It's official - Defense is better than last year

[supafly]

Talib has gushed about finding a home and buying into the team concept. He's gotten nothing but praise from his teammates for his work ethic, practice habits and commitment. We'll find out in 6 weeks or so whether he was serious, or whether this was just a short term stop to rehab his image.

I keep thinking that a "Bodden-esque" deal for Talib would be fair, adding in the difference between 2009 and 2013 of course.

I believe that Bodden was making approx. 5.5 to 6 million a year when he signed his deal in 2009. I think those numbers (obviously adjusted to the 2013 format) would be pretty fair to both sides.

For me, that's approx. 7 million or so per year, and no higher than 7.5 average.

Anything else is going to be too high of a salary to keep other key parts in place, at least in my opinion.

There will be other options besides Talib if it comes down to it, and I wonder if we aren't overlooking some other key elements while trying to determine his actual worth and giving him the majority of the praise to the better play of the secondary?

You and I have been major advocates of moving McCourty to safety for awhile now, so that certainly comes into play, as does the better play of Arrington in the slot, parlayed with Dennard on the outside. As I said we will have the luxury of a deeper safety class this year, along with the potential to sign an additional CB via FA or the draft too. As much as everyone wants to immediately write Dowling off, there's certainly a chance that he could contribute as well.

I'd love to keep Talib, there's no doubt about it, but I don't think they're going to pay him what some other teams will be willing either. Hopefully it never gets that far.

 

[mayoclinic]

I keep thinking that a "Bodden-esque" deal for Talib would be fair, adding in the difference between 2009 and 2013 of course.

I believe that Bodden was making approx. 5.5 to 6 million a year when he signed his deal in 2009. I think those numbers (obviously adjusted to the 2013 format) would be pretty fair to both sides.

For me, that's approx. 7 million or so per year, and no higher than 7.5 average.

Anything else is going to be too high of a salary to keep other key parts in place, at least in my opinion.

There will be other options besides Talib if it comes down to it, and I wonder if we aren't overlooking some other key elements while trying to determine his actual worth and giving him the majority of the praise to the better play of the secondary?

You and I have been major advocates of moving McCourty to safety for awhile now, so that certainly comes into play, as does the better play of Arrington in the slot, parlayed with Dennard on the outside. As I said we will have the luxury of a deeper safety class this year, along with the potential to sign an additional CB via FA or the draft too. As much as everyone wants to immediately write Dowling off, there's certainly a chance that he could contribute as well.

I'd love to keep Talib, there's no doubt about it, but I don't think they're going to pay him what some other teams will be willing either. Hopefully it never gets that far.

I would suggest something like what the 49ers gave Carlos Rogers last year: 4 years, $29.3M. Maybe a bit less, with some incentives built in to reach that amount. We'll see if that's enough.

 

[TomPatriot]

It's official - the Pats are better than last year.

Points scored per game - 32.1 in 2011, 34.8 in 2012.
Points allowed per game - 21.4 in 2011, 20.7 in 2012.

 

[Ring 6]

It's official - the Pats are better than last year.

Points scored per game - 32.1 in 2011, 34.8 in 2012.
Points allowed per game - 21.4 in 2011, 20.7 in 2012.

W/L 13-3 2011, 12-4 2012

Post season SB Loss 2011, tbd 2012

 

[pdangle]

More importantly...

Opposing team passing statistics

1st Half games 1-8

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	193	293	65.9%	2353	17	9	16	8.0	97.0

2nd Half games 9-16

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	177	302	58.6%	2204	10	11	20	7.3	77.2

 

[Ring 6]

More importantly...

Opposing team passing statistics

1st Half games 1-8

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	193	293	65.9%	2353	17	9	16	8.0	97.0

2nd Half games 9-16

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	177	302	58.6%	2204	10	11	20	7.3	77.2

That is big. When you consider 4 passing TDs by SF that leaves 6 in 7 games in an area we have struggled the last couple of years.

 

[pdangle]

That is big. When you consider 4 passing TDs by SF that leaves 6 in 7 games in an area we have struggled the last couple of years.

I also hadn't realized the degree of improvement in the Pats opposing QB rating. 20 points is quite significant in a stat that is a pretty solid measure of a teams defensive ability.

 

[Ring 6]

I also hadn't realized the degree of improvement in the Pats opposing QB rating. 20 points is quite significant in a stat that is a pretty solid measure of a teams defensive ability.

QB rating is a sucky stat though. I bet 3rd down conversions, especially number of even more than % has improved a lot too, which is even more important

 

[RobertWeathers]

I also hadn't realized the degree of improvement in the Pats opposing QB rating. 20 points is quite significant in a stat that is a pretty solid measure of a teams defensive ability.

I don't have the numbers but I'd be willing to bet that the % of passes defensed per/att is up as well. Arrington, Dennard, McCourty, Talib, Gregory, etc all are getting their hands on the ball and making plays...

 

[supafly]

That is big. When you consider 4 passing TDs by SF that leaves 6 in 7 games in an area we have struggled the last couple of years.

That is indeed, huge.

 

[mayoclinic]

QB rating is a sucky stat though. I bet 3rd down conversions, especially number of even more than % has improved a lot too, which is even more important

Pats allowed 40% 3rd down conversion for the season, which ranked 22nd in the NFL. Breaking it down over the 2 halves:

- Games 1-8: 43% (43/101)
- Games 9-16: 37.5% (39/104)

That second half rate would rank about 13th if projected for the entire season. But it's even more emphatic if you break it down by the first 10 games vs. the last 6:

- Games 1-10: 45% (57/126)
- Games 11-16: 30% (24/79)

That 30% conversion rate is essentially equal to the league best rate allowed by Denver for the year.

 

[Kdo5]

I'm not worried about the defense, I'm more concerned with our offense going stagnant for an entire half.

 

[RobertWeathers]

QB rating is a sucky stat though. I bet 3rd down conversions, especially number of even more than % has improved a lot too, which is even more important

According to my quick math starting from the Indy game, they've allowed 32 3rd down conversions out of 93 total 3rd downs. Good for a 34% conversion rate and 5th in the NFL. Take out the Indy game (8-14 on 3rd down) and they are 30% - #1 in the NFL.

That is pretty telling...

 

[JMC00]

I'm not worried about the defense, I'm more concerned with our offense going stagnant for an entire half.

That divisonal game the offense will be the fullest it has been since Week 1.

 

[mgteich]

Neither Cole nor Martin is signed for 2013.

Chung, yes. I hope we re-sign Arrington, but if not I think Cole and/or Martin could step up.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree with all your comments.

I would note that to keep the defense intact, we need to re-sign Talib as our highest priority.

Overlooked is that we also need to re-sign or upgrade Arrington. He has been playing reasonably well at nickel. IMHO, this is not as easy a task as one would think. IMHO, counting on Dowling as our nickel is not a good idea.

Finally, we are presuming that the losses of Chung and Cole are inconsequential.

Neither Cole nor Martin is signed for 2013.

Obviously. But neither should be a difficult re-signing, nor terribly pricey, should the Pats opt to go that way.

 

[Joker]

I'm scared...we should drop everything and sign everybody...or...I don't know...it's bad though......

 

[Betterthanmost]

I have missed Gary Guyton very much.
NOT

 

[pdangle]

I'm not worried about the defense, I'm more concerned with our offense going stagnant for an entire half.

Wow how times have changed.

Even so, I wouldn't worry about a bad half or 3 over 8 or 16 games.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Oh it's been miles better especially since the Talib trade.

And we've actually played a much tougher schedule this year compared to 2011 so we have alot to be encouraged about. I actually feel like if Talib/Dennard are healthy, this team could win a defensive struggle in the event our offense sputters.