Oddsmakers like the Broncos

[PatsFans.com Article]

Oddsmakers like the Broncos
By: John Morgan

Right now the Broncos have the best odds of any team to win the Super Bowl. Is that a product of the media's hype of Peyton Manning influencing NFL fans, or is Denver really the best bet to win it all?...

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[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Right now it's looking like the game in Denver this weekend will have temps in the teens, light wind, no precipitation.

Manning has never won a single playoff game in sub-40 degree weather in his entire life.

Baltimore does indeed suck and may not get it done, but we will.

 

[dannydyn]

Baltimore does indeed suck and may not get it done, but we will.

From your mouth to God's ears...

 

[VinnyPatrollie]

Right now it's looking like the game in Denver this weekend will have temps in the teens, light wind, no precipitation.

Manning has never won a single playoff game in sub-40 degree weather in his entire life.

Baltimore does indeed suck and may not get it done, but we will.

Plus, in his 11 trips to the postseason, he's been One and Done in the playoffs 7 times. SEVEN TIMES.

 

[Rob0729]

Odds makers set lines based on where they think the money will go, not on who they think will win.

 

[BrainTrust66]

From a bettors point of view, this in no way represents "good value" as picks go. Especially given The Forehead's postseason track record.

I know it's crazy to go against what Ashley Fox believes, but there you go...

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Based on those numbers:

Broncos- 25% chance to win it all
Patriots- 22.5% chance to win it all

Not exactly a big advantage to Denver from the oddsmakers.

 

[kennyb]

Based on those numbers:

Broncos- 25% chance to win it all
Patriots- 22.5% chance to win it all

Not exactly a big advantage to Denver from the oddsmakers.

well given that they're 8 teams, they are favored by a good bit as are the pats. The average is 12.5%, of course.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Weren't we favored last year by them?

One game at a time. I just care about getting past Houston right now.

 

[supafly]

Weren't we favored last year by them?

One game at a time. I just care about getting past Houston right now.

Yep we were, and likely in 2010 too, as they had the #1 seed both years.

The oddsmakers are simply creating the obvious choice of who has the #1 seed and HFA, since that is the team that a lot of "average" bettors and fans would be most likely to choose.

If we had the #1 seed this year, we'd have likely been the favorite too, of course where DEN ended up would certainly have mattered, and if they were #2 it may be closer than normal just due to all of the media hype + return of Manning stories that tend to reel in the general bettors and public.

 

[TyronePoole]

Odds makers set lines based on where they think the money will go, not on who they think will win.

they set lines based on where they think sharp money will go, and that means correct handicapping since it's an efficient market

 

[supafly]

they set lines based on where they think sharp money will go, and that means correct handicapping since it's an efficient market

Great point.

I was a bit surprised to see the sharp money go so heavily in the Pats side during the Dec.10th matchup. The line moved dramatically if you remember, and although I wasn't necessarily surprised to see it move higher, I was surprised to see it climb all the way from 4 to 6 in the last day or two.

I'd take it as a good sign if that happened again, but I'm not holding my breath. 9 point spreads in the playoffs are tempting to take the underdog's side.

Oddly enough, I saw an article the other day that stated that some of Vegas' sportsbooks (I think the MGM may have been an example) are actually DOWN this year for the first time in a long while. They talked of having to go to their reserves etc, which surprised me. I also think it's one of the reasons why we're seeing lines so high this week with both DEN and NE, but that's just my own opinion. The fact that all 4 faves came in last week probably didn't do much to help their cause either, and could also be a reason why the totals are also so high the past 2 weeks, as the average bettor tends to favor the "over" side.