Rematch Games

[PatsFaninAZ]

So, given that the Patriots road to a championship would include at least 2 rematch games, with a 50/50 chance of a third, I started wondering how the Patriots have done under Belichick/Brady in rematch games in the playoffs.

The numbers surprised me a bit. Every elimination game -- that is all 6 times the Patriots have been eliminated under Belichick -- was a rematch game. Patriots' overall record in rematch games in the playoffs is 8-6. Five of those wins came in the three Super Bowl championship years, with the most famous of course being the Rams. Since the last Super Bowl win, the Patriots are 3-6 in rematch games in the playoffs. I didn't break it down by whether they won or lost the regular season game.

I think there's something to the notion that rematch games level the playing field a bit. I think maybe they neutralize one of our advantages, which is coaching. We give the other team film and help them prep.

In non-rematch playoff games in the Belichick era, the Patriots are 8-0.

 

[brdmaverick]

Go Falcons!...but I guess we won't be making it that far to care.

 

[brdmaverick]

Oddly enough, in 2010 the Divisional Round included matches in which all four games were EXACT rematch games from the regular season (exact rematch includes same home team).

In all four games, the winner of the regular season game LOST the exact rematch game in the playoffs.

Those games included......

NY Jets over New England (ouch, I know) (at NE)

Chicago Bears over Seattle Seahawks (at CHI)

Green Bay Packers over Atlanta Falcons (at ATL)

Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens (at PIT)

 

[Pewsterbaby]

Great research, both a u guyz. Those are some pretty skewed numbers Texans fans cam take solace in.
Although, if 99 consecutive coin flips come up heads, the odds on the 100th are still 50/50.
Pats need to get that post '04 bug-a-boo offa their back with all of those return match-up postseason losses. It's been maddening, year after year. Enough already.

 

[Sfpat]

Except 2010 wasn't an "exact" rematch game, it was a tie-breaker. The Jets won the first time in the Meadowlands, the Pats held serve the 2nd game. Game three came down to the funny bounces of the ball (freak interception, dropped passes in endzone, rare fumble, strange fake fg, few Pats dl available for game). Essentially, everything lined up perfectly for the Jets. The Texans will need the same allignment of the stars to have a chance on Sunday.

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

I didn't break it down by whether they won or lost the regular season game.

I did (from memory FWIW)


Regular season results of playoff rematches

2001--Lost to Rams (beat in SB)
2003-- Beat Colts and Titans (beat both in playoffs)
2004--Lost to Pittsburgh, beat Colts (beat both in playoffs)
2005--Lost to Denver (lost in playoffs)
2006--Lost to Indy (lost in playoffs)
2007--Beat NYG ((&*(#)*&#^@(#)
2009--Beat Baltimore (lost in playoffs)
2010--Split with NYJ (lost in playoffs)
2011--Lost to NYG, beat Denver (lost to NYG in SB, beat Denver in playoffs)


By my count that is: 7-6 vs the teams in the regular season who they play in the playoffs...fwiw

 

[MoneyFX]

That Ravens game, Welker was injured and the team was just bad that year in 2009. In 2010, Rex Ryan made a brilliant gameplan to slow down the efficient passing attack and even got Tom Brady off his rhythm. Giants game in 2007 & 2011 super bowls could have gone either way. But in that 2007 game, the offense went from putting up 38 points to only 17.

Sometimes, I think it has to do with adjustments. When rematches like these go the other way, it has to do with the team in the postseason playing with a different gameplan than what they had in the regular season. Hopefully Coach Belichick will be aware of that against the Texans and make another gameplan that will put the team in a position to succeed. You can bet that this Texan team will be much different than the one in week 14, but I'm not so sure if Kubiak is as big a gameplan coach as is Rex Ryan.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

I did (from memory FWIW)


Regular season results of playoff rematches

2001--Lost to Rams (beat in SB)
2003-- Beat Colts and Titans (beat both in playoffs)
2004--Lost to Pittsburgh, beat Colts (beat both in playoffs)
2005--Lost to Denver (lost in playoffs)
2006--Lost to Indy (lost in playoffs)
2007--Beat NYG ((&*(#)*&#^@(#)
2009--Beat Baltimore (lost in playoffs)
2010--Split with NYJ (lost in playoffs)
2011--Lost to NYG, beat Denver (lost to NYG in SB, beat Denver in playoffs)


By my count that is: 7-6 vs the teams in the regular season who they play in the playoffs...fwiw

Beat the Jets in 06 after splitting with them.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

That Ravens game, Welker was injured and the team was just bad that year in 2009. In 2010, Rex Ryan made a brilliant gameplan to slow down the efficient passing attack and even got Tom Brady off his rhythm. Giants game in 2007 & 2011 super bowls could have gone either way. But in that 2007 game, the offense went from putting up 38 points to only 17.

Sometimes, I think it has to do with adjustments. When rematches like these go the other way, it has to do with the team in the postseason playing with a different gameplan than what they had in the regular season. Hopefully Coach Belichick will be aware of that against the Texans and make another gameplan that will put the team in a position to succeed. You can bet that this Texan team will be much different than the one in week 14, but I'm not so sure if Kubiak is as big a gameplan coach as is Rex Ryan.

Yeah, I think it is similar to the fact that division games sometimes seem tough even if there is a big disparity in talent. Bills slowed us way down the second time this year and came a horrible end zone pick from beating us at home.

Lots of it is happenstance and small sample size. Still the stat that stands way out is 8-0 when it is not a rematch. I think that gives you a good sense of what is going on. On even terms having to break down tape against other teams, Belichick is great. He loses the edge when his opposing coach gets a short cut by having head to head experience. That's my hypothesis anyway.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Solution .....

The Pats should have 16 non conference regular season games!,screw the division setup!,we need change! :rocker:

 

[ALP]

so then...we want atlanta or GB in the SB?

that 8-0 stat is very impressive

 

[brdmaverick]

Except 2010 wasn't an "exact" rematch game.

Going by the 'exact' scenario, it was.

The playoff game was that year was the second time the Jets played the Pats IN NEW ENGLAND.

We all understand that there is an element of home field advantage. After all, it's what we fight so hard for in the regular season. Generally speaking, most teams end up with as good or better home records than away records. THerefore, I thought it was worth pointing out that these were exact rematches in which the results flipped.

 

[MoneyFX]

Oddly enough, in 2010 the Divisional Round included matches in which all four games were EXACT rematch games from the regular season (exact rematch includes same home team).

In all four games, the winner of the regular season game LOST the exact rematch game in the playoffs.

Those games included......

NY Jets over New England (ouch, I know) (at NE)

Chicago Bears over Seattle Seahawks (at CHI)

Green Bay Packers over Atlanta Falcons (at ATL)

Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens (at PIT)

You also forgot that both conference championship games were like that too. The Jets beat the Steelers in the regular season 22-17 in Heinz Field but the Steelers won the rematch 24-19 in the AFC title game. The Bears beat the Packers in Soldier field 20-17 in the regular season while the Packers won the NFC title game, 21-14 in their house.

 

[supafly]

so then...we want atlanta or GB in the SB?

that 8-0 stat is very impressive

I would feel just fine with a Seattle rematch too. We scored 23 points in their house in the pouring rain, and left at least 3 more on the board with the 10 sec runoff penalty at the end of the first half.

I think Belichick would be able to gameplan a nice rematch against them.

I'd also like to see Atlanta too, so I'll be rooting for the winner of the ATL/SEA game in the NFCCG, should it still matter for us at the time.

 

[supafly]

Going by the 'exact' scenario, it was.

The playoff game was that year was the second time the Jets played the Pats IN NEW ENGLAND.

We all understand that there is an element of home field advantage. After all, it's what we fight so hard for in the regular season. Generally speaking, most teams end up with as good or better home records than away records. THerefore, I thought it was worth pointing out that these were exact rematches in which the results flipped.

I would think that the odds would go down for beating the same opponent both times in the same year, just from a common sense perspective. We seem to be able to do it with ease many yrs with our divisional opponents, but that competition isn't exactly top notch. Even then sometimes those games can be a lot harder than anyone expected (see MIA game 1, NYJ game 1 and BUF game 2). I somehow feel that the team who is less talented may often gain more of an advantage, but that is unsubstantiated and just speculation on my part.

We all know that the winner of the NE/PIT matchups ends up losing the rematch in the playoffs every time, however it has been pointed out to me that the NE/IND matchups have been the complete opposite for the most part, so anything's possible.

I will agree that I don't care for giving the opposition a rematch under any circumstance, especially with the likes of good teams like HOU/DEN, but it is what it is and there isn't anything that can be done about it. I wouldn't mind facing BAL though if that's what it came down to in the AFCCG. I'd actually be pretty confident about winning that rematch--but that kind of goes along with the whole "giving the loser another chance" theory too.

 

[brdmaverick]

You also forgot that both conference championship games were like that too. The Jets beat the Steelers in the regular season 22-17 in Heinz Field but the Steelers won the rematch 24-19 in the AFC title game. The Bears beat the Packers in Soldier field 20-17 in the regular season while the Packers won the NFC title game, 21-14 in their house.

Good call. Thanks for the update.

 

[brdmaverick]

I would think that the odds would go down for beating the same opponent both times in the same year, just from a common sense perspective. .

I would think that common sense would suggest otherwise.

After all, if Team A beats Team B in game 1 most often that is because Team A is better than Team B. If Team A is better than Team B, common sense would seem to suggest Team A would be favored to win a rematch.

 

[Sporin]

So, given that the Patriots road to a championship would include at least 2 rematch games, with a 50/50 chance of a third, I started wondering how the Patriots have done under Belichick/Brady in rematch games in the playoffs.

The numbers surprised me a bit. Every elimination game -- that is all 6 times the Patriots have been eliminated under Belichick -- was a rematch game. Patriots' overall record in rematch games in the playoffs is 8-6. Five of those wins came in the three Super Bowl championship years, with the most famous of course being the Rams. Since the last Super Bowl win, the Patriots are 3-6 in rematch games in the playoffs. I didn't break it down by whether they won or lost the regular season game.

I think there's something to the notion that rematch games level the playing field a bit. I think maybe they neutralize one of our advantages, which is coaching. We give the other team film and help them prep.

In non-rematch playoff games in the Belichick era, the Patriots are 8-0.

I've been talking about rematch games all week with my friends, I hate them for precisely the reasons you laid out.

 

[oldrover]

I wonder why we stopped winning rematch games after 2004. That would be interesting to explore. Can't avoid them for this game, or the next if we make it there, so no point worrying about it... the team just has to play.

 

[Patjew]

I would think that common sense would suggest otherwise.

After all, if Team A beats Team B in game 1 most often that is because Team A is better than Team B. If Team A is better than Team B, common sense would seem to suggest Team A would be favored to win a rematch.

Exact;y. This isn't a 50-50 proposition like flipping a coin.