Playoff scenarios

[ivanvamp]

Current standings, AFC:

1. Hou 12-3 (owns H2H win over Den)
2. Den 12-3
3. NE 11-4 (owns H2H win over Den and Hou)
4. Bal 10-5 (owns H2H win over NE)
5. Ind 10-5
6. Cin 9-6

Right now, the matchups would be:

Cin at NE
Ind at Bal

But there are four teams that play games that matter to these standings next weekend:

Hou at Ind
KC at Den
Mia at NE
Bal at Cin

There are, therefore, 16 different combinations of those four key teams winning/losing (Hou, Den, NE, Bal).

Combo 1 - Hou, Den, NE, Bal
Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

Combo 2 - Hou, Den, NE, Cin
Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

Combo 3 - Hou, Den, Mia, Bal
Seedings - Hou, Den, Bal, NE

Combo 4 - Hou, Den, Mia, Cin
Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

Combo 5 - Hou, KC, NE, Bal
Seedings - Hou, NE, Den, Bal

Combo 6 - Hou, KC, NE, Cin
Seedings - Hou, NE, Den, Bal

Combo 7 - Hou, KC, Mia, Bal
Seedings - Hou, Den, Bal, NE

Combo 8 - Hou, KC, Mia, Cin
Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

Combo 9 - Ind, Den, NE, Bal
Seedings - Den, NE, Hou, Bal

Combo 10 - Ind, Den, NE, Cin
Seedings - Den, NE, Hou, Bal

Combo 11 - Ind, Den, Mia, Bal
Seedings - Den, Hou, Bal, NE

Combo 12 - Ind, Den, Mia, Cin
Seedings - Den, Hou, NE, Bal

Combo 13 - Ind, KC, NE, Bal
Seedings - NE, Hou, Den, Bal

Combo 14 - Ind, KC, NE, Cin
Seedings - NE, Hou, Den, Bal

Combo 15 - Ind, KC, Mia, Bal
Seedings - Hou, Den, Bal, NE

Combo 16 - Ind, KC, Mia, Cin
Seedings - Hou, Den, NE, Bal

So of these 16 scenarios, here's where NE places among the top four seeds:

#1 seed: 2 (12.5%)
#2 seed: 4 (25.0%)
#3 seed: 6 (37.5%)
#4 seed: 4 (25.0%)

So there's a 75% chance (if this was a "fair coin" kind of thing, which we know football is not) that the Pats will be one of the top 3 seeds. A 37.5% chance that they actually secure a bye. The Houston game is the biggest one of the day, IMO, because let's say they lose to Indy. Let's also assume the Pats win and stay ahead of Baltimore (who very well could lose on the road to Cin). Then the Pats will at a minimum be the #2 seed. If they get the #2 seed with Den moving to the #1, then here's what the playoffs look like:

#1 - Den
#2 - NE
#3 - Hou
#4 - Bal
#5 - Ind
#6 - Cin

I would think that, in the divisional round, NE would likely draw Hou at home. I think that would be a terrific matchup for the Pats. Meanwhile, Den would get (most likely) either Bal or Ind. Den would probably beat either of those teams, but in a one-game scenario, the Pats playing at Denver in the AFCCG, while not ideal, is probably better than having to beat Den on the road in the divisional round and then going on the road again to beat Hou for the AFCCG.

 

[everlong]

From a purely mathematical perspective your numbers are correct but Cincinnati and Indy have zero to gain so I'd weight their winning scenarios a lot less. Also KC sucks and has nothing to play for so ditto. I think it's more like 75% the seeds don't change from what they are now.

 

[ivanvamp]

From a purely mathematical perspective your numbers are correct but Cincinnati and Indy have zero to gain so I'd weight their winning scenarios a lot less. Also KC sucks and has nothing to play for so ditto. I think it's more like 75% the seeds don't change from what they are now.

You may be right. Here's why I think we have some reason to at least hope:

- Bal at Cin. Cincy is playing very well and Baltimore is still banged up. They need to be encouraged by that dismantling of the Giants, but I think Cincy could win this game. If they do, then the Pats can't fall further down than #3.

- Hou at Ind. Yes, Ind doesn't have anything to play for in terms of seeding, but they do have a lot to play for. Their HC is coming back, so they'll be emotionally fired-up. Hou has never beaten Indy in Indy. There's more motivation. Plus, it's possible that they'll want to head into the playoffs with some momentum and rhythm, so playing the game to win makes sense, like it has done for the Giants recently.

- KC at Den. This is the longshot obviously. But KC ran for 300+ yards in their last game. I think Denver can be run on. If KC gets that ground game going, they can keep Peyton off the field and keep it close. Then one mistake by the Broncos could undo them. I don't see it happening and it's more likely that Denver wins by 20+ points, but still, there's a way for this to happen here.

Again, IMO, the big game (aside from NE's own game) is the Hou at Ind. If Ind wins, then the Pats, playing at 4:15, will know they have a chance for the bye. If they know that Hou has won, they could rest some starters. We'll see.

 

[everlong]

- Hou at Ind. Yes, Ind doesn't have anything to play for in terms of seeding, but they do have a lot to play for. Their HC is coming back, so they'll be emotionally fired-up. Hou has never beaten Indy in Indy. There's more motivation. Plus, it's possible that they'll want to head into the playoffs with some momentum and rhythm, so playing the game to win makes sense, like it has done for the Giants recently.

Again, IMO, the big game (aside from NE's own game) is the Hou at Ind. If Ind wins, then the Pats, playing at 4:15, will know they have a chance for the bye. If they know that Hou has won, they could rest some starters. We'll see.

They were trying to sell this on Sports Hub this morning and I just think given Indy's history of sitting the starters we'll see the same and that the emotional return of Pagano is over played. Granted new management so who knows. I grant you it's the most likely upset but I stil think it's a pipe dream.

 

[SVN]

Right now our own team is quite banged up esp on D so a win vs miami isnt certainly automatic esp when mia has nothing to lose here. Its kinda tricky to go all out for a win and not get it and then have to play next week.

 

[bigballas]

colts may not rest players....

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