looking to challenge Reed
9. Reed did a good job overall of taking away the deep ball, mostly because of point 8.

Side note. The Broncos really picked on Ellerbee and Graham in coverage. I think the Pats will go at Ellerbee early and often.

Awesome analysis, mgcolby..thanks for this.

 

[hovis]

From the article...

Joe Flacco Passes by Direction, 2012 (includes DPI):

left: 183 passes, 49% completions, 5.1yds/play, -22.1% DVOA
middle: 116 passes, 69% completions, 9.7yds/play, 57.1% DVOA
right: 241 passes, 63% completions, 7.8yds/play, 30.1% DVOA

I heard the "Flacco can't throw left" critique, but wow...the stats really show this.

OTOH, he looks deadly over the middle and good throwing right. Talib needs to play the receiver on Flacco's right and the Pats need to blanket the TEs.

Regards,
Chris

To add to that, maybe go with a lot of Cover 3 looks and have McCourty lining up more towards left center.

 

[ausbacker]

Zero turnovers from the Patriots. That stat has to be key. I want the Baltimore D gassed before half time, the Patriots receiving the ball to begin the 3rd and a mountain to climb for Baltimore to get back into it.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Zero turnovers from the Patriots. That stat has to be key. I want the Baltimore D gassed before half time, the Patriots receiving the ball to begin the 3rd and a mountain to climb for Baltimore to get back into it.

I agree. We can break down Pats O vs. Baltimore D and vice-versa, but I think ultimately the Ravens only win if the Pats turn the ball over*.

Regards,
Chris

* Other than ints and fumbles, I consider included in turnovers the rare acts that flip the field against you on 4th down. Such as:

- Giving up special teams long returns (or worse: TDs)
- Blocked punts or bad/dropped snaps that keep Mesko from punting
- Blocked FGs that give great field position
- High-risk 4th down conversion attempts (e.g. on own 30yd line) that fail