The #1 draft need is likely to be DL

[patsfaninpa]

We seemed to have managed pretty well without depth at this supposedly crucial position the last couple of years. Sorry, but DT is one of the least important positions on the team in my view. If you can't get an elite player like Wilfork, just leave it to the 7th round or UDFA.

We lost the 2010 playoff game partly because our DL got depleted as the season wore on. Does that playoff loss count?

 

[manxman2601]

We lost the 2010 playoff game partly because our DL got depleted as the season wore on. Does that playoff loss count?

Clearly BB agrees with you. Which is why he drafted two DL's in the subsequent draft..In the seventh round.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Clearly BB agrees with you. Which is why he drafted two DL's in the subsequent draft..In the seventh round.

Maybe, just maybe, less than stellar play from out defensive line is the reason we haven't won a Super Bowl since 2004. We've had four 500pt seasons in the last 6 years. The greatest offensive show in the history of the NFL. Yet, no rings. Yeah, who needs DL.

 

[mayoclinic]

Maybe, just maybe, less than stellar play from out defensive line is the reason we haven't won a Super Bowl since 2004. We've had four 500pt seasons in the last 6 years. The greatest offensive show in the history of the NFL. Yet, no rings. Yeah, who needs DL.

After drafting DL in the 1st round in 2001, 2003 and 2004 we didn't go back to the position again until 2012. Time to reload. At least twice.

 

[mayoclinic]

Jesse. Potentially elite as a run stopper.

You don't need to tell me. I've been onto Jesse Williams longer than anyone.

From Russ Lande at the NFP:

Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama, Senior (6035, 335 and 5.15 E): Despite not playing football until he was 15 years old, Williams made an immediate impact at Alabama in 2011 and was one of the key components to their defense in 2012. A thick and powerful defensive tackle with rare natural strength, his ability to dominate run blockers at the point of attack is not only impressive, but difficult to find. Quick off the ball while still maintaining leverage, Williams consistently is able to jolt offensive linemen upright and backwards to blow up inside running plays. Not only able to hold ground vs. one blocker, he has shined anchoring against the double team to shut down the opponent’s inside rushing attack. For a massive man, Williams initial quickness and explosiveness to drive through gaps to get backfield penetration is impressive. A powerful bull rusher, Williams' needs to develop more pass rush moves if he is going to be able to consistently pressure the quarterback in the NFL. Although Williams is not getting much publicity now, I believe he will be a first round draft pick because of his ability to physically dominate blockers, make big plays against the run and scheme versatility. He has the physical talent to develop into a starter at defensive end or nose tackle in a 34 defense or as a defensive tackle in a 43 scheme.

What NFP is hearing - Draft Rumblings | National Football Post

 

[DaBruinz]

WILFORK will be extended. We've added JONES. We have FRANCIS to replace Brace going forward.

IN THEIR CONTRACT YEAR IN 2013
Ninkovich
Cunningham
Deaderick
Love

MAYBE Bequette or Forston will develop to be a major contributor. I think that we need to add a player or two as we look forward to 2014 (as a draft should).

Don't get wrong. I'm fine with extending all four. However, I think that the draft can be used to find potential upgrades.

As of now, I would be fine with two front seven players and a safety for our draft. Corners, wide receivers and OT will need to be addressed by re-signs or in free agency (or a trade). I suspect that at least one of our picks will be traded down, since we are OK with a year of development for these players.

Umm.. Francis and Brace play different positions entirely. Francis is a Rush End and Brace, is well, a DT when he actually can get on the field, which isn't often.

You also seem to be forgetting Pryor, who is under contract for another year due to his spending the entire year on the PUP. Pryor is the one who Francis will probably be replacing in the long run.

Forston is a NT/DT type player. It will be interesting to see if he can push Brace, Love and Deaderick for playing time.

Wilfork has 2 more years on his contract. He'll probably be extended after the 2013 season when teams know how much more the new TV contracts are actually providing.

OC and RG need to be addressed as does OT. Wendell is below average and Vollmer is about to be a UFA.

There are a lot of moving parts and we're just going to have to wait and see how things pan out.

 

[manxman2601]

After drafting DL in the 1st round in 2001, 2003 and 2004 we didn't go back to the position again until 2012. Time to reload. At least twice.

Tell BB that. He's the one that thinks the position can be filled with late round and UDFA types. His thinking might change this year, but it suggests he see's the position in the same way I do. I.e. Not all that valuable.

 

[mayoclinic]

Tell BB that. He's the one that thinks the position can be filled with late round and UDFA types. His thinking might change this year, but it suggests he see's the position in the same way I do. I.e. Not all that valuable.

The fact that he spent 1st round picks on the DL in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2012, and 2nd round picks in 2004 and 2009 suggests that BB's assessment might be slightly different than yours. I don't think you can make any inference about BB's valuation of the DL position at all.

Through 2008 we had 3 1st round starting DLs and one of the best front lines in the NFL. Seymour was traded because of an impending cap crunch and other factors, and then injuries caught up with Warren, along with a schematic shift. I don't think that it's been a lack of value in the DL position that's necessarily affected BB. In 2011 I think he clearly made an assessment of the available linemen, and found them wanting, but that doesn't mean that he didn't value the position. In 2012 we invest 2 1st round picks - with 2 trade ups - on line players.

We'll see what happens in the next few years. Based on the past 7 years, you could say that BB doesn't value QBs WRs, or RBs much either. I guess we'll just keep using 1st and 2nd round picks on DBs ad infinitum - maybe with an occasional LB or TE thrown in - as the only positions BB apparently values.

 

[manxman2601]

The fact that he spent 1st round picks on the DL in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2012, and 2nd round picks in 2004 and 2009 suggests that BB's assessment might be slightly different than yours. I don't think you can make any inference about BB's valuation of the DL position at all.

Through 2008 we had 3 1st round starting DLs and one of the best front lines in the NFL. Seymour was traded because of an impending cap crunch and other factors, and then injuries caught up with Warren, along with a schematic shift. I don't think that it's been a lack of value in the DL position that's necessarily affected BB. In 2011 I think he clearly made an assessment of the available linemen, and found them wanting, but that doesn't mean that he didn't value the position. In 2012 we invest 2 1st round picks - with 2 trade ups - on line players.

We'll see what happens in the next few years. Based on the past 7 years, you could say that BB doesn't value QBs WRs, or RBs much either. I guess we'll just keep using 1st and 2nd round picks on DBs ad infinitum - maybe with an occasional LB or TE thrown in - as the only positions BB apparently values.

2012 doesn't count because that's a 4-3 DE and we're talking DT's. As for the earlier three first round picks, I specifically said it was worth doing for an elite player and Seymour and Wilfork obviously qualify.

We'll see what happens in the next few years. Based on the past 7 years, you could say that BB doesn't value QBs WRs, or RBs much either.

Seriously!


He may well draft a DT. I hope not because like you with WR's, I think it's a waste of a pick, particularly this year as I don't rate what is likely available.

One other thing to bear in mind. Is there any value in a first round DT? Finding one who can play all three downs effectively isn't going to be easy. Who plays on a passing down, Sylvester Williams or Jermaine Cunningham? Who plays on a running down, Sheldon Richardson or Kyle Love?

If Louis Nix is there when we pick next year, sign me up immediately. If Cooper and Ansah are gone, then I'd consider Jesse Williams along with a couple of others (Tavon Austin, Terrance Williams, Robert Woods). But I don't see the value in wasting a pick on Sylvester Williams or Kawaan Short who I just don't see as anything more than situational players in the Patriots system.

 

[mayoclinic]

2012 doesn't count because that's a 4-3 DE and we're talking DT's. As for the earlier three first round picks, I specifically said it was worth doing for an elite player and Seymour and Wilfork obviously qualify.

The thread was about DL. I didn't understand that to be restricted to DT. Maybe we're just talking about different things. At any rate, I hadn't understood your use of the term "DL" to imply DT only.

Seriously!

He may well draft a DT. I hope not because like you with WR's, I think it's a waste of a pick, particularly this year as I don't rate what is likely available.

One other thing to bear in mind. Is there any value in a first round DT? Finding one who can play all three downs effectively isn't going to be easy. Who plays on a passing down, Sylvester Williams or Jermaine Cunningham? Who plays on a running down, Sheldon Richardson or Kyle Love?

If Louis Nix is there when we pick next year, sign me up immediately. If Cooper and Ansah are gone, then I'd consider Jesse Williams along with a couple of others (Tavon Austin, Terrance Williams, Robert Woods). But I don't see the value in wasting a pick on Sylvester Williams or Kawaan Short who I just don't see as anything more than situational players in the Patriots system.

I hope we do consider drafting a DT, as I think we need depth there. As with all positions, I look for relative value:

- Louis Nix isn't coming out, but we're agreed he's the biggest impact player and well worth a 1st
- Sheldon Richardson is a potential impact player but has too man schematic issues and question marks - I think we also agree on this
- Johnathan Hankins is someone I consider an impact player worth a 1st if he falls
- Jesse Williams is a steal in the 2nd, and worth a trade back if other options are gone
- Sylvester Williams is solid late 2nd/3rd value, depending on who else is on the board
- Brandon Williams warrants further evaluation, and is probably my top day 3 option, but I need to see more

That's pretty much my DT list for 2013. It's not a given that any of those options works out, but depending on how things fall I think it's a position of some importance. I've consistently said that (barring a Nix or Hankins falling in our laps) I want a LDE more this year.

 

[manxman2601]

The thread was about DL. I didn't understand that to be restricted to DT. Maybe we're just talking about different things. At any rate, I hadn't understood your use of the term "DL" to imply DT only.



I hope we do consider drafting a DT, as I think we need depth there. As with all positions, I look for relative value:

- Louis Nix isn't coming out, but we're agreed he's the biggest impact player and well worth a 1st
- Sheldon Richardson is a potential impact player but has too man schematic issues and question marks - I think we also agree on this
- Johnathan Hankins is someone I consider an impact player worth a 1st if he falls
- Jesse Williams is a steal in the 2nd, and worth a trade back if other options are gone
- Sylvester Williams is solid late 2nd/3rd value, depending on who else is on the board
- Brandon Williams warrants further evaluation, and is probably my top day 3 option, but I need to see more

That's pretty much my DT list for 2013. It's not a given that any of those options works out, but depending on how things fall I think it's a position of some importance. I've consistently said that (barring a Nix or Hankins falling in our laps) I want a LDE more this year.

Actually that's my bad, for some reason I was fixated on DT. Still don't value that position all that highly, but DE would make a difference. I'm still focused on getting the best player we can though.

ohnathan Hankins is someone I consider an impact player worth a 1st if he falls

Just want to raise this as a debating point. If he's available when we pick, that represents a significant fall. Now, it puts me in mind of something I read recently which basically said, don't draft a player that's falling, draft one that's rising because they'll turn out to be the better player. Two things I'd say:

1. I haven't tested this so can't speak to how true an axiom this is.

2. I think a distinction should be made based on someone falling because of character or other red flag (Gronk/AHern spring to mind immediately) and someone falling because of a re-evaluation of his talent.

I haven't formed an opinion on this point of view yet, your post just reminded me of it.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Vince Wilfork fell to 24th for us. Nobody mocked him to us because it was assumed he'd be long gone by the time we picked.

 

[mayoclinic]

Vince Wilfork fell to 24th for us. Nobody mocked him to us because it was assumed he'd be long gone by the time we picked.

21st, but the point is the same.

 

[mayoclinic]

Actually that's my bad, for some reason I was fixated on DT. Still don't value that position all that highly, but DE would make a difference. I'm still focused on getting the best player we can though.

Restricting things to the DT position, I don't think we disagree that much. I probably place a higher value on the position than you do - I'm a firm believing in building from the "inside out", and on inside pressure as the shortest path to disrupting the QB and collapsing the pocket - but I certainly don't want us to reach to fill any need. I listed DT around 4th or 5th in priority in my "blueprint" thread, and I included 3 parts to it - depth at DT, a penetrating DT, and an eventual successor to Wilfork. I doubt Vince is going away anytime soon so the last is not an immediate need, but it is something to think about developing if the opportunity arises. I'd like to get a DT out of this draft, but only if things fall right. I don't see the need to reach for one, or grab someone that I'm not that keen on, if the chips don't fall right.

Just want to raise this as a debating point. If [Hankin]'s available when we pick, that represents a significant fall. Now, it puts me in mind of something I read recently which basically said, don't draft a player that's falling, draft one that's rising because they'll turn out to be the better player. Two things I'd say:

1. I haven't tested this so can't speak to how true an axiom this is.

2. I think a distinction should be made based on someone falling because of character or other red flag (Gronk/AHern spring to mind immediately) and someone falling because of a re-evaluation of his talent.

I haven't formed an opinion on this point of view yet, your post just reminded me of it.

I have no idea where Hankins will go in the draft. He was considered a top 15 prospect going into this season with the possibility of going higher. Now there is a lot of questioning of his motor, stamina and burst. The draft has become so scrutinized these days, it is much harder for players to slip through the cracks, but much easier for players to fall through over-analysis ( Brandon Spikes, for example). Blue chip players suddenly become flawed, while other guys become over-hyped fast risers. It's hard to sort our the hype from the reality. There are certainly fast risers that you don't want to miss, but there are also guys who fall for no obvious reason. Wilfork himself slipped to 21 for no apparent reason. Market dynamics will dictate a lot.

Looking at the draft order right now, I could see the following teams being interested in a guy like Hankins:

11. NY Jets
13. Carolina
14. Pittsburgh
18. Dallas
24. Indianapolis
27. San Francisco

Odds are unlikely that he'd make it through that lineup, but stranger things have happened.

 

[kennyb]

I think DL is the last are the team needs. OL/WR/CB is where I think they need the most help. They seem to be able to pick up decent DL anywhere especially now that they're 4-3 more often. Myron Pryor is also coming back. Cunningham will be back I think also.

 

[DaBruinz]

I think DL is the last are the team needs. OL/WR/CB is where I think they need the most help. They seem to be able to pick up decent DL anywhere especially now that they're 4-3 more often. Myron Pryor is also coming back. Cunningham will be back I think also.

Myron Pryor can't stay healthy. Neither can Ron Brace.

Cunningham was doing well until the suspension, but he was working more as a pass-rushing DT than he was at DE.

OL is a definite need, but BB and Co have seemed to be able to pick up in free agency and from UDFA and be successful.

Keeping Talib will go a long way to solidifying CB.

WR will depend on what they do with Welker and Edelman. I think they need someone to replace Branch. Hopefully the message got sent to Ebert by his being cut and out of work for a few months before being brought back. I wouldn't be surprised to see some Free Agents brought in again, but the success there is few and far between.

Bringing in someone like Jesse Williams in the Draft would be great. I see him as similar to Wilfork. He could develop behind and next to Wilfork to be the teams NT of the future.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

I think DL is the last are the team needs. OL/WR/CB is where I think they need the most help. They seem to be able to pick up decent DL anywhere especially now that they're 4-3 more often. Myron Pryor is also coming back. Cunningham will be back I think also.

Funny you say that - I'd say that an impact player on the DL is the only major need.

Cornerback is a luxury right now, not a need. Obviously, if your defensive struggles to generate anything resembling pressure for long stretches of the game (which is the case right now) guys on the back end have a much harder job. Do you think Tarell Brown is all that better than Alfonzo Dennard? Games are won and lost in the trenches. Get an impact player opposite Jones at DE and all of a sudden the secondary won't look so bad.

As for offense - the marginal benefit of making the NFL's #1 offense better is much smaller than the marginal benefit of making one of the NFL's worse defenses one of the best (which with the right pieces I truly believe it can be).

 

[mayoclinic]

Funny you say that - I'd say that an impact player on the DL is the only major need.

Cornerback is a luxury right now, not a need. Obviously, if your defensive struggles to generate anything resembling pressure for long stretches of the game (which is the case right now) guys on the back end have a much harder job. Do you think Tarell Brown is all that better than Alfonzo Dennard? Games are won and lost in the trenches. Get an impact player opposite Jones at DE and all of a sudden the secondary won't look so bad.

As for offense - the marginal benefit of making the NFL's #1 offense better is much smaller than the marginal benefit of making one of the NFL's worse defenses one of the best (which with the right pieces I truly believe it can be).

Yup.

A guy like Jesse Williams or Johnathan Hankins also has the flexibility to go outside in a 3-4 (both have played the position in college with some success), and could possibly play a Red Bryant kind of 4-3 LDE role at times that BB wants a big run stuffer outside more than a pass rusher.

I really like Trent Murphy from Stanford. Don't know if he'll come out this year, but if he did, he would be a nice pick in the 2nd round. 6'6" 265#, currently plays OLB but plays on the line some and has the frame to put on 20-30#. He has a little bit of JJ Watt in him - not that anyone's going to be Watt. Hankins (longshot) or Williams (possibly with a slight trade back) plus Murphy and then someone like Kent St. OL Brian Winters would be a day 1-2 haul as far as I'm concerned.

 

[manxman2601]

I think DL is the last are the team needs. OL/WR/CB is where I think they need the most help. They seem to be able to pick up decent DL anywhere especially now that they're 4-3 more often. Myron Pryor is also coming back. Cunningham will be back I think also.

Yup.

1. We are a team that depends on a high performing offense and as the last two weeks have shown, when our offense under performs, we become a very ordinary them. Keeping the offense fresh is absolutely vital.

2. Our defense is a long way from being anything better than average. Adding average defensive players won't change that.

3.we should add the best players we can, defensive or on offense, but we should absolutely ensure that our offense is kept as strong as possible.

 

[mgteich]

Apparently you think that the 2013 draft is all about 2013. Drafts are to build teams for the future.
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We have only Wilfork, Jones, Bequette and Francis signed beyond 2013. 2012 was a good first step; but we need more. And for Belichick, the best place to find defensive linemen is in the draft.
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Obviously WR and CB are our highest offseason needs, given that Welker, Edelman, Branch, Talib, Arrington and Cole are all free agents. This situation does NOT translate into a draft need. We are more likely to fill these needs through re-signing and free agency.
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IMHO, complaining about the OL is a matter of ignorance. Of course, Bill and Dante will look for developmental offensive lineman as they do every year. However, no immediate help is required, except for veteran RT, which will likely be Vollmer or a free agent.

I think DL is the last are the team needs. OL/WR/CB is where I think they need the most help. They seem to be able to pick up decent DL anywhere especially now that they're 4-3 more often. Myron Pryor is also coming back. Cunningham will be back I think also.