Rank highest to lowest possibility of an Upset in the 4 Divisional Games

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Rank the 4 games and to which game you think is most likely to have a chance at an upset and which is least.

Rank at '1' would be most likely to upset and '4' would be least

Current Odds for the games:

Atlanta -2 over Seattle
San Francisco -2 over Green Bay
New England -9 over Houston
Denver -9 over Baltimore



1 - Green Bay - Give me a team with many veteran and experienced Super Bowl players and arguably the best overall QB in the NFL from just a few years ago over a rookie QB to have best chance for an upset

2 - Houston - I am not sure what Patriots team we will see,the slow out the gate lackluster one from the Jags game or a more dominating team right from the start of the game like the Miami RS Finale

3 - Seattle - I think Ryan finally gets the monkey off his back and wins this one,Atlanta might be the most disrespected 13-3 team ever,Seattle losing their DE hurts.

4 - Baltimore - Don't see Flacco outscoring Manning...plain and simple,that being said,I think Denver is still untested for 2+ months now vs. any elite QB.

 

[dales804]

1. GB @ SF
2. SEA @ ATL
3. HOU @ NE
4. BAL @ DEN

I'm close to changing my pick of SEA over ATL because of that injury to Clemons. In that case HOU over NE jumps to #2.

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

1. Green Bay over San Francisco: for many of the reasons stated above

2. Seattle over Atlanta: I just think that the corners of Seattle could give Ryan fits and if the game gets hairy late, how will Ryan react?

3. Baltimore over Denver: Can Ray Lewis rip the life out of Mile High? He'll surely take a stab at it.

4. Houston over NE: My heart won't let me put this any higher

 

[BadMoFo]

I'd say GB, Seattle, Houston and Baltimore. Really shocked to see such a high spread in our game.

 

[JackBauer]

GB over SF: Much of this depends on Justin Smith's health. The further he is from being 100 percent, the more likely GB is to win. Aldon Smith is much less effective as a pass rusher without Justin hold...err...tying up blockers in front of him.

SEA over ATL: I am and remain skeptical of ATL, particularly Matt Ryan, in the playoffs until they can prove otherwise. The loss of Clemons is big, but I still think SEA matches up pretty well.

HOU over NE: HOU has been on a downward trajectory for some time now, and I don't see an upset here as being likely unless Talib and/or Dennard are hobbled.

BAL over DEN: I just don't think Flacco/BAL is that good of a team.

 

[VrabelJr]

1. SEA at ATL
2. HOU at NE
3. GB at SF
4. BAL at DEN

To be fair, I view GB at SF as almost dead on equal.

I view Atlanta as one of the most mediocre #1 seeds ever and Seattle is a matchup nightmare for them.

 

[RobertWeathers]

4. HOU @ Pats- Don't mean to be a homer but I just don't see the Pats losing this game. I guess if Foster goes off and that opens up the PA for Schaub, and HOUs front really pressure the hell out of Brady, it'll be tight. However Schaub is a bad Dec/outdoor QB and this game is in Foxboro vs a team that, with all the youth is battle tested and playing at a high-level with a complete compliment of players with 2 weeks off to rest and prepare.

3. SEA @ ATL- With Clemons going down and ATL showing a bit more maturity and resolve this year, I don't see them losing this game at home vs a rookie QB.

2. GB @ SF- I think Smith not 100% is huge. Alot depends on how well SF can run on what was a very mediocre GB run D, but because of Ponder being out, could play the run. Not sure they can do that vs Kapernick. This will be a great game.

1. BAL @ DEN-Not a whole lot of logic here as PM has had good success vs BAL in his career but I like this as an upset b/c I just don't think DEN is as good as everyone is making them out to be and BAL has been through hell this year, is in the playoffs and is a more seasoned. Webb out is a killer but the D has enough horses to get the job done and can opposite of GB vs MN, can load up in the secondary and play a sub-standard DEN running game with 5, sometimes 4 players. I know BAl was gashed by DEN's running game but Ray is back and i think that they'll approach things a bit differently this time around.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I'm not sure if I consider either NFC games upsets, considering the point spread on both of them are a field goal or less.

I think there's a good chance that every game next weekend is very competitive into the fourth quarter.

 

[Nikolai]

1. GB over SF
2. SEA over ATL
3. HOU over NE
4. BAL over DEN - Though I'd love nothing more than to have Lewis' career and Pollard's season end in Foxboro.

3. Baltimore over Denver: Can Ray Lewis rip the life out of Mile High? He'll surely take a stab at it.

I see what you did there.

 

[Rob0729]

1. GB over SF - Is that really an upset if GB wins?
2. Seattle over Atlanta - Still not in love with the Falcons in the playoffs.
3. Houston over NE - Still a long shot in my eyes, but still greater than Baltimore winning in Denver.
4. Baltimore over Denver - Unfortunately, the Ravens aren't at home facing a team that is one dimensional on offense and lacks a defense this weekend.

 

[Rob0729]

2 - Houston - I am not sure what Patriots team we will see,the slow out the gate lackluster one from the Jags game or a more dominating team right from the start of the game like the Miami RS Finale

You really need to stop spreading this falicy that the Pats are a Jeckyl and Hyde team (your words to describe them in another post). The Pats are not a Jeckyl and Hyde team like you are trying to intimate.

The Pats will not come out like they did against Jacksonville. Why? Because the Texans are not a 3 win team; the Pats are not going sit/not dress Dennard, Talib, Gronk, and Spikes and Cunningham and Bolden are no longer suspended; and the Texans are not going to play like they have nothing to lose because the game means nothing to them.

The Jacksonville game was one game and a very unique situation. It has no bearing on this game. It wasn't like the Pats have had slow starts like that game very often. In fact, unlike ast year, they have actually been more of a fast starting team for most of the year.

In fact, the Pats have had more of a problem this year building sizeable leads and letting teams get back into the game than they have had slow starts out of the gate. In two of their four losses (Baltimore and Seattle), they Pats had leads for most of the game only to blow it in the fourth. The only quality team the Pats started out slow out of the gates against was San Fran and that probably had to do with a short week after a big game and the weather.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

You really need to stop spreading this falicy that the Pats are a Jeckyl and Hyde team (your words to describe them in another post). The Pats are not a Jeckyl and Hyde team like you are trying to intimate.

The Pats will not come out like they did against Jacksonville. Why? Because the Texans are not a 3 win team; the Pats are not going sit/not dress Dennard, Talib, Gronk, and Spikes and Cunningham and Bolden are no longer suspended; and the Texans are not going to play like they have nothing to lose because the game means nothing to them.

The Jacksonville game was one game and a very unique situation. It has no bearing on this game. It wasn't like the Pats have had slow starts like that game very often. In fact, unlike ast year, they have actually been more of a fast starting team for most of the year.

In fact, the Pats have had more of a problem this year building sizeable leads and letting teams get back into the game than they have had slow starts out of the gate. In two of their four losses (Baltimore and Seattle), they Pats had leads for most of the game only to blow it in the fourth. The only quality team the Pats started out slow out of the gates against was San Fran and that probably had to do with a short week after a big game and the weather.

They sure are a Jekyll and Hyde team many times this year...what does it matter if they start out slow and end fast or they start out fast and end slow?...the bottom line is,they can't slack again in EITHER half and need to keep intensity up from start to finish like they are capable of.

You can't be up and down in a game the playoffs and survive to advance....they need to play 60 minutes like they did against the Jets,Texans and Dolphins if they want to go where they expect to go and we hope they go.

They started off poorly against Baltimore and the Jets in previous playoff years and it cost them,this team is more talented than either of the 2009 or 2010 teams so there shouldn't be a repeat of those divisional disappointments this year if they play hard from the kickoff.

There isn't a Patriot player or coach who would disagree with these sentiments

 

[Deus Irae]

Green Bay
Baltimore
Seattle
Houston

 

[Petersen23]

1. Baltimore- they have experience and I am still not sold on Peyton Manning in Denver given who they have played this year

2. Seattle- Hottest team in NFL, enough said

3. Green Bay- look good but San Fran looks better, could happen though

4. Houston- Pats fan through and through... Pats have to get up for this game: Houston could break my heart, but doubtful

 

[Rob0729]

They sure are a Jekyll and Hyde team many times this year...what does it matter if they start out slow and end fast or they start out fast and end slow?...the bottom line is,they can't slack again in EITHER half and need to keep intensity up from start to finish like they are capable of.

You can't be up and down in a game the playoffs and survive to advance....they need to play 60 minutes like they did against the Jets,Texans and Dolphins if they want to go where they expect to go and we hope they go.

There isn't a Patriot player or coach who would disagree with these sentiments

Every team has highs and lows like that. That isn't Jeckyl and Hyde. It is the fact there is no dominant teams in the NFL.

If your best argument is "look at the Jags game" for why the Pats could lose, then the Pats should book their hotel rooms in Denver. Seriously, if you are comparing the Pats' effort against a three win team in what everyone thought would be an easy win with a lot players out against a the Divisional Round of the playoffs as the same, I just don't know what to tell you.

The Pats are one of the most consistent teams in the NFL. Acting like we don't know what team will show up on Sunday is a little foolish.

 

[JackBauer]

They sure are a Jekyll and Hyde team many times this year...what does it matter if they start out slow and end fast or they start out fast and end slow?...the bottom line is,they can't slack again in EITHER half and need to keep intensity up from start to finish like they are capable of.

You can't be up and down in a game the playoffs and survive to advance....they need to play 60 minutes like they did against the Jets,Texans and Dolphins if they want to go where they expect to go and we hope they go.

They started off poorly against Baltimore and the Jets in previous playoff years and it cost them,this team is more talented than either of the 2009 or 2010 teams so there shouldn't be a repeat of those divisional disappointments this year if they play hard from the kickoff.

There isn't a Patriot player or coach who would disagree with these sentiments

This is very insightful. Not to mention the fact that this applies to, well, every single team in the playoffs?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

This is very insightful. Not to mention the fact that this applies to, well, every single team in the playoffs?

That I agree it does...and the team that plays 4 quarters with the most intensity and stronger desire will win...obviously.

Teams in the playoffs are closer matched talent wise because it takes a good team to make it in the tournament....thats why you usually can't get away with a bad quarter or two like you might in the regular season or it makes it tough to win.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Every team has highs and lows like that. That isn't Jeckyl and Hyde. It is the fact there is no dominant teams in the NFL.

If your best argument is "look at the Jags game" for why the Pats could lose, then the Pats should book their hotel rooms in Denver. Seriously, if you are comparing the Pats' effort against a three win team in what everyone thought would be an easy win with a lot players out against a the Divisional Round of the playoffs as the same, I just don't know what to tell you.

The Pats are one of the most consistent teams in the NFL. Acting like we don't know what team will show up on Sunday is a little foolish.

Must keep that consistency in the playoffs when it counts to win it all ... It was there in 2001,2003 and 2004. ...it needs to be on sunday and hopefully forward.

 

[Deus Irae]

Must keep that consistency in the playoffs when it counts to win it all ... It was there in 2001,2003 and 2004. ...it needs to be on sunday and hopefully forward.

In 2001 and 2003, the Patriots pulled first round wins out of their ass after not getting it done on offense, scoring 16 (in OT) and 17 points respectively.

 

[brdmaverick]

Liklihood of Upset

1.) Green Bay
2.) Seattle
3.) Houston
4.) Baltimore