RFA Victor Cruz

[Dragda]

Thoughts on offering Cruz a long term deal, we would lose are #1 to the Giants in exchange.

Cruz could offer a replacement for Welker and more of a deep threat. He is also just 26.

He went to UMASS

There is no replacement for Welker. He's one of a kind.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Cruz only had one more dropped pass than Welker this year, but yeah, not sure you can expect Victor to have the same Vulcan mind-meld as Tom and Wes.

On far fewer targets. And Cruz completion % of 60 won't cut it here for the short to intermediate range target. Welker is down a bit at 67%, he previously topped 70% on average. Which is also where the TE's have to be. And truth be told that's where they'd like Lloyd to be. To tolerate less you'd have to be what Moss was in 2007 or what guys like Fitz and CJ are, high impact scoring threats. It's another risk reward calculation.

 

[Deus Irae]

Nothing against Cruz, but I'm hoping the Patriots look for a true burner of an outside receiver while keeping Welker for a few more years. That would seem to give this team maximum flexibility in the passing game, as an embarrassment of riches would keep at least one "top" guy on the sidelines at all time when everyone is healthy.

Lloyd
Burner WR
Welker
Gronk
Hernandez
Woodhead

 

[Kid~Brady]

Welker scores TDs too

But he doesn't salsa.

And lets not kid ourselves, Welker isnt half the deep threat Cruz is. Welker is an awesome receiver and I want him resigned but I think thats the one advantage Cruz has over him thus far.

 

[Gumby]

Cruz only had one more dropped pass than Welker this year, but yeah, not sure you can expect Victor to have the same Vulcan mind-meld as Tom and Wes.

On how many targets and recs?

ESPN -

2012 Regular Season
REC TGTS YDS AVG LNG TD
Cruz 86 143 1,092 12.7 80 10
Welker 118 174 1,354 11.5 59 6
RECTGTSYDSAVGLNGTDFDATTYDSAVGLNGTDFUMLST2012 Regular Season861431,09212.78010

NBC

Dropped Passes: [rank 1= highest #]
Rank Player Team Stats
2t Victor Cruz NYG 10
6t (five way 6-11) Wes Welker NE 9

Cruz may only have 1 more drop; but that is
10 out of 96 passes = 10.4%
vs Welker 9 out of 127 = 7.1%

Then of course he had Eli throwing to him instead of TB; but still some of that Delta on the REC vs TGTS has to go to route running
Cruz = 60%
Welker = 68%

Take the 3% less drops and 8% more receptions per target and you get that Welker is about 10-11% MORE EFFECTIVE than Cruz even if Cruz has more TDs and more breakaway big-gainers.

If you wanted to make the case, THAT would be the argument to harp on... is that he takes the top off and would cause a moss-like synergistic effect that way.

Arguing that he has equivalent drops on much lower targets/recs does not match with the goals of a BB-(ball control/take what they give you/no big mistakes) offense; that 3-11% means EFFICIENCY and FIRST DOWNS.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

But he doesn't salsa.

And lets not kid ourselves, Welker isnt half the deep threat Cruz is. Welker is an awesome receiver and I want him resigned but I think thats the one advantage Cruz has over him thus far.

Cruz isn't a number 1 receiver. He gets a lot catches due to hakeem nicks in that offense. If you want to replace welker, i would think a number 1 receiver is better.

 

[Snake Eyes]

They passed on Welker in part because they had Troy Brown.

They passed on Cruz in part because they had Welker (and Edelman).

Do you think it wasmor to do with the Pats simply not realizing they'd nearly as good as they turned out to be?

 

[Sivy]

Welker is better, so just sign him.

 

[blackglass3]

I'm still holding out hope that PK Sam comes back from the CFL and sets the league on fire for us.

 

[Nehalem]

If the Pats are looking for a guy to replace Welker I would prefer looking at Harvin.

Slot Receiver, better deep ball skills than Welker, part-time running back, and elite kick returner.

 

[ATippett56]

Victor Cruz is positive he’ll work out a long-term deal with the Giants | ProFootballTalk

 

[Kid~Brady]

Cruz isn't a number 1 receiver. He gets a lot catches due to hakeem nicks in that offense. If you want to replace welker, i would think a number 1 receiver is better.

We have a number one receiver, Gronk.

Lol.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

The Patriots don't pay outsiders more than they pay their own. Every chance he gets, Mark Schlereth
(I know, BSPN mediot) brings up when the Broncos gave lots of money to the Chiefs safety instead of paying Steve Atwater. Say what you want about the players sucking it up and moving on, but chemistry and the locker room atmosphere can't be underestimated.

How pissed would Brady be if they dump his guy for a guy who is afraid to make the plays that aren't glamorous and take some stones?

 

[BrickPat]

In all seriousness to the OP...I say NO although the "he went to UMAss" was a compelling justification to surrender a #1 pick.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

he is staying with giants

 

[Bman12]

Yeah Cruz is going to cost alot of money.... I rather have Wes

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The Patriots likely do most of their scouting in the SEC and on teams where bill has connections.

It is funny/disappointing that more Umass kids have been drafted and picked up through Fa by the Giants and the Jets however when the Patriots are just a stones throw away.

Not on. . . . through.

It's not just those teams, but the connections that those coaches have, and the players they've seen, etc.

For example, I'm pretty sure Urban Meyer paid a few compliments to Jerod Mayo before he was drafted.

Similarly, the Pats learned about Julian Edelman because Dean Pees is good friends with Kent State's current HC.

 

[BradyFTW!]

1. The Giants will almost certainly lock Cruz up long term and prevent him from reaching the market.

2. I'm not wild about giving up a 1st for a WR, as I wasn't with Mike Wallace last year. Cruz will cost a fortune to sign long term.

Cruz is a good player. Wish we had found him. But that window has passed. At this point, I'm willing to bet that Markus Wheaton will be as good as Victor Cruz, will cost less than trading a 1st, and will be available for 4 years at a fraction of the price. Target him in the 2nd round.

Exactly. If the Pats are willing to pay that kind of money to a WR, then they should pay it to Welker and keep their first rounder. There's too much talent in the draft this year to throw away a first round pick like that. Even at #32 overall, the Pats could get an impact player at a position of need (S, OT, CB, WR).

 

[BradyFTW!]

If the Pats are looking for a guy to replace Welker I would prefer looking at Harvin.

Slot Receiver, better deep ball skills than Welker, part-time running back, and elite kick returner.

major durability concerns, whereas Welker has virtually none. Harvin's so talented that I'd consider a straight-up swap, but not if you have to pay Harvin more/surrender a pick.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

To me, he's only an option if the Pats can't get a deal done with Wes. That should be option ONE.