2013 QB Draft

[Ochmed Jones]

Looks like the 2013 draft is going to have quite a few QB hungry teams and in this draft, I only see two legitimate 1st round graded QB's, Smith and Barkley.

So there are going to be teams that are prepared to overdraft the second tier QB's, Wilson and Bray.

What all this means is that BB is going to have teams calling him when we are on the clock at #32 that did not get a QB earlier in round 1 that are going to overdraft a Wilson or Bray.

So what is another team going to have to offer for BB to trade back in this draft?

And are there any players in this draft projected with a late first round grades that if they are on the board at #32, we absolutely should not trade back and draft them instead?

 

[patsfaninpa]

Looks like the 2013 draft is going to have quite a few QB hungry teams and in this draft, I only see two legitimate 1st round graded QB's, Smith and Barkley.

So there are going to be teams that are prepared to overdraft the second tier QB's, Wilson and Bray.

What all this means is that BB is going to have teams calling him when we are on the clock at #32 that did not get a QB earlier in round 1 that are going to overdraft a Wilson or Bray.

So what is another team going to have to offer for BB to trade back in this draft?

And are there any players in this draft projected with a late first round grades that if they are on the board at #32, we absolutely should not trade back and draft them instead?

I'm working on a mockfor another board. All of our binkies will be gone. I have us picking at 28 not 32. Sorry, but our defense won't stop Manning out there. I have Arizona trading up for Tyler Wilson. Might be worried Jax or Oakland or Philly could nab him at the top of round 2. Thoughts??

KC - Geno Smith - QB
Jax - Jarvis Jones - LB
Oak - Stat Lotulelei - DT
Philly - Luke Joeckel- T
Det. - M. Te'o - MLB
Buff - Matt Barkley - qb
Cleve - Demontre Moore - DE
Tenn - Bjorn Werner - DE
Ariz - Taylor Lewan - T
SD - Dee Milliner - CB
NYJ - Kiki Mingo - LB
TB - Jake Matthews - T
Carolina - J. Hankins - DT
Pitt - Dion Jordan - olb/de - No CB worth taking here. J. Harrison is toast
Miami - Keenan Allen - WR
NO - S. Richardson - DT
St.L - C. Warmack - G
Dallas - E. Reid - S
NYG - E. Ansah - DE - Sorry Mayo. Jerry Reese sees another JPP
Minny - J. Jenkins - DT
Chicago - E. Fisher - T
Cincy - Sam Montgomer - DE
Seattle - J. Cooper - G
Indy - Jesse Williams - NG Gave up 350 rushing yards to KC. Yikes!
Wash to St.L - Tyler Eiffert - TE - Sam Bradford happy
Balt. - A. Ogletree - LB
SF - J. Banks - CB
New England to Arizona - Tyler Wilson - QB

We could take someone like; A. Okafor, K. Short, S. Williams, Amerson, Vaccarro, Tavon Austin or a different wr. I'd like to get their 2nd and 3rd. Arizona 2nd is 40 right now. And, 69 in 3RD. We give up 660 points and get 755. With a qb involved, too small a difference for Arizona to quibble.

 

[everlong]

I like your mock, a lot, and the trade value but given this draft isn't as deep as last year's I think I'd rather they either trade up or into next year. If they could get up into the low 20's to get Montgomery, Jenkins or Ansah I would prefer that. Maybe two years in a row of trade ups is too much too ask but the other option is a trade like the SF deal for Mayo where you get AZ's 4th and a 1st in 2014 which should project to a really high pick.

 

[manxman2601]

There's a strong second tier Of QB's in his class so I don't see desperation driving teams to trade up. Miss on Wilson? Just wait and draft Nassib. Miss on Glennon? Wait and draft Bray. And if teams are waiting to use their second pick on one of the QB's, it's not like they're completely sold on them anyway.

 

[patsfaninpa]

There's a strong second tier Of QB's in his class so I don't see desperation driving teams to trade up. Miss on Wilson? Just wait and draft Nassib. Miss on Glennon? Wait and draft Bray. And if teams are waiting to use their second pick on one of the QB's, it's not like they're completely sold on them anyway.

Most teams don't look at quarterbacks and just take the next one available. They evaluate them and look for someone who fits their system. May not like your guys such as; Nassib or Glennon. Hence the trade up. If teams did it your way, there would never be a trade up. You could just take the next guy at the position. Geez. Kind of a silly comment.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Thank you for starting this thread.

I think it's well worth asking as separate questions: Which teams will be looking to draft a quarterback? Which quarterbacks deserve drafting? Which quarterbacks will be taken and when (and how will that affect other players' slotting)?

 

[BritPat]

Nassib is the only QB that excites me in this Draft.

 

[manxman2601]

Most teams don't look at quarterbacks and just take the next one available. They evaluate them and look for someone who fits their system. May not like your guys such as; Nassib or Glennon. Hence the trade up. If teams did it your way, there would never be a trade up. You could just take the next guy at the position. Geez. Kind of a silly comment.

Yes your comment is kinda silly. If these teams rate these QB's so highly and such ideal fits, why are they waiting until the second round to draft them?

 

[patsfaninpa]

Yes your comment is kinda silly. If these teams rate these QB's so highly and such ideal fits, why are they waiting until the second round to draft them?

They aren't waiting until the 2nd round. They are trading into the first.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Thank you for starting this thread.

I think it's well worth asking as separate questions: Which teams will be looking to draft a quarterback? Which quarterbacks deserve drafting? Which quarterbacks will be taken and when (and how will that affect other players' slotting)?

Will any of them realize that there's a QB available, arguably as good as anyone in this draft, who happens to have two years of NFL training?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Most teams don't look at quarterbacks and just take the next one available. They evaluate them and look for someone who fits their system. May not like your guys such as; Nassib or Glennon. Hence the trade up. If teams did it your way, there would never be a trade up. You could just take the next guy at the position. Geez. Kind of a silly comment.

As a case in point, back in 2000 the Patriots were looking at either TFB or Tim Rattay. They weren't looking at Spergon Wynn et al.

 

[manxman2601]

They aren't waiting until the 2nd round. They are trading into the first.

We're still talking about their second picks so effectively the same thing.

I did a quick scan of the last 10 drafts to see how common an occurrence it is and as far as I can see, it's happened four times. The QB's selected: Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow. If I was an independent consultant, based on that track record of trading back in to the first, I'd strongly urge teams not to waste the picks they'd give up in any trade and wait for the next best QB. Wouldn't you?

 

[patsfaninpa]

We're still talking about their second picks so effectively the same thing.

I did a quick scan of the last 10 drafts to see how common an occurrence it is and as far as I can see, it's happened four times. The QB's selected: Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow. If I was an independent consultant, based on that track record of trading back in to the first, I'd strongly urge teams not to waste the picks they'd give up in any trade and wait for the next best QB. Wouldn't you?

Nope. Had Washington traded up two spots further. They could have had Aaron Rodgers instead of Jason Campbell. Quinn didn't work out. Look who was drafted behind him; Kolb Beck and Drew Stanton. How'd that work out? Tebow's not a qb, so he doesn't count.

 

[manxman2601]

Nope. Had Washington traded up two spots further. They could have had Aaron Rodgers instead of Jason Campbell. Quinn didn't work out. Look who was drafted behind him; Kolb Beck and Drew Stanton. How'd that work out? Tebow's not a qb, so he doesn't count.

Huh. Could have sworn I've seen him throw the ball in a forward manner on a number of occasions. Must have been someone else.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Will any of them realize that there's a QB available, arguably as good as anyone in this draft, who happens to have two years of NFL training?

If you're talking about whom I think you're talking about and he really is that good, the last thing I want is to see him traded.

(We're dealing with a perfect example of information asymmetry, by the way. The Pats have much better evidence than anyone else whether he's any good. Given that they're going to need a new quarterback fairly soon, the fact that they would be willing to let RM go -- if they were -- should be enough of a sign to a rational team that they shouldn't bid for him.)

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If you're talking about whom I think you're talking about and he really is that good, the last thing I want is to see him traded.

(We're dealing with a perfect example of information asymmetry, by the way. The Pats have much better evidence than anyone else whether he's any good. Given that they're going to need a new quarterback fairly soon, the fact that they would be willing to let RM go -- if they were -- should be enough of a sign to a rational team that they shouldn't bid for him.)

But that's the thing, though: if you think that TFB is going to be playing at a high caliber in 2015 and 2016, you can't expect Mallett to sit for a total of 5-6 years.

 

[Mike the Brit]

But that's the thing, though: if you think that TFB is going to be playing at a high caliber in 2015 and 2016, you can't expect Mallett to sit for a total of 5-6 years.

I hate to say it and jinx things, but a good backup will probably see the field some time in the next couple of years. And if he really is that good but doesn't see the field he will be under-priced -- how could any other GM tell? (Matt Cassel hasn't exactly boosted the market for ex-Patriots quarterbacks either.) I'd rather have a first-rate back-up than a third-round pick (at best).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I hate to say it and jinx things, but a good backup will probably see the field some time in the next couple of years. And if he really is that good but doesn't see the field he will be under-priced -- how could any other GM tell? (Matt Cassel hasn't exactly boosted the market for ex-Patriots quarterbacks either.) I'd rather have a first-rate back-up than a third-round pick (at best).

Here's my view: if the Patriots can get what they consider sufficient value, I'd be OK with trading him.

Obviously, though, I'm not in favor of getting rid of Mallett for, say, a 6 or a 7.

 

[wiltondeportes]

There are basically three guys that have shown the total package to me.

Zac Dysert could be the most talented of the bunch. He played for a smaller school with weak talent, so he's used to having the team on his back. His throwing talent and mobility is great.

Matt Barkley is the big name. He's smart, accurate, with a great arm. Not very athletic though. He should be drafted first and be successful right away if his situation is good.

Ryan Nassib is also smart, also accurate, and with almost as great an arm. He's more mobile than Barkley and lesser heralded. His coach comes from Sean Payton's staff and runs an NFL offense, so Nassib should be ready early.

 

[stealthdog]

But that's the thing, though: if you think that TFB is going to be playing at a high caliber in 2015 and 2016, you can't expect Mallett to sit for a total of 5-6 years.

ESPN had a piece yesterday about speculation of where QBs are going to go. They suggested this might be the year the Pats trade Mallett (because the QB draft this year is fairly weak and alot of teams need a QB) and were implying they could get alot in return for him. And then they followed that with thinking maybe Cassel could end up back in New England to backup Brady again.

I don't know about the Cassel part, but given Brady's play this season and expectation that he is going to still be a stud 3-4 years down the road, I expect Mallett gone. Barkley and Smith looked good going into the season and early on, both kind of crapped out. It wouldn't surprise me if some of those QB needy teems would prefer a guy like Mallett over those two. I think the Patriots could easily cash in Mallett for a 1st round pick this year.